证券研究报告 建筑装饰 报告日期：2024年04月 01日 主业质效提升，业绩稳健增长 ——中国中铁（601390.SH）2023 年报点评报告 华龙证券研究所 事件： 2024年3月29日，公司发布2023年年报：2023年，公司实现营 投资评级：增持（首次覆盖） 业收入 1.26万亿元，同比增长 9.5%；实现归母净利润 34.83 亿元，同 最近一年走势 比增长7.07%。 观点：  综合基建龙头，业绩增长符合预期。报告期内，基础设施建设仍为 公司最大收入来源，其中铁路、公路、市政及其他业务同比分别增 长 25.25%、3.3%、6.83%，基建板块整体实现营收 1.09 万亿元， 同比增长 10.58%。同时，公司开展基建项目管理效益提升行动， 报告期内基建业务毛利率同增 0.44pct 至 8.86%，带动公司收入增 长9.5%至 1.26万亿元。设计咨询、装备制造、地产开发实现收入 分别为182.56/273.77/509.14亿元，同比分别-1.94%、5.95%、-4.76%。 市场数据 报告期内铜、钼等金属价格处于相对高位，资源利用板块实现收入 83.67亿元，同增11.49%，毛利率为5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 8.36 CNY, maintaining the current rating [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1,263.475 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.483 billion CNY, up 7.07% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue growth was driven by a significant increase in railway engineering revenue, which grew by 25.25% year-on-year [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total of 58,764.10 billion CNY in uncompleted contracts, approximately 4.65 times its 2023 revenue [6]. - The mining business is expected to undergo a value reassessment due to the company's leading reserves in copper, cobalt, and molybdenum, with the mining segment's revenue and net profit margins being significantly higher than the overall company averages [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,263.475 billion CNY, with quarterly growth rates of +2.07%, +8.40%, +1.48%, and +24.53% respectively [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin improved to 10.01%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year, with infrastructure and equipment manufacturing segments showing notable improvements [2]. Cash Flow and Orders - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 38.363 billion CNY in 2023, marking the 11th consecutive year of positive cash flow [6]. - New contracts signed in 2023 amounted to 31,006 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.20% [6]. Mining Business - The company has established five modern mines, leading in domestic reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum, with the mining segment's revenue reaching 24.258 billion CNY in 2023 [7]. - The mining business is currently undervalued, and with rising resource prices, it is expected to see a reassessment of its value [7]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,399.930 billion CNY, 1,525.924 billion CNY, and 1,632.738 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 37.541 billion CNY, 41.188 billion CNY, and 44.581 billion CNY [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with a revenue of 1.26 trillion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.483 billion yuan, up 7.07% year-on-year [3] - The company achieved a total new contract amount of 3.1006 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 2.2%. The construction business accounted for the largest share, with new contracts amounting to 2.25097 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4% [3] - The company is focusing on emerging business areas, including artificial intelligence and new energy, with new contracts in these sectors reaching 382.67 billion yuan, a growth of 6% [3] - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 10.01%, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, a slight decrease from the previous year [3] - The company is a key player in the "Belt and Road" initiative, with overseas revenue of 62.256 billion yuan, up 6.54% year-on-year, and new overseas contracts amounting to 199.79 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [3] - The company expects revenue growth of 6.89%, 7.36%, and 7.83% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 10.20%, 11.43%, and 12.15% for the same years [3] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.263475 trillion yuan and a net profit of 33.483 billion yuan [8] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.350520 trillion yuan, 1.449910 trillion yuan, and 1.563499 trillion yuan, respectively [8] - The projected net profits for the same years are 36.899 billion yuan, 41.117 billion yuan, and 46.112 billion yuan [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 1.86 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,260.87 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.48 billion yuan, up 7.07% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company has a robust order backlog of 58,764.1 billion yuan, approximately 4.7 times its 2023 revenue, which is expected to support future revenue growth and performance release [1]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing diversification and transformation, particularly in the mineral resources sector, which is anticipated to create a second growth curve [1]. Business Segment Performance - In 2023, the infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development segments generated revenues of 1,088.76 billion, 18.3 billion, 27.4 billion, and 50.9 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, -1.9%, +6.0%, and -4.8% [2]. - The railway business within the infrastructure sector saw significant growth, achieving revenue of 296.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% [2]. - The mineral resources segment maintained stable performance, with copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, and zinc production figures showing varied year-on-year changes [2]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 10.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [3]. - The report indicates that the company experienced an increase in impairment losses totaling 8.17 billion yuan, which impacted overall profitability [3]. - Cash flow from operations (CFO) for 2023 was 38.36 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.19 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating room for improvement in cash flow management [3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35.45 billion, 37.41 billion, and 39.36 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 6%, and 5% [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the mineral resources segment will contribute significantly to the company's profitability, particularly with the recent rise in copper prices [2][4].

