1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "weak" or "weak and volatile"; rebar is in a "volatile state". [2] - **Financial Sector**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "volatile"; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; the 10 - year treasury bond is rated as "downward". [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rated as "strong and volatile"; logs are rated as "bottoming out and volatile". [4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp, double - offset paper, and logs are rated as "volatile"; paper pulp is rated as "volatile and returning". [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are rated as "weak and volatile". [7][8] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs are rated as "weak". [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "weak and volatile". [10] - **Polyester**: PX is rated as "widely volatile"; PTA is rated as "volatile"; MEG is rated as "weakly volatile"; PR and PF are rated as "wait - and - see". [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main line of the iron ore market in 2026 is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory build - up". With new global mine production increasing and real - time demand weak, prices are expected to be weak and volatile. For coal coke, there are pressures on supply and expectations of price cuts, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - volatile state, and the key to price stabilization lies in production cuts and anti - "involution" policies. [2] - The central government's economic work plan for 2026 emphasizes a series of policies, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The high - tech industry is growing, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield shows a downward trend. [3] - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The short - term impact comes from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. [4] - Logs' demand improvement needs further observation, and the pulp market's supply and demand are in a re - balancing process. The price trends of various paper products are mainly volatile. [7] - The demand outlook for oils and fats is uncertain, with supply remaining abundant. The price of soybean meal and related products is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as US soybean supply and South American weather. [7][8] - The pig market has a stable supply, but terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. [8] - The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The polyester market has different trends for different products, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing, plate inventory is high, and steel mill maintenance is expected to increase. Although macro - sentiment may warm up, real improvement depends on the peak season next year. After the stock - replenishment and sentiment boost, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. [2] - **Coal Coke**: Some coke enterprises have turned profitable, but steel mills are still in the red. November's Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high, and there is supply pressure. The first round of coke price cuts in December has landed, and there are still expectations for further cuts. However, there is support at the bottom due to downstream stock - replenishment demand and coal production reduction expectations. [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Steel demand is weak, and the winter stock - replenishment has not started. The key to steel price stabilization is whether the production cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 can exceed 5% and the implementation of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in a bottom - volatile state. [2] - **Glass**: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still higher than the same period last year. The key to price stabilization lies in cold - repair progress and macro - factors. [2][3] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The central government emphasizes a series of economic policies for 2026. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the high - tech industry is growing. The performance of different stock indexes varies, and some sectors show capital inflows or outflows. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond is flat, and the market shows a small - amplitude rebound. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the net investment is positive. [3] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases being the key. Factors such as the US debt problem, high - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors. The market has a high expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. [4] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at ports has increased, but the demand improvement needs further observation. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the expected arrival volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot market price is stable. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp price increasing. However, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to return to a volatile state. [7] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price is stable, the supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders help with sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and the price is expected to remain volatile. [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The demand for US soybean crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October exceeded expectations, and exports in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and demand from the catering industry is weak. With cost support, the price is expected to be range - bound. [7] - **Meals**: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. Brazilian soybeans have an advantage in export price. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and demand from the breeding industry is cautious. The price is expected to be weak and volatile. [7][8] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend. The terminal demand growth is limited, and the settlement price may decline further. The slaughtering rate has increased, but the profit of self - breeding and self - raising has decreased, and that of piglet fattening has increased. The overall price is expected to decline. [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand support is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. [10] Polyester - **PX**: With the resumption of oil production in Iraq, oil prices have declined. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and the PXN spread is temporarily stable. The price is widely volatile. [10] - **PTA**: The cost side is unstable due to oil price fluctuations. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, the industry will weaken seasonally, and the price is expected to follow the cost side. [10] - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. The price is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is weakening. [10] - **PR and PF**: The polyester bottle - chip market is expected to be weak due to low oil prices and weak terminal demand. The short - fiber market price may be weakly sorted due to low prices, weak demand, and weakening cost support. [10]

中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 2025年12月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱 ...

2025年12月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司宣涨1月运价，盘面偏强震荡，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月1日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1483.65点，较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 962.38点, 较上期下跌1.05% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 967.55点, 较上期下跌5.57% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1114.89点,较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-8） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量环比增加 44.7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 万吨至 3323.2 万吨。47 港外矿到港量环比减少 155.5 | | | | | 万吨至 2784 万吨。日均铁水产量环比继续回落 2.38 万 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 吨至 232.3 万吨，限制铁矿反弹空间。需求核心仍在地 | | | | | 产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。港 | | | | | 口铁矿石库存小幅回升，处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需 | | | | | 过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模 | | | | | 或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利润以及累库水平还不足 | | | | | 以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高位调 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 整。 | | | | | 煤焦：12 月 1 日焦炭首轮提降落地，市场仍有提降预 | | ...

2025年12月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 | | --- | | 建议主力合约轻仓试多，盘面小幅跳水，不建议继续补仓，不建议 | | 扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略：国际局势动荡背景下，各合约仍保持季节性逻辑，波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 | | 方向 | | 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 | | 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 | | 日内开仓限制: 2508-2606所有合约为100手。 | 财联社12月4日电，以色列国防军当地时间3日发布声明称，当天早些时候，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）武装组织在加沙地带拉法地区公然 违反停火协议，武装人员袭击了正在当地部署的以色列军队，造成5名士兵受伤。声明指出，作为回应，以军在情报部门的指引下，在加沙地带南部 对一名哈马斯成员实施了空袭。声明强调，以军部队仍按照停火协议部署，并将继续采取行动，消除任何直接威胁。（央视新闻) 班轮公司宣涨1月运价，盘面偏强震荡，已建议 ...

2025年12月5日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 12月1日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 11月28日 11月28日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13点,较上期上涨9.57点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1404USD/TEU,较上期上涨2.71% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1449.34点,较上期上涨1.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [7][8] - Offset paper: Oscillation [8] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8][9] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - No. 2 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - No. 1 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - Live pigs: Strong - biased oscillation [9] - Rubber: Oscillation [10][11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillation [11] - MEG: Weak oscillation [11] - PR: Wait - and - see [11] - PF: Wait - and - see [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, with limited upward momentum for prices in the high - level range. The coal - coke market has a weak demand but short - term support at low levels. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the glass market's future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors. In the financial market, the short - term adjustment is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic. The precious metals market is supported by long - term factors, with short - term disturbances from interest rate policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The light industry products like logs and pulp have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. The oilseeds and oils market is expected to continue range - bound operation, and the agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has specific supply - demand and price trends. The soft commodities and polyester products also have their own price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 3.3232 billion tons, while the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 155.5 million tons to 2.784 billion tons. Daily hot - metal production dropped by 23,800 tons to 2.323 million tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventory slightly increased to an 8 - month high. The oversupply pattern is hard to reverse, and although the probability of short - term negative feedback is low, the price oscillates in the high - level range with limited upward momentum [2] - **Coal and coke**: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. After continuous declines, the valuation of coking coal and coke has become reasonable and stopped falling this week. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Some domestic coal mines are affected by safety inspections, with a slight decline in the weekly operating rate. The profit of some coking enterprises has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises has intensified. There is still a need for inventory replenishment in the short term, providing support at low levels [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and winter - storage replenishment has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Steel prices may stop falling if the output is reduced by more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anti - involution policies are effectively implemented. Currently, the price is expected to remain at the bottom, with no significant change in supply and demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - **Glass**: There are supply - side disturbances. It is expected that three production lines in Hubei will undergo cold - repair in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and the futures price is running weakly. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises has decreased, reaching the lowest level since October. The real - estate completion decline has dragged down demand, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress and macro factors [2][3] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 Index up 0.34%, the SSE 50 Index up 0.38%, the CSI 500 Index up 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index up 0.01%. There was capital inflow in the engineering machinery and semiconductor sectors and capital outflow in the catering, tourism, and retail sectors. There are various exchanges and communications between Chinese and American enterprises and organizations, and relevant policies and statements are also involved. The market is in short - term adjustment, but the medium - term trend is optimistic, with the high - tech industry continuing to grow [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2bps, FR007 rose by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 4th, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. The spot - bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the dollar's credit, highlighting gold's de - fiat - currency attribute. In a high - interest - rate environment, gold's substitution effect for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and China's physical - gold demand support the price. The logic behind the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, with short - term disturbances from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, and factors such as non - farm data and inflation data also affect the market [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it shows a strong - biased oscillation trend, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, risk - aversion sentiment, and economic data [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports last week was 613,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters but decreased last week. The volume of New Zealand's logs shipped to China in October increased by 2% compared to the previous month, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% from the previous month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. The port inventory decreased by 600,000 cubic meters. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price of 4/6 - meter medium - grade A logs has decreased. The supply pressure has improved, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs and weak cost support. The price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [4][7][8] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price continued to show a strong trend in the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood - pulp spot markets rising by 20 - 150 yuan/ton and that of hardwood - pulp by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp remained at $680/ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure, with low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is weak, and although traders have raised their quotes, downstream procurement is rational. The price is expected to return to oscillation [7][8] - **Double - offset paper**: The spot - market price stabilized in the previous trading day. The production of double - offset paper is expected to be stable, with little change in the supply side. The publication tenders are basically over, and orders are expected to increase, which is beneficial for paper - enterprise sales. Large - scale paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price may be raised at the beginning of the month. The price is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by the expected production reduction due to floods in Southeast Asia and the postponement of EU policies. A large amount of soybeans are arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and although the oil inventory has decreased, the supply is abundant. The demand may gradually pick up, and with cost support, the oil market is expected to continue range - bound operation, with attention paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production - sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [8] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending inventory have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply is still relatively abundant. The Sino - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian ones, and the US biodiesel policy is uncertain, resulting in uncertain demand prospects. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is generally favorable, while that in the Argentinean area is uneven. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is high, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and although the demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, the breeding efficiency is poor, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the progress of Sino - US trade [8][9] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs nationwide is 124.62 kg, and it is showing a downward trend in most provinces this week. Due to the lag in the monthly slaughter progress, breeding enterprises are accelerating sales, increasing the supply of live pigs. Retail farmers are mainly slaughtering large - weight pigs, which do not fully match market demand. Slaughtering enterprises are more inclined to purchase from large - scale farms, leading to a slight decrease in the trading weight, which may continue to decline slightly in the next week. The average settlement price of live pigs at key slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 12.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous period. The settlement price is continuously falling. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 38.92%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from last week. The supply of live pigs is generally abundant, and with the temperature drop, the terminal consumption has slightly recovered, increasing the orders of slaughtering enterprises and supporting the slight increase in the operating rate. However, the operating rate is expected to weaken next week. The profitability of self - breeding and piglet - fattening has decreased, and the decline in breeding costs is less than that in sales revenue. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: In the Yunnan rubber - producing area, the weather is average, and the raw - material price is stable, with the factory price increase driving up the raw - material price. In Hainan, the weather is good this week, but the output has decreased due to temperature. Affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, the overall glue output is lower than the same period in previous years. The production and purchase costs of local processing plants have slightly increased, providing support for the price. In Thailand, there is a lot of rain, and the average weekly price has reached 57 Thai baht/kg, with both the glue and cup - lump prices rising. In Vietnam, the raw - material supply in the southern area is gradually recovering, while other areas are still affected by rainfall. The total inventory is at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week due to short - term maintenance plans in some enterprises, but it will gradually recover. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.35 million and 3.32 million vehicles respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase and a record - high year - on - year increase. The natural - rubber inventory is increasing significantly, with the total social inventory reaching 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are accumulating inventory, and it is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The weakening of raw - material procurement prices and the inventory - accumulation trend suppress price increases, and with weak demand - side support, the natural - rubber price is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [10][11] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical instability has led to supply risks, and with the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December, oil prices have rebounded. The current PX supply is high, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, which is beneficial for PX demand. The PXN price difference is temporarily stable, and the PX price is oscillating widely [11] - **PTA**: The wide - range oscillation of oil prices has affected the PX end, causing the cost of PTA to loosen. Although the short - term supply - demand situation of PTA has improved, the industry's seasonal weakness is inevitable, and the supply - demand situation will deteriorate in the future. The processing margin is still low, and the spot price is expected to mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [11] - **MEG**: In the long - term, the inventory - accumulation pressure of MEG still exists, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in some supplies. Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply side. As the port inventory increases, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the MEG spot basis has weakened. In the short term, the MEG price is expected to oscillate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [11] - **PR**: The terminal performance remains weak, and the order - taking pressure of factories and traders has increased. With weak raw - material support, the polyester - bottle - chip market may oscillate weakly [11] - **PF**: The upward trend of oil prices continues, and the current supply - demand structure of polyester staple fiber is acceptable. However, the market is in a wait - and - see state [11]

