2025年第一季度营收同比下降23%，至58亿元人民币，占高盛2025财年预期/机构市场共识预期的 16%/15%(2024年第一季度占比为16%)。由于2024年末未入账的总建筑面积和合并预售存款同比均下降 约30%，预计2025年营收在2023年/2024年分别下降2%/19%之后，将再同比下降约20%。 2025年第一季度营业利润同比下降49%，至3.98亿元人民币，占高盛2025财年预期/市场共识预期的 21%/23%(2024年第一季度占比为39%)。 2025年第一季度营业利润率环比提高4个百分点，但同比下降3个百分点至7%，比高盛2025财年预期高2 个百分点(2024年第一季度比2024财年预期高6个百分点)。预计2025年其房地产销售毛利率将维持在9% 的较低水平(2024年入账毛利率为8%)。 2025年第一季度预售额达到69亿元人民币，预售建筑面积59.8万平方米，销售均价为每平方米11584元 人民币(分别同比下降12%/16%/增长4%)，与管理层设定的2025年同比下降13%至350亿元人民币的目标 相符。2025年第一季度预售额占高盛预期(360亿元人民币，同比下降11%)的19 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 458.95 billion, a decrease of 18.6% compared to RMB 564.08 billion in 2023[28]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 38.46 billion, down 39.1% from RMB 63.11 billion in 2023, resulting in a gross margin of 8.4%[28]. - Profit attributable to owners of the company was RMB 9.54 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 58.5% from RMB 23.02 billion in the previous year[28]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 2.1%, down from 4.1% in 2023, indicating a decrease of 2.0 percentage points[28]. - Contract sales for the year were RMB 401.10 billion, a decline of 6.3% from RMB 428.20 billion in 2023[28]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 45.895 billion for the fiscal year 2024, a decrease of 18.6% year-on-year, with a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.954 billion, down 58.5%[44]. - The overall gross profit for the year was RMB 3.846 billion, a decline of 39.1% from RMB 6.311 billion in the previous year, resulting in a gross profit margin of approximately 8.4%[65]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 2.210 billion, down 47.5% from RMB 4.207 billion in the previous year, mainly due to the drop in gross profit[67]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - Cash and bank balances increased by 4.9% to RMB 272.91 billion compared to RMB 260.21 billion in the previous year[28]. - Total borrowings decreased by 8.9% to RMB 397.02 billion from RMB 435.64 billion in 2023[28]. - The net debt-to-equity ratio improved to 33.1%, down from 46.0% in the previous year, a reduction of 12.9 percentage points[28]. - Cash reserves exceeded RMB 27 billion, with net debt ratio decreasing from 46.0% to 33.1%[51]. - The average financing cost was 4.1%, remaining low within the industry[51]. - The group secured new credit facilities totaling RMB 20.8 billion from leading financial institutions during the year[95]. - As of December 31, 2024, the total loans (including guaranteed notes and corporate bonds) amounted to RMB 39.702 billion, a decrease of RMB 3.862 billion from RMB 43.564 billion in 2023[97]. - The weighted average financing cost for the group decreased to 4.1% in 2024 from 4.6% in 2023, primarily due to an increase in offshore low-interest RMB bank loans[100]. Property Development and Sales - The company’s land bank for property development decreased by 26.7% to 13,778.1 thousand square meters from 18,806.8 thousand square meters in 2023[28]. - The average selling price of residential properties was approximately RMB 12,400 per square meter, reflecting a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, with a contract sales area of 3.4835 million square meters, down 1.4%[47]. - The company acquired 11 quality projects through public land auctions, adding a total floor area of 1,189,200 square meters and a total land cost of RMB 5.229 billion, enhancing its market share and competitiveness[49]. - The company achieved a delivery of approximately 