欧元区7月制造业PMI初值为49.8，高于预期的49.7，前值为49.5。 欧元区7月服务业PMI初值达51.2，超出预期的50.7，前值是50.5。 欧元区7月 综合PMI初值为51, 高于预期的50.8, 前值为50.6, 欧元区7月SENTIX投资者信心指数跃升至4.5, 显著高于6月的0.2和市场预期的1.1, 创2022年 4月以来最高水平。 7月制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。 美国7目标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9; 7月标普全球服务业PMI初值为55.2,预期53, 前值52.9。美国7月Markit综合 PMI初值为54.6,创2024年12月以来新高,好于预期的52.8,前值为52.9。 | 特朗普继续加征多国关税,以东南亚各国为主,进一步打击转口 | 短期策略:短期盘面或以反弹为主,风险偏好者已建议2510合约 | | --- | --- | | 贸易,近期博弈难度较高,部分船司宣涨运价。特朗普政府暂时 | 1300以下轻含试多 (已走出300以上利润空间) 部分止窗: EC2512 | | 将关 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 2 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-11） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。唐山市独立轧 | | | | | | 钢企业限产消息，自 8 16-25 日根据气象条件，唐山独立轧钢企业，随 | 月 | | | 铁矿石 | 高位震荡 | 时进行停产，8 月 25 日-9 月 3 日必须停产。发运仍处于季节性回落趋势， | | | | | | 台风阶段性扰动矿石到港节奏，整体供应增加不多。 利润低库存下，钢 | | | | | | 企生产驱动较强，铁水周度数据环比回升，铁水产量超季节性高位。8 月 | | | | | | 下旬北方地区也有减产预期，铁水产量预计仍或继续上升。考虑到后期成 | | | | | | 材政策端的减产和限产风险，可以低位尝试多 RB2601 ...

2025年8月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 组织提交巴勒斯坦雇员的敏感个人信息的规定。根据该规定,若非政府组织不提交巴勒斯坦雇员的敏感个人信息,则将被注销登记。联合国秘书长副 发言人哈克当天表示，若不立即采取行动，大多数非政府组织或将在9月9日前被注销。被迫撤回国际员工，停止向巴勒斯坦人提供关键的、挽救生 线节 命的人道主义援助。哈克称，这项规定是以方出台的一系列对非政府组织的限制条件中的一条。这些限制条件中还包括对公开批评以色列政府的政策 或做法进行可能的惩罚。 财联社8月7日电，据央视新闻，当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约100%的关税。特朗普称，如果在美国制 造,将不收取任何费用。 风险 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 02:505 上海集装箱指数 SCFIS 与期货价格走势 SCFISBLE SCFICE -EC2510 -EC2512 - EC2602 - EC2604 12.000.00 6,100 5,600 5.100 4.100 6,000.00 3,600 3.100 4,000.00 2,600 2,100 2,000.00 1,6 ...

