Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and a general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The overall atmosphere remains bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8%. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 818.97 points, up 11.50%; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% [3]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7%; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line; the preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4; the preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [3]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52; the preliminary services PMI was 53.9; the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the Israel - Hamas situation. Some reports say Israel's military operations have stopped, while others claim attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are continuing. A cease - fire agreement has been announced by a Hamas official, but some terms of Trump's "20 - point plan" are not mentioned [7].

中美关税继续延期，谈判并没有出现实质性进展，关税战已经逐渐演 化成美国与其他国家间的贸易谈判问题,目前现货价格小幅下降。综 上述,我们认为,关税问题已经量现边际化效应,目前核心还是现货 运价的走向，主力合约或已处于筑底过程，建议轻仓参与或观望。 10月10日主力合约2512收盘1570.0，跌幅为3.04%，成交量3.15 万手，持仓量2.81万手，较上日增手3834手。 中东局势持续向好,虽SCFI指数回升,但整体氛围仍偏空,盘面承压 下行。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况关注。 短期策略: 主力合约保持弱势,远月合约较强,符合筑底判断,风险偏 好者已建议止盈。关注后续盘面走势，不建议扛单，设置好止损。 套利策略: 国际局势动荡背景下, 各合约仍保持季节性逻辑, 波动较 大，建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 长期策略：各合约已建议冲高止盈，等待回调企稳后，在判断后续方向 跌涨停板：2508-2606合约调整为18%。 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 日内开仓限制: 2508-2606所有合约为100手。 中美贸易摩擦再起,外盘普遍大幅下跌,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | SCFIS、N ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the spot freight rates on European routes continued to decline. However, with shipping companies announcing cancellations during the National Day holiday and price increases for mid - to late - October, the bullish sentiment was boosted to some extent, and the futures market fluctuated widely. The overall cargo volume in the market was low, and shipping companies continued to strengthen their efforts to attract cargo to maintain the loading rate of routes. Freight rates on routes such as Europe and North America continued to decline, while the futures market was supported by optimistic sentiment, so the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed rapidly [2]. - As of the end of September, the three - week average of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was 1,271.88 points, a month - on - month decrease of 40.43%. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) for European routes in September was 1,123/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 37.48%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,913.75/TEU, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The average value of the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for European routes in September was 718.28/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 38.42%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,091.90/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1,600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - In October, the booking freight rates in the spot market are expected to continue to decline, and the decline is significant. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index has continued to decline sharply. Shipping companies have also continuously lowered their quotes for European routes from late September to October. Therefore, the EC2510 futures price has further declined to a lower level. The basis between futures and spot prices continues to narrow, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline of the SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index next week will reach about 8%, while the EC2510 futures price is expected to have a small further downward space at the bottom [3]. - Future contradictions include: whether the price increases announced by shipping companies for mid - to late - October can be implemented under weak demand is still in question; the Middle East situation remains volatile, but its overall impact on the futures market is gradually decreasing [4]. - On the demand side, the overall demand in the eurozone remains weak. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the eurozone unchanged. The consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained stable in August, indicating that the European Central Bank can postpone further interest rate cuts to later this year if necessary. The year - on - year final value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 8.0%, the same as in July, slightly lower than the expected 2.1% increase, indicating that the recent price pressure in the eurozone is moderate, and demand is neither overheating nor in deflation [4]. - On the supply side, the overall supply of capacity on the Asia - Europe route exceeds demand. Although shipping companies have reduced capacity during and around the holiday according to previous years' practices, the overall market capacity scale is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, although the market will experience a short - term shortage of capacity after the holiday, it is expected to remain in a loose state overall [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In early September, the futures market rose rapidly, possibly affected by some shipping companies' announcements of cancellations during the National Day holiday and the renewed tension in the Middle East situation. In the middle of the month, as shipping companies continuously lowered spot freight rates and relevant indices continued to decline significantly, the futures market quickly fell. In the late month, although the SCFIS and other relevant indices continued to decline, the futures market rebounded slightly and then fluctuated after the China - US economic and trade talks and shipping companies' announcements of price increases for mid - to late - October [6]. Supply - Demand Analysis of Container Shipping Supply Side - **Capacity Situation**: Recently, although shipping companies on the Asia - Europe route have tried to control capacity through blank sailings, the overall scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and the actual capacity supply