36,000 units with a customer satisfaction rate of 94%, exceeding the industry benchmark of 95[50]. - The company is focusing on developing properties in second and third-tier cities in mainland China to meet varying housing demands[79]. - The total contracted sales area for major projects as of December 31, 2024, reached approximately 6,227,400 square meters, with 84% sold by year-end[85]. - Revenue from the property development segment for the year was RMB 45.41 billion, a decrease of 18.9% compared to RMB 56.00 billion in 2023[85]. - The gross profit margin for the property development segment narrowed to 8.0% from 11.0% in the previous year[85]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company appointed PwC as its auditor in June 2024, replacing the previous auditor who served for 14 consecutive years, to ensure the independence and objectivity of external audit services[120]. - The company emphasizes the importance of diverse perspectives in decision-making to support its strategic goals and sustainable development[133]. - The board's composition includes a mix of executive, non-executive, and independent directors, ensuring a balanced approach to governance[135]. - The company has established a whistleblowing policy to allow employees and stakeholders to report misconduct, ensuring protection against retaliation for genuine whistleblowers[195]. - The company has adopted an anti-corruption policy to identify and assess corruption risks and ensure compliance with ethical standards across all business transactions[190]. - The company conducted legal compliance inspections in six regions to enhance compliance management and mitigate legal risks[188]. - The board has mechanisms for independent discussions among independent non-executive directors to maintain high independence[138]. - The company has implemented effective risk management and internal control systems to protect assets and ensure compliance with applicable laws[177]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with increased policy support, providing opportunities for the group[58]. - The group plans to enhance customer satisfaction by delivering high-quality, safe, and green products[57]. - The group aims to leverage market adjustments to capture structural opportunities while ensuring project returns[56]. - The company is focusing on standardized product development, completing several standardized housing types and enhancing operational efficiency in key projects, contributing to improved sales performance[50]. - The company aims to optimize returns while addressing different market and customer needs through tailored products[79]. - The company is committed to a "dual carbon" strategy, focusing on green operations and low-carbon management throughout the project lifecycle[125]. Employee and Board Diversity - The company has appointed Liu Ping as a non-executive director effective April 22, 2024, replacing Guo Guanghui[130]. - The board's diversity policy aims to achieve at least 10% female representation, which has been met with one female director currently serving[136]. - As of December 31, 2024, the proportion of female employees in the group is 43.2%, up from 40.6% a year earlier, exceeding the target of 41%[137]. - The company recognizes the challenges of achieving gender diversity in the male-dominated real estate industry and is committed to promoting gender balance in hiring and promotions[137]. - The board's skill matrix highlights expertise in real estate development, business operations, and risk management, crucial for strategic planning and oversight[132].

Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the group's revenue was approximately RMB 5.787 billion, a decrease of 22.8% compared to the same period last year[3] - The operating profit for the same quarter was approximately RMB 398 million, reflecting a decline of 48.6% year-on-year[3] - The total contracted sales amount recorded by the group and its joint ventures was approximately RMB 6.932 billion, with a sales area of about 598,400 square meters, down 12.5% and 15.9% respectively from the previous year[4] Land Acquisition and Reserves - The group acquired four new land parcels in Nantong, Hohhot, and Hefei, with a total attributable floor area of approximately 414,900 square meters, at a land cost of about RMB 2.458 billion[4] - The total land reserve held by the group and its joint ventures amounted to approximately 13,753,600 square meters, with the group's attributable floor area being about 11,591,800 square meters[4] Pending Sales - As of March 31, 2025, the total amount of subscribed but pending sales contracts was approximately RMB 492 million, covering an area of about 40,700 square meters[4] Financial Management and Risks - The group maintains a professional and prudent financial management approach, closely monitoring external economic conditions and industry consolidation opportunities[5] - The company emphasizes the importance of not overly relying on forward-looking statements due to inherent risks and uncertainties[6] - The financial data presented is unaudited and should not be considered as guarantees of the group's financial performance for the period ending March 31, 2025[6] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes eight members, with three executive directors and three independent non-executive directors[8]

中国海外宏洋集团（00081.HK） 优于大市 结算规模和利润承压，但签约销售明显好转 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 公司业绩承压但派息率提升。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 459 亿元，同比 -19%，主要因为 2022 年起地产行业下行导致公司签约销售下降对结算规模 的影响渐显；归母净利润为 9.5 亿元，同比-59%；归母净利率 2.1%，同比下 降 2.0 个百分点。公司盈利水平下滑，一方面 2024 年公司毛利率同比下降 2.8 个百分点至 8.4%，但随着 2022 年及以后获取的项目逐步进入结算期， 预期毛利率将企稳回升。另一方面 2024 年归母净利润占比为 79%，同比下降 35 个百分点。2024 年，公司管理费率和销售费率相对平稳。全年每股派息 0.10 港元，虽然同比-38%，但派息率已较往年 20%左右提升至 35%。 权益销售同比转正，下沉市场优势增强。2024 年，公司实现签约销售额 401 亿元，同比-6%；合联营销售额 30 亿元，占比 8%保持低位；权益销售额 343 亿元，同比+2%实现转正，权益占比提升至 85%；销售面积为 348 万㎡，同比 -1%。2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 中国海外宏洋集团（00081.HK） 优于大市 结算规模和利润承压，但签约销售明显好转 公司业绩承压但派息率提升。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 459 亿元，同比 -19%，主要因为 2022 年起地产行业下行导致公司签约销售下降对结算规模 的影响渐显；归母净利润为 9.5 亿元，同比-59%；归母净利率 2.1%，同比下 降 2.0 个百分点。公司盈利水平下滑，一方面 2024 年公司毛利率同比下降 2.8 个百分点至 8.4%，但随着 2022 年及以后获取的项目逐步进入结算期， 预期毛利率将企稳回升。另一方面 2024 年归母净利润占比为 79%，同比下降 35 个百分点。2024 年，公司管理费率和销售费率相对平稳。全年每股派息 0.10 港元，虽然同比-38%，但派息率已较往年 20%左右提升至 35%。 权益销售同比转正，下沉市场优势增强。2024 年，公司实现签约销售额 401 亿元，同比-6%；合联营销售额 30 亿元，占比 8%保持低位；权益销售额 343 亿元，同比+2%实现转正，权益占比提升至 85%；销售面积为 348 万㎡，同比 -1%。2 ...

本集团商业物业经营规模稳步增长，重点项目高效推进。全年营收突破 4.84 亿，同比增长19.7%;本集 团系列公司已出租面积48.0万平方米，同比增长 14.1%。汕头黄金海岸水上乐园二期、惠州中海广场环 宇天地成功开业;写字楼项目出租情况良好，北京中海国际中心、合肥中海观园及兰州中海广场等项目 均实现90%以上出租率。 本集团透过不断提升管理刻度，聚焦支持一线业务，稳中求进，以进促稳，于稳健中寻求发展。年内， 本集团系列公司合约销售额为401.10亿元，同比下降6.3%;本集团所布局城市总体合约销售规模同期下 降34%，本集团市场占比有所提升。合约销售面积为348.35万平方米，同比下降1.4%。应占权益合约销 售额实现342.56亿元，同比上升2.1%，根据克而瑞数据，行业排名18位，较2023年上升12位。本集团持 续推进库存去化，住宅平均销售价格约每平方米12400元，同比下降5.9%。于年末时，累积认购未签约 额为3.86亿元，其总合约面积为3.42万平方米。 中国海外宏洋集团(00081)发布年度业绩，股东应占 溢利9.54亿元 同比减少58.55% 于年内，本集团进一步推动项目精细运营，强化投运 ...

