Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Due to the market's long - short game and the weakening of bullish sentiment, there are doubts about the subsequent freight rate trend, and the main contract has risen and then fallen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Freight Rate Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and better than the expected value [2]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3]. c. Main Contract Information - On December 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1699.8, with a decline of 0.68%, a trading volume of 24,200 lots, and an open interest of 32,000 lots, a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [3]. d. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to take a light - position long on the main contract, and all positions have been advised to take profit. No additional positions are recommended, and no holding of losing positions is advised. Stop - loss should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profit when rising, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Due to the possible decline of market optimism and the latest quotes of some liner companies falling short of expectations, the market fluctuates downward. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Indexes - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The euro - zone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2]. - The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business conditions. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategies - On December 16, the main contract 2602 closed at 1686.8, down 1.62%, with a trading volume of 27,800 lots and an open interest of 32,500 lots, a decrease of 582 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions have been advised to take profit. No further position - adding or holding losses is recommended, and stop - losses should be set [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts have been advised to take profit when rising, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Stronger [9] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: Weakly oscillating [11] - PTA: Weakly oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features "ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories." In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel exports with licenses will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information from the Central Economic Work Conference. Steel export licensing will limit exports, shifting market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support coal and coke prices [2]. - The steel market is affected by export licensing, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. The real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent decline in prices in the Shahe area. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress [2]. - In the financial market, the previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support gold prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - The log market has seen a decrease in daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - The pulp market has a differentiated spot price. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - The oil market has high US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - The live pig market has a stable overall supply, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. - The rubber market has different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in oil prices. The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA is seasonally weakening. The long - term inventory pressure of MEG exists, and the polyester bottle - chip and polyester fiber markets are also under pressure [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel export licensing will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coal and coke: Affected by the lack of incremental policy information, the market shifted expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support prices [2]. - Rolled steel: Export licensing affects exports, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. Real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand is weak. Prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Prices in the Shahe area have declined. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by real estate completion, and the price trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, affected by supply and demand and cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was flat, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1.8 billion yuan. The bond market is in a short - term rebound trend [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, oscillating with an upward bias [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume have decreased. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable. Some production has resumed in Shandong, and supply pressure remains. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: High US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - Meals: A relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Polyester - PX: Market concerns about future supply surplus are obvious. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, and oil prices have fallen. The supply is high, and the price is affected by oil prices [11]. - PTA: The cost side is loosened due to the decline in oil prices. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [11]. - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. The price is expected to oscillate with upward pressure [11]. - PR: Affected by the decline in oil prices and general demand, the polyester bottle - chip market may continue to be weak [11]. - PF: Although the current price of polyester staple fiber is low and the enterprise inventory is low, the large decline in oil prices may lead to price oscillation in the near future [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The market's optimism has diminished, some liner companies' latest quotes are below expectations, and the market fluctuated downward under the game between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 and remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2] - The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2] - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it fell below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [3] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 16, the main contract 2602 closed at 1686.8, with a decline of 1.62%, a trading volume of 27,800 lots, and an open interest of 32,500 lots, a decrease of 582 lots from the previous day [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions have been advised to take profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profits when the price rises to a high level, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pullback [4] 3.5 Contract Rules Adjustments - The price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening - position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pre - holiday shipments drove a small increase in freight rates, and the futures market fluctuated upward, in line with the daily report's expectations. All positions were advised to take profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Information - **Freight Rate Indexes**: - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] - **Economic Data**: - The euro - zone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, dropping below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [2][3] - **Market Conditions of the Main Contract**: On December 15, the main contract 2602 closed at 1746.0, with a gain of 3.30%, a trading volume of 28,300 lots, and an open interest of 33,100 lots, an increase of 1401 lots from the previous day [3] - **Trading Strategies**: - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to take a light - position long on the main contract. All positions were advised to take profits, no additional positions were recommended, and no holding of losing positions was advised. Stop - losses should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still followed the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: All contracts were advised to take profits when reaching high levels, wait for a pull - back and stabilization, and then judge the subsequent direction. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] - **Geopolitical Event**: On December 14, the Qassam Brigades, an armed wing of Hamas, confirmed that its military manufacturing department head, Rad Said Saad, was killed in an Israeli attack, which was said to have violated the cease - fire agreement [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating, with a weakening trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybeans No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features a "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" situation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information after the Central Economic Work Conference, and the change from supply - side policy expectation to demand - side negative expectation due to the steel export policy. However, some short - term factors provide support [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is affected by the steel export policy and weak domestic demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - The glass and soda ash markets are facing weak demand, and the future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market, including stock index futures/options and Treasury bonds, is influenced by economic data and policy signals. The market shows different trends such as oscillation, rebound, and consolidation [4]. - The precious metals market, with gold and silver, is supported by the central bank's gold - buying behavior, de - dollarization, and geopolitical risks in the long - term, but short - term factors like the Ukraine peace talks and economic data can cause fluctuations [6]. - The wood and pulp market, including logs, pulp, and offset paper, has different supply - demand situations. Logs are expected to consolidate at the bottom, pulp may normalize to a supply - demand - balanced situation, and offset paper is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The edible oils and meal market, including various oils and meals, is affected by factors such as US soybean policies, South American soybean production expectations, and domestic supply - demand relationships, with prices oscillating weakly [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply, some improvement in demand, but overall prices are expected to decline [8]. - The soft commodity and polyester market, including rubber and various polyester products, has different supply - demand and price trends. Rubber is expected to oscillate weakly, and polyester products show various trends such as wide - range oscillation, weak oscillation, and sidelining [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing quarterly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative for raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: After the Central Economic Work Conference, there was a lack of incremental policy information. The steel export policy shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production reduction expectations, and the "anti - involution" strategy provide some support [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Domestic demand, especially in the real estate sector, is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Glass and soda ash: Glass prices are weakening, with low processing orders and high inventory. The cold - repair plan of some glass factories is being delayed. Soda ash is also in a weak situation, and the future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: On the previous trading day, major stock indices showed declines. The publication of President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand. Economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and retail sales show the current economic situation [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend shows a slight rebound [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold - buying. Gold has strong support from factors such as de - dollarization,避险需求, and central bank purchases in the long - term. Short - term factors like the Ukraine peace talks and economic data can cause price fluctuations [6]. Wood and Pulp - Logs: Port daily shipment volume and national daily delivery volume are decreasing. Import volumes from New Zealand and domestic imports are also decreasing. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices are running weakly. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot market prices are weakening, but cost support is increasing. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory, with poor demand. Under the influence of positive factors, prices are trending upward, but may return to a supply - demand - balanced situation [7]. - Offset paper: Spot market prices are stable. There is still supply pressure, and demand is weak overall. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Edible Oils and Meal - Edible oils: US soybean crushing is at a high level, but the renewable energy blending obligation in 2026 is uncertain. Malaysian palm oil exports are decreasing, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively loose. US soybean has no export advantage, and the market has high expectations for South American soybean harvest. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The settlement price is falling, and terminal demand growth is limited. Although slaughtering rates are increasing, prices are expected to decline [8]. Soft Commodity and Polyester - Rubber: Different rubber - producing regions have different supply situations. Demand is affected by tire enterprise capacity utilization. Inventory is accumulating seasonally, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating due to factors such as crude oil inventory and supply - demand relationships. PTA, MEG, PR, and PF show different price trends based on their respective supply - demand and cost situations [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints -节前 shipping volume led to a slight increase in freight rates, and the market oscillated upward, meeting the daily report's expectations. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, Middle - East situations, and spot freight rates [1][3]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Freight Rate Index - On December 15, SCFIS (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% [2]. - On December 12, NCFI (composite index) was 1060.86 points, up 10.23%; NCFI (European route) was 1064.13 points, up 9.98%; NCFI (US West route) was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% [2]. - On December 12, SCFI was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points; SCFI (European route) was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86%; SCFI (US West route) was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% [2]. - On December 12, CCFI (composite index) was 1118.07 points, up 0.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1470.55 points, up 1.6%; CCFI (US West route) was 798.95 points, down 2.3% [2]. b. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMW was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service industry PMM was 53.1, better than expected [2]. - The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected - 7, previous value - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, expected 54.6, previous value 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3]. c. Market Conditions - On December 15, the main contract 2602 closed at 1746.0, up 3.30%, with a trading volume of 28,300 lots and an open interest of 33,100 lots, an increase of 1401 lots from the previous day [3]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions were advised to take profit. No additional positions were recommended, and no positions should be held against losses. Stop - losses should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract was advised to take profit when reaching a high, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].

