Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rate increases fell short of expectations, and combined with long - position holders taking profits and leaving the market, the futures market faced downward pressure. It is recommended to take profits and then adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2][7] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [6] 3. Summary by Related Content Areas 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On December 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% from the previous period [3] - On December 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period [4] - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [5] 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and expected value. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [6] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [6] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [6] 3.3 Futures Market - On December 23, the main contract 2602 closed at 1806.6, down 0.86%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1506 lots from the previous day [7] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract reached a new high, and it was recommended to take all profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [8] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [8] - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [8] 3.5 Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [8] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [8] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [8]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-23） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | 震荡 | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | | 升温，现实需求疲弱。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最 | | | | | 直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口 | | | | | 的预期下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于 | | | | | 原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，短期因补库和宏观情 | | | | | 绪造成的反弹具备逢高介入空单的价值，突破前高紧止 | | | | 震荡 | 损。 | | | 煤焦 | | 煤焦：产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政 | | | | | 策的预期，煤焦仍有支撑。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度， | | | | | 最直接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take full profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. The NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period. The SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. The NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points on December 19, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period. The CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period. The SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period. The CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [1] PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business climate improving. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 but still above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, recording the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [2] Market and Contract Information - On December 19, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2] - The market's long - short game is fierce, with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend [1][2] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position and have been advised to take full profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3] - On December 19, Turkish, US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials held a meeting in Miami to discuss the implementation of the first - phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. Although there have been multiple violations, the cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, and the market is oscillating strongly, which is in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions have been advised to take profit. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1][2]. - The market is in a fierce long - short game with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SCFIS and NCFI Freight Indexes - On December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20%; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% [1]. - Also on December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1]. PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2]. - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1]. - The US November S&P Global Services PMI flash was 55, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global Composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.6 [2]. Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pull - back, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been advised to go long on the main contract lightly, and all positions have been advised to take profit. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [3]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profit when it reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. - Circuit - breaker limits: The circuit - breaker limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18%. - Margin requirements: The company's margin requirements for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 28%. - Intraday opening limits: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical News - On December 19th, officials from Turkey, the US, Qatar, and Egypt held a meeting in Miami, USA, to discuss the implementation of the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. The cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Silver: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Logs: Rebounding from the bottom [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [4] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish - biased [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Widely oscillating [9] - PTA: Widely oscillating [9] - MEG: Oscillating [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in 2026, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen a rebound due to improved sentiment and short - term fundamentals, but the implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction due to weakening demand and insufficient supply contraction, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold - repair situations [2]. - The financial market is in short - term shock adjustment, with the mid - term trend continuing and the high - tech industry growing. The gold price is affected by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies [3]. - The log market has weakening supply pressure and non - weak demand in the off - season, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom but with weak driving force [4]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The double - offset paper market has supply pressure and general social orders, and the price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. - The oil and fat market has uncertain demand prospects, high inventory pressure, and abundant supply, and is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose supply, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to factors such as the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply and increased downstream consumption demand, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The rubber market has supply affected by weather and demand with limited support, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with prices mainly affected by cost, supply - demand, and inventory factors [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global mine supply will increase significantly in 2026, while the current iron - making demand is weak, and the steel export policy is negative. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies, but the steel export policy has a negative impact on demand. Short - term, the price may be affected by the disappearance of export orders, and the long - term anti - involution policy provides some support [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, the steel export policy requires attention to production control and export expectations [2]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to weak demand and insufficient supply contraction. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom and may rebound due to sentiment [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is affected by policy arrangements and regulatory changes. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rebounding and some oscillating [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a state of consolidation with a slight rebound [3]. - **Precious metals**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies affect the price, which is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply pressure is weakening, and the demand is non - weak in the off - season. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the driving force is not strong [4]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, with cost support and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, and the social orders are general. The price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils and fats**: The demand prospects are uncertain, the inventory is high, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [7]. - **Meals**: The supply is relatively loose, affected by the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply is stable, the downstream consumption demand has increased slightly, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors increase supply risks, and the price is affected by oil prices. The demand from downstream polyester can support it for the time being [9]. - **PTA**: The cost end is affected by oil price fluctuations, and the short - term supply - demand is improved but will deteriorate in the future. The price follows the cost end [9]. - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term price oscillates with an upward suppression [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is strong, but the terminal demand restricts the price increase [9]. - **PF**: The cost is strong, but the demand is expected to shrink after New Year's Day, and the processing fee may be compressed [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Market sentiment is bearish, with a decline in bullish sentiment. Some liner companies' freight rates in early January are lower than the announced increases, and the main contract is fluctuating weakly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Shipping Index Data - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.6 [3]. Main Contract Data - On December 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1668.8, with a decline of 3.06%, a trading volume of 27,000 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, a decrease of 318 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers were previously advised to take a light - position long in the main contract, and now all positions are advised to be closed. No further positions are recommended, and no positions should be held without stop - loss. Stop - loss should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts are advised to take profit when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, and soda ash - rebound; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillation [2] - **Finance**: CSI 300 - oscillation; CSI 500 - rebound; CSI 1000 - rebound; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds - oscillation; 10 - year treasury bond - consolidation [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold, silver - high - level oscillation; Log - bottom rebound [6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - oscillation; Offset paper - weak oscillation; Vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil) - rebound; Meal products (soybean meal, rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, soybean No.1 - oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - **Agriculture**: Live pigs - relatively strong [9] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - oscillation; PX, PTA, MEG - oscillation; PR - wait - and - see; PF - wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: In 2026, global iron ore supply will increase significantly while demand is weak, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative for raw materials. For coal coke, market sentiment has shifted from supply - side policy expectations to demand - side concerns. The steel market has rebounded due to policy support and short - term fundamental improvements, and glass has rebounded due to price drops and cold repairs [2] - **Finance**: The investment downward pressure has increased in 2025, and the government will take measures to expand effective investment. The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is relatively stable [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term gold price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - **Light Industry**: The log market may bottom - rebound with weak drivers, the pulp market is in a supply - demand balance and will oscillate, and the vegetable oil market may rebound in the short - term, while the meal market is bearish [8] - **Agriculture**: The live pig market supply is stable, and with the increase in consumption and slaughter, the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] - **Soft Commodities**: The natural rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and the price will oscillate. The polyester market products are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand, showing different trends [12] 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with supply growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a negative for raw materials. The short - term rebound due to restocking and macro - sentiment is an opportunity to short [2] - **Coal Coke**: Capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations to demand - side concerns. Macro policies have a short - term positive impact, and short - sellers should stop losses [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Policy support and short - term fundamental improvements have led to a rebound in the black sector. The steel export policy requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Price drops, cold repairs, and inventory reduction have led to a rebound, but real - estate demand is weak, and the price will bottom - oscillate [2] Finance - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock index futures showed different trends on the previous trading day. The government will take measures to expand investment, and the market will oscillate in the short - term and continue the upward trend in the medium - term [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market is in a consolidation state with a slight rebound trend [4] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by interest rate policies and market sentiment, and will maintain high - level oscillation [6] - **Log**: Supply pressure may gradually weaken, demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price may bottom - rebound with weak drivers [6] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [8] - **Offset Paper**: Supply pressure exists, demand from publication orders provides support, and the price will weakly oscillate [8] - **Vegetable Oils**: After a continuous decline, the market may rebound in the short - term due to rising crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [8] - **Meal Products and Soybeans**: The supply is abundant, demand is uncertain, and the market is bearish, with attention to weather and trade risks [8] Agriculture - **Live Pigs**: Supply is stable, consumption has increased, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Weather affects production, demand support is insufficient, and the price will oscillate [12] - **Polyester Products**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, different