1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar (Rolled steel): Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Glass: Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Silver: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Pulp: Weak operation [5] - Logs: Range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Reverse spread [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different products having different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, policy factors, and geopolitical situations. For example, the black industry is affected by production restrictions and demand trends; the financial market is influenced by policies and market sentiment; precious metals are driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data; and agricultural products are affected by weather, planting area, and consumption demand [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is high, supporting commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions has been temporarily disproven, and the impact on demand is small. Global iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Coal supply accidents are frequent, and production reduction expectations may cause supply fluctuations. Coal mine inventories are at a low level, and downstream demand is high. Short - term price adjustments are limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel (Rebar)**: The production restriction policy in Tangshan is clear, but the reduction is less than expected. Overall demand is difficult to show a counter - seasonal performance, and there will be a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Spot demand for rebar is weak, and futures prices are looking for support after a significant adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The key for the 01 contract is the cold - repair path. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk preference and long - position holdings. The release of relevant policies and international trade exchanges may have an impact on the market [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended that long - position holders hold lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying behavior support the prices of gold and silver. Although some factors may cause short - term fluctuations, the upward - driving logic has not completely reversed [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices is weak, and the paper - making industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices are expected to decline [5]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The production and inventory of palm oil are in a certain state, and the demand growth provides long - term support. The inventory of domestic oils shows different trends, and prices are expected to oscillate after a previous sharp rise [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 1, and soybean No. 2**: The US soybean planting area has been significantly reduced, but the single - yield is expected to increase. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with weather and import volume being key factors [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices are expected to oscillate with a weak bias in the future [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: These products are affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, oil prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillation, wait - and - see, and reverse spread [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate continues to decline, and the futures market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties [2][5] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers can try light - position long positions at specific price levels for certain contracts, but should set stop - losses [5] Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Indexes - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [3] - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the European route price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3] - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8; the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51; the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4] Market and Strategy - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 1.80 million lots and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5] - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try light - position long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions due to large fluctuations [5] - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5] Other Information - Sino - US tariff extension negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Declining [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Declining [4] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Silver: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Pulp: Weakening [6] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and Bearish [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Live Pigs: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Natural Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Hold for Observation [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Reverse Spread [9] - PR: Hold for Observation [9] - PF: Hold for Observation [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black industry have different characteristics, with some products having limited fundamental contradictions and expected to be volatile, while others face supply - demand imbalances and are expected to be volatile and weakening [2] - The stock index futures/options market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly. The precious metals market is expected to be volatile and strengthening, mainly influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline. The log market has limited supply pressure and is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, mainly affected by factors such as export sales and production. The meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish, affected by factors such as production and imports [6] - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, is expected to be volatile and weakening due to factors such as supply increases and consumption restrictions [7] - The soft commodity market, represented by natural rubber, is expected to be volatile and strengthen in the short term due to factors such as supply tightening and inventory reduction [9] - The polyester market has different trends for different products, and short - term prices are mainly affected by factors such as cost and supply - demand [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the demand is affected little by the refutation of the domestic blast furnace production restriction expectation. The global iron ore shipment has a slight decline, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but the blast furnace hot metal output is slightly rising, and steel mills have little motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There have been frequent accidents in the coal supply side, and the supply may fluctuate. The inventory of clean coal in coal mines has reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre - sold orders. The overall coking production restriction in Hebei and Shandong has a long time, and the short - term adjustment range is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills is clear, but the production reduction is less than expected. The building material demand has a month - on - month decline, the external demand export has been overdrawn in advance, and the real estate investment continues to decline. The total demand is difficult to have an anti - seasonal performance, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The profits of the five major steel products are okay, the output has a slight increase, the apparent demand has recovered, and the steel mill inventory and social inventory are both increasing. During the military parade in mid - August, there is an expectation of supply contraction, but it is limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is intensifying. The spot demand for rebar is still weak in the traditional peak season, and the futures price is expected to find support after a significant adjustment [2] - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The glass production line has no water release or ignition, the operating rate is basically stable, the weekly output is stable month - on - month, and the manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and they can only choose cold repair. The market sentiment is highly volatile, and the middle and lower reaches of the glass market have room for restocking, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. The short - term spot price is weak, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the disk [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The communication equipment and Internet sectors had capital inflows, while the daily chemical and education sectors had capital outflows. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and promote service exports. In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed for two consecutive months, with high - tech manufacturing leading the way. The market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 3 basis points, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 379.9 billion yuan on August 27, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan on the same day. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem may intensify, and the de - dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, but the market's risk - aversion demand still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short - term disturbing factors. The silver market is also expected to be volatile and strengthen [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is showing a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp prices weakening. The papermaking industry has a low profitability level, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is in the off - season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid - demand basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline [6] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of log ports has increased, and the supply pressure is limited. The inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, and the delivery willingness is affected by the price range. The market is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal - **Oil and Fat**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The palm oil production in Malaysia has increased and inventory has accumulated in July, but the end - of - period inventory is lower than expected. The export demand for palm oil has been strong since August, mainly driven by Indian festival purchases. The Indonesian biodiesel policy has uncertain implementation time but provides long - term support for palm oil prices. The domestic soybean imports in August are high, and the oil mills have high operating rates. The soybean oil inventory has pressure, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline. The double - festival restocking demand has recovered, and the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile after a previous significant increase [6] - **Meal**: The USDA has significantly reduced the soybean planting area. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, output, and end - of - period inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. The US soybean production area is conducive to soybean growth, and the market expects a bumper harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed, but the weather in the next month is still a key factor. Before the US soybean exports improve substantially, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change. The domestic soybean imports from August to September are high, the oil mills have high operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is high. After the downstream concentrated restocking, the purchasing sentiment has become cautious. The Sino - US negotiation expectation continues to disturb the market sentiment, and the meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has continued to decline. The temperature increase has slowed down the weight gain of pigs, and slaughter enterprises have increased the purchase of low - priced standard pigs, resulting in a decline in the overall purchase weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of live pigs by key slaughter enterprises has shown a downward trend due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter by farmers and the impact of high - temperature weather on terminal consumption. The average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises has increased month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has fluctuated, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile in the future [7] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas have less interference, and the raw material supply in Yunnan is tight, supporting high purchase prices. The glue production in Hainan is lower than expected, and the raw material purchase prices have increased due to the futures market. The cup - lump price in Thailand has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the geopolitical conflict in some areas has restricted the tapping progress. The raw material prices in Vietnam have also increased. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel radial tire enterprises has been affected by individual factory shutdowns and production cuts, while that of all - steel radial tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work by some maintenance enterprises. The inventory in Qingdao ports has decreased, with lower inbound rates and higher outbound rates. The natural rubber market still has an oversupply situation, but the gap has narrowed. With the expected increase in rainfall in the main producing areas at home and abroad in the next cycle, the expected tightening of raw material supply will drive up rubber prices, and the domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain strong in the short term [9] - **PX**: The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory has exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in oil prices. The PTA load has weakened, while the PX load has fluctuated and recovered. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the pressure is not high, and the PXN spread is relatively stable. The PX price fluctuates with oil prices [9] - **PTA**: The oil price has large fluctuations, and the cost support is average despite the stable PXN spread. The PTA supply has decreased, and the downstream polyester factory load has started to rebound, improving the PTA supply - demand situation. The short - term price mainly fluctuates with the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory decreased last week, and the subsequent arrival volume is lower than expected. The terminal demand has slightly improved, domestic production has increased, and the import volume has fluctuated. The supply pressure has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the MEG disk price [9] - **PR**: The supply of polyester bottle chips has become more abundant, weakening the supply support. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking at low prices, and the polyester bottle chip market is expected to decline weakly in a volatile manner [9] - **PF**: The polyester staple fiber has no positive factors in its own supply - demand, but the overnight increase in oil prices may be positive for the cost. The price of the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and after a brief rebound, the market is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - In the face of international situation turmoil, contracts maintain seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts for arbitrage strategies [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Data - On August 22 - 25, shipping freight rate indices such as NCFI and SCFIS showed declines. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped by 1.59%, and the SCFIS (European route) fell by 8.7% [1] - On August 22, other shipping freight rate indices like SCFI and CCFI also decreased. The SCFI composite index dropped by 44.83 points, and the CCFI (European route) fell by 1.8% [1] Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the market trend and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to international situation instability, it's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts [3] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [3] Market Conditions - On August 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1318.9, with a decline of 2.76%, a trading volume of 2.58 million lots, and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 52 lots from the previous day [3] - The 2508 contract's delivery price was 2135.2 [3] Geopolitical Events - The Islamic Cooperation Organization held a special meeting to discuss Israel's aggression against Palestine and issued a joint statement opposing Israel's actions [3] - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, which has drawn condemnation from the Indian government [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI rose to 51.1 [2] - The preliminary value of the US August manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [3] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, so it's advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, and after a brief rebound, the market is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - From August 22nd to 25th, multiple shipping freight rate indices declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 1.59% to 1035.79 points, and the SCFIS (European route) fell 8.7% to 1990.20 points [1]. - On August 26th, the main contract 2510 closed at 1318.9 with a 2.76% decline, a trading volume of 2.58 million lots, and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 52 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5; the services PMI was 50.7; the composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, a 39 - month high, and the services PMI was 55.4 [2]. Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, which is a new signal of the White House's plan to raise tariffs [3]. - The Islamic Cooperation Organization held a special meeting to discuss Israel's aggression against Palestine and issued a joint statement opposing the aggression [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses and don't hold losing positions [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating upward [4] - Silver: Oscillating upward [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating downward [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Reverse spread [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate, supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and high steel mill profitability [2] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate upward, with supply-side factors providing support and a potential for further upside if supply continues to decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets face supply-demand imbalances, with limited supply contraction expected during the military parade and weakening demand, leading to price oscillations [2] - The glass market has a weak short-term supply-demand situation, with inventory accumulation and limited demand recovery due to the real estate downturn [2] - Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, with the market focusing on the support of the 60-day moving average and the improvement of real demand [2] - Stock index futures and options show different trends, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 expected to rise due to government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization [2][4] - Treasury bond prices are expected to oscillate, with the market influenced by interest rate fluctuations and central bank operations [4] - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate upward, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations [4] - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate, with a weak supply-demand situation and limited cost support [6] - Log prices are expected to range-bound, with stable demand and limited supply pressure [6] - Edible oil prices are expected to oscillate, influenced by factors such as export demand, inventory levels, and weather conditions [6] - Meal prices are expected to oscillate downward, with abundant supply and uncertain demand [6] - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate downward, with increasing supply and weakening demand [8] - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate, with a narrowing supply-demand gap and potential for price increases due to supply-side factors [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets show different trends, with factors such as supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influencing prices [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Fundamental contradictions are not prominent, with limited impact on demand from potential高炉限产. Global shipments have declined slightly, but there is no significant inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by coal mine accidents and production restrictions, prices have risen and then adjusted. Supply-side factors support prices, and short-term adjustments are limited. Buying on dips is recommended after the market sentiment stabilizes [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Tangshan's steel mill production restrictions are less than expected, and demand is weak. Supply is expected to contract during the military parade, but the impact is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures and options: Different indices show different trends, influenced by government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization. Long positions are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and central bank operations have an impact on prices. Long positions should be held with a light position [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations. The current upward trend is expected to continue, with short-term fluctuations possible [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is limited. Prices are expected to consolidate [6] - Logs: Demand is stable, and supply pressure is limited. Prices are expected to range-bound [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Edible oils: Demand is influenced by export sales and policies, and inventory levels vary. Prices are expected to oscillate, with attention paid to weather conditions and production and sales data [6] - Meals: Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply and demand are gradually balancing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Supply-side factors may drive prices higher in the short term [11] Polyester Sector - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influence prices. Different products show different trends [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating strongly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts has supported commodities. The market is affected by various factors such as policy, supply and demand, and market sentiment, and different varieties show different trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery was interrupted, and the Politburo meeting was disappointing, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts supported commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions was falsified, and the impact on iron ore demand was small. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume also rebounded, but there was no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had little motivation to cut production actively. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - involution, the night trading of coking coal and coke rose sharply. The overall recovery of coal mines was slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high - level operations, and coal prices were supported in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills was clear, but the production reduction was less than expected. Building material demand declined, and total demand was difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The supply was expected to shrink during the military parade, but the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market intensified. The spot demand for rebar was weak, and the futures price was expected to adjust downward to find support [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment cooled, and the downstream was in the stage of digesting inventory. The supply and demand pattern did not improve significantly. There was no change in the production line, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The possibility of glass factory shutdown during the military parade was low. The downstream inventory was low, but the rigid demand had not recovered. In the long term, glass demand was difficult to rise significantly [2]. - **Soda ash**: The short - term spot was weak, and the futures price followed the macro - driven rise. The improvement of real demand needs to be concerned [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 2.09%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.56%. Funds flowed into the precious metals and power generation equipment sectors and out of the daily chemical and water service sectors. The market sentiment was bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase and MLF operations. The market interest rate fluctuated, and the trend of Treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real - interest - rate - centered to the central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. The currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation supported the price of gold, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. The PCE data on Friday needs to be concerned [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price was stable, and the cost support for pulp prices weakened. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and the demand was in the off - season. The pulp market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port increased, and the supply pressure was not large. The inventory decreased, and the spot market price was stable. The cost support was enhanced. The fundamentals had few contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: Affected by strong export sales and the decision of the US EPA on biofuel exemptions, the demand for soybean oil was promising. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the inventory was lower than expected, and the export demand was strong. The domestic import of soybeans remained high, and the inventory situation of different oils was different. The demand for double - festival stocking recovered, and it is expected to oscillate bullishly [6]. - **Meal products**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of soybeans, and the inventory of US soybeans decreased. The weather in the US soybean - producing area was favorable for growth, but the weather in the next month was still crucial. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed increased the cost, and the supply was worried. The domestic soybean arrival volume was high, and the soybean meal inventory was abundant. It is expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continued to decline. The supply increased, and the demand was restricted by high - temperature weather. The price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather on the main rubber - producing areas weakened, but the geopolitical conflict still had a small impact. The raw material supply was tight, and the purchase price was high. The utilization rate of tire enterprises' production capacity showed different trends, and the inventory at Qingdao Port decreased. The supply - demand gap narrowed, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical instability made the oil price direction unclear. The PTA load weakened, and the polyester load rebounded. The short - term supply and demand of PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the price was strong [9]. - **PTA**: The oil price fluctuated greatly, and the cost support was general. The supply decreased, and the demand improved. The price followed the cost fluctuation [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory decreased, and the subsequent arrival volume was lower than expected. The terminal demand improved slightly, and the supply pressure increased. The medium - term supply and demand were expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supported the price [9]. - **PR**: The supply - demand expectation of polyester bottle chips was weak, but the oil price was strong, and the cost supported the price to oscillate [9]. - **PF**: The supply - demand side of polyester staple fiber lacked positive factors, but the overnight oil price increase and the strong raw material side were expected to continue, and the price was expected to sort out warmly [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. - The spot price has slightly decreased, and the main contract is weak in the short - term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong [2][5]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize [5]. 3. Summary by Content Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% [3]. - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; NCFI (US West route) was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3]. - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; CCFI (US West route) was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3]. - **Contract Information**: On August 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1309.0, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 2.54 million lots and an open interest of 54,300 lots, a decrease of 38 lots from the previous day [5]. Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.5); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous value 50.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.6); the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Trade Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize [5]. Other Information - The circuit - breaker limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Bullish with Volatility [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Bullish with Volatility [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Silver: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [4] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [4] - Soybean Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Palm Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [4] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [4] - No. 2 Soybeans: Volatile [4] - No. 1 Soybeans: Bearish with Volatility [4] - Live Pigs: Bearish with Volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: Hold for Observation [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Hold for Observation [8] - PR: Hold for Observation [8] - PF: Bullish with Volatility [8] Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations. However, Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut, providing support for commodities [2] - The expected blast furnace production restrictions in China have been temporarily disproven, so the impact on iron ore demand is minimal. The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2] - Affected by a coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - cut - throat competition, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply overnight. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and coal prices are supported in the short term [2] - The steel market's supply - demand contradiction has intensified. With the approaching traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar remains weak, and the futures price is looking for support after a significant adjustment [2] - The glass market's supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and the real demand needs to be further observed [2] - The stock index market has seen capital inflows into semiconductor, computer hardware, and financial sectors, while capital has flowed out of aviation and gas sectors. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - The bond market has shown weak trends due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The current logic driving the gold price increase remains valid, and gold is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - The log market has relatively small supply pressure and increasing demand for stocking up by processing plants. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - The oil market has positive demand prospects. The demand for biofuels is increasing, and the inventory of palm oil is lower than expected. The oil market is expected to be bullish with volatility [4] - The meal market is affected by factors such as the adjustment of soybean planting area, weather conditions, and import policies. The market is expected to be volatile [4] - The live pig market has an increasing supply and weak consumption demand due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6] - The natural rubber market has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, but the gap is narrowing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - The PX market is affected by the uncertainty of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the reduction of old production capacity in South Korea. The price is relatively strong [8] - The PTA market's supply - demand situation has improved, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [8] - The MEG market has increasing supply pressure, but low inventory supports the price [8] - The PR and PF markets have relatively stable short - term supply - demand structures, but the market's expectations for future demand are cautious [8] Summaries by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly on a环比 basis, and the arrival volume has also rebounded. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have little motivation to cut production actively. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by a coal mine accident and anti - cut - throat competition, the prices rose sharply overnight. The recovery of coal mines in production areas is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates remain high. The price is expected to be bullish with volatility [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The steel mill's production restrictions in Tangshan are less than expected. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction has intensified. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and its de - fiat currency attribute is becoming more prominent. The market's risk - aversion demand still exists, and the price is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and promoting sports consumption. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - **Bonds**: The bond market trends are weak due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] Industrial Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - **Logs**: The supply pressure is relatively small, and the demand for stocking up by processing plants is increasing. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap in the natural rubber market is narrowing. With the expected improvement in supply and relatively stable demand, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price is relatively strong due to supply - demand and production capacity factors. The PTA price follows cost fluctuations, the MEG price is supported by low inventory, and the PR and PF markets have stable short - term supply - demand but cautious demand expectations [8] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Meals**: The demand for oils is positive due to biofuel demand and lower - than - expected palm oil inventory. The meal market is affected by planting area, weather, and import policies, and is expected to be volatile [4] - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6]