公 司 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 基建市政工程 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃d 中yCo 国mp 中any＃铁 （ 601390 ） investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tion ）Ch 60 Q13 490 转＃ 加titl 速e＃ 新 签 订单及结 ，现 金流保持良好 ange＃ ＃ createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 29日 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃ sum 事ma 件ry＃ ⚫ ： 中国中铁发布 2023 年年报：公司 2023 年实现营业收入 12634.75 亿 司 市场数据日期 2024-03-29 元，同比增长9.5%；实现归母净利润334.83亿元，同比增长7.07%；实现扣 点 收盘价（元） 7.01 非后归母净利润308.72亿元，同比增长9.30%。公司公告2023年每10股派 评 总股本（百万股） 24750.63 发红利2.10元，合计派发现金红利51.98亿元，分红率15.52%，对应3月28 报 流通股本（百万股） 24626.84 日收盘价股息率 3.1%。公司同日公告《2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1,263.48 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.45%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33.48 billion yuan, up 7.07% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to achieve a total operating revenue of approximately 1,300 billion yuan in 2024, which is a 2.89% increase, with new contract amounts expected to reach about 3,300 billion yuan, a 6.43% increase [5] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.20 percentage points to 10.01% in 2023, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 2.99% due to increased impairment and investment losses [5] - The company has a robust order growth, with a backlog of contracts amounting to 58,764.1 billion yuan, which is 4.65 times its 2023 revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company experienced a significant revenue increase of 24.53% and a net profit increase of 14.56% compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s revenue growth rates for each quarter in 2023 were 2.07%, 8.40%, 1.48%, and 24.53% respectively [5] - The company’s operating cash flow net inflow was 38.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.91% year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The revenue from infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and resource utilization was 1,087.59 billion yuan, 18.26 billion yuan, 27.38 billion yuan, 50.91 billion yuan, and 8.37 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of +10.58%, -1.94%, +5.95%, -4.76%, and +11.49% [5] - The company’s mineral resource segment, particularly China Railway Resources, contributed 14% to the net profit, with a revenue of 24.26 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.19 billion yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company expects EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 1.53 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 7.64 to 9.17 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 5-6 times for 2024 [5] - The company’s copper and molybdenum production capacity ranks among the top in the domestic industry, with copper production of 283,800 tons and molybdenum production of 15,200 tons in 2023 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Railway Group (601390) with a target price of 8.7 CNY per share [2]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue reaching 1.26 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.45%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.48 billion CNY, up 7.07% year-on-year [2]. - The company has a rich resource base, particularly in mineral resources, which contributed 14% to its performance [2]. - The new contracts signed in 2023 totaled 3.10 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, with significant growth in orders for highways, urban rail, and housing construction [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1,263.48 billion CNY, with a net profit of 334.83 billion CNY. The quarterly revenue growth rates were +2.1%, +8.4%, +1.5%, and +24.5% respectively [2]. - **Segment Performance**: Revenue from infrastructure construction increased by 10.58% to 1.09 trillion CNY, while real estate development saw a decline of 4.76% to 509 billion CNY [2]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross margin improved slightly to 10.15%, with a notable increase in the gross margin for resource utilization to 59.70% [2]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.45 CNY, 1.57 CNY, and 1.72 CNY per share respectively [2]. Key Financial Indicators - **Main Revenue (Million CNY)**: 2023A: 1,263,475; 2024E: 1,369,608; 2025E: 1,482,242; 2026E: 1,601,481 [8]. - **Net Profit (Million CNY)**: 2023A: 33,483; 2024E: 35,957; 2025E: 38,902; 2026E: 42,504 [8]. - **Debt Ratio**: The asset-liability ratio stands at 74.86% [5].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年03月29日 中国中铁（601390.SH） Q4 收入业绩显著提速，资源板块价值有望重估 Q4业绩增长提速，全年增速符合预期。公司2023年实现营业收入12608亿元，同 买入（维持） 比增长9.5%；实现归母净利润335亿元，同增7%；扣非业绩309亿元，同增9%， 股票信息 业绩稳增符合预期。分季度看，Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4营收分别同增2%/8%/2%/25%；归 母净利润分别变动+4%/+11%/-1.5%/+15%，Q4 收入与业绩增长显著提速，预计 行业 基础建设 主要因公司加快推动在手项目执行，订单转化率有所提升。分业务看，基建板块实 前次评级 买入 现营收10876亿元，同增11%，其中铁路/公路/市政及其他分别同增25%/3%/7%； 3月28日收盘价(元) 6.81 设计/设备制造/地产板块分别实现营收183/274/509亿元，同比-2%/+6%/-5%；其 他业务实现营收793亿元，同增9%，其中矿产资源/资产运营分别同增11%/46%。 总市值(百万元) 168,551.79 分区域看，境内/境外分别实现营收12012/623亿元，同增10% ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 reached CNY 1,260,841,083, an increase of 9.50% compared to CNY 1,151,501,114 in 2022 [24]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 33,482,775, reflecting a growth of 7.07% from CNY 31,272,886 in the previous year [24]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 30,872,445, which is a 9.30% increase from CNY 28,246,828 in 2022 [24]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 reached CNY 1,260.