2025年5月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 利好出尽盘面保持高位震荡,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 5月16日 5月12日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1265.30点，较上期下跌2.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1446.36点,较上期下跌0.6% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% 5月16日 5月16日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1430.35点，较上期下跌1.0% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线3091USD/FEU, 较上期上涨3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term high - level allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak shock [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Shock [2] - Glass: Shock [2] - Soda ash: Shock [2] - CSI 300: Shock [4] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High - level shock [4] - Silver: Strong - biased shock [4] - Pulp: Shock [6] - Logs: Shock [6] - Soybean oil: Shock [6] - Palm oil: Shock [6] - Rapeseed oil: Shock [6] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 2: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 1: Shock [6] - Live pigs: Shock [8] - Rubber: Strong - biased shock [8] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise in the black industry has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The financial market is affected by factors such as LPR cuts and deposit rate cuts, and the precious metal market is influenced by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets are facing different supply - and - demand situations, and the polyester industry is affected by factors such as oil prices and raw material supply [2][4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise has weakened. Supply is expected to increase, iron - water production has declined from a high level, port inventory is relatively high, and demand is the key. The improvement in steel - demand expectations due to the easing of the trade war is offset by the seasonal weakening of actual demand. Conservative investors can try long - short spreads, and aggressive investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - and - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall supply - surplus pattern [2] - **Rebar**: The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, demand is falling slowly in the short term, inventory is still being depleted, but the rainy season may affect inventory depletion. Supply remains high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the suspension of a 24% tariff on exports [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, daily output has fluctuated slightly, spot prices have fallen slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. The latest LPR has been cut, and banks have lowered deposit rates. The Sino - US tariff issue has achieved phased results, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. Long positions in stock indexes can be held [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has risen, and market interest rates are consolidating. The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are affecting its price. The logic for the current price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, raw - material prices have fallen, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. Pulp prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply pressure has weakened, and prices are expected to be in a bottom - level shock [6] - **Oils and fats**: Palm oil production is in a seasonal increase period, and inventory has risen. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - festival stocking has improved spot consumption. Prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Meals**: Sino - US trade relations have eased, US soybean inventories may tighten, and domestic soybean supply has become more abundant. Meal prices are expected to be in a weak - biased shock [6] - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, demand from slaughter enterprises has decreased, and post - festival consumption has declined seasonally. However, secondary fattening demand provides support, and prices are expected to be in a shock [8] - **Rubber**: Domestic rubber output is stable, Thai raw - material prices are high, demand from tire enterprises is recovering, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and prices are expected to be in a strong - biased shock [8] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PX load has recovered, and prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PXN spreads are around $272/ton, and short - term supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production load has decreased, ports are expected to de - stock, raw - material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [9] - **PR**: Mainstream polyester factories may cut production, and prices may be adjusted downward due to cost factors [9] - **PF**: Although downstream buyers are cautious, international oil prices have risen, and supply - side factors are favorable. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [9]

3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，我国制造业景气水平继续回升。3月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI) 录得51.2, 高于上月0.4个百分点, 为四个月来新高。 美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PMW值51.2，预期52.2，3月 终值53.5。 2025年5月20日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧洲港口拥堵加剧，安特卫普24小时罢工，盘面高位震荡，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 5月16日 5月12日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1265.30点，较上期下跌2.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1446.36点，较上期下跌0.6% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-20） | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。本 | 期澳巴发运回升，随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仍有增加预期。铁水产量高位转降，长流程钢厂利润阶段性修复，上周检 | 铁矿石 | 逢高空配 | 修的高炉本周复产，5 | 月铁水产量将维持在高位，铁矿价格受到高铁水支 | | | | | 撑。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核 | 心关键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，但现实需求季 | | | | | | | | 节性走弱，铁矿上方受到淡季需求压制。美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进 | 口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，对近月需求形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者 | | | | | | | | 尝试铁矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月反弹抛空机 | 会 ...

2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

2025年5月16日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多家班轮公司宣涨6月初运价,美线运价再度推涨,近月合约强势上涨,符合日报预期,建议冲高止盈 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 5月12日 | 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线) 1302.62点, 较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 952.32点, 较上期上涨2.37% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 756.79点, 较上期下跌0.94% | | 5月9日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1471.92点, 较上期下跌0.41% 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1345.17点,较上期下跌4.24点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1106.38点, 较上期下跌1.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1161USD/TEU,较上期下跌3.3% | 中国出口集装箱运价 ...

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-16） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，铁矿盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状 ...

2.市场具有不确定性、过往策略观点的吻合并不保证当前策略观点的正确。公司及其他研究员可能发表与本策略观点不同甚至相反的意见。报告所载资料、意见及推测仪 映研究人员于发出本报告当日的判断,可随时更改目无需另行通告。 3.在法律范围内，公司或关联机构可能会就涉及的品种进行交易，或可能为其他公司交易提供服务。 4.本报告版权仅为浙江新世纪期货有限公司所有。未经事先书面许可，任何财的和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和月用，否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法 律责任由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。 圳 | | 2025年5月15日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 船司发布涨价函，美线出现抢运潮，部分合约再次涨停，符合日报预期，建议冲高止盈 | | | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | 5月12日 | | 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）952.32点，较上期上涨2.37% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 15 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-15） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状态。钢厂铁水 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 产量仍处于 ...

2025年5月12日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸正式谈判取得实质性进展,符合日报预期,今日若冲高建议落袋止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 欧元区4月制造业PMM初值为48.7，预期47.5; 4月服务业PMM加值为49.7，预期50.5, 欧元区4月综合PMW加值为50.1，预期值为50.3，前值为50.9 欧元区4月Sentix投资者信心指数-19.5，预期-10,前值-2.9。 5.6%。其中，出口2.27万亿元，增长9.3%;进口1.57万亿元,增长0.8%。 3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，我国制造业景气水平继续回升。3月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI) 录得51.2，高于上月0.4个百分点，为四个月来新高。 美国4月标普全球制造业PMI初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PMI初值51.2，预期52.2，3月 终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对加拿 | | | --- | --- | | 大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策 ...