2025年12月30日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS大幅上行,或因节前对资金态度,盘面冲高回落,已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月29日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1742.64点, 较上期上涨9.7% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.41点, 较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点,较上期上涨103.4点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU,较上期上涨9.84% 12月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% | | 12月26日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）112 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-30） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿自身高供给、弱需求、高库存格局不变。当下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁水有所企稳、但板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期升温，现 | | | | 震荡 | 实需求疲弱。近期政策面有三项较为重要的变化，一是出 | | | 铁矿石 | | 口许可管理，二是发改委强调明年开始有效管控双高项 | | | | | 目，三是高层扩内需的强调，短期产生利多情绪。同时较 | | | | | 为明显的低库存+钢厂节前补库预期逻辑，铁矿石期货暂 | | | | | 时忽略了需求淡季和库存高位的现实压力，延续技术性反 | | | | | 弹。长期做空机会的入场节点，需要等补库兑现之后再行 | | | | | 考虑。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：焦炭第四轮提降预计月底提，预计 1 月初落地。年 | | | | | 底产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政策的 | | | | | 预期，煤焦仍有支撑 ...

2025年12月30日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS大幅上行,或因节前对资金态度,盘面冲高回落,已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55,预期54.6,前值54.8。美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8,为连续第二个月上涨,预期54.6,前值54.6, 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月29日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1742.64点, 较上期上涨9.7% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.41点, 较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点,较上期上涨103.4点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU ...

2025年12月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场暂无明确交易方向，盘面震荡运行，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月26日 12月22日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% 12月26日 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1656.32点、较上期上涨103.4点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点,较上期上涨0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格11690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点,较上期上涨0.2% 上海出口集 ...

2025年12月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场暂无明确交易方向，盘面震荡运行，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月26日 12月22日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% 12月26日 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1656.32点、较上期上涨103.4点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点,较上期上涨0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格11690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点,较上期上涨0.2% 上海出口集 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

2025年12月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK商船首次通行红海，盘面冲高回落下，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1589.20点，较上期上涨5.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1094.77点，较上期上涨3.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）962.10点，较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1228.34点，较上期上涨19.28% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1552.92点，较上期上涨46.46点 | 12月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1533USD/TEU，较上期下跌0.33% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 求整体偏弱，库存压力高，关注宏观以及产线冷修情况能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 否给市场带来契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录 0.29%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录-0.08%，中证 500 股指收录 1.31%，中 | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 证 1000 股指收录 1.54%。化纤行业、航天军工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，保险、煤炭板块呈现资金净流出。央行货币 | | | | | 政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要 | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用 | | | | | 多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势 | | | | | 和金融市场运行情 ...

2025年12月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK商船首次通行红海，盘面冲高回落下，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1589.20点，较上期上涨5.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1094.77点，较上期上涨3.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）962.10点，较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1228.34点，较上期上涨19.28% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1552.92点，较上期上涨46.46点 | 12月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1533USD/TEU，较上期下跌0.33% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

2025年12月24日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价涨幅不及预期，叠加多头止盈离场，盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月22日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨3.20% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1228.34点, 较上期上涨19.28% | | 12月19日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点，较上期上涨0.2% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (美西航线) 792.06点, 较上期下跌0.9% | 欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数 ...