Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market atmosphere is bearish with significant drops in commodities, and the market is oscillating weakly with large recent fluctuations. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Market Conditions - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route on July 28 was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [2]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26%; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points; the European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [2]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, with a decline of 4.66%, a trading volume of 46,300 lots, and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, the same as April, back above the critical point [2]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2]. Policy and Geopolitical Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market had a slight rebound [3]. - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations. On the same day, Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israeli targets, and Israel submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "High - level Volatility"; Rebar (RB2601) and Iron Ore (I2601) suggest a strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are rated as "Volatility"; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Volatility" (10 - year is "Decline"); Gold is rated as "High - level Volatility"; Silver is rated as "High - level Decline" [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Correction"; Logs are rated as "Volatility"; Oils and Fats (including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) are rated as "Volatility with an Uptrend Bias"; Meal (including soybean meal and rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Volatility" [5] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Volatility with a Downtrend Bias" [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Volatility"; PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See" [10][11][12] 2. Core Views - The overall performance of the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, which may lead to a continued weakening of market trading enthusiasm. Policy - related production cuts and restrictions in the future need to be closely watched [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the second half of the year, and to promote investment and consumption [4] - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies [4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Although recent arrivals have declined, they are expected to rebound seasonally. Iron ore fundamentals are currently stable, but there are risks of policy - driven production cuts and restrictions. A strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" is recommended [2] - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the trading limit for coking coal due to recent sharp price increases. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources has decreased. Coke has seen four consecutive rounds of price increases, and there is an expectation of a fifth round [2] - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, building material demand has declined, and steel inventories have started to rise from a low level. The short - term steel industry still has expectations of stable growth, and the same "Long RB2601, Short I2601" strategy is recommended [2] - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and market sentiment has improved, leading to increased downstream stocking. However, real - estate demand is still weak, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting emphasized efforts to achieve annual goals. Market upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates have rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics. Although there are short - term pressures, the upward - driving logic has not reversed. Silver has declined due to factors such as the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision and hawkish remarks [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp has decreased, and the paper - making industry's demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation is weak, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6] - **Logs**: Log demand is in the off - season, but furniture exports are favorable. The cost of logs is rising, and supply pressure is not significant. Log prices are expected to remain stable with some volatility [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and demand is recovering. Domestic oil inventories are increasing. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and palm oil production and sales [6] - **Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support, and soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean No.1**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply of live pigs is increasing. High - temperature weather restricts consumption demand, and slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to decline slightly, with pig prices likely to fall week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and the Thai - Cambodian conflict, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber inventories at Qingdao Port are decreasing, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm [10][11] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX supply is tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices. PTA supply recovery is slow, and demand is weakening. MEG supply pressure is increasing. PR and PF are facing cost and demand challenges, and all are in a wait - and - see situation [10][11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and a weak and volatile market. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1][3]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The market fundamentals are relatively stable, but the overall sentiment is bearish, possibly due to capital outflows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the service - sector PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [2]. 3.3 Policy and Market Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with a small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the 2510 contract at below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300) and partially take profits; short on the EC2512 contract with a light position, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Other Events - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations [5]. - On July 30 evening local time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked three targets in Israel with five drones, and Israel did not respond [5]. - An Israeli senior official submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation mediation party on July 29 evening, and Hamas did not respond [5].