products show different trends, such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [12]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract first rose and then fell, in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions were advised to be closed for profit [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Indicators - The euro - zone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value [2] - The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2] - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3] - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3] 3.3 Market Conditions - On December 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1699.8, down 0.68%, with a trading volume of 24,200 lots and an open interest of 32,000 lots, a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [3] - There is a long - short game in the market, and the bullish sentiment has declined. The main contract first rose and then fell [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, all positions were advised to be closed for profit, no additional positions or holding losses were recommended, and stop - losses should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: All contracts were advised to close for profit when the price rose, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] 3.5 Contract Regulations - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] 3.6 Geopolitical Event - On December 14, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas confirmed that its military manufacturing department head, Rad Said Saad, was killed in an Israeli attack, which violated the cease - fire agreement [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass all show a "rebound" trend; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 shows an "oscillation" trend [2] - **Financial Sector**: CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury, and 5 - year Treasury show an "oscillation" trend; CSI 500, CSI 1000 show a "rebound" trend; 10 - year Treasury is in "consolidation"; gold and silver show an "oscillation - strong" trend [4] - **Light Industry**: Logs show "bottom - oscillation"; pulp shows "oscillation"; double - offset paper shows "weak - oscillation" [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil show a "rebound" trend; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 show an "oscillation - bearish" trend [6] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs show a "strong" trend; rubber shows an "oscillation" trend [8] - **Polyester**: PX, PTA, and MEG show an "oscillation" trend; PR and PF are in a "wait - and - see" state [9] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation". The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor for raw materials. For coal coke, short - term factors such as capacity review and safety inspection boost the market, but the change in export policy may have a negative impact. The overall black sector rebounds due to short - term fundamental improvement and policy support [2] - **Financial Sector**: The market shows short - term oscillation and consolidation, with a continued medium - term upward trend. The high - tech industry continues to grow. The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect its price [4] - **Light Industry**: The log market is in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom. The pulp market is affected by cost and demand factors, and the price may return to an oscillatory state after the digestion of positive factors. The double - offset paper market is under supply pressure and is expected to show weak oscillation [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oil market rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices, but the demand outlook is uncertain. The meal market is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [6] - **Agricultural Products**: The pig market may see a slight increase in prices in the future due to factors such as increased consumption and stable supply. The rubber market is affected by supply and demand factors, with prices expected to oscillate [8] - **Polyester**: The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. The prices of various products are expected to show oscillatory or wait - and - see trends [9] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - water production is decreasing, steel - mill maintenance expectations are increasing, and real - world demand is weak. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds due to restocking and macro - sentiment are opportunities to enter short positions [2] - **Coal Coke**: Capacity review, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies boost market sentiment, but the change in export policy may lead to a shift in market expectations from supply - side positives to demand - side negatives [2] - **Rolled Steel and Glass**: The government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and short - term improvement in the steel fundamentals boost the black sector. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Glass rebounds due to factors such as price decline, macro - sentiment fermentation, and production - line cold - repair [2] 3.2 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The market is expected to maintain short - term oscillation and a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market shows a slight rebound. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy support its price in the medium and long term [4][5] 3.3 Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased, and the import volume from New Zealand and China decreased. This week, the expected arrival volume increased significantly. The spot - market price is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price of pulp is differentiated, and the increase in external - market prices strengthens cost support. However, due to the low profitability of the paper industry and high inventory pressure, demand is weak, and the price may return to an oscillatory state [5] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot - market price is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The demand from publication orders provides support, but social - order demand is average, and the price is expected to show weak oscillation [5] 3.4 Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The U.S. soybean crushing is at a high level, and the export of Malaysian palm oil is weak with high inventory. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the consumption recovery is weak. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the market has a strong expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory - bearish trend [6] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight of pigs decreases slightly, and the demand for pork increases due to the drop in temperature. The slaughter - enterprise settlement price may increase, and the market supply is stable. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening decreases, while that of piglet fattening increases [8] - **Rubber**: The rubber production in domestic and foreign regions is affected by weather conditions. The demand side shows an increase in production - capacity utilization, but the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.6 Polyester - **PX**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and the downstream polyester load decreases. The PX price is affected by oil prices [9] - **PTA**: The cost of PTA fluctuates due to oil - price changes, and the short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term situation may deteriorate [9] - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the near - month situation improves due to supply reduction. The price oscillates in the short term [9] - **PR and PF**: PR has strong raw - material support but weak downstream demand; PF has low inventory and is expected to have a warm price adjustment [9]