· 建筑行业 | 1,160,311 | 1,154,324 | 1,169,271 | 1,193,811 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -8.2% | -0.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | | 27,887 | 26,425 | 27,477 | 28,383 | | -16.7% | -5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.15 | | 5.07 | 5.36 | 5.15 | 4.99 | | 维持评级 | | --- | 龙天光 | 市场数据 | 2025-11-13 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 601390.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 5.72 | | 上证指数 | 4029.50 | | 总股本(万股) | 2474100.89 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 2047485.79 | | 流通 A 股市值(乙元) | 1174.52 | 公司点评报告 · 建筑行业 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资 ...

南方财经11月14日电，南财投研通数据显示，11月13日，券商给予上市公司目标价共6次，按最新收盘 价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有胜宏科技、中国中铁、建投能源，目标价涨幅分别为35.50%、 31.12%、26.00%，分别属于元件、基础建设、电力行业。从券商推荐家数来看，11月13日有57家上市 公司得到券商推荐，其中福田汽车、中国广核、京沪高铁等均获得1家推荐。评级调高方面，山西证券 对移远通信的评级从"增持"调高至"买入"。查看原文：57股获券商推荐，胜宏科技目标价涨幅超35%｜ 券商评级观察刚刚 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国中铁(00390)发布公告，于2025年11月12日斥资1999.975万元回购350.29万股A 股。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國中鐵股份有限公司 第 2 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 FF305 變動日期 2025年11月12日 呈交日期： 2025年11月13日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [9] Core Views - The construction sector exhibits characteristics such as low valuation, low institutional holdings, large market capitalization, and stable outlook for quality targets. The report identifies four key investment directions within the construction industry: 1) Companies with strong Q3 performance and short-term earnings certainty 2) High dividend yield stocks providing a safety cushion 3) Strong long-term growth potential 4) Large-cap stocks with low absolute valuations [5][6][7] Summary by Sections Valuation Metrics - As of the latest closing, the Jiangsu Construction Index has a PE ratio of 12.83, ranking 28th across all industries, with a 10-year percentile of 68.5%. The PB ratio stands at 0.84, ranking 31st, with a 10-year percentile of 16.22%. Notably, the construction sector and the banking sector are the only indices within the Jiangsu framework that are trading below book value [5][6] Institutional Holdings - The construction sector has historically low institutional holdings, which may reflect a weak outlook for the industry and a lack of attention from investors. This could lead to undervaluation of high-quality construction stocks [6] Market Capitalization - The construction sector has a limited number of listed companies, with eight major state-owned enterprises collectively valued at 941.19 billion, accounting for 47% of the Jiangsu Construction Index's market capitalization. These enterprises play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth and are likely to be favored in a market shift towards undervalued sectors [6][7] Investment Directions - **Direction One**: Focus on companies with strong Q3 earnings, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others, which show robust growth and sufficient order backlogs [7] - **Direction Two**: Invest in high dividend yield stocks like Jianghe Group (6.2%), Sichuan Road and Bridge (5.6%), and others, which provide a strong holding safety net [7] - **Direction Three**: Target companies with strong long-term growth potential, such as Honglu Steel Structure and others benefiting from semiconductor capital expenditure [7] - **Direction Four**: Invest in large-cap stocks with low absolute valuations, including eight major state-owned enterprises that are all trading below book value [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - In September, central enterprise orders improved, and the decline in investment narrowed. The manufacturing PMI fell significantly in October, indicating a marginal weakening in industry prosperity, while the construction PMI slightly decreased, aligning with seasonal trends [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment in September was 4.5 trillion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, with a cumulative fixed asset investment of 37.2 trillion yuan for the year, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year. Narrowly defined infrastructure investment showed a smaller decline compared to previous months [7][25]. - The physical workload showed improvement in October, with cement output declining at a slower rate, and cement dispatch volumes increased marginally [8][50]. - Project funding is being prioritized, with a funding rate of 59.7% for construction sites as of October 28, showing a slight week-on-week increase [9][57]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - Central enterprise orders improved in September, with most central enterprises showing positive growth in domestic orders. Notably, China Chemical and China Railway Construction saw significant growth rates of 18.11% and 9.38%, respectively [7][42][44]. - The overall order growth for major construction central enterprises in Q3 was 5.02% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and overseas markets [42][44]. Physical Workload - Cement production saw a year-on-year decline of 5.2% from January to September, with a more pronounced drop of 8.6% in September alone. However, cement dispatch volumes showed a week-on-week increase of 8.0% in late October [8][50]. Project Funding - The funding rate for construction projects was reported at 59.7%, with non-residential projects at 61.15% and residential projects at 52.81% as of late October. The issuance of special bonds reached 39.646 billion yuan year-to-date, with a 90% completion rate [9][59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with total revenue of 773.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.490 billion yuan, down 14.97% [5][10]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a decrease in infrastructure construction activities [10]. - The company has shown significant growth in overseas contracts, with a 35.2% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed abroad [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 773.814 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.490 billion yuan, down 14.97% [5][10]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 8.64%, a decline of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 2.26%, down 0.25 percentage points [10]. - The cash collection ratio decreased to 94.13%, a drop of 4.49 percentage points year-on-year, with a net cash outflow from operating activities of 72.883 billion yuan [10]. Contractual Developments - The company signed new contracts totaling 1,584.92 billion yuan in the first nine months, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [10]. - The new contracts in engineering construction decreased by 1.9%, while asset management contracts surged by 108.6% [10]. - The domestic new contract amount was 1,418.28 billion yuan, up 1.0%, while the overseas new contract amount reached 166.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.2% [10]. Resource Management - The company operates five modern mines, producing various metals including copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, zinc, and silver, with stable production in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The focus on overseas growth and the reassessment of mineral resources is highlighted as a key area of interest [10].