美国7目标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9; 7月标普全球服务业PMI初值为55.2,预期53, 前值52.9。美国7月Markit综合 PMI初值为54.6,创2024年12月以来新高,好于预期的52.8,前值为52.9。 | 特朗普继续加征多国关税,以东南亚各国为主,进一步打击转口 | | 短期策略:短期盘面或以反弹为主,风险偏好者已建议2510合约 | | --- | --- | --- | | 贸易, 近期博弈难度较高,部分船司宣涨运价。特朗普政府暂时 | | 1300以下轻合试多 (已走出300以上利润空间) 部分止窗: EC2512 | | 将关税谈判日期推迟至8月1日，目前现货市场价格区间已定，有 | श्ल डि | 合约已建议轻仓试空,建议止盈。关注后续盘面走势,不建议扛 | | 小幅涨价试探市场,盘面小幅反弹。综上述,我们认为,在地缘 | | 单,设置好止损。 | | 冲突叠加关税动荡,博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。 | 炭 | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,以正套结构为主,波动较大,建 | | | | 议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 8月7日主力合约251 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rolled steel: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3][6] - Silver: High-level oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8][10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - In the black industry, short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. There are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - In the financial industry, the market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The government bond market has declined, and long positions in government bonds should also be held lightly [3] - In the precious metals industry, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - In the light industry and agricultural products industries, the supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate. The fundamentals of logs are favorable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range. The supply of livestock products is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures, with prices expected to fall [4][6][7] - In the soft commodities and polyester industries, the supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand shows a differentiated trend. The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand, and the market is in a wait-and-see state [8][10] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. The total global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased significantly. Iron ore fundamentals are currently acceptable, but there are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine overproduction inspections have tightened the supply of coking coal, and transportation disruptions have affected the arrival of coke at steel mills. The black futures market is oscillating strongly, and the coke spot market is slightly short of supply. Coke prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [2] - **Rolled steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. In the off-season, steel demand has decreased, and the overall demand has a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Steel market supply and demand pressure may increase [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. Glass production capacity is stable, and downstream inventory has room to replenish, but demand has not recovered. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **Government bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the government bond market has declined. Long positions in government bonds should be held lightly [3] Precious Metals Industry - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The currency, financial, and risk-hedging attributes of gold all support its price. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - **Silver**: The short-term employment data in the US is weak, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, boosting the price of silver. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products Industries - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off-season. The supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The demand for logs has increased slightly, and the supply center has shifted downward. The supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - **Oils and fats**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The import volume of soybeans in China is high, and the inventory of oils and fats is at a high level. The demand is warming up. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [4][6] - **Livestock products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. High temperatures restrict consumption, and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises is decreasing. Pig prices are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industries - **Natural rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and raw material prices have risen. The demand for tires shows a differentiated trend, and inventory has decreased. Natural rubber prices are expected to remain firm [8] - **Polyester products**: The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand. The market is in a wait-and-see state, with prices mainly fluctuating with cost [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group 1. Overall Market Situation - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies slightly lowered freight rates. The futures market fluctuated significantly, with prices rising and then falling. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%, and for the US - West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. 2. Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index reached 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - In the US, the July Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. 3. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Situation - Trump's administration continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which affected transit trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a 25% small - scale price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties make market trading difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The short - term futures market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - short positions were recommended and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and stop - losses should be set [5]. 4.2 Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international instability, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light - position attempts [5]. 4.3 Long - term Strategy - For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. 4.4 Market Data - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. 5. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market has high trading risks and large fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Short - term rebounds are possible, and long - term positions should be taken profit when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [2][5]. Detailed Summaries Market Price Index - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period, and 1130.12 points for the US West route, down 12.0% [3]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period, 1372.67 points for the European route, down 3.53%, and 1114.45 points for the US West route, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period, the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%, and the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [3]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period, 1789.50 points for the European route, up 0.1%, and 876.57 points for the US West route, down 0.5% [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53. The composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [5]. - On August 5, the Houthi armed forces attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport [5]. - Germany's Deputy Prime Minister called on the EU to take a tougher stance in trade negotiations with the US [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, those who have taken long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 can take partial profits, and those who have short positions in the EC2512 contract can take profits. Set stop - losses and avoid holding losing positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Due to international instability, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light positions [5]. - Long - term: Take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On August 5, the main contract 2510 closed at 1413.0, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 3.06 million lots and an open interest of 5.21 million lots, an increase of 1055 lots from the previous day [5]. Contract Adjustments - For contracts from 2508 to 2606, the daily limit is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatility [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High-level volatility [2] - Glass: High-level volatility [2] - Soda ash: High-level volatility [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [8] - Live pigs: Volatility with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Volatility [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Wait-and-see [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the iron ore market is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after the short-term emotional release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2]. - The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. - It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. - It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. - It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. - The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market [10]. - The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume has declined, while the arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term, but there is a risk of a phased correction. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. Edible Oils and Oilseeds - **Edible Oils**: It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Oilseeds and Meals**: It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. Petrochemicals - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market. The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11].