Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The core issue lies in the direction of spot freight rates, with the tariff issue showing a marginal effect. The main contract has seen a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - The short - term strategy for freight rate trends is that the logic returns to traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. For risk - takers, it is advised to close all positions in the main contract, not to add more positions or hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [2]. - In the context of international turmoil, the contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts reach a high point, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [1]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1]. - On December 8, the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in business production and operation activities [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in December was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [1]. Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, with a gain of 2.04%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weakening [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [6] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating strongly [8] - Offset paper: Oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [9] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [9] - Live pigs: Weakening [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The main trend of the iron ore market remains "loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories". The price of iron ore will oscillate weakly, and there may be opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The supply of coking coal and coke faces short - term pressure, and the prices are weakening. However, there is support at the bottom [2]. - The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is oscillating. The steel price depends on production cuts and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The price of glass is weakening, and its future trend depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The central economic work conference sets a tone for next year's economic policy. The stock index futures market shows different trends, and the bond market is consolidating [4]. - The price of gold is oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, etc. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - The log market has weak demand and is oscillating at the bottom. The pulp market is oscillating strongly, affected by cost and demand [6][8]. - The price of edible oils is trading in a range, affected by factors such as demand, inventory, and production [8]. - The price of soybean meal and related products is oscillating, affected by factors such as global supply, trade, and domestic demand [8][9]. - The price of live pigs is weakening, with stable supply and limited terminal - demand growth [9]. - The price of rubber is oscillating weakly, with supply affected by weather and demand not strong enough [11]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the price oscillates weakly. There may be opportunities to short on rebounds after restocking [2]. - **Coal and coke**: In November, Mongolian coal imports are expected to reach a new high this year. The second round of coke price cuts has started. The prices are weakening, but there is support at the bottom [2]. - **Rebar**: Downstream demand is low, and the winter - storage restocking has not started. The price is oscillating, and the core lies in steel demand [2]. - **Glass**: The price is weakening. The processing orders are sluggish. The inventory is decreasing but still higher than the same period last year. The future trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The central economic work conference emphasizes positive fiscal and monetary policies. The stock index shows different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as industry capital flow and economic policies [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a net capital withdrawal [4]. - **Automobile and real estate**: In November, automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicles had strong growth. In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected, and the decline in the new - commodity - housing sales area is expected to narrow [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Their prices are oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, "de - dollarization", geopolitical risks, and increased physical - gold demand in China. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The port shipment volume and national出库 volume have increased, but the demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [6][8]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is rising, and the cost support is increasing. However, the demand is not strong, and the price may return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of positive news [8]. - **Offset paper**: The spot price is stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible oils**: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties. The palm - oil inventory in Malaysia is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. The price is expected to trade in a range [8]. - **Soybean meal and related products**: The global soybean supply is loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand has support but also has problems. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The terminal - demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to decline further [9]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand is not strong enough, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. Polyester - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is boosted. The price is in wide - range oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: The cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term trend is weak. The price follows the cost [11]. - **MEG**: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly oscillating [11]. - **PR and PF**: PR may stop falling and stabilize, and PF is at a low - price level [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates have stabilized, and the market is filled with optimistic sentiment. Amid the tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the market shows wide - range fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The issue of Sino - US tariffs has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period [1] - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1] - On December 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI US West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1] Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation of Chinese enterprises [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector and manufacturing sector showed a divergence, with the preliminary value of the service sector PMI at 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers who had been advised to try long positions with a light position in the main contract are now advised to take all profits, not to add positions, not to hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses. The logic of freight rate trends still returns to traditional seasonality and when shipping routes in the Red Sea will resume. Currently, spot prices have slightly decreased [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [2] - Long - term strategy: It has been advised to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent situation [2] Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, up 2.04%, with a trading volume of 18,700 lots and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2] - The price limit for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 18% [2] - The company's margin for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 28% [2] - The intraday opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [2] Geopolitical Events - On December 9 local time, the UN Secretary - General's spokesman expressed "deep shock and serious concern" over the Yemeni Houthi rebels' continued arbitrary detention of a large number of international agency personnel and strongly condemned their practice of handing over UN staff to a special criminal court. He called on the Houthi rebels to withdraw the relevant hand - over decision and immediately release all detained UN, non - governmental organization, and diplomatic personnel [3] - On December 9, Hamas senior official Hussam Badran stated that any discussion about the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza must be based on the negotiation mediators, the US, and all relevant parties pressuring Israel to ensure the full implementation of all terms of the first - stage agreement. He refuted the Israeli military's claim that the "yellow line" is the "new border" in the Gaza Strip, saying that such remarks exposed Israel's non - compliance with the cease - fire agreement. As long as Israel continues to violate the agreement, the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza cannot be launched [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract has recovered all losses, and full profit - taking is recommended, in line with the daily report's expectations. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival shipping market, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - After the market oscillates upward, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [4]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects Freight Rate Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period, and the SCFI US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [3]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in Chinese enterprises' production and business activities. The US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, all higher than expected [4]. Main Contract Information - On December 10, the main contract 2602 closed at 1665.2, with a gain of 3.41%, a trading volume of 35,900 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 669 lots from the previous day [4]. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers are advised to take full profit, not to add positions, not to hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Rules Adjustment - The daily limit and daily loss limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical News - On December 9 (local time), the UN Secretary - General's spokesman expressed "deep shock and serious concern" about the Houthi rebels' detention of a large number of international agency personnel in Yemen and strongly condemned the transfer of UN staff to a special criminal court, urging the Houthi rebels to withdraw the transfer decision and release all detained personnel [6]. - A senior Hamas official stated on the 9th that any discussion about the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza must be based on the negotiation mediators, the US, and all relevant parties pressuring Israel to fully implement all terms of the first - stage agreement. As long as Israel continues to violate the agreement, the second - stage cease - fire cannot be initiated [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [3] - CSI 300: Oscillating [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year treasury bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [5] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [5] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Weak [8] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [10] - PX: Widely oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in the iron ore market remains unchanged, and the price will oscillate weakly. For coking coal and coke, there is short - term supply pressure, and prices have adjusted significantly. The downstream demand for rolled steel and spiral steel is weak, and prices are at the bottom. Glass demand is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress. In the financial sector, the Fed's interest - rate policy and market sentiment affect the performance of stock indexes and treasury bonds. Precious metals are supported by central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks. In the light - industry sector, logs and pulp prices are in an oscillating state due to supply - demand re - balancing. In the oil - and - oilseed sector, the demand for oils is uncertain, and the supply of meal is abundant. The live - pig market is weak, with possible further price declines. Rubber prices may oscillate weakly due to supply and demand factors. In the polyester sector, prices are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand [2][3][5][7][8][10] Summaries by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices will oscillate weakly. After the Fed's December meeting and the domestic economic - work conference, the macro - sentiment may improve, but substantial improvement will come in the peak season next year. Before the Spring Festival, restocking only provides support at the bottom. One should look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. The second round of coke price cuts has started. Although there is restocking demand before the year and coal mines may cut production at the end of the year, prices will find support at the bottom [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by more than 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively. Currently, prices are oscillating at the bottom [2] - Glass: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by more than 20% year - on - year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial Sector - Stock indexes: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's bullish sentiment has recovered. The mid - term trend continues, and the high - tech industry continues to grow [3] - Treasury bonds: The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and the market trend has a slight rebound. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a roll - over of 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: In the context of high interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors, while central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [5] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and national out - of - storage volumes have increased, but demand improvement needs further observation. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak due to the low profitability of the papermaking industry and high inventory of paper mills. Prices are expected to return to an oscillating state [7] - Double - offset paper: The spot - market price is stable. The supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders are conducive to paper - enterprise sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and short - term prices will remain oscillating [7] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: The demand for US soybeans for crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support and seasonal factors, oils are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose. The market has an increasing expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is cautious. With import - cost support, prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The national average trading weight of live pigs shows a north - up and south - down trend. The settlement price may decline further. The slaughter - enterprise opening rate has increased slightly. The supply is stable, and consumption has increased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising profit has decreased, and the profit from fattening piglets has increased. The weekly average price of live pigs may continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material prices in Yunnan are stable, and the production in Hainan is affected by weather, with a lower - than - expected output. The supply in Thailand has improved, and the supply in Vietnam is tight. Demand support is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Prices may oscillate weakly [10] Polyester - PX: The Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical tensions have led to an oil - price rebound. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and prices will oscillate widely [10] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the cost of PTA. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable. Prices will follow cost fluctuations [10] - MEG: There is long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. Prices will oscillate weakly [10] - PR: After the interest - rate cut, there is no new positive news, and the market may stop falling and stabilize [10] - PF: Although the terminal performance is average, the current price of polyester staple fiber is low, and prices may oscillate and consolidate [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract has recovered all its losses, and it is recommended to take full profits, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival shipping market, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates. The core of the freight rate trend lies in traditional seasonality and when shipping resumes in the Red Sea, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][4] - After the market fluctuates upward, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Indexes - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European line was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [3] - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving its best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities. The preliminary value of the US's October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On December 10, the main contract 2602 closed at 1665.2, up 3.41%, with a trading volume of 35,900 lots and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 669 lots from the previous day [4] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers are advised to go long with a light position on the main contract, take full profits, not add more positions, not hold on to losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [5] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bullish sentiment is strong. Under the long - short game, the market is oscillating strongly. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1,509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1,024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1,397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1,400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 1,550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1,449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global service industry PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] 3.3 Market and Contract Information - On December 9, the main contract 2602 closed at 1,619.8, up 1.17%, with a trading volume of 19,000 lots and an open interest of 30,700 lots, a decrease of 753 lots from the previous day [3] - The trading limits of contracts from 2508 to 2606 were adjusted to 18%; the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%; the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [4] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to try a light position in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losing positions, and stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is experiencing a strong long - sentiment. Amid the long - short game, the market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rates have no significant fluctuations [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The market is in a long - short game. The SCFIS has a slight upward movement, indicating an optimistic attitude towards the February freight rate increase. The market is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast - 8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level declining. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. Contract Information - On December 9, the main contract 2602 closed at 1619.8, up 1.17%, with a trading volume of 19,000 lots and an open interest of 30,700 lots, a decrease of 753 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to take a light - position trial long on the main contract. When the market dives slightly, it is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for a pullback and stabilization before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Situation - Israel plans to ensure the return of the remains of the last detained person, promote the second - stage ceasefire in Gaza, aiming for the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza. Hamas is willing to discuss disarmament within the framework of establishing a Palestinian state, proposing a 5 - to 10 - year long - term ceasefire for negotiation. Hamas welcomes UN forces to monitor the ceasefire near the Gaza border but does not accept their authorization to act within Palestinian territories [5].

2025年12月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.8 ...