Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][46]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a rebound in leading companies and opening up new development avenues for "new products, new pricing, and new models" [5][46]. - The current monetary easing cycle is seen as advantageous for commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of high-quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [5][46]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, with total transactions of 40 million square meters, which is only 42% of the average from 2017 to 2024 [5][15]. - In October, new home transactions in 34 cities are down 28.4% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down 23.2% and third and fourth-tier cities down 58.5% [5][8]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a total available area of 90.43 million square meters [5][28]. Policy and News Tracking - Various cities have introduced supportive policies for the real estate sector, including measures in Chongqing, Hefei, and Yunnan to enhance housing supply and optimize loan conditions [5][37]. - The report highlights significant land transactions, including a residential land deal in Beijing for approximately 4.31 billion yuan and six residential land deals in Nanjing totaling about 4.21 billion yuan [5][39]. Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [5][42]. - Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [5][42]. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 1.99% [5][46]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 17.5 and 15.3 times, respectively [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and opening new development avenues [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing cycle, which favors commercial real estate, indicating that the revaluation of quality commercial properties has begun [4]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transaction Volume**: In the week of September 27 to October 3, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.472 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities increased by 3.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 46.3% [4][5]. - **Monthly Year-on-Year Change**: In October, the transaction volume in 34 cities is expected to decrease by 28% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 23% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 58.5% [4][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 3, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 90.434 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1%. The average monthly depleting months for the last three months was 25.9 months, an increase of 1.1 months [4][28]. Policy and News Tracking - **Policy Initiatives**: Various cities have introduced supportive real estate policies, including the establishment of a land supply heat map mechanism in Hefei and enhanced housing subsidy policies in Yunnan [4][38]. - **Land Market Transactions**: In Nanjing, six residential land plots were sold for approximately 4.21 billion yuan, while a plot in Beijing's Sun Palace area was sold for about 4.31 billion yuan [4][38]. Company Dynamics - **Financing Activities**: China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [4][44]. - **Sales Performance**: Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, despite a decrease in sales area by 15.8% [4][44]. Sector Performance Review - **Market Performance**: The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.99%. The real estate sector ranked 4th among 31 sectors [4][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. The overall real estate market is expected to continue stabilizing, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being introduced [3]. - The core cities' real estate markets are anticipated to be at the bottom turning point and will lead the recovery. The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and undervalued firms, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies [3]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.083 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 5.4%. The year-on-year increase for September is 17.6% [4][5]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities increased by 5.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 8.1% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.096 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.1%. However, the cumulative year-on-year increase for September is 31.3% [11]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.07 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 780,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.73 [19]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.666 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [19]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council has officially implemented the "Housing Rental Regulations," encouraging the increase of rental housing supply through various channels [28]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August 2025, real estate investment totaled 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with sales area and sales amount also declining [28]. - Shanghai has optimized its property tax pilot policy, temporarily exempting certain residents from property tax for their first and second homes under specific conditions [28]. Company Dynamics - Financing activities remain active, with quality real estate companies actively distributing dividends. For instance, China Overseas Development has issued bonds with significant payouts [33]. - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 0.44%, indicating a stronger performance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at preventing further declines being introduced [4]. - The report highlights that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and is expected to lead the recovery. It also emphasizes the emergence of new development tracks for quality housing, which will enhance market penetration in core cities [4]. - The report recommends several companies based on their product strength and valuation recovery potential, including those in the second-hand housing intermediary and property management sectors [4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.949 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 11.9%. Year-on-year, the transaction volume increased by 10.3% compared to August [4][5]. - The report notes that first-hand housing transactions in first and second-tier cities decreased by 12.1% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 7.9% [5]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.167 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22.7%. Cumulatively, transactions in September showed a year-on-year increase of 24.3% compared to August [4][13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report states that 15 cities had a total of 790,000 square meters of new housing launched, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.96. The total available residential area in these cities was 89.347 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03% [4][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at supporting the real estate market, including a directive from the State Council to improve land resource allocation efficiency and various local measures to enhance housing consumption [4][29]. - Specific measures include a reduction in mortgage rates for second homes in Shenzhen and increased housing fund loan limits in Anhui [4][30]. Company Performance Tracking - The report provides detailed sales performance for major real estate companies in August 2025, noting significant declines in sales volume for companies like Yuexiu Property and Longfor Group, while highlighting the re-inclusion of Country Garden in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list [4][35]. - It also mentions the financial performance of China Jinmao, which reported a 14.3% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first half of 2025 [4][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][34]. Core Views - The report suggests that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline expected to be introduced further [2][34]. - The report highlights that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery. It emphasizes the potential of new policies to create a "new product, new pricing, and new model" development track, which will enhance the market in core cities [2][34]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 220.5 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 3.3%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 1.5%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 