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.50% [78]. - The net profit for 2023 was 37.636 billion RMB, an increase of 7.63% compared to the previous year [36]. - The EBITDA for the year reached 76.503 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 10.56% year-on-year [36]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 9,471,075 for the fourth quarter of 2023, with a total operating revenue of CNY 377,923,501 [32]. - The gross profit margin for the infrastructure construction segment improved to 8.86%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year [80]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% [155]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2.10 per 10 shares, totaling approximately RMB 5.20 billion based on a total share capital of 24,750,629,817 shares [2]. - The cash dividend per 10 shares is set at ¥2.10, with no stock dividends or capital increases planned [195]. - The total cash dividend amount (including tax) is approximately ¥5.20 billion, representing 15.52% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the consolidated financial statements [195]. - In 2022, the company distributed cash dividends totaling RMB 4.95 billion, accounting for 15.82% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [185]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and achieve stable profit growth while optimizing key performance indicators in 2024 [132]. - The company plans to achieve an operating revenue of approximately 1,300 billion RMB in 2024, with expected new contract amounts of around 3,300 billion RMB [132]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development and innovation-driven growth, transitioning from debt-driven to accumulation and innovation-driven development [131]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 25% market share by 2025 [152]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its position in the infrastructure sector, with a budget of 1 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [156]. Operational Performance and Investments - The company signed new contracts worth 3,100.6 billion RMB in 2023, which is a 2.2% increase from 2022 [36]. - The company achieved a new contract amount of 3,100.60 billion RMB, completing 96.9% of the annual target of 3,200 billion RMB [132]. - The total amount of in-progress projects reached 47,283.20 billion RMB, with 8,398 projects across various sectors [101]. - The company has established a multi-layered financial service system represented by China Railway Trust Co., Ltd., China Railway Finance Co., Ltd., and China Railway Capital Co., Ltd. [66]. - The company is investing 500 million yuan in R&D for new technologies in sustainable construction practices [152]. Risk Management and Governance - The company has established a risk management and internal control system to assess, monitor, and warn against major risks, ensuring overall risk control [134]. - The company is actively working on risk prevention and resolution related to real estate investment, cash flow, international operations, infrastructure investment, and debt risks [172]. - The company has implemented a performance evaluation mechanism for senior management, linking compensation closely to performance outcomes [198]. - The company has maintained a high-quality information disclosure process, with 304 announcements made throughout the year, achieving an A-level rating for 15 consecutive years from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [137]. Innovation and Technology - The company is committed to technological innovation and the transformation of research achievements into practical applications [15]. - The company launched several innovative products, including the world's first green shield machine and the first hydrogen energy subway construction vehicle, showcasing significant technological advancements [40]. - The company has a total of 38,676 patents, showcasing its strong focus on innovation and technology [72]. - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industry layouts, aligning with national policies for green and low-carbon development [43]. Employee Development and Training - The company has trained over 1.11 million employees, with more than 90% of the workforce participating in training programs [183]. - The average training hours for senior management were 106 hours, while middle management averaged 98 hours [183]. - The company employs 27,970 R&D personnel, accounting for 9.31% of the total workforce, with 264 holding doctoral degrees [90]. Market Position and Recognition - China Railway Group ranked second among the ENR Global Top 250 Contractors and has been listed in the Fortune Global 500 for 18 consecutive years [15]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top 30 central enterprises in brand building capabilities [15]. - The company has been recognized as a "Best ESG Practice Case 2023" by the China Listed Companies Association, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development [138].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 建筑工程业/工业 [ Table_Main[中ITnaf 国bol]e 中_Ti铁tle]( 601390) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 净利增 7.1%符合预期，铜等矿产资源有望重估 目标价格： 11.50 上次预测： 11.50 公 ——中国中铁2023 年报点评 当前价格： 6.81 司 韩其成(分析师) 郭浩然(分析师) 陈剑鑫(研究助理) 2024.03.29 更 021-38676162 010-83939793 021-38038262 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 hanqicheng8@gtjas.com guohaoran025968@gtjas.com chenjianxin027974@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880516030004 S0880524020002 S0880123030056 52周内股价区间（元） 5.39-9.30 报 总市值（百万元） 168,552 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 24,751/20,419 流通 B股/H股（百万股 ...