Financial Performance - The group's contract sales amounted to RMB 40.11 billion, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, covering a total area of 3,483,500 square meters [3]. - The group's revenue for the year was RMB 45.895 billion, down 18.6% compared to the previous year, with a gross profit of RMB 3.846 billion and a gross margin of 8.4% [3]. - The profit attributable to the company's owners was RMB 0.954 billion, a decline of 58.5% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.268 [3]. - The overall gross profit for the year was RMB 3.846 billion, a decline of 39.1% from RMB 6.311 billion in 2023, with a gross profit margin narrowing to approximately 8.4% from 11.2% [28]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 2.210 billion, down 47.5% from RMB 4.207 billion in 2023 [29]. - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.954 billion, a decrease of 58.5% from RMB 2.302 billion in 2023, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.268 compared to RMB 0.647 in 2023 [30]. - The company's total assets decreased to RMB 121,202,702 from RMB 143,634,340 in 2023, reflecting a reduction of 15.4% [72]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 2,160,744 thousand for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 4,122,713 thousand in the previous year, representing a decrease of approximately 47.5% [87][88]. Cash Flow and Financial Stability - The group's total cash and bank balances reached RMB 27.291 billion, accounting for 21.1% of total assets, with a net debt ratio reduced to 33.1% from 46.0% in the previous year [3]. - The company achieved sales collection of RMB 38.1 billion, maintaining positive operating cash flow for three consecutive years, with cash reserves exceeding RMB 27 billion [15]. - The net debt ratio decreased from 46.0% at the end of last year to 33.1%, maintaining a "green file" under the "three red lines" policy [15]. - The company maintained a net operating cash inflow of RMB 9.029 billion during the year, indicating strong cash flow management [55]. - The company identified debt repayment risk as a major concern due to cash flow management challenges in the real estate sector [65]. - The company plans to accelerate property sales and cash recovery while maintaining prudent land reserve replenishment [65]. - The company’s liquidity risk management remains a priority, ensuring sustainable business growth amid changing market conditions [58]. Land Acquisition and Development - The total floor area of land acquired during the year was approximately 1,189,200 square meters, with a total cost of RMB 5.229 billion [3]. - The company acquired 11 quality projects through public market bidding, adding a total floor area of 1,189,200 square meters and a total land cost of RMB 5.229 billion [12]. - The company completed construction on approximately 6,227,400 square meters of property during the year, with 84% sold by year-end, compared to 83% in 2023 [40]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company's land reserves in mainland China totaled 13,778,100 square meters, down from 18,806,800 square meters in 2023, with attributable land reserves of 11,590,700 square meters [34]. - The total land reserves are distributed across 32 cities, indicating a broad market presence [34]. Market Strategy and Operations - The company plans to focus on key second and third-tier cities, leveraging the potential for growth in these markets due to ongoing urbanization [19]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage through resource integration and localized brand influence in the second and third-tier cities [19]. - The company has established a lean product development system, focusing on "low cost, high quality, and fast delivery" to improve operational efficiency and sales performance [14]. - The company continues to focus on developing properties in second and third-tier cities, offering suitable products to meet varying market demands [36]. - The company aims to accelerate property sales to adapt to market changes and ensure a stable financial position [40]. Commercial Property Performance - The group's commercial property revenue exceeded RMB 0.484 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a leased area of 480,000 square meters, up 14.1% [11]. - The rental income from commercial properties reached RMB 298.00 million, up from RMB 272.00 million in 2023, indicating stable growth in this segment [47]. - The total income from the commercial property operation segment was RMB 484.00 million, an increase from RMB 405.00 million in 2023 [47]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company is committed to enhancing corporate governance and has adhered to the principles and code provisions of the corporate governance code [111]. - The audit committee has discussed and reviewed the annual performance and consolidated accounts for the year ending December 31, 2024 [108]. - The external auditor has confirmed that the financial figures in the announcement are consistent with those in the audited consolidated financial statements [107]. - The company has adopted a code of conduct for securities trading that meets or exceeds the standards set out in the listing rules [110]. - The company has not repurchased, sold, or redeemed any of its listed securities during the year ending December 31, 2024 [109]. Future Outlook - The company expects that by 2025, stimulus policies will intensify, driving a continued recovery in the Chinese economy and stabilizing the real estate sector [24]. - The company plans to adopt new accounting standards effective January 1, 2027, which may impact the presentation and disclosure of financial statements [81].