| 2025年12月15日 集运日报 | | (航运研究/组) | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货货量偏暖,盘面偏强震荡,符合日报预期,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 | | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | | 12月8日 | | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线) 1509.10点,较上期上涨1.7% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1060.86点,较上期上涨10.23% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点,较上期上涨1.2% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1064.13点, 较上期上涨9.98% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1029.8点,较上期上涨17.28% | | 12月12日 | | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1506.461 点, 较上期上涨108.83点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1538USD/TEU,较上期上涨9.86% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [7] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [10] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [10] - Live pigs: Weakening [10] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is declining month-on-month, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit management system for steel exports will limit exports and negatively impact raw materials. It is advisable to look for opportunities to sell on rebounds [2]. - The coal - coking market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information in the Central Economic Work Conference. The permit management system for steel exports has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, there is still downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and some participants are worried about policy reversals, which supports coal and coke prices [2]. - The rebar market has low downstream demand, and winter restocking has not yet started. It remains in an oscillating state. The core lies in steel demand, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by over 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent weakening in prices. Processing orders are in a downturn, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has been decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on the progress of cold repairs [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of major Chinese economic indicators is better than expected. In 2026, policies will be introduced to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the medium - term trend remains positive [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute has become prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support for gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [7]. - The log market has seen an increase in port shipments, but the demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure may gradually ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - The pulp market's spot price has weakened. Although cost support has increased, the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. The price may return to a supply - demand - driven oscillating state after the digestion of positive news [8]. - The oil and fat market has uncertainties in demand due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and weak exports. Although there is support from raw material costs and seasonal palm oil production cuts, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - The soybean meal market has a relatively loose global supply. The US soybean has no export advantage, and the market expects a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a stable overall supply, but the demand growth is limited. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in some regions due to weather. The demand side is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The PX market has a high supply, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating. The PTA market's cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand has improved, but it will deteriorate seasonally. The MEG market has a long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, new global mine production will increase significantly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit system for steel exports is negative for raw materials. Look for selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by policy information and the steel export policy, the market has shifted from supply - side expectations to demand - side concerns. However, downstream restocking demand and policy concerns support prices [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and winter restocking has not started. It oscillates, and the core lies in steel demand. Steel prices depend on production cuts and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: Prices are weakening, processing orders are few, demand is insufficient. Although inventory is decreasing, it is higher than last year. Cold - repair progress determines price trends [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, it is in a weak state [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The financial data in November showed good performance, and the central economic work meeting released positive signals. The market's bullish sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is slightly rebounding. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market is affected by monetary policy [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases becoming crucial. The US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese central bank's gold - buying support prices. The Fed's interest - rate policy is a short - term factor [7]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias [7]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and出库量 are increasing, but demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. Supply pressure may ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Pulp: Spot prices have weakened, cost support has increased, but paper industry demand is weak. The price may return to an oscillating state [8]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable, supply changes little, and demand is weak. It is expected to weakly oscillate [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: There are uncertainties in demand due to policies and exports. Although there is cost support, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal: Global supply is loose, the US soybean has no export advantage, and South American harvest expectations are high. The domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and the average weekly price is expected to decline [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Polyester - PX: Supply is high, downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating [12]. - PTA: Cost is unstable, short - term supply - demand has improved but will deteriorate seasonally. The price follows the cost [12]. - MEG: Long - term inventory build - up pressure exists, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. - PR: The market may stop falling and stabilize [12]. - PF: The price may oscillate and consolidate [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot cargo volume is warm, the market is fluctuating strongly, in line with the daily report's expectations. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival shipping market, and freight rates show no obvious fluctuations. The core issue of freight rate trends lies in traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The impact of the tariff issue has become marginal [1][2]. - The eurozone's November comprehensive PMI remains above the boom - bust line, with a slight decline compared to October. The US November service and comprehensive PMI show positive trends. China's November manufacturing PMI improves, while the October comprehensive PMI output index drops below the boom - bust line [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2%. On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23%, for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98%, and for the US West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% [1]. - **SCFI, CCFI**: On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points; the European line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86%; the US West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) comprehensive index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3%; the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6%; the US West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% [1]. Economic Data - **Eurozone**: The eurozone's November comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5. The service PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous and expected values. The December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [1]. - **China**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2]. - **US**: The US November S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [2]. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the far - month contract's fluctuation slows down. Risk - takers are advised to take a small - position long in the main contract, then take all profits, not add more positions, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [2]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt [2]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [2]. Contract Information - On December 12, the main contract 2602 closed at 1677.8, up 0.32%, with a trading volume of 27,000 lots and an open interest of 31,700 lots, an increase of 41 lots from the previous day [2]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%, and the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].