SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 | 12月1日 | II FZOD | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点,较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13 点,较上期上涨9.57点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1404USD/TEU, 较上期上涨2.71% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1632USD/FEU, 较上期上下跌0.79% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate with a small position [2][4] - With the interweaving of long and short information such as some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, the contracts rise and fall differently. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Information - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4] - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [3] 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the main contract 2602 closed at 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%, a trading volume of 24,700 lots, and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1882 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, do not add more positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [5] - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a small position [5] - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Other Information - Some liner companies have announced price increases for late December, but the latest SCFIS index is declining, with long and short information intertwined, and the contracts rise and fall differently [4] - The Iran - Israel situation: Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel, including restoring the military capabilities of the Houthi armed forces and smuggling weapons to the West Bank for attacks on Israel [6] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weakly volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Bottoming out with volatility [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.2: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Weakly volatile [7] - Live pigs: Strongly volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [11] - PX: Widely volatile [11] - PTA: Volatile [11] - MEG: Weakly volatile [11] - PF: Await - and - see [11] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and international situation. For example, the iron ore market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the price is volatile at a high level; the gold price is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, and the short - term fluctuations are affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment [2][4][6] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in the real estate, and the new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is volatile at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After the previous continuous decline, the valuation is reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The market is worried about the resumption of production on the supply side. Steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, and the price is supported at a low level in the short term [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter restocking has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, and the real estate new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances. The market expects three production lines in Hubei to be cold - repaired in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The float glass inventory has decreased, but the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand. The price is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair progress and macro situation [2] - Soda ash: The report does not provide detailed information other than the investment rating of "volatile" [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48%, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 1.00%. The market has short - term adjustments, but the medium - term trend is still optimistic [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank increased the net investment of medium - and long - term liquidity tools in November. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, and the market trend rebounded slightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment are short - term disturbance factors, and the long - term price is supported by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [4][6] Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume decreased last week. The import volume in October showed different trends, and the expected arrival volume decreased significantly. The inventory pressure has weakened, and the price is expected to bottom out with volatility [5] - Pulp: The spot market price became stronger on the previous trading day, and the cost support increased, but the paper mills' acceptance of high - price pulp is low, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price was partially raised on the previous trading day. The supply is stable, the orders are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia in October were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be range - bound [7] - Meals: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is declining. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughtering rate increased slightly but is expected to weaken next week. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: The raw material price in Yunnan is stable, and the output in Hainan decreased due to temperature. The supply in Thailand and Vietnam is affected by rain. The inventory is increasing seasonally, and the price is expected to be widely volatile [11] - PX: The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is falling. The PX supply is high, but the downstream demand is good, and the price is widely volatile [11] - PTA: The cost is loosening, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening, and the price is expected to follow the cost [11] - MEG: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly volatile [11] - PF: The market is expected to be narrowly adjusted under the game of multiple factors [11]

2025年12月3日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 回撤或已到位, 主力合约连续反弹, 已建议轻仓试多, 关注春节前出货行情, 运价并无明显波动。 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案，运价走势的逻辑 还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上，目前现货价格小幅下 降。综上述，我们认为，关税问题已经呈现边际化效应，目前核心还 是现货运价的走向，主力合约已经出现季节性反弹，建议轻仓参与或 欢迎。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月1日 | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1483.65点，较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）972.63点，较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）948.77点，较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1024.64点，较上期上涨7.67% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）881.66点，较上期下跌7.77% | | 11月28日 | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Oscillation with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillation with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [7] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [7] - Offset Paper: Oscillation [7] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Palm Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with some products showing upward or downward trends. The supply and demand relationship, cost factors, policy factors, and macro - economic environment all have an impact on product prices [2][3][6] - For the black industry, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are mainly in a bottom - oscillating state. For the financial sector, the short - term adjustment is accompanied by an optimistic medium - term trend. For precious metals, the long - term support for gold prices is strong. For agricultural products, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as production, demand, and trade [2][3][6][7][8] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased by 447,000 tons to 33.232 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 1.555 million tons to 27.84 million tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 16,000 tons to 2.3468 million tons. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are in a high - level oscillation [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After continuous declines, the valuation is reasonable and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The cost pressure on coking plants is high, and there are concerns about supply on the industrial side. Prices are supported at low levels in the short term [2] - **Rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, winter storage replenishment has not started, and the upper - space is limited. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. It is currently in an oscillating state [2] - **Glass**: Supply news is disturbing, and the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased. However, real - estate completion continues to decline, dragging down demand. The upward height depends on the cold - repair progress, and prices are in an oscillating state [2] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market showed certain fluctuations, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The visit of the French President and the draft of the REITs policy may have an impact on the market. The short - term adjustment is accompanied by an optimistic medium - term trend [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 23.11 billion yuan. The market trend is a small - scale rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from actual interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and避险 attributes support the price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and避险 sentiment are short - term disturbing factors, and the long - term support for gold prices is strong [6] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in an oscillating state with an upward bias, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, and the inventory decreased. The supply pressure is improving, and prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [7] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price is differentiated, the cost support is enhanced, but the demand from paper mills is weak. Prices are expected to show weak oscillation [7] - **Offset Paper**: The spot - market price is stable, the supply is stable, orders are expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The demand for soybean raw materials is strong, but there are uncertainties in the bio - diesel policy. The production and inventory of palm oil are high, and exports are weak. The supply of domestic oils is abundant, and prices are expected to continue range - bound operation [7] - **Meals**: The supply of US soybeans is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [7] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, the supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughter - house operating rate may weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The raw - material price is supported, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, the inventory is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: OPEC+ suspended production increase, and the price is in wide - range oscillation due to strong supply and increased demand [10] - **PTA**: The cost end is loose, the short - term supply - demand is improved, but the industry will weaken seasonally. Prices follow the cost end [10] - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the price oscillates in the short term with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may rise due to cost drivers, but the upward range is limited [10] - **PF**: The rising oil price is beneficial to the market sentiment, but there is a wait - and - see attitude [10]

