Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has slightly declined, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market is fluctuating weakly with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when a profit margin of over 300 is achieved. For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [4]. - For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [2]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; for the US - West route, it was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; for the US - West route, it was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [2]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; for the US - West route, it was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [2]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [3]. 3.3 Market News and Policy - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits transit trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [4]. - On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against two Israeli military targets and the Haifa port, and an Israeli air defense system shot down a drone from Yemen. There were no casualties reported [4]. - On August 1, the WTO reported that the global service trade growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 slowed to 5%, about half of the growth rates in 2024 and 2023. Service trade exports in Europe and North America only increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the data in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, Asia maintained a strong growth of 9%. Financial service exports increased by 3% year - on - year, reflecting a decrease in investment activities due to increased global economic uncertainty [4]. 3.4 Contract Information - On August 4, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1421.8, with a decline of 0.72%, a trading volume of 3.03 million lots, and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The shipping market is currently facing a complex situation with geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating freight rates. Due to the high difficulty of market gaming, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts, but overall, risk control through stop - loss settings is emphasized [1][4]. 3. Content Summary 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index on August 1 was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2]. - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [3]. 3.3 Market Events - Trump's tariff policy: Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [4]. - Geopolitical events: On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against Israeli military targets and a port. Israel's national security minister entered the Al - Aqsa Mosque area, which was condemned by Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when there is a profit margin of over 300 points. For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and no position - holding against losses is recommended, with stop - losses set [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try lightly with a small position [4]. - **Long - term strategy**: For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On August 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1421.8, down 0.72%, with a trading volume of 3.03 million lots and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coking coal, coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash: High-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index, 2-year Treasury bond, 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold, silver: High-level oscillation [4][6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Oscillation [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2: Strong oscillation [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Weak oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Wait-and-see [10][11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of iron ore is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - The coke oven has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to a large recent increase, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The steel market's supply-demand pressure may increase, and short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations [2] - The market's speculation sentiment for glass has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - The oil market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the molten iron production is still at a high level. The fundamentals are temporarily okay. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels, and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal supply recovers slowly, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. The coke has had five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the supply-demand pressure of the steel market may increase. The short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations, and consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation, affected by factors such as US economic data and tariff policies [4][6] Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - **Logs**: The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production growth of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may continue to increase. The demand for domestic oils is warming up, and the oils market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - **Meals**: The supply of soybean meal is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to be tight, and the demand for tires shows a differentiated trend. The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] Polyester Products - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]

2025年8月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多数大宗商品持续下跌，观望情绪较浓，盘面宽幅震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月1日 7月28日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1087.66点，较上期下跌2.06% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1372.67点，较上期下跌3.53% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1114.45点，较上期下跌0.54% 8月1日 8月1日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1550.74点，较上期下跌41.85点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1232.29点，较上期下跌2.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2051USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.86% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1789.50点，较上期上涨0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2021USD/FEU, ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: High-level oscillation for iron ore, coking coal, rolled steel, and glass [2] - **Financial Industry**: Rebound for SSE 50 Index Futures/Options; oscillation for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds; high-level oscillation for gold and silver; weak operation for pulp; oscillation for logs; oscillation for oils and fats; strong oscillation for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2; oscillation for soybean No. 1; weak oscillation for live pigs; oscillation for rubber; wait-and-see for PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF [3][4][6][8][10][11] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are fair, but there are risks of adjustment after the release of short-term sentiment. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The demand for steel is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure may increase. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly, and attention should be paid to the improvement of actual demand [2] - **Financial Industry**: The upward momentum of the market is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures. The trend of Treasury bonds is falling back, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry and Agricultural Products**: The price of pulp is expected to run weakly, and the price of logs is expected to oscillate. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate, and the price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly. The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester**: The price of rubber is expected to maintain a firm trend. The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different states, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of short-term adjustment after the release of sentiment. The total global iron ore shipment is 32 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 918,000 tons, and the supply remains loose. The iron ore arrival has declined in the past two weeks, and it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The iron water output has decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons month-on-month, but it is still at a high level. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the recent large increase, the exchange has adjusted the limit for coking coal, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the willingness of downstream to receive high-priced resources has decreased. Coke has completed four rounds of price increases, and the fifth round has not been implemented yet. Steel mills have high profits, high iron water output, and are actively purchasing coke [2] - **Rolled Steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products are fair, the output is flat, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The start-up rate is basically stable, and the weekly melting volume has increased slightly. The downstream inventory has room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The performance of the previous trading day was mixed, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, will be subject to VAT. The state will accelerate the approval and establishment of new policy-based financial instruments, and the issuance of government bonds is expected to speed up. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 66.33 billion yuan on the day. It is recommended to hold long positions of Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The debt problem in the United States may worsen, and the de-dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has decreased marginally. The short-term data in the United States has affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - **Paper Pulp**: The spot market price of paper pulp is differentiated, with the price of softwood pulp continuing to decline and the price of hardwood pulp remaining stable. The ex-works price of softwood pulp has decreased, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is low, the inventory pressure of paper mills is large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the paper pulp price will run weakly [6] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the demand is in the seasonal off-season. The shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in June has increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The expected arrival volume this week is 221,000 cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 54%. The inventory at ports has decreased by 120,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is running strongly, and the cost support has increased. It is expected that the log price will oscillate [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The aging of oil palm trees in Malaysia may limit production growth, and the export in July has declined. India will continue to actively import palm oil before the Diwali Festival in mid-October, and the demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is expected to be good. The international oil price fluctuates, affecting the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel. The domestic import of soybeans in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats continues to increase. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will oscillate [6][8] - **Meal and Beans**: The result of the Sino-US trade negotiation is not as expected, and the import tariff of US soybeans remains high. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is high due to concentrated demand. The US soybean production area supports a good harvest, but the weather in August is uncertain. The domestic supply pressure is significant, the soybean arrival volume in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is high and may continue to accumulate. The demand is weak, and the feed demand is expected to shrink. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will oscillate strongly [8] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline, with a national average of 124.91 kilograms. The slaughtering enterprise has increased the purchase of low-price standard pigs, and the average purchase weight has decreased. The average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, but the price has declined from the high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has decreased to 31.97%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.97 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises will continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has led to an expected shortage of rubber supply in Southeast Asia, and the raw material prices in Thailand and China are firm. The supply in the main natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad is affected by weather factors, and the raw material supply is tight, pushing up the purchase price. The demand for the domestic tire industry has shown a differentiated trend, with the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 1.93 percentage points to 70.7% and that of full-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 62.2%. The inventory of rubber at Qingdao Port has decreased slightly. It is expected that the price of natural rubber will remain firm [10] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: Under the pressure of OPEC+ production increase, the oil price has room to fall, the PTA load has oscillated and declined, and the polyester load has slightly oscillated. The short-term PXN spread is relatively strong, and the PX price fluctuates with the oil price. The cost of PTA has oscillated and weakened, the overall supply has recovered slowly, and the downstream polyester factory load has shown a slight downward trend. The MEG arrival volume has begun to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate. The supply of PR is stable, and the demand side replenishes goods at low prices. The demand for PF is insufficient, and the cost side may also be weak. It is recommended to wait and see for these products [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

