Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS and SCFI indices have significantly increased, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after reaching a high due to pre - holiday caution about funds. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5][6]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the US - West route was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI preliminary value was 53.1, better than both the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [5]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [5]. 3.3 Futures Market - On December 29, the main contract 2602 closed at 1822.9, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 24,400 lots and an open interest of 30,400 lots, a decrease of 1412 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract reached a new high, and it has been recommended to take full profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - SCFIS has significantly increased, but the futures market has fallen after reaching a high due to pre - holiday caution towards funds. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][5][6] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has had a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Indexes - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2] - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period [4] - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous and expected values, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [5] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected and previous values of 54.6 [5] Futures Market - On December 29, the main contract 2602 closed at 1822.9, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 24,400 lots and an open interest of 30,400 lots, down 1412 lots from the previous day [6] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high, and it is recommended to take all profits. It is advisable to wait and see for the short term and not to add more positions [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [7] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7] Geopolitical News - On December 28, local time, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed a tri - lateral military cooperation work plan for 2026 with military representatives from Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, and also signed bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has no clear trading direction, the price fluctuates, and investors should pay attention to potential reversal signals. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short - term [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1] - In the context of international situation turmoil, contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [1] - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach a high, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Index - On December 26, the NCFI (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1589.20 points, up 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 1144.37 points, up 7.22%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 962.10 points, up 4.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% [1] - On December 26, the SCFI was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European line price was 11690 USD/TEU, up 10.24%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1] 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, staying above the boom - bust line of 50. The service industry PMI preliminary value was 53.1, better than expected [1] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected - 7, previous value - 7.4 [1] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, expected 54.6, previous value 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [1] 3.3 Market and Contract Information - On December 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1824.5, up 0.161%, with a trading volume of 2.66 million lots and an open interest of 31,800 lots, down 2401 lots from the previous day [1] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [1] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [1] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has no clear trading direction, with the market fluctuating. Traders should pay attention to potential reversal signals. It is recommended to take profits and then adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - Amid the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [1]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1589.20 points, up 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 1144.37 points, up 7.22%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 962.10 points, up 4.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% [1]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 11690 USD/TEU, up 10.24%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [1]. - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [1]. 3.3 Contract Information - On December 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1824.5, with a gain of 0.161%, a trading volume of 2.66 million lots, and an open interest of 31,800 lots, down 2401 lots from the previous day [1]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After MSK's first passage through the Red Sea, the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, suggesting a potential reversal signal. Investors are advised to take profits and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. The core of the freight rate trend lies in traditional seasonality and the resumption of Red Sea shipping, and the current spot price has slightly declined. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the main contract has had a seasonal rebound, so light - position participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. With the fading of optimistic sentiment and the withdrawal of long - position funds, the market is under pressure and fluctuating weakly, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indexes - On December 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 962.10 points, up 4.1% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period [3]. - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary composite PMI value in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The service industry and manufacturing industry were differentiated, with the service industry PMI value at 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business sentiment. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023. The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [4]. Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 24, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.8, with a decline of 1.63%, a trading volume of 23,700 lots, and an open interest of 34,300 lots, a decrease of 688 lots from the previous day [4]. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: Since the main contract has reached a new high, it is recommended to take all profits and adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term, and not to add more positions. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Rebounding [8] - Palm oil: Rebounding [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebounding [8] - Soybean meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 1: Weakly oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating [10] - Rubber: Oscillating [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Widely oscillating [12] - MEG: Oscillating at a low level [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features a loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories in 2026, with new global mine production increasing by 64 - 65 million tons, outpacing the growth of crude steel production. Real - demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a definite negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds offer opportunities to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke are supported by capacity inspections, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license system shifts market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives, impacting raw material demand and prices [2]. - The sentiment in the rebar market is boosted by policies emphasizing domestic demand, and the black sector has rebounded. The steel export license system requires a downward adjustment of steel export expectations for next year, and the impact of potential crude steel production control policies should be noted [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand imbalance. Although there is a cold - repair expectation for some production lines before the Spring Festival, supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate completion [2]. - In the financial market, the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasizes the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies. The new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" guides more foreign investment. The power consumption data shows growth, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple factors such as the US debt issue, geopolitical risks, and increased Chinese physical gold demand support the upward trend of gold prices, despite short - term fluctuations [6]. - Logs have a supply - demand pattern of weakening supply pressure and relatively weak demand, with prices expected to oscillate. Pulp has a loose supply - demand situation, and prices may remain oscillating. Offset paper prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term [6][8]. - In the oil and oilseed market, the demand for oils is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by the strengthening of crude oil. The soybean market has a relatively loose supply, and prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a complex relationship between supply and demand. The average trading weight may decline, and the average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in major producing areas and a demand - side support that is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX and PTA having wide - range oscillations, MEG having low - level oscillations, and PR and PF being on the sidelines [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase significantly, with real demand weakening due to factors like falling hot - metal production and high plate inventories. The steel export license system is a negative for raw materials, and short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supported by capacity inspections and anti - involution policies, but the steel export license system changes market expectations, affecting raw material demand and prices [2]. - Rebar: Policy boosts market sentiment, and the black sector rebounds. The steel export license system requires adjusting export expectations, and the impact of crude steel production control policies should be watched [2]. - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance persists, with cold - repair expectations not fully met, and demand weakening due to the real - estate situation [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends, and the market is affected by central bank policies and industry - specific capital flows [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a short - term net cash withdrawal by the central bank [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors support the upward trend, with short - term fluctuations affected by interest - rate policies and geopolitical risks [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias, affected by macro - economic data and geopolitical factors [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is relatively weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][8]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose, and prices may remain oscillating [8]. - Offset paper: Prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term, with potential large - scale price fluctuations [8]. Oil and Oilseeds - Oils: Demand is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by crude oil. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [8]. - Meal and soybeans: Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with short - term rebounds possible, and attention should be paid to multiple uncertainties [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may change, and demand is affected by festivals. The average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient, inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices have wide - range oscillations, affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships in the polyester industry [12]. - MEG: Prices oscillate at a low level, with long - term inventory pressure and short - term supply - side changes to be watched [12]. - PR and PF: The market is on the sidelines, with different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost situations [12]

2025年12月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK商船首次通行红海，盘面冲高回落下，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1589.20点，较上期上涨5.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1094.77点，较上期上涨3.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）962.10点，较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1228.34点，较上期上涨19.28% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1552.92点，较上期上涨46.46点 | 12月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1533USD/TEU，较上期下跌0.33% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated December 24, 2025, focusing on shipping research [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On December 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 962.10 points, up 4.1% [3] - On December 19, SCFI published price was 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33%; SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% [4] - On December 19, NCFI (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20%; NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30%; NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% [5] - On December 19, CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [5] - On December 23, the main contract 2602 closed at 1806.6, down 0.86%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1506 lots from the previous day [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50; the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1, better than expected [6] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [6] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, better than expected; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [6] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategies - Spot freight rate increases were lower than expected, and long - positions taking profits led to downward pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [7] - Short - term strategy: After the main contract reached a new high, it was recommended to take full profits and wait and see, not to add positions [8] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [8] - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when contracts reached high levels and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [8] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Information - On December 22, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman emphasized that Iran's missile program is for self - sovereignty, and its defense capabilities will not be a negotiation topic. He also pointed out that Israel's aggression is the root cause of the Middle East's problems [9]