2025年12月2日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 悲观情绪修复, SCFI上行带动盘面上行,建议观望为主,运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月1日 | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1483.65点，较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13点,较上期上涨9.57点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.80点,较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1404USD/TEU,较上期上涨2.71% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profit and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see as the freight rate has no obvious fluctuations [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - After the rapid recovery of the market, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 28th, compared with November 24th: The NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77%; the SCFIS (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5%; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% [1]. - On November 28th: The SCFI announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71%; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1%; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79%; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was -9.2, forecast value was -8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Main Contract Data - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. If the market drops sharply, do not add positions and do not hold on to losing positions. Set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, and then wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Rules Adjustments - The daily limit and daily floor for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Western Land - Sea New Corridor - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of containerized goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. This year alone, the volume has exceeded 1.3 million TEUs, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profits and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly, but the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [1]. - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Main Contract Information - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of container goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. Among them, the number of TEUs sent this year has exceeded 1.3 million, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, roll screw, and glass are rated as "oscillating"; coal coke is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Financial: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds are "oscillating", with 10-year treasury bonds "rising"; Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are "oscillating" [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][4] - Light Industry: Logs are "oscillating at the bottom"; pulp, double-offset paper are "oscillating weakly" [4][6] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are "running in a range"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are "oscillating" [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are "oscillating strongly" [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber, PX are "oscillating"; PTA is "oscillating"; MEG is "oscillating widely"; PR is "on the sidelines"; PF is "on the sidelines" [11] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with individual sectors showing weak, strong, or rebounding trends. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international economic situations [2][3][4] - The black industry is facing challenges such as over - supply and weak demand, and prices are likely to remain oscillating [2] - The financial market is short - term adjusted but remains optimistic in the medium - term, with high - tech industries continuing to grow [3] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices likely to oscillate strongly [3][4] - The light industry is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with prices oscillating at the bottom or weakly [4][6] - The oilseeds and oils market is affected by factors such as US biodiesel policies and South American weather, with prices running in a range or oscillating [6] - The agricultural products market, especially the pig market, is affected by factors such as supply and demand and slaughter rates, with prices oscillating strongly [9] - The soft commodities market is affected by factors such as weather and downstream demand, with prices oscillating [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons, and daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The supply - demand surplus is hard to reverse, and prices will oscillate at a high level [2] - Coal coke: Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the market is worried about supply resumption, and the coke enterprises started the first price cut. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and prices will adjust weakly in the short - term [2] - Roll screw: Downstream demand is low, winter storage has not started, and prices will oscillate at the bottom. Whether steel prices can stop falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and inventory has decreased. However, real - estate completion affects demand, and whether prices can rise depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short - term but remains optimistic in the medium - term. High - tech industries are growing. China's economic sentiment is generally stable [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market trend is slightly rebounding [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. It is supported by factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Short - term Fed policies and geopolitical situations affect prices [3][4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by Fed policies and economic data, and prices are likely to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments decreased, imports and arrivals are changing, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing is at a record high, but bio - diesel policies are uncertain. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory are high, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to run in a range [6] - Meal: US soybean supply is structurally tight, but global supply is loose. Domestic supply is abundant, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight fluctuates, demand has recovered, and slaughter rates are rising. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and settlement prices may decline slightly next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather, production in some areas is low, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [11] - PX: Supply is strong, downstream demand is good, and prices will oscillate [11] - PTA: Cost is loose, short - term supply - demand is improving, and prices will follow cost fluctuations [11] - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and prices will oscillate with upward pressure [11] - PR: Cost is supported, but downstream follow - up is weak, and prices may rise with limited amplitude [11] - PF: Supply - demand is okay, and prices will oscillate without new news [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been slightly digested, with the near - month contracts showing weak and volatile trends, and the far - month contracts having a stronger downward amplitude possibly due to Red Sea resumption information. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Specific Summaries 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Price Indexes - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Market Conditions and Contract Information - On November 27, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.7, with a decline of 0.69%, a trading volume of 25,000 lots, and an open interest of 43,000 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [4]. - The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. 3.3 Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the main contract retracement and strong far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors can try to go long on the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range with a light position. Do not add positions when the market drops sharply, and set stop - losses. For the arbitrage strategy, due to the large fluctuations under the unstable international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. 3.4 Other Information - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. In the US, the service PMI preliminary value in October was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [3][4]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The Sino - US tariff issue is still resolved in the form of an extension in the short term. The logic of the freight rate trend returns to traditional seasonality and the issue of when the Red Sea will resume navigation [4].