remains sufficient. Shipping companies are actively attracting cargo to improve the loading rate. However, the global container ship order volume has reached 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing capacity, and the scrapping volume is at a low level, indicating significant pressure from the continuous release of new capacity. The supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, the over - capacity situation has not been effectively alleviated, and market freight rates are still under pressure [12]. - **Port Situation**: The operating conditions of major ports in China have shown signs of improvement compared with last month. Although the throughput of Shanghai Port has continued to decline slightly, the throughput of Ningbo Port has increased rapidly. The port congestion situation has not improved, and the global on - time performance rate has continued to decline [19]. Demand Side - **China's Foreign Trade**: As of July 2025, China's cumulative export volume reached 2.130363 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.10%, and the cumulative import volume reached 1.446849 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. Among them, the cumulative export to the EU was 317.418 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the EU was 149.191 billion yuan. The cumulative export to the US was 251.372 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the US was 85.851 billion yuan. In July, among China's "new three" exports, except for the increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles compared with the same period in 2024, the others still decreased. Compared with the same period in 2024, China's exports to the EU have increased steadily, while imports have decreased year - on - year. China's trade with the US has been mainly affected by continuous US tariffs, and both imports and exports have continued to decline compared with the same period [29]. - **Foreign Trade in Europe and the US**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [31]. - The online quotes of ONE for the first ten - day period of October have been further adjusted downward to $1,235/FEU, and other shipping companies have also maintained a low level of $1,400/FEU. However, shipping companies have announced price increase plans for after mid - October, and it is currently announced that the price will rise to around $2,000/FEU. Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on the post - holiday loading situation. At the same time, the price increase situation will also affect the medium - to long - term freight rate level, and there is still uncertainty in the market [33]. Summary No relevant content provided other than the above - mentioned information in the summary section.

新世纪期货铁矿月报 商品研究|铁矿月报 黑色产业链组 电话：0571-85103057 邮编：310000 地址：杭州市拱墅区万寿亭 13 号 网址 http://www.zjncf.com.cn 铁矿 2025.6 月月报——铁矿 石价格的"短多长空"：需求 淡季的市场逻辑 强运行 铁矿 2025.8 月月报——重要 10 月铁矿月报—— 供应端干扰，铁矿或先扬后抑 观点摘要： 库存： 目前钢厂利润收缩，高产量承压。铁矿石供应仍维持高位，需 求在钢材库存持续增加情况下有转弱预期，节前没有超额补库，关 注国庆节后成材库存去化情况。 铁矿 2025.7 月月报——"反 内卷"吹响号角，短期矿价偏 总结： 部分自媒体报道称因铁矿石定价争议升级，对禁止进口 BHP 等 矿山矿石的消息产生新的担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知， 另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情绪，后续关注供应端的实际影响情 况。钢厂盈利面有所走低，但依旧处于近年偏高水平，日均铁水产 量也维持在高位，短期很难看到负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求， 若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库存持续累积，钢价下跌带动 利润走低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目前铁矿石交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Index Data - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period. On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Market and Policy - Sino - US tariffs are extended, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the situation in the India - Pakistan - Israel region signaled a relaxation. The market was affected, with strong bearish sentiment and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes it will pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the early morning of October 9, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that they had evaluated the latest situation overnight. The IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and said that the army's deployment would be implemented according to political - level instructions and the requirements of relevant stages of the agreement [7].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-10） | | | | 铁矿：节后铁矿有所反弹，更多是供应端消息层面支撑。部分自媒体报道 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 称因铁矿石定价争议升级，对禁止进口 BHP 等矿山矿石的消息产生新的 | | | | | 担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知，另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 绪，后续关注供应端的实际影响情况。近期钢厂盈利面走低，但依旧处于 | | | | | 近年偏高水平，日均铁水产量也维持 241-242 万吨左右，短期很难看到 | | | | | 负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求，若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库 | | | | | 存持续累积，钢价下跌带动利润走低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目 | | | | | 前铁矿石交易逻辑不确定性增加，短期供应端干扰下仍有支撑。 | | | | | 煤焦：10 月国内焦煤供给预计将维持平稳运行态势。受前期"反内卷" | | | 煤焦 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View of the Report - The stock - bond market is optimistic about the upward trend. Maintain the current position for stock index long positions, and hold treasury bond long positions lightly as the treasury bond trend weakens due to market interest rate fluctuations [3] - The steel market runs steadily during the long - holiday. There may be a short - term price boost after the holiday, but demand improvement is limited [4] - The market expects a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October. Gold is expected to oscillate strongly due to risk - aversion sentiment [5] - The log spot market is strong. With expected weekly increase in arrivals and rising daily shipments, logs are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Rubber prices are restricted by increased supply expectations and weakened cost support. Natural rubber will continue to oscillate weakly [7] - With large imports and high inventory of soybeans in October, the market for soybeans and soybean meal is expected to oscillate bearishly [8] - Oil prices are supported by supply risks. PX and PTA follow crude oil fluctuations, and MEG will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with some fundamental support [9] Summary by Related Catalogs No relevant content