2025年9月8日 集运日报 墨西哥迫于压力计划增加对华关税,南美航线或受影响,盘面或受消息影响,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损. | | | | 9月1日 | 9月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1773.60点，较上期下跌10.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1023.16点，较上期下跌6.83% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1013.90 点，较上期下跌2.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）855.93点，较上期下跌7.92% | | 9月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1338.34点，较上期下跌4.19% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1444.44 点，较上期下跌0.62点 | 9月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1315USD/TEU, 较上期下跌11.21% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1149.14点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2189USD/FEU, 较上期上 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 8 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-8） | | | | | 铁矿：2025-2026 年钢铁行业稳增长政策发布，文件中并未提到对于钢材 产量端的限制，铁矿价格表现相对较强。铁矿基本面矛盾不突出，9 月降 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 息概率大增，大宗商品或受到支撑。上周京津冀区域内钢厂"限产"结束， | | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 日均铁水产量高位大幅回落，本周有望逐步恢复。产业层面，铁矿全球发 | | | | | | 运环比小幅下滑，但目前疏港尚可的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求 | | | | | | 偏弱，钢厂盈利比例高位回落，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力依然不足，不排 | | | | | | 除后续旺季不旺，从而导致负反馈可能。短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预 | | | | | | 计跟随成材高位震荡运行。 | | | | | | 煤焦：基本面现实不断转弱，螺纹库存连续超季节性累库，焦煤矿山库存 | | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, near - month contracts are declining, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, with the composite PMI rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary values of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Markit manufacturing PMI in August were both 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 [4]. Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position trial long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target [5]. - On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihad Brigades" in the Gaza Strip [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously declining, near - month contracts are falling, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period. On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. Economic Indicators - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (forecast 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (forecast 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US tariffs are still extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target. On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihadist Brigade" in the Gaza Strip [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weakly [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On - hold [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Views - The steel industry's steady - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 doesn't limit steel production, focusing on industrial added - value. The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate at high levels. The coal - coke market is weakening, and the rolled steel and rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - The overall market is weakening, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices. Treasury bonds are trending weakly, and long positions should be held lightly. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to various factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Logs are expected to run weakly. Oils and fats are likely to oscillate, and meal products are expected to oscillate weakly. Live pigs are expected to see a slight price increase [6][7]. - Natural rubber is expected to remain strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and inventory decline. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester industry have different trends based on factors like supply - demand and cost [9]. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy doesn't limit production. The price is relatively strong, with limited fundamental contradictions. The expected reduction in daily hot - metal production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The supply remains high, and the total demand is difficult to show counter - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern hasn't improved significantly. The key lies in the cold - repair path, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock indices**: Most stock indices are in an oscillating state, with the CSI 1000 Index trending downward. The market is weakening, and risk control is recommended [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yields are fluctuating, and the market is trending weakly. Long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is small, the peak season expectation is uncertain, and the delivery willingness is weak. It is expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand is growing. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales conditions [6]. - **Meal products**: The market sentiment has worsened, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is decreasing, the slaughter rate is rising, and the price is expected to rise slightly [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Natural rubber**: The supply is tight, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to remain strong in the short - term [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Their trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment, with different performance and expectations [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, combined with the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the repeated Middle - East situation, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. - On September 3, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7 [2]. - The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli army is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts from 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Weak [2] - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Stock Index Futures/Options (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500)**: Oscillating; CSI 1000: Downward [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds (2 - year, 5 - year)**: Oscillating; 10 - year: Rebounding [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating strongly [4] - **Pulp**: Consolidating [6] - **Logs**: Weakly oscillating [6] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil)**: Oscillating [6] - **Meal (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2)**: Oscillating weakly; Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Rubber**: Oscillating [9] - **PX**: On - hold [9] - **PTA**: Oscillating [9] - **MEG**: On - hold [9] - **PR**: On - hold [9] - **PF**: On - hold [9] 2. Core Views - The steel industry's stable - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which boosts raw material sentiment. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions and are expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the black sector is expected to oscillate weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and it is expected to run weakly. The glass market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. The Shanghai property market's "Shanghai Six Measures" have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily. The bond market aims for stable and healthy development through the cooperation of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - The pulp market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but the rising space of pulp prices may be limited due to over - capacity. The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified, with prices expected to run weakly. The raw material supply of edible oils is relatively loose, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term. The meal market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The supply of live pigs is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly next week. The supply of rubber is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, with different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The stable - growth policy of the steel industry boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The "restricted production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment has declined slightly, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure under high port clearance [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The fundamentals are weak. The supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot demand is weak. The rebar 2601 contract is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The spot price in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key lies in the cold - repair path for the 01 contract. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. Different stock indexes have different trends, and sectors such as precious metals and power grids have capital inflows, while sectors such as diversified finance and aerospace and military industry have capital outflows [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Property Market**: The "Shanghai Six Measures" in the Shanghai property market have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily, which is expected to lead the recovery of the property market in first - and second - tier cities [4]. Precious Metals Industry - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports pulp prices, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rise, but the rising space may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified. The spot price is running weakly, and the delivery willingness is weak, with prices expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Edible Oils**: The raw material supply is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil products is increasing. The inventory situation of different oils varies, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price is expected to rise slightly next week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the approaching military parade in early September may have an impact on downstream operations [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price follows oil price fluctuations, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved. The MEG supply pressure is increasing, and the PR and PF markets are expected to run weakly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large fluctuations recently. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - losses should be set [1] - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Market Conditions - On September 3rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51); composite PMI was 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly test positions [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - Israel is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli military is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSC announced the National Day suspension plan, and the market rebounded significantly yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectation. Due to large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2] - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Freight Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7; the August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - The preliminary value of the US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continued, with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4] - On September 2, the main contract 2510 closed at 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers are advised to try going long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, don't hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] - Geopolitical conflicts include the Houthi rebels' attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea and explosions in multiple places in Syria [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - MSC announced a suspension plan for the National Day holiday, and the market rebounded sharply yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectations. Due to large recent fluctuations, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - Although the latest SCFIS index dropped significantly, the market quickly rose due to the intensification of the Middle - East situation and high bullish sentiment. Then, after some funds left the market, the market slightly declined and then fluctuated. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 2: Shipping Index Data SCFIS and NCFI - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period. On August 29, the NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Group 3: Economic Data Eurozone - In August, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), the preliminary composite PMI rose to 51.1 (higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] US - In August, the preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (39 - month high, estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (the highest since May 2022, expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [3] Group 4: Market and Trading Information Futures Market - On September 2, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, each contract follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [5] Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. On the night of September 1, there were explosions in multiple areas of Syria, including the western rural area of Daraa Province in the south, most blocks of Aleppo City in the north, and near Jableh City in Latakia Province in the west [6]