交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 25 日星期四 | | | | 国，在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中，将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。商务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 部召开新闻吹风会介绍，这是中方坚定维护多边贸易体制、积极落实全球 | | | | | 发展倡议和全球治理倡议的重要举措，必将为促进全球贸易投资自由化便 | | | | | 利化注入强心剂。商务部强调，中国仍然是世界上最大的发展中国家，中 | | | 中证 1000 | 反弹 | 国发展中国家的地位和身份没有改变。《中国地方政府债券蓝皮书（2025）》 | | | | | 披露，2025 年地方政府债券呈现三大特点：一是新增限额大幅增加、发 | | | | | 行规模再创新高；二是置换节奏明显前置、新增债发行相对偏慢；三是投 | | 2 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 向领域进一步拓宽、用于基建项目的专项债额度有所减少。展望未来，财 | | | | | 政发力仍是当前扩大有效需求、提振信心和预期、扭转信用收缩趋势的优 | | | | | 先选 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the market has declined again. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not advisable to hold positions stubbornly [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic, with large fluctuations. The core of the movement is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index Changes - On September 22, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 13.24% to 783.71 points, the SCFIS (European route) dropped 12.9% to 1254.92 points, the NCFI (European route) dropped 7.65% to 673.61 points, the SCFIS (US West route) dropped 11.6% to 1193.64 points, and the NCFI (US West route) dropped 23.30% to 944.89 points [3]. - On September 19, compared with the previous period, the SCFl announced price dropped 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points, the SCFI European route price dropped 8.8% to 1052 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) dropped 6.2% to 1537.28 points, the SCFI US West route dropped 31.0% to 1636 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) dropped 2.2% to 757.45 points [3]. Economic Data - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI initial value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest level since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Market and Contract Information - On September 23, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 28,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a ship heard an explosion about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen. The ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine. Since the new round of the Israel - Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have caused more than 60,000 Palestinian deaths, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating bullish [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillating [5] - Pulp: Bottom - range consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On - the - sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: On - the - sidelines [11] - PR: On - the - sidelines [11] - PF: On - the - sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as scheduled. After the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policies, international relations, and economic data. It is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current position for stock index long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has slightly declined, but the global shipping volume is still at a high level in recent years. The arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The daily average pig iron output has rebounded, driving up demand. Steel mills' profit ratio has declined, but the motivation for active production cuts is still insufficient. The iron ore 2601 contract is adjusting at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The suspension news from coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti - involution" have pushed up the double - coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season has boosted demand. Some coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase [2]. - **Rebar and coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine suspension news have affected the market. The output of finished products has slightly decreased, but the supply remains high. The apparent demand for five major steel products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure continues to rise. The real estate investment continues to decline, and the overall demand is weak. The cost increase has driven up the price of finished products, and the rebar 2601 contract is oscillating bullishly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has limited growth. The downstream deep - processing factory orders have slightly improved. The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect the production cost. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold - repair path [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. There was capital inflow in the banking and precious metals sectors and outflow in the catering, tourism, and education sectors. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current long - position for stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 1bp. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks affect the price. The Fed's interest rate cut and geopolitical risks support the bullish trend of gold and silver [4]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports has decreased. The arrival volume from New Zealand has declined, and the cost support has weakened. The spot price is stable, and the futures delivery willingness has increased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Double - gum paper**: The production is relatively stable, but it is in the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and it should be treated bearishly [5]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the inventory has risen. The export is weak. The US bio - fuel policy is controversial. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [5][6]. - **Meals**: The yield of US soybeans has been adjusted, and the export demand is weak. The domestic supply pressure is significant, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs may continue to rise slightly. The supply is abundant, the demand from the terminal market is weak, and the slaughter price has declined. The slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the cost in Hainan has decreased. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory has declined. The price is expected to oscillate widely [11]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX has potential supply risks; PTA's supply and demand have both increased, but the marginal supply - demand has weakened; MEG's supply pressure has increased; PR and PF are affected by geopolitical and cost factors. The market trends are complex, and some are recommended to be observed on the sidelines [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the bullish sentiment has faded. The market is weakening, and it is not recommended to add more positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Tariff issues have a marginal effect. In the short - term, wait for the market to bottom; in the long - term, take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Indexes - From September 19th to 22nd, multiple freight rate indexes declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 13.24%, the SCFIS (European route) fell 12.9%, and the NCFI (US West route) decreased 23.30% [3]. Economic Data - In August, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI all showed improvement. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - The US August manufacturing and services PMI data were better than expected [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop loss on long positions and wait for the bottoming opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to temporarily observe or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Market Conditions - On September 23rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 28,500 lots, and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4,522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23rd, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1254.92点,较上期下跌12.9% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1193.64点, 较上期下跌11.6% 9月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1198.21 点,较上期下跌199.90点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1052USD/TEU,较上期下跌8.8%% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1636USD/FEU,较上期下跌31.0% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 783.71点,较上期下跌13.24% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 673.61点, 较上期下跌7.65% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 944.89点, 较上期下跌23.30% 9月19日 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1125.30点,较上期下跌2.1% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1537.28点,较上期下跌6.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (美西航线) 757.45点, 较上期下跌2.2% 欧元区8月制造业PMI初值为50.5，预估为49.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - For short - term strategies, the main contract remains weak, and it is advisable to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. For arbitrage strategies, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when the contract price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [4]. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of business production and operation activities [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [3]. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, with a 2.00% increase, a trading volume of 4.49 million lots, and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

| | | | 9月15日 | 9月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1440.24点，较上期下跌8.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）783.71点，较上期下跌13.24% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1349.84 点，较上期上涨37.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）673.61点，较上期下跌7.65% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）944.89点，较上期下跌23.30% | | 9月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1198.21 点，较上期下跌199.90点 | 9月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1052USD/TEU，较上期下跌8.8%％ | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1125.30点，较上期下跌2.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1636USD/FEU, 较上期下跌31.0% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1537.28点，较上期下跌6.2% | | | 中国出口集 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].