Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.18% and 0.09% respectively, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 0.93% [3]. - The report notes that Ningbo has listed four plots of land in the Yinzhou District, with a total starting price exceeding 2.916 billion yuan, marking the first residential land listing in 2026 [5]. - The report provides insights into individual stock performances within the real estate sector, with notable gainers including Shunfa Hengye and Jingneng Real Estate, which saw increases of 7.59% and 4.52% respectively [4]. Market Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the overall market performance shows that most sectors are rising, with the CSI 300 Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.03% [3]. - The report lists the top five gainers in the real estate sector, with their respective increases in stock prices, while also noting the top five decliners [4]. Company Announcements - Financial Street Holdings completed the issuance of its first medium-term notes for 2026, with a total planned and actual issuance amount of 1.4 billion yuan, and an interest rate of 3.05% [6]. - China Overseas Macro Group announced the issuance of corporate bonds for professional investors, with a total scale not exceeding 1 billion yuan for this phase [7]. - Vanke disclosed a borrowing agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 2.36 billion yuan, which constitutes a related party transaction [7].

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have risen, with notable increases in China Jinmao (up 6.62% to HKD 1.62), Greentown China (up 5.49% to HKD 10.38), and China Overseas Macro Group (up 4.2% to HKD 2.48) [1] - Vanke has made significant progress in debt resolution, with the extension proposals for two medium-term notes totaling CNY 5.7 billion approved [1] - Vanke's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided a loan of up to CNY 2.36 billion specifically for repaying the company's public market bond principal and interest [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities indicates that housing market policies are being strengthened, with the central bank lowering the structural tool interest rate and the guaranteed housing re-loan rate down to 1.25% [2] - The down payment ratio for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, and the tax refund policy for home exchanges has been extended, indicating a significant increase in policy support [2] - In first-tier cities, the supply-demand structure is improving, with new home transactions in Beijing increasing and second-hand home prices stabilizing [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's property stocks saw gains in the afternoon session, with notable increases in several companies [1] - Agile Group (03383.HK) rose by 8%, trading at HKD 0.27 [1] - Shimao Group (00813.HK) increased by 6.7%, reaching HKD 0.207 [1] - China Overseas Macro Group (00081.HK) experienced a rise of 5.53%, priced at HKD 2.29 [1] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) saw a gain of 4.08%, trading at HKD 0.51 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a rising interest in the real estate sector, with several property stocks experiencing significant gains in the afternoon trading session [1] - A report from Ping An Securities highlights that the market's previous low expectations for sales in early 2026 have shifted, as the Iceberg Index shows a substantial month-on-month increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, indicating a resilient market despite the off-peak season [1] - Poly Developments released an earnings forecast this week, alleviating some performance pressure on the sector, while traditional real estate has underperformed the market, suggesting limited downside potential [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities notes a significant decline in the real estate fundamentals by Q4 2025, but there has been a stabilization in property prices and gradual improvement in fundamentals since late 2025, with policy expectations also rising [2] - The probability of property prices stopping their decline has increased from "impossible" to "possible," and if there is no repeat of the "price for volume" strategy after the Spring Festival, the likelihood of price stabilization could rise to "very likely" [2] - The adjustment in real estate stocks by December 2025 has been substantial, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the sector [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate sector, with most property stocks experiencing gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces in cities [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of property companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities are showing signs of recovery, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing increased activity [1] - Data from monitoring agencies indicate that the transaction volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with Shanghai's second-hand housing listings decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records pertain to the real estate industry in China, specifically focusing on policies and market dynamics affecting urban development and housing. Core Insights and Arguments - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal, allowing the use of existing land and property resources for state-supported industries with a transitional policy period not exceeding 5 years [2] - The 2026 National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference identified "high-quality urban renewal" as a key annual focus, emphasizing the implementation of various livelihood, development, and safety projects [2] - A sustainable model for urban renewal is proposed, involving government guidance, market operations, and public participation, with an emphasis on community engagement and the revitalization of idle assets [2] - The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau plans to promote real estate market stability through strategies focused on "controlling growth, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [3] - In 2026, Guangzhou aims to complete fixed asset investments of 120 billion yuan in urban village renovations, with a focus on 52 new model projects to ensure the availability of resettlement housing [3] - The Beijing Planning and Natural Resources Committee has set a land supply plan for 2026, aiming for 65% of land supply to come from existing construction, with a specific focus on urban renewal [3] Additional Important Content - The records highlight the importance of legislative efforts for updating old housing and urban areas, including dilapidated buildings and historical districts, to enhance urban quality [3] - The emphasis on community involvement and the establishment of a legal framework for urban renewal indicates a shift towards more participatory governance in urban development [2][3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Group 1 - The insurance sector saw significant gains, with China Life (02628) up 3.81%, China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 2.31%, and Ping An (02318) up 1.17%. Notably, major insurance companies reported a doubling in premium income through bancassurance channels as of January 8, 2026 [1] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a notable decline, with companies like JunDa Co. (02865) down 7.19% and Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) down 5.94%. This follows a period of intense adjustments and risk warnings from several listed companies in the sector [1] - The real estate sector showed active performance, with companies like R&F Properties (02777) up 4% and Greentown China (03900) up 5.79%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, a slight improvement from the previous month [2] Group 2 - HuShang Ayi (02589) reported an expected net profit of 495 million to 525 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% to 60% [3] - Yi Communications Group (08031) saw a surge of over 70% upon resuming trading, with a current increase of 53.85%. The company announced a share acquisition deal involving 210 million shares at a price of 0.276 HKD per share, which is a 15.08% discount from the pre-suspension closing price [3] - Guorui Life (00108) experienced an increase of over 11% after announcing a deal to acquire 78.29% of Chunyu Doctor for 269 million RMB, marking its entry into the digital healthcare sector [4]