| 2025年12月12日 集运日报 | ( ( ) = CH = 12 ) | | --- | --- | | 现货运价企稳,盘面宽幅震荡,符合日报预期,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | 12月5日 | | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线) 1509.10点,较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 960.51点, 较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点,较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.80点,较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1449.34点,较上期上涨1.1% ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-12） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 线不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速 | | | | | 远超粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 修预期升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 地产相关政策传闻推动板块权益市场上行，当前终端现 | | | | | 实需求疲弱，铁水环比再降，港口库存高企，铁矿价格 | | | | | 回吐周三涨幅承压运行。实质改善需待明年旺季，策略 | | | | | 上，待补库兑现、情绪拉高后，依托年底成材高结转库 | | | | | 存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻找反弹抛空机会。 | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 煤焦：11 月蒙煤进口量有望创年内新高，短期焦煤供 | | | | | 应存在压力。国家发改委强调采暖季能源保供，降低了 | | | | | 市场对迎峰度冬期间煤炭行业出台新一轮反内卷措施 | | | | | 的预期。焦炭第二轮提降开启， ...

欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数据52.5, 继续稳定在荣枯分水岭50以上, 基本符合预期。服务业与制造业分化, 服务业PMI初值为 53.1, 不仅高于前值53, 而且优于预期值52.8, 录得一年半以来最佳月度表现。欧元区11月综合PMI初值为52.4, 较10月份的52.5轻微回落。 欧元 区12月Sentix投资者信心指数-6.2,预期-7,前值-7.4。 10月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降0.8个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。10月份,综合PMI产出指数为50.0%,比上 月下降0.6个百分点，位于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体稳定。 美国10月标普全球服务业PM1初值55.2,预期53.5, 前值54.2; 制造业PM1初值52.2,预期52, 前值52; 综合PM1初值54.8, 预期53.1, 前值53.9 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 建议主力合约轻仓试多,建议全部止盈,不建议继续补仓,不建议 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现 ...

主力合约收付全部跌幅，建议全部止盈，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 2025年12月11日 賃运日报 (航运研究小组) | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）972.63点，较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1024.64点，较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）881.66点，较上期下跌7.77% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1397.63 点，较上期下跌5.5点 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1121.80点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线155 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [3] - CSI 300: Oscillating [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year treasury bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [5] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [5] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Weak [8] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [10] - PX: Widely oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in the iron ore market remains unchanged, and the price will oscillate weakly. For coking coal and coke, there is short - term supply pressure, and prices have adjusted significantly. The downstream demand for rolled steel and spiral steel is weak, and prices are at the bottom. Glass demand is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress. In the financial sector, the Fed's interest - rate policy and market sentiment affect the performance of stock indexes and treasury bonds. Precious metals are supported by central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks. In the light - industry sector, logs and pulp prices are in an oscillating state due to supply - demand re - balancing. In the oil - and - oilseed sector, the demand for oils is uncertain, and the supply of meal is abundant. The live - pig market is weak, with possible further price declines. Rubber prices may oscillate weakly due to supply and demand factors. In the polyester sector, prices are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand [2][3][5][7][8][10] Summaries by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices will oscillate weakly. After the Fed's December meeting and the domestic economic - work conference, the macro - sentiment may improve, but substantial improvement will come in the peak season next year. Before the Spring Festival, restocking only provides support at the bottom. One should look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. The second round of coke price cuts has started. Although there is restocking demand before the year and coal mines may cut production at the end of the year, prices will find support at the bottom [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by more than 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively. Currently, prices are oscillating at the bottom [2] - Glass: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by more than 20% year - on - year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial Sector - Stock indexes: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's bullish sentiment has recovered. The mid - term trend continues, and the high - tech industry continues to grow [3] - Treasury bonds: The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and the market trend has a slight rebound. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a roll - over of 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: In the context of high interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors, while central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [5] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and national out - of - storage volumes have increased, but demand improvement needs further observation. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak due to the low profitability of the papermaking industry and high inventory of paper mills. Prices are expected to return to an oscillating state [7] - Double - offset paper: The spot - market price is stable. The supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders are conducive to paper - enterprise sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and short - term prices will remain oscillating [7] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: The demand for US soybeans for crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support and seasonal factors, oils are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose. The market has an increasing expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is cautious. With import - cost support, prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The national average trading weight of live pigs shows a north - up and south - down trend. The settlement price may decline further. The slaughter - enterprise opening rate has increased slightly. The supply is stable, and consumption has increased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising profit has decreased, and the profit from fattening piglets has increased. The weekly average price of live pigs may continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material prices in Yunnan are stable, and the production in Hainan is affected by weather, with a lower - than - expected output. The supply in Thailand has improved, and the supply in Vietnam is tight. Demand support is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Prices may oscillate weakly [10] Polyester - PX: The Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical tensions have led to an oil - price rebound. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and prices will oscillate widely [10] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the cost of PTA. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable. Prices will follow cost fluctuations [10] - MEG: There is long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. Prices will oscillate weakly [10] - PR: After the interest - rate cut, there is no new positive news, and the market may stop falling and stabilize [10] - PF: Although the terminal performance is average, the current price of polyester staple fiber is low, and prices may oscillate and consolidate [10][11]

2025年12月11日 賃运日报 (航运研究小组) 主力合约收付全部跌幅，建议全部止盈，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 "，并强烈谴责其将联合国工作人员移交特别刑事法院的做法。他强调，包括也门籍员工在内的联合国工作人员，在履行公务所涉行为方面依法享有司法豁 免权。发言人说，"我们敦促也门胡塞武装撤回相关移交决定，并立即释放所有被拘押的联合国、非政府组织和外交人员"。 (央视新闻) 财联社12月9日电，据新华社报道，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰版抗运动（哈马斯）高级官员胡萨姆·巴德兰9日发表声明说，关于加沙停火第二阶段的任何讨论，都必 须以谈判斡旋方、美国及所有相关方对以色列施压，以确保第一阶段协议所有条款全面落实为前提。声明驳斥了以军方近日关于"黄线"是加沙地带"新边 界"的说法，表示这番言论暴露了以色列未能遵守停火协议条款的事实。声明说，以色列仍阻止加沙地带南部拉法口岸双向通行，阻挠为加沙地带流离失所 者准备的帐篷进入，削减进入加沙地带的人道主义援助物资数量，同时继续在加沙地带条数。声明说，只要以色列继续违反协议，加沙停火第二阶段就不可 能启动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 SCF ...

2025年12月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多头情绪较强，多空博弈下盘面偏强震荡,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 960.51点, 较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].

2025年12月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多头情绪较强，多空博弈下盘面偏强震荡,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 960.51点, 较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28%。 ...

2025年12月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.8 ...