欧元区3月制造业PM1初值为48.7，预期48.2; 3月服务业PM1初值为50.4，预期51。欧元区3月综合PM1初值升至50.4, 2月为50.2，为8月以来最 高。欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数为-2.9,预期-8.4,前值-12.7。 2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PM）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最 高,用工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值录得49.8, 为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3, 为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月 标普全球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向,4月美国将对 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 短期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2506合约区间交易(1950- 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 2450) 上述区间内逢低试多逢高试空,设置好止损。 间的价格战。综 ...

2025年3月31日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对后续运价走势持有乐观态度,多头情绪上涨,盘面高位震荡,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 3月24日 | 3月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 983.01点, 较上期上涨12.89% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 866.25点, 较上期下跌0.65% | | 3月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1524.4点, 较上期上涨49.83% | | | 3月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1356.88点,较上期上涨64.13点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1111.71点, 较上期下跌3.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1318USD/TEU,较上期上涨0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [4] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Lithium carbonate: Bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Weak [8] - Red dates: Oscillation [8] - Sugar: Stop falling and rise [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Logs: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [9] - MEG: Look at the far - month contract [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Buy on dips, focus on processing margin [9] - Plastic: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [9] - PVC: Oscillation [11] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [11] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Eggs: Oscillation [11] 2. Core Views - The steel industry in Xinjiang reduces daily crude steel production by 10%, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector, with improved steel enterprise profitability and a slight increase in daily hot metal production [2] - The supply - surplus pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the twelfth round of price cuts has been initiated, with coal and coke following the trend of finished products [2] - The black varieties are in the process of near - month position transfer, and the market is oscillating upwards. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage [2] - The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] - The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made substantial progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to various factors [4] - The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise [4] - The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage [6] - The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] - The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6] - The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation, and the chemical products have different trends [9] - The agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, and corn have different market trends, and the egg price is oscillating at a low level [11] 3. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by the reduction of steel production in Xinjiang, the black sector rebounds. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, an increase of 25% year - on - year. The daily hot metal production rises to 237.28 tons. Stable investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation [2] - **Coal and coke**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The twelfth round of price cuts is initiated, and the market follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand [2] - **Rebar and coil**: The black varieties are in the position transfer period, and the market oscillates upwards. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the demand is in a weak recovery stage [2] - **Glass**: The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance. The bullish sentiment declines, and the market oscillates narrowly [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the ten - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market funds are generally stable. The Treasury bonds are in short - term consolidation [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise due to factors such as the reduction of long - term benchmark processing fees [4] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom due to supply contraction and cost increase, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage. The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to factors such as the potential increase in palm oil export tax and the South American soybean harvest [6] - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to factors such as the South American soybean supply pressure and the expected reduction of new - season US soybean area [6] - **Cotton and Rubber**: The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - **Sugar and Pulp**: The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - **Logs**: The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation due to factors such as inventory changes and price declines [9] Chemical Products - **PX and PTA**: The PX price is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the PTA price follows the raw material end and can be bought on dips [9] - **MEG and PR**: The MEG has a short - term rebound, and the PR market is in a weak - biased oscillation [9] - **PF and Plastics**: The PF price is expected to be strong - biased, and the plastic and PP markets are oscillating [9] - **PVC**: The PVC market is oscillating, with short - term inventory reduction but still large supply - demand contradictions [11] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The pig price is expected to be weak after the festival, and attention should be paid to the slaughter expectations and large - pig sales [11] - **Apples**: The apple sales are slow during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the market is stable with a downward bias [11] - **Corn**: The corn price breaks through the oscillation range, and it is expected to rise after a short - term callback [11] - **Eggs**: The egg price is oscillating at a low level due to supply and demand factors [11]

