Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in Hong Kong's property stocks, driven by recent financial measures from mainland China aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [1] - Notable stock performances include Greentown China rising nearly 6%, Jianfa International Group up nearly 5%, and China Overseas Hong Kong Group increasing by 4.4% [2] - Recent financial measures include a 25 basis point reduction in the People's Bank of China's re-lending rate and a decrease in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial real estate from 50% to 30% [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the fundamentals of China's real estate sector have undergone a deep adjustment, with a positive shift in policy expectations following central government directives to stabilize the market [1] - Ping An Securities forecasts a narrowing decline in the housing market by 2025, with signs of recovery expected by 2026, emphasizing that quality properties will be key to boosting new home sales [1]

Group 1 - The performance of Chinese real estate stocks is active, with notable increases in share prices [1] - RONXIN China (03301.HK) rose by 3.5%, trading at HKD 0.148 [1] - Greentown China (03900.HK) increased by 2.95%, trading at HKD 9.07 [1] - China Overseas Macro Group (00081.HK) saw a rise of 2.46%, trading at HKD 2.08 [1] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) gained 2%, trading at HKD 0.51 [1]

消息面上，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，上海上涨0.2%。申万宏源认为，我国房地产基本面已经历 深度调整，考虑到近期中央要求"着力稳定房地产市场"，并今年年初央媒《求是》为房地产重磅发声， 其中强调地产金融属性、居民资产负债表及建议政策一次性给足，房地产表态出现积极转变，后续行业 政策值得期待。而目前板块配置创历史新低，部分优质企业PB估值或绝对市值已处于历史低位，已具 备吸引力。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股表现活跃，截至发稿，融信中国(03301)涨3.5%，报0.148港元；绿城中国 (03900)涨2.95%，报9.07港元；中国海外宏洋集团(00081)涨2.46%，报2.08港元；富力地产(02777)涨 2%，报0.51港元。 ...

消息面上，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，上海上涨0.2%。申万宏源认为，我国房地产基本面已经历 深度调整，考虑到近期中央要求"着力稳定房地产市场"，并今年年初央媒《求是》为房地产重磅发声， 其中强调地产金融属性、居民资产负债表及建议政策一次性给足，房地产表态出现积极转变，后续行业 政策值得期待。而目前板块配置创历史新低，部分优质企业PB估值或绝对市值已处于历史低位，已具 备吸引力。 内房股表现活跃，截至发稿，融信中国(03301)涨3.5%，报0.148港元；绿城中国(03900)涨2.95%，报9.07 港元；中国海外宏洋集团(00081)涨2.46%，报2.08港元；富力地产(02777)涨2%，报0.51港元。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

2025H1，公司实现营业收入145.43 亿元，同比下降33.45%；实现归母净利润2.84亿元，同比下降 67.91%，公司实现毛利率、净利率分别9.27%、2.63%，同比分别-0.38pct、-1.32pct，公司业绩下行主要 系房地产开发市场毛利率阶段性触底且结转收入规模收缩导致。2024 年公司平均融资成本4.1%，境内 加权平均融资成本3.7%，境外加权融资成本4.5%，同比均有所下降；2025H1，公司平均融资成本 2.9%，融资成本持续压降。截至2025H1，公司资产负债率69.94%，权益乘数3.33，流动比率1.98，速动 比率0.65，整体财务状况维持稳健。 风险提示：销售回款不及预期、市场下行风险、政策支持不及预期。 中海品牌铸就下沉龙头，低能级布局"剩者为王"公司在低能级城市房企利润承压退出低能级城市市场 后，有望凭借市占率提升穿越周期。随着主流房企战略收缩至核心一二线城市，二三线中高端市场供需 关系优化，公司凭借母品牌信任度，持续提升市场市占率，预计后续毛利率将持续修复，在后续市场好 转后提升低能级城市认可度并进一步塑造品牌溢价。从月度趋势看，公司销售端数据已出现触底回升迹 象。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - China Overseas Macro Group is establishing itself as a leader in the quality residential market in lower-tier cities, leveraging the brand strength of its parent company, China Overseas Property [7][19]. - The company has developed a comprehensive value chain in real estate development, covering land acquisition, planning, construction, marketing, after-sales service, and property management [19]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 330 million, 436 million, and 628 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.12, and 0.18 RMB [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Overseas Macro Group is a flagship enterprise under China Overseas Group, focusing on mid-to-high-end residential development in second and third-tier cities [19]. - The company has a strong backing from its parent company, which enhances its brand credibility and resource access [28]. 2. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the exit of less competitive firms from lower-tier markets, allowing it to increase market share [8][44]. - The strategic focus on lower-tier cities is expected to optimize supply-demand dynamics in the mid-to-high-end market [44]. 3. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.54 billion RMB, a decrease of 33.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 284 million RMB, down 67.91% [9]. - The average financing cost has decreased, with a reported 2.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved financial health [9]. 4. Sales and Market Trends - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 40.11 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decline of 6.3% year-on-year, but significantly better than the average decline of 34% in the cities it operates [49]. - Monthly sales data shows signs of recovery, with a notable increase in sales amounts and areas in the second quarter of 2025 [73]. 5. Land Acquisition Strategy - The company has adopted a cautious investment strategy, focusing on acquiring land in core locations of strong third-tier cities, with a total land reserve of 1.1892 million square meters in 2024 [79]. - The land acquisition strategy emphasizes "mainstream cities, mainstream locations, and mainstream products," ensuring a competitive edge in the market [79].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

观点指数(GDIRI)2025年中海宏洋拿地强度远超以往，依据中海宏洋公布的业绩显示，过去一年其在兰州、合肥等二三线城市拿下22宗地块，相比去年实现 翻倍，权益拿地建筑面积262.21万平方米，同比增长103.44%；权益拿地金额为102.25亿元，同比增长95.54%。新增货值约320.84亿元 ，相对全年销售额计 算，货值补充率99.68%。 在当前行业调整阶段，观点指数认为，中西部二三线城市及东部经济强县的市场仍存在一定的结构性机会。 一方面，这类区域的土地市场呈现溢价率低、拿地成本相对可控的特征；另一方面，当地不仅有充足的刚性居住需求作为支撑，还具备一定的改善型需求挖 掘空间。 其中，合肥、兰州是其全年拿地力度最大的城市，合肥全年共落子5个项目（包河区4个、瑶海区1个），涉及土地面积超20万方，规划建筑面积合计约58万 方，总拿地金额约39亿元，累计权益拿地金额达26亿元。 值得关注的是，5月其以底价接手了瑶海区原恒大中央广场的商业改住宅地块，具备稀缺属性——该地块紧邻地铁1号线"明光路站"，属于典型的地铁口优质 地块，交通便捷度高，周边生活配套完善，后续开发潜力显著。 在此背景下，中海宏洋选择加大拿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 5.1% in the second week of January 2026, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing transactions in 20 monitored cities saw a 37% year-on-year decrease, while the average daily transaction volume increased by 104% week-on-week [22][27] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34][35] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 12,626.37 billion [2] Policy News - In Shenyang, new policies were implemented to optimize housing fund loans, including extending the minimum down payment policy to December 31, 2026, and increasing the loan limit for new citizens and youth [18][19] - Shanghai emphasized creating a fair market competition environment through new regulations [18][19] Sales Data - In the second week, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 21.8 million square meters, with total transactions of 153 million square meters [26][27] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.3 million square meters, with total transactions of 212 million square meters [27][32] Financing - The report notes that most companies issuing bonds this week are local state-owned enterprises, with New Hope Real Estate issuing the largest amount of 8.8 billion [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies [34][35]