Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年12月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中國海外宏洋集團有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年1月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00081 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 3,559,374,732 | | 0 | | 3,559,374,732 | | 增加 / ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （在香港註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：81） 與華藝設計顧問有限公司 重續有關設計服務的 持續關連交易 重續持續關連交易 茲提述本公司日期為二零二二年十二月十六日的公告，內容關於（其中包括）本公司 與華藝設計（中國海外發展的全資附屬公司）訂立的現有框架協議，據此，於華藝設 計集團不時按照本集團之招標程序中標後，本集團可委聘華藝設計集團為本集團的物 業發展項目提供服務，為期三年，自二零二三年一月一日起至二零二五年十二月三十 一日止。 現有框架協議將於二零二五年十二月三十一日屆滿，而本集團預期將繼續邀請華藝設 計集團參與為本集團的物業發展項目提供服務的競爭投標，並且於其中標後，委聘華 藝設計集團。因此，於二零二五年十二月三十一日，本公司與華藝設計訂立重續框架 協議，為期三年，自二零二六年一月一日起至二零二八年十二月三十一日止。 上市規則的涵義 於本公告日期，中國海外發展擁有本公司約39.63%已發行股本 ...

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks are experiencing declines, with notable drops in companies such as China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (down 4.85% to HKD 1.96), Agile Group (down 4.76% to HKD 0.3), Shimao Group (down 3.37% to HKD 0.201), and R&F Properties (down 2.94% to HKD 0.66) [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing in China decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, and the sales revenue fell by 11.1% year-on-year [1] - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with continued declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas from January to November [1] Group 2 - Despite the current downturn, the real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization due to various policies aimed at halting the decline [1] - There may still be slight fluctuations in housing prices during the stabilization process, but there is optimism for further market stability driven by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - Efforts such as stockpiling and urban village renovations are expected to accelerate, improving the existing housing supply-demand relationship and hastening the stabilization process [1]

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have declined, with notable drops including China Overseas Grand Oceans Group down 4.85% to HKD 1.96, Yujule Group down 4.76% to HKD 0.3, Shimao Group down 3.37% to HKD 0.201, and R&F Properties down 2.94% to HKD 0.66 [1][1][1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing nationwide decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 11.1% year-on-year [1][1][1] - Investment, new construction, and completion areas in the real estate sector continued to decline year-on-year during the same period, indicating that the overall real estate market remains in an adjustment phase [1][1][1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that under various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, the market is gradually moving towards stabilization since 2025, although prices may still experience slight fluctuations [1][1][1] - The expectation is that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the existing housing supply and demand relationship will improve, accelerating the stabilization process of the real estate market [1][1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on risk resolution and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5][8] - The overall tone of the conference is the most positive of the year, indicating a responsive approach to the industry's downward trend [14] - The policy shift from "stimulating demand" to "digesting inventory and optimizing supply" reflects a strategic change in real estate policy [14] Summary by Sections Economic Work Conference Insights - The conference held on December 11, 2025, updated its stance on real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and managing risks effectively [5][8] - Key measures include controlling new land supply, revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, and promoting the construction of quality housing [5][8] Policy Evolution - The shift in policy from "stimulating demand" to "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" has been noted since April 2024 [14] - The emphasis on "risk prevention" suggests that 2026 may see intensified contradictions within the real estate sector [14] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" [6] - Notable companies include Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, all showing potential for strong performance [6][17] Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies for investment, indicating a focus on both development and property management sectors [17]

Market Overview - The market sentiment improved significantly due to favorable news from the Central Economic Work Conference, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.75% and returning to 26,000 points [1] - Major technology stocks collectively increased, with NetEase rising over 4%, Tencent and Alibaba up over 2%, and other tech companies like Xiaomi, Baidu, JD.com, and Kuaishou also seeing gains [1][3] Sector Performance - **Electric Power Equipment**: Strong performance with Dongfang Electric up over 13% and other companies like Harbin Electric and Shanghai Electric also showing significant gains [1][5] - **Financial Sector**: All major financial stocks, including China Pacific Insurance and CITIC Securities, saw increases, with HSBC reaching a market value of over HKD 2 trillion [1][8] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices surged, leading to active trading in gold stocks, with China Silver Group rising nearly 6% [1][6] - **Consumer Sector**: Restaurant stocks were active, with companies like Da Shi and Haidilao seeing notable increases, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] - **Real Estate**: Property stocks rose, with Longguang Group increasing over 4%, supported by policies to stabilize the real estate market [12] Individual Stock Highlights - **NetEase**: Stock price increased by 4.20% to HKD 218.40 [4] - **Dongfang Electric**: Stock price surged by 13.59% to HKD 24.90 [5] - **China Pacific Insurance**: Stock price rose by 5.68% to HKD 34.60 [9] - **China Silver Group**: Stock price increased by 5.80% to HKD 0.730 [7] - **Xuan Bamboo Bio**: Stock price increased by 25.19% to HKD 96.90, reaching a new high [16][19] Economic Policy Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and consumer spending, with plans to implement measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market [10][12]

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a significant rise, with Shimao Group, Ronshine China, and Vanke Enterprises increasing by over 5%, while Sunac China rose by 4.5% [1] - Other notable increases included Greentown China, Agile Group, Jinhui Holdings, and Country Garden, all rising by over 3%, and CIFI Holdings, China Jinmao, Longfor Group, and New City Development increasing by over 2% [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply [1] - The conference also highlighted the importance of reforming the housing provident fund system and promoting the construction of quality housing [1] - Measures to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks were discussed, including urging local governments to proactively manage debt and preventing the illegal addition of hidden debts [1]

Group 1 - The real estate sector in China is facing significant challenges, with major companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans Group and China Jinmao experiencing declines of 8.93% and 8.76% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the real estate sector remains a primary risk point, with ongoing declines in sales and investment, and the market has not achieved a "stop falling and stabilize" condition [1][2] - Vanke's application for domestic bond extension has severely impacted market sentiment, raising concerns about the tightening financing environment for private developers [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts are optimistic about Longfor Group, which is transitioning to a rental model and possesses a significant amount of unencumbered investment properties [1] - The recommendation for investors is to adopt a selective strategy in the Chinese credit market, favoring TMT companies with strong fundamentals and balance sheets, such as Alibaba and Weibo [1] - Despite narrowing spreads for state-owned enterprises, there is strong technical support for defensive stocks like China National Chemical Corporation [1]