2025年12月5日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 12月1日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 11月28日 11月28日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13点,较上期上涨9.57点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1404USD/TEU,较上期上涨2.71% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1449.34点,较上期上涨1.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

2025年12月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场多空博弈，盘面宽幅震荡, 已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 | 12月1日 | II FZOD | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点,较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13 点,较上期上涨9.57点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1404USD/TEU, 较上期上涨2.71% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile and weakening [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [4] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [10] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Wide - range volatile [12] - PTA: Volatile [12] - MEG: Weakly volatile [12] - PR: Hold and observe [12] - PF: Hold and observe [12] Core Views - The overall situation of the black industry shows an oversupply pattern, with weak domestic demand, and prices are mainly in a volatile state. The financial market has short - term adjustments but a positive medium - term trend. Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The forestry and paper industry has weak demand and supply pressures are gradually easing. The oil and oilseed market has uncertain demand prospects and supply is relatively abundant. The agricultural product market has supply - demand imbalances, and the soft commodity market has price fluctuations affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][4][5][7][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, daily average hot metal production dropped by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at 2005 levels. Port iron ore inventory rose slightly, reaching an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and prices are in high - level volatility [2] - Coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After continuous declines, valuations are reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. There are concerns about supply resumption, but steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, providing short - term support at low levels [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at 2005 levels. Steel prices depend on strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the implementation strength of anti - "involution" policies, and are currently in bottom - level volatility [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances, with rumors of postponed cold - repairs. Float glass inventory decreased, but real - estate completion decline drags down demand. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Energy equipment and motorcycle sectors had capital inflows, while forestry and Internet sectors had outflows. China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The market is in short - term adjustment but has a positive medium - term trend [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1bp, and the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. Bond prices had a small - scale rebound [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting to central - bank gold purchases. It has strong currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes. The current logic for the price increase remains unchanged, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term disturbances. Silver also has a volatile and bullish trend [4][6] Forestry and Paper - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment volume decreased by 0.31 million cubic meters to 6.13 million cubic meters. In October, the volume of New Zealand logs shipped to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. Port inventory decreased by 6 million cubic meters. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot prices continued to be strong, with some prices of softwood and hardwood pulp rising. The latest foreign prices of softwood pulp remained stable, and hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has strengthened, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to return to volatility [5] - Offset paper: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. Production is expected to be stable, and orders are expected to increase. Large - scale paper enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and prices are expected to be volatile [5] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high, but the U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and exports in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by flood - induced production - reduction expectations and EU policy delays. Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and oil inventories are sufficient. Overall, oil prices are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been reduced, but the global supply is still relatively abundant. Sino - U.S. trade agreements may promote U.S. exports, but U.S. soybean prices are higher than Brazil's. Brazilian and Argentine soybean growing conditions are mixed. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. Demand is supported by high livestock inventories, but feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is showing a downward trend. Supply has increased due to farmers' accelerated sales, while demand is limited, causing settlement prices to decline. Slaughter - enterprise operating rates increased slightly but are expected to weaken next week. Pig - raising profitability has decreased, and the average weekly price is expected to continue to fall [10] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable; in Hainan, output has decreased due to temperature. Thai raw - material prices rose, and Vietnamese supply is gradually recovering. Total inventory is low. Tire - enterprise capacity utilization decreased but will gradually recover. Automobile production and sales increased in October. Natural rubber inventory is in a significant accumulation phase, and prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility [12] - PX: In the long - term, crude - oil supply exceeds demand, and recent geopolitical factors have caused oil prices to rebound slightly. PX supply is high, but downstream polyester demand has increased, and PX prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the PX end, and PTA's cost is unstable. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but seasonal weakening is inevitable. Processing margins are low, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [12] - MEG: There is still long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, but the near - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. As port inventory rises, spot basis weakens, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12] - PR: Local supply is tight, and cost support remains. The polyester bottle - chip market may stop falling and stabilize [12] - PF: Oil - price increases and low factory inventories are favorable, but terminal orders are insufficient. The short - fiber market is expected to have limited fluctuations [12][13]