2025年9月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续大幅下行，叠加资金出逃，盘面宽幅震荡，建议空仓过节控制风险，设置好止损，国庆快乐! | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 9月29日 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1120.49点, 较上期下跌10.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 717.36点, 较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 921.25点, 较上期下跌22.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 614.14点, 较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 868.22点, 较上期下跌8.11% 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点,较上期下跌83.69点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1087.41点,较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格971USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.70%% ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-30） 交易提示 2 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | 金 | | | 1.09%，中证 500 股收录 1.51%，中证 1000 股收录 1.36%。券商、贵金属 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 融 | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 板块资金流入，教育、煤炭板块资金流出。中共中央政治局召开会议，研 | | | | | 究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问题。会议决定，二十 | | | | | 届四中全会于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。会议强调，"十五五"时 | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 期经济社会发展必须坚持高质量发展，以新发展理念引领发展，因地制宜 | | | | | 发展新质生产力，推动经济持续健康发展和社会全面进步；坚持全面深化 | | | | | 改革，扩大高水平开放，持续增强发展动力和社会活力；坚持有效市场和 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [2]. d. Market Conditions and Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long at around 1600 for the 12 and 02 contracts. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold positions stubbornly. Set stop - losses [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [2]. e. Contract - related Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 1.67 million lots and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe route is at 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period[3] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index is at 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period[3] - SCFIS for the US West route is at 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period[3] - NCFI for the US West route is at 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period[3] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.5, above the expected 49.5 and previous 49.8[4] - Eurozone August Services PMI preliminary value is 50.7, slightly below the expected 50.8 and previous 51[4] - Eurozone August Composite PMI preliminary value rises to 51.1, the highest since May 2024, improving for three consecutive months[4] Market Strategy - It is advised not to increase positions and to set stop-loss orders due to significant price fluctuations in the market[2] - The main contract closed at 1173.0 with a rise of 3.99% on September 25, with a trading volume of 389,000 lots[5] - The market is currently in a bottoming process, suggesting a cautious approach to trading and monitoring future price movements[5]

美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，至39个月高点，预估为49.5，前值为49.8。美国8月标普全球服务业PM1初值为55.4，预估为54.2，前值 为55.7。美国8月Markit制造业PMI初值53.3，为2022年5月以来最高水平，预期49.7，前值49.8。 2025年9月26日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK宣涨10月下旬运价,盘面显著上行,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 783.71点, 较上期下跌13.24% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 673.61点, 较上期下跌7.65% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 944.89点, 较上期下跌23.30% | | 9月19日 | 9月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst the long - short game, the market is in the bottom - building process. It's not advisable to increase positions further, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted the sentiment of long - positions to some extent, but the market pulled back after the morning surge due to capital withdrawal, showing a generally strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1198.21 points on September 19, down 199.90 points from the previous period. Its European - line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; the US - West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase. The trading volume was 24,680 lots, and the open interest was 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. It's recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has made no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [5]. - The United Nations investigation committee stated on September 23 that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over the Gaza Strip and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. In July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - On September 24, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued a plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a bottom - building process under the game of long and short positions. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be at the bottom - building stage. It is advisable to participate with a light position or just observe [1][3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase, a trading volume of 24,680 lots, and an open interest of 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices may have boosted the bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after rising due to capital withdrawal in the afternoon, showing a strong - side volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The extension of Sino - US tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, and the ship and crew were safe [5]. - The United Nations stated that Israel intends to permanently control the Gaza Strip, and in July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].