2025年3月28日 美运日报 (航运研究小组) 或因缺乏明确交易方向,观望情绪较浓,盘面震荡运行,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1292.75点，较上期下跌26.59点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数) 1147.76点，较上期下跌3.7% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1306USD/TEU,较上期下跌6.5% | 中国出口集装箱运 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Decline [4] - CSI 1000: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [6] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - White sugar: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Log: Weak - biased oscillation [10] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [10] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [10] - MEG: Rebound in the far - month contract [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Buy on dips, improve processing margin [10] - Plastic: Oscillation [10] - PP: Oscillation [10] - PVC: Oscillation [12] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [12] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Eggs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] Core Views - The black sector rebounds due to steel mills' production cuts, but the upward space of iron ore is limited, and coal - coke follows the trend of finished products. Rebar and coil are in a neutral valuation, and glass has a short - term rebound with limited space. [2] - Stock index futures show different trends, and the bullish sentiment of bonds weakens with short - term consolidation. Gold is in a strong - biased oscillation due to multiple factors. [4] - Non - ferrous metals have different trends, with copper and aluminum having long - term upward potential, and lithium carbonate and nickel facing pressure. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely, and meals are likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] - Soft commodities such as cotton and rubber have different trends, and sugar is expected to stop falling and rebound. Pulp is in a weak - biased oscillation. [8] - Energy and chemical products have complex trends, with some suitable for buying on dips and some in oscillation. Agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, corn, and eggs are mostly in an oscillation with a downward bias. [10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Some steel mills in Xinjiang reduce daily crude steel output by 10% since March 24, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, a 25% increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output rises to 237.28 tons, but the upward space is limited. Conservative investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore. [2] - **Coal - coke**: The oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Some coke enterprises cut production due to losses, but the overall supply is still high. The demand for coke is limited, and the twelfth round of price cuts starts. The raw material demand is under pressure, and it follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand. [2] - **Rebar and coil**: In late March and early April, the pressure of position transfer for near - month contracts of black varieties increases. Rebar is at a neutral valuation, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. Both production and demand increase, but the demand recovery is slow. The 05 contract has limited upward elasticity, and short - term external tariff policies may affect market sentiment. [2] - **Glass**: The glass futures price rebounds slightly after stabilizing at a low level. The production line is gradually ignited, and the output rebounds slightly. The demand recovers seasonally, and the spot sales rate is high. The short - term 2505 contract rebounds, but the space is restricted by the real - estate completion area and demand improvement. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day shows different performances of various stock indexes. Office supplies and the pharmaceutical sector have capital inflows, while power - generation equipment and energy - equipment sectors have outflows. The profit of large - scale industrial enterprises improves, but there are still difficulties. The bullish sentiment of stock indexes weakens, and long - positions can be held lightly. [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market funds are generally stable. The short - term bond market is in consolidation, and the long - term bond yield is flat. [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from real - interest - rate - centered to central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. Due to multiple factors such as debt problems, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical - gold demand, the gold price is in a strong - biased oscillation. [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The policy is positive, and the long - term copper supply is tight. The short - term price is affected by the external environment, showing a trend of first decline then rise. In the long run, the price bottom will rise. [6] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is restricted, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum increases limitedly. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the long - term price has upward potential due to energy transformation. [6] - **Lithium carbonate**: The medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is in a bottom - building state. The cost is low, and the supply exceeds demand. [6] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel iron increases, and the downstream demand is affected by infrastructure and real - estate. The medium - term price is under pressure from capacity release and the external environment. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: Indonesia may increase the export levy of crude palm oil and implement the B40 biodiesel plan. The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the export is weak. The supply of domestic soybean oil increases, and the palm - oil inventory is low. The three major oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely. [6] - **Meals**: The harvest and export of Brazilian soybeans accelerate, and the drought in Argentina eases. The supply pressure of South American soybeans and the expected reduction of the new - season US soybean area form a multi - empty situation. The domestic soybean supply is expected to ease in April, and the soybean meal is likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: ICE cotton rebounds strongly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates with an upward bias. The domestic cotton import decreases, and the downstream textile industry is generally stable. The market is sensitive to the planting area, and there will be no significant change before the USDA planting - intention report. [8] - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber rebounds slightly and continues to consolidate. The import is lower than expected, and the cost supports the price. The demand is expected to increase with the recovery of the automobile market, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound. [8] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar prices are in a low - level weak operation. The sugar trade is temporarily tight, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreases, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound after adjustment. [8] - **Pulp**: The spot price of pulp falls, and the external price is stable. The cost supports the price, but the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly. [8] Energy and Chemical Products - **PX**: The oil price fluctuates narrowly before the US tariff risk in April. The domestic PX load decreases, and the PXN spread oscillates. The PX price is expected to oscillate widely. [10] - **PTA**: The raw material oscillates and rebounds, and the PTA supply - demand is good. It follows the trend of the raw material end, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [10] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load falls, and the port inventory decreases. The raw material end recovers, and the short - term disk rebounds and repairs. [10] - **PR**: The oil price is strong, but the downstream buying interest is weak. The polyester bottle - chip market may oscillate narrowly. [10] - **PF**: The cost support is strong, and the industry is in a de - stocking state. The short - fiber price is expected to strengthen. [10] - **Plastic**: The spot price of plastic falls, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is rising, and the 05 contract oscillates. [10] - **PP**: The spot price of PP rises slightly, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate. [10] - **PVC**: The cost of PVC is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The supply - demand contradiction is still large, and the price is expected to oscillate. [12] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply of feed raw materials is sufficient, and the slaughter volume is supported. The terminal consumption is not significantly improved, and the pig price rebounds briefly but may continue to oscillate weakly. Focus on the pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival slaughter and the large - pig selling tide. [12] - **Apples**: The pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival stocking atmosphere is general, and the sales are slow. Some fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, and the foreign trade export procurement decreases. [12] - **Corn**: The purchase and sales rotation volume of CCDC increases, but the purchase scale is larger. The wheat - corn price difference narrows, and some traders have the intention to sell. The terminal demand is resilient, and the price may stabilize and rebound. [12] - **Eggs**: The market trading is light at the beginning of the week, and the egg price is under pressure. After the price falls, the trading improves, but the overall demand is average, and the price rise is weak. [12]

2025年3月27日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或因缺乏明确交易方向,多空博弈持续,盘面震荡运行,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1292.75点，较上期下跌26.59点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1147.76点，较上期下跌3.7% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1306USD/TEU,较上期下跌6.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价 ...

欧元区2月制造业PM1初值为47.3, 前值为46.6; 欧元区2月服务业PM1初值50.7, 创3个月新低。欧元区2月综合PM1初值50.2, 与前值一致。欧 元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数为-12.7,预期-16.3。 2025年3月25日 美运日报 (航运研究小组) 虽SCFIS持续下跌, 但部分班轮公司继续宣涨运价,盘面偏高位震荡, 风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 3 月 25 日星期二 · 516519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-3-25） | | | | 铁矿：八一钢铁、昆仑钢铁、闽新钢铁、昆玉钢铁等钢厂发布消息称， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 为推动新疆钢铁行业减量发展，自 3 月 24 日起，粗钢日产量减少 10%， | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 受此消息影响，黑色板块集体反弹。钢厂盈利率持平，检修高炉陆续复 | | | | | 产，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，铁矿受到去库支撑，但上升空间 | | | | | 较为有限。铁矿走势在宏观预期和现实间来回揉搓，基于远月有粗钢限 | | | | | 产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可关注铁矿石 05-09 正套操作。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭供应过剩的格局未改，市场传闻山西煤矿下调任务量，供应 | | | | | 收缩预期，焦企开工率稳定，部分焦企因亏损减产，但整体供应量依然 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 较高。尽管铁水产量有所增加，但对焦炭需求的拉动作用有限。钢厂利 | | ...