2025年7月31日 第运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸会议平稳结束，盘面冲高回落，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 SCFIS. NCFI运价指数 分 字目行榜 Hou 以色列的本-古里安国际机场，导致机场运营中断。以色列国防军发表声明称，当天稍早时成功拦截了一枚由也门胡塞武装发射的弹道导弹。目前暂无人员 六中场 伤亡或财产损失的报告。 财联社7月30日电，周三的数据显示，德国经济在第二季委输了0.1%，与第一季0.4%的增长形成对比，主要原因是美国需求放缓，此前几个月由于预期美 国将提高关税，进口南大量采购德国商品。德国统计局表示，第二季的投资出现下降，但与前三个月相比，消费与政府支出则有所上升。 XL, by 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油副烈波动 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集表相指数 SCEISBA SCHIRGE -EC2510 -EC2512 -EC2602 -EC2604 -EC2606 -SCFIS指数(石油) 12,000.00 6,100 10,000.00 5,600 5,100 8,000.00 4,600 4,100 6,000.00 3,600 3,100 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff hikes, and high negotiation difficulty, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract, partially take profits, and take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, paying attention to subsequent market trends and setting stop - losses [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [3]. - On July 30, the main contract 2510 closed at 1468.7, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 66,300 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, an increase of 4148 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, expected to be 49.8, the same as the previous value; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, expected to be 50.5, the same as the previous value; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected to be - 6, higher than the previous value of - 8.1 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, back above the critical point [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [3]. Policy and Event Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases [4]. - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a slight price increase [4]. - The China - US economic and trade talks ended. It was stated that the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that had been suspended and China's counter - measures would continue to be extended for 90 days. The overall market sentiment was strong, and the market rose and then fell back [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), partially take profits; take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: High-level oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000: Oscillation [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [2] - Gold: Oscillation [2] - Silver: High-level oscillation [2] - Pulp: Correction [2] - Logs: Oscillation [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [2] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [2] - Rubber: Oscillation [2] - PX: Wait-and-see [2] - PTA: Wait-and-see [2] - MEG: Wait-and-see [2] - PR: Wait-and-see [2] - PF: Wait-and-see [2] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. During the military parade on September 3rd, environmental protection restrictions in northern regions may suppress iron ore demand. The overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, and market trading enthusiasm may continue to weaken [2]. - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". Macro policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts dominates market risk aversion sentiment [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, supply remains abundant, and arrivals are expected to rebound. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. Coking coal supply recovery is slow, and there is limited power for further significant price increases. Coke has a fifth-round price increase expectation [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There are risks of a phased correction. The market trading enthusiasm may decline. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and there is a pre-holiday high and post-holiday low pattern. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and the market sentiment has improved. However, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The Politburo meeting deployed economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates rebounded, and Treasury bond prices declined. Hold Treasury bond long positions lightly [2]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, and geopolitics affect its price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [2]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate, with supply pressure not significant and demand improving [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and domestic soybean arrivals are high. Oils are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - **Meals**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Demand is weak, but weather factors may provide support. Meals are expected to oscillate [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. Slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline [2]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [2]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices [2]. - **PTA**: Supply is slowly increasing, and downstream demand is weakening. Prices follow costs in the short term [2]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are increasing, and supply pressure is rising. Prices are under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may adjust steadily and strongly [2]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be in a narrow range due to the game between cost support and weak demand [2].

2025年7月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 部分班轮公司小幅下调运价,多空博弈下盘面涨跌互现,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | 7月25日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线 ...

| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | 7月25日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2067USD/FEU, 较上期下跌3.50% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1787.24点，较上期下跌0.9% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Upward [2] - Glass: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Declining [4] - Gold: Oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Retracement [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: On the sidelines [11] - MEG: On the sidelines [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased retracement after the release of short-term sentiment, and the expectation of production cuts reversing the situation again [2] - The macroeconomic situation is neutrally bullish, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The fundamentals of iron ore, coking coal and coke, and rebar are relatively strong in the short term, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - The market sentiment towards stock index futures/options is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [4] - The fundamentals of pulp are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to retrace [6] - The prices of logs are expected to be stable in the short term, with a slight increase in the cost side [6] - The prices of oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price may decline month-on-month [8] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain firm, and attention should be paid to the situation in Southeast Asia and the production and sales of tires [11] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 918,000 tons, with subsequent supply remaining ample; arrivals have declined in the past two weeks, but shipments are expected to increase seasonally, and arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound; the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable in the short term, and one can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - Coking coal and coke: The exchange has adjusted the trading limits for coking coal, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented; the fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively strong, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - Rebar: In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, the profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, and the total inventory pressure of steel is not obvious; the short-term sentiment of the steel industry has improved, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.39%, the SSE 50 Index closed up 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.65%; funds flowed into the biotechnology and communication equipment sectors, and out of the insurance and banking sectors; it is recommended to reduce long positions on stock index futures [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has increased by 4 bps, and the central bank has conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases; the short-term logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [4] Light Industry Products - Pulp: The spot market prices of pulp are diverging, the cost price has declined, and the demand is in the off-season, so prices are expected to retrace [6] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand from processing plants has increased, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined and inventories have increased, but industrial demand may bring potential positive factors; the inventory of domestic oils and fats is increasing, and demand is picking up, so prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The supply side in China is under significant pressure, and demand is weak, but the weather in US soybean-producing areas may cause price fluctuations, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and the average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly; the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined, and prices are expected to decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities - Natural rubber: The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, and raw material prices are firm; the demand for tires has shown a differentiated trend, and inventory has declined slightly, so prices are expected to remain firm [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The supply and demand of these products are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the tense Red Sea situation, the trade agreement between Europe and the United States, and significant retracement of commodity prices at high levels, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The market is in a state of intense long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Container Freight Indexes on July 28**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [1]. - **Container Freight Indexes on July 25**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - **Other Indexes on July 25**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI Indexes on July 25**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. - **Futures Market on July 28**: The closing price of the 2510 main contract was 1502.8, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 56,000 lots, and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the services PMI preliminary value was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - **China in June**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - **US in June**: The Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low) [1]. Market Events - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products [4]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to partially take profits on the long positions established below 1300 in the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to take a light short position and monitor the subsequent market trend [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is dominated by a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].