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that infrastructure is likely to continue being a key stabilizer for the Chinese economy, but expects growth to be more structural rather than broad-based due to the large base [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Growth - UBS anticipates that infrastructure growth will be more structural, especially as the real estate sector has not yet recovered and debt restructuring will take time to show effects [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, infrastructure development should closely align with national priorities, focusing on key areas such as railways, water conservancy, transportation (especially cost-effective logistics), energy, and urban infrastructure [1] Group 2: State-Owned Enterprises - UBS expects leading state-owned enterprises, which have a wide business scope and high revenue base, to face greater pressure on income and profit margins due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] - UBS has downgraded the profit forecasts for state-owned contractors from 2025 to 2027, reflecting lower-than-expected earnings for 2025 and outlook for 2026 [1] Group 3: Government Support and Fiscal Policy - UBS predicts that public sector funding, particularly from the central government, will provide stronger support in 2026 compared to 2025, despite ongoing debt restructuring efforts [1] - Moderate fiscal expansion is expected to increase inflows into the infrastructure sector, aligning with the government's priorities [1] Group 4: Market Adjustments - UBS has raised the target price-to-earnings ratio based on higher expected earnings per share growth, primarily reflecting this year's lower earnings [1]

Group 1 - UBS believes that infrastructure is likely to continue being a key stabilizer for the Chinese economy, with growth expected to be more structural rather than broad-based due to a large base effect [1] - UBS forecasts that infrastructure fixed asset investment (excluding utilities) growth will slightly rebound from 0.4% in 2025 to 3% in 2026, with telecommunications, internet, and water conservancy sectors expected to achieve the highest year-on-year growth in 2026 [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on China Railway (00390) and China Communications Construction (01800), while holding a "Neutral" rating on China Railway Construction (01186), favoring China Railway for its mining business exposure which offers more profit and valuation leverage [1] Group 2 - UBS anticipates stronger support from the public sector, particularly the central government, in 2026 compared to 2025, with moderate fiscal expansion expected to increase funding for infrastructure [2] - Key focus areas for infrastructure development during the 14th Five-Year Plan are likely to include railways, water conservancy, transportation, energy, and urban infrastructure, with opportunities seen in AI, low-altitude economy, communication networks, and smart transportation/cities [2] - UBS has lowered profit forecasts for state-owned contractors from 2025 to 2027 to reflect lower-than-expected 2025 earnings and 2026 outlook, while raising target price-to-earnings ratios based on higher expected earnings growth per share [2]

从资金角度来看，瑞银预期公共部门(特别是中央政府)的资金，将在2026年提供比2025年更强的支持。 尽管政府将在2026年继续推进债务重组工作;瑞银预期，适度的财政扩张将增加流入基础设施的资金绝 对额。然而，瑞银不预期会出现激进或无序的项目上马;增长很可能保持稳健和适度。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，相信基础设施很可能继续成为中国经济的关键稳定器。然而，考 虑到庞大的基数，瑞银预期，基础设施增长将更多是结构性的，而非全面性的。瑞银预期，随着房地产 状况趋稳和财政支持变得更有效，增长压力将缓和;并将估值基础从2025年切换至2026年;同时主要基于 高股息目标，维持对中国中铁(00390)和中国交通建设(01800)的"买入"评级，以及对中国铁建(01186) 的"中性"评级。瑞银更偏好中国中铁(00390)，考虑到其矿业业务敞口，能提供更多的盈利和估值杠 杆。 在此背景下，考虑到房地产行业尚未复苏，且债务重组需时见效，瑞银认为，业务范围广泛、收入基数 高的龙头国有企业可能在收入和利润率方面面临更大压力。因此，瑞银对大型国有建筑企业的看法相当 谨慎，并认为它们的增长潜力可能弱于区域性，或更专业化的基础 ...