行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 2025 年 08 月 24 日 国常会要求有力控股止跌回稳，建发国 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比提升，新房成交推盘比回落。上周(8.16-8.22)34 个重 点城市新房合计成交 183.4 万平米，环比+11.7%，其中，一二线环比+11.7%，三四线 环比+10.2%。8 月(8.1-8.22)34 城一手房成交同比-20.9%，较 7 月-6.7%。其中，一二 线同比-19.9%，三四线同比-32.7%，分别较 7 月-6.3pct 和-12.4pct。上周 13 城二手房 合计成交 108.1 万平米，环比+7.2%；8 月截至上周累计成交同比-0.1%，较 7 月- 1.2pct。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 100 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][34]. - The report highlights significant policy changes, including the implementation of new regulations in Beijing that have led to a 20% increase in new home visits in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road. Additionally, various provinces are focusing on stabilizing the housing market and urban renewal tasks [3][34]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, new home transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.613 million square meters, a decrease of 9% week-on-week. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities fell by 7.9%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 23.5% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in August (up to August 15) decreased by 19.1%, with first and second-tier cities down by 17.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 35.5% [3][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 999,000 square meters, a decrease of 3.6% week-on-week. Cumulatively, transactions in August were down 3% year-on-year [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, 76,000 square meters of new homes were launched in 15 cities, with a transaction volume of 65,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.86. The total available residential area in these cities was 89.15 million square meters, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [3][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 12% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first seven months of 2025, totaling 535.8 billion yuan. Various provinces are implementing measures to stabilize the housing market and promote urban renewal [3][34]. - Specific policies include a reduction in the down payment ratio for housing loans in Suzhou to 15% and the introduction of new measures to support the conversion of commercial properties to residential use in Shanghai [3][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales figures for the first seven months of 2025, with China Resources Land at 123.6 billion yuan (-11.8%) and China Jinmao at 61.8 billion yuan (+23.0%). Dragon Lake Group forecasted a 70% decline in core earnings [3][34]. - Financing activities included the issuance of bonds by various companies, such as a 1.5 billion yuan medium-term note by Dayuecheng Holdings and a total of 1.4 billion yuan in bonds by Yuexiu Property [3][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The overall housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but the recovery of residents' balance sheets may take around two years, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [4]. - The report anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing the market will be introduced, with core cities expected to lead the recovery due to healthier supply-demand dynamics [4]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.758 million square meters, a decrease of 24.3% week-on-week [5]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August (up to August 8) fell by 14.2% compared to July [5][8]. - The transaction-to-launch ratio for new housing was 1.1 times, indicating a slight increase in inventory absorption [22]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.021 million square meters, down 5.2% week-on-week [14]. - Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year [14]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of August 8, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.04 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [22]. - The average months of inventory absorption increased to 20.7 months, indicating a slower pace of sales [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The China Real Estate Association has issued a notice to enhance connections with small and medium-sized real estate companies to support their healthy development [32]. - Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for new home sales in 2025, reducing the expected decline from 15% to 7% [32]. - Beijing has relaxed purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road and introduced supportive policies for first-time homebuyers [32][33]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales for July, with notable declines: - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a monthly sales figure of 11.9 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [4]. - Greentown China announced a projected 90% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - Huafa Group's convertible bond application has been approved by the regulatory authority [4].