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a stable sales performance at the beginning of 2025, with a slight increase in land acquisition efforts, although short-term performance may remain under pressure [1] - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales revenue of 40.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, while the sales revenue for January and February 2025 was 4.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The average selling price increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 12,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a potential recovery in the sales market [1] Sales Performance - The company’s sales in January and February 2025 were 2.21 billion yuan and 2.16 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.6% and -0.6% [1] - The sales performance in early 2025 is considered stable compared to the previous year [1] Land Acquisition - In 2024, the company increased its land reserves by 1.189 million square meters, with a total land cost of 5.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.8% and 46.5%, respectively [2] - In January and February 2025, the company acquired an additional 300,000 square meters of land in Nantong and Hohhot, with a total cost of 1.34 billion yuan, resulting in a land acquisition sales ratio of 30.8% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.0% year-on-year, and an operating profit of 1.45 billion yuan, down 66.2% year-on-year [3] - The net debt ratio stood at 44.5%, indicating a stable financial condition, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.5 times [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The basic EPS forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down to 0.31 yuan and 0.35 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 0.42 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.9 times for 2024, 5.3 times for 2025, and 4.4 times for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Insights - The company's sales performance at the beginning of 2025 has been steady, with a slight increase in land acquisition efforts, although short-term performance may remain under pressure [1] - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales revenue of 40.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, while the sales revenue for January and February 2025 was 4.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The average sales price per square meter increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 12,000 yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in the sales market [1] - The company has increased its land acquisition efforts, with a total land area of 1.189 million square meters added in 2024, although the total land cost decreased by 46.5% [2] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 26.96 billion yuan, down 31.0% year-on-year, with operating profit declining by 66.2% [3] - Financially, the company maintains a stable position with a net debt ratio of 44.5% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.5 times [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total sales revenue of 40.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, with an average monthly sales of 3.34 billion yuan [1] - For January and February 2025, the sales revenue was 4.37 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with sales figures of 2.21 billion yuan and 2.16 billion yuan for each month respectively [1] Land Acquisition - The company has increased its land acquisition efforts, with 1.189 million square meters added in 2024, although the total land cost decreased by 46.5% [2] - In the first two months of 2025, the company acquired an additional 300,000 square meters of land at a total cost of 1.34 billion yuan, resulting in a land acquisition sales ratio of 30.8% [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 26.96 billion yuan, a decline of 31.0% year-on-year, with operating profit down 66.2% to 1.45 billion yuan [3] - The net debt ratio stands at 44.5%, and the company has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.5 times, indicating a stable financial condition [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The basic EPS forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down to 0.31 yuan and 0.35 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 0.42 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.9 times for 2024, 5.3 times for 2025, and 4.4 times for 2026 [4]

AI应用概念持续火热。 近期A股市场持续回调，上证指数早盘一度创出阶段新低，最低达到3227.36点，创业板指最低达到 2119.54点。市场信心有所受挫，但机构依然看好后市。 中信建投证券首席策略分析师陈果昨日在策略会上表示，继续中期看好中国股市"信心重估牛"，且认为 随着政策逐步加码展开与见效，2025年牛市有望从"流动性牛"逐步迈向"基本面牛"，虽然过程中难免出 现震荡分化，但市场将不会缺乏投资机会。 今日早盘，AI方向依然有亮眼的题材，IP经济大幅上扬，恒信东方两分钟拉升至"20cm"涨停，华立科 技同样"20cm"涨停，广博股份、东方智造等个股涨停。 两分钟"20cm"涨停 恒信东方今天以7.81元/股开盘，较昨收盘下跌0.76%；竞价交易后，该股便大幅飙升，短短两分钟时间 即拉升至"20cm"涨停。 截至上午收盘，该股报9.44元，上涨19.95%，创出阶段新高。恒信东方有众多时下热门题材，包括IP经 济、婴童概念、AIGC概念、算力租赁概念等。 在近期的众多热门题材中，IP经济无疑是最火爆的，该题材衍生的"谷子经济"概念横空出世。据 悉，"谷子经济"是指围绕二次元文化产品的一种消费经济形式，主要 ...