25.4% [3][4]. - For September, the cumulative transaction volume in 34 cities was 154 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and a month-on-month increase of 44.1% [4][10]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 94.7 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 16%. However, the cumulative transaction for September showed a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [10][12]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 15 cities launched 90 million square meters of new housing, with a total transaction of 86 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.96. The available residential area in these cities was 89.31 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04% [17][19]. Policy and News Tracking - On September 5, 2025, Shenzhen announced further optimization of real estate policies, allowing residents to purchase unlimited units in specific areas, while non-residents are limited to two units. The report also notes changes in personal housing loan interest rate mechanisms and public housing fund policies [27][28]. - The report mentions that several real estate companies are actively distributing dividends and maintaining growth despite market challenges. For instance, China Jinmao announced a dividend of HKD 0.03 per share, while Huafa announced a dividend of CNY 0.02 per share [34][35]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of major real estate companies, noting that leading firms are actively engaging in share buybacks and dividend distributions. For example, China Jinmao and Huafa have announced significant dividends, while companies like Huafa and China Merchants Shekou have also engaged in share repurchase activities [34][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend [3][29]. - The report highlights that the performance of quality companies in the real estate sector remains resilient despite overall industry pressure, with some companies showing significant growth in profits [3][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for new development tracks in the housing market, driven by policies aimed at improving housing quality and affordability, particularly in core cities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.834 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 11.7%. However, this is a decline of 37.1% compared to the average weekly transaction volume in 2024 [4][6]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August 2025 decreased by 20.9% compared to August 2024, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 19.9% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a decline of 32.7% [6][7]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.081 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.2%. Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions in August 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [11][12]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 810,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.81. The average monthly inventory clearance period increased to 22 months [19][20]. - The report notes that the overall financing scale for real estate companies continues to grow, with July 2025 seeing bond financing of 71.39 billion yuan, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [29][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market through effective macro policies, including the issuance of special bonds for land acquisition and urban renewal projects [29][31]. - It highlights various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing accessibility and affordability, such as the introduction of "housing vouchers" in Guangzhou and adjustments to housing fund policies in Beijing and Kunming [29][31]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of key real estate companies, noting that while some companies like Vanke and Greentown China faced profit declines, others like Jianfa International and Greentown Services reported profit growth [3][29]. - It also mentions the successful issuance of bonds by several companies, indicating a positive trend in financing activities within the sector [3][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][34]. - The report highlights significant policy changes, including the implementation of new regulations in Beijing that have led to a 20% increase in new home visits in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road. Additionally, various provinces are focusing on stabilizing the housing market and urban renewal tasks [3][34]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, new home transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.613 million square meters, a decrease of 9% week-on-week. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities fell by 7.9%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 23.5% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in August (up to August 15) decreased by 19.1%, with first and second-tier cities down by 17.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 35.5% [3][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 999,000 square meters, a decrease of 3.6% week-on-week. Cumulatively, transactions in August were down 3% year-on-year [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, 76,000 square meters of new homes were launched in 15 cities, with a transaction volume of 65,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.86. The total available residential area in these cities was 89.15 million square meters, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [3][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 12% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first seven months of 2025, totaling 535.8 billion yuan. Various provinces are implementing measures to stabilize the housing market and promote urban renewal [3][34]. - Specific policies include a reduction in the down payment ratio for housing loans in Suzhou to 15% and the introduction of new measures to support the conversion of commercial properties to residential use in Shanghai [3][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales figures for the first seven months of 2025, with China Resources Land at 123.6 billion yuan (-11.8%) and China Jinmao at 61.8 billion yuan (+23.0%). Dragon Lake Group forecasted a 70% decline in core earnings [3][34]. - Financing activities included the issuance of bonds by various companies, such as a 1.5 billion yuan medium-term note by Dayuecheng Holdings and a total of 1.4 billion yuan in bonds by Yuexiu Property [3][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The overall housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but the recovery of residents' balance sheets may take around two years, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [4]. - The report anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing the market will be introduced, with core cities expected to lead the recovery due to healthier supply-demand dynamics [4]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.758 million square meters, a decrease of 24.3% week-on-week [5]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August (up to August 8) fell by 14.2% compared to July [5][8]. - The transaction-to-launch ratio for new housing was 1.1 times, indicating a slight increase in inventory absorption [22]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.021 million square meters, down 5.2% week-on-week [14]. - Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year [14]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of August 8, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.04 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [22]. - The average months of inventory absorption increased to 20.7 months, indicating a slower pace of sales [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The China Real Estate Association has issued a notice to enhance connections with small and medium-sized real estate companies to support their healthy development [32]. - Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for new home sales in 2025, reducing the expected decline from 15% to 7% [32]. - Beijing has relaxed purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road and introduced supportive policies for first-time homebuyers [32][33]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales for July, with notable declines: - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a monthly sales figure of 11.9 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [4]. - Greentown China announced a projected 90% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - Huafa Group's convertible bond application has been approved by the regulatory authority [4].