2025年8月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% | | 7月25日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "High - level Volatility"; Rebar (RB2601) and Iron Ore (I2601) suggest a strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are rated as "Volatility"; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Volatility" (10 - year is "Decline"); Gold is rated as "High - level Volatility"; Silver is rated as "High - level Decline" [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Correction"; Logs are rated as "Volatility"; Oils and Fats (including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) are rated as "Volatility with an Uptrend Bias"; Meal (including soybean meal and rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Volatility" [5] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Volatility with a Downtrend Bias" [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Volatility"; PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See" [10][11][12] 2. Core Views - The overall performance of the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, which may lead to a continued weakening of market trading enthusiasm. Policy - related production cuts and restrictions in the future need to be closely watched [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the second half of the year, and to promote investment and consumption [4] - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies [4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Although recent arrivals have declined, they are expected to rebound seasonally. Iron ore fundamentals are currently stable, but there are risks of policy - driven production cuts and restrictions. A strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" is recommended [2] - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the trading limit for coking coal due to recent sharp price increases. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources has decreased. Coke has seen four consecutive rounds of price increases, and there is an expectation of a fifth round [2] - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, building material demand has declined, and steel inventories have started to rise from a low level. The short - term steel industry still has expectations of stable growth, and the same "Long RB2601, Short I2601" strategy is recommended [2] - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and market sentiment has improved, leading to increased downstream stocking. However, real - estate demand is still weak, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting emphasized efforts to achieve annual goals. Market upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates have rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics. Although there are short - term pressures, the upward - driving logic has not reversed. Silver has declined due to factors such as the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision and hawkish remarks [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp has decreased, and the paper - making industry's demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation is weak, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6] - **Logs**: Log demand is in the off - season, but furniture exports are favorable. The cost of logs is rising, and supply pressure is not significant. Log prices are expected to remain stable with some volatility [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and demand is recovering. Domestic oil inventories are increasing. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and palm oil production and sales [6] - **Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support, and soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean No.1**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply of live pigs is increasing. High - temperature weather restricts consumption demand, and slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to decline slightly, with pig prices likely to fall week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and the Thai - Cambodian conflict, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber inventories at Qingdao Port are decreasing, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm [10][11] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX supply is tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices. PTA supply recovery is slow, and demand is weakening. MEG supply pressure is increasing. PR and PF are facing cost and demand challenges, and all are in a wait - and - see situation [10][11][12]

2025年8月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% | | 7月25日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2 ...