[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 风光贡献全部发电增量，关注板块低配高股息 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-21 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 公用事业 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 许子怡 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010002 | | 021-38003618 | | xuziyi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郝兆升 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070001 | | 0755-82557403 | | haozhaosheng@ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the NWHR Electric Production Model (AI EPS V1.0), a groundbreaking AI model designed for the electric power system, emphasizing the need for a smart grid that can adapt and operate efficiently in real-time [1][2]. Group 1: Model Development and Features - The NWHR Electric Production Model is the world's first original electric power model innovated from the ground up, tailored specifically for the characteristics of the electric power system [1]. - The model integrates measurement data, physical laws, and operational regulations, achieving breakthroughs in real-time sensing, precision, and intelligence [2]. - A spatial-temporal state space model allows for rapid simulation of grid states within approximately tens of milliseconds [2]. Group 2: Performance and Impact - The model enhances the understanding and application of physical laws in the electric grid, translating them into executable functions that ensure safe operations, significantly improving numerical calculation accuracy [2]. - The system has been successfully trialed at the Dali Power Supply Bureau, reducing scheduling time from hours to minutes and increasing green electricity generation by over 120 million kilowatt-hours annually, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 60,000 tons [2]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - The research team plans to iteratively optimize the NWHR model during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on the technical evolution from city-level to provincial and regional grids for better coordination and optimization of energy resources [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The future narrative for thermal power is expected to shift towards enhanced profitability stability and increased dividends due to rising capacity prices and deeper assessments by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [2][60] - In the short term, integrated coal power companies are likely to have a comparative advantage as coal prices rise, with a consensus forming around an increase in the coal price baseline for next year [2][6] - Renewable energy companies, despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and subsidy delays, have shown considerable absolute returns, supported by improving policies for green energy development [6][8] Group 2: Thermal Power Analysis - Historical performance of thermal power shows a certain "counter-cyclical" nature, with earnings often moving inversely to coal prices, which are now market-driven [19][26] - The current policy framework limits the duration of profitability expectations for thermal power, leading to a "high first, low second" characteristic in the market for 2023 and 2024 [6][45] - The expected increase in capacity prices across provinces by 2026 will enhance the fixed cost recovery ability of coal power plants, significantly improving profitability stability [60][64] Group 3: Renewable Energy Insights - The renewable energy sector is currently facing multiple issues, including market price pressure and subsidy delays, but the gradual improvement in policy support is expected to create investment opportunities [6][8] - Companies with low valuations, high wind power ratios, and strong regional price certainty are still worth considering for investment despite the uncertain timing of policy impacts [2][6] Group 4: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Leading hydropower companies exhibit high earnings certainty and dividend ratios, making them attractive for long-term investment [7] - Nuclear power is anticipated to see significant capacity growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stable long-term price expectations despite some market price fluctuations [8][60] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as leading hydropower firms like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9] - In the renewable sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 華電國際電力股份有限公司 Huadian Power International Corporation Limited* （在中華人民共和國（「中國」）註冊成立之中外合資股份有限公司） （股份代碼：1071） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第 13.10B 條而作出。 茲載列華電國際電力股份有限公司（「本公司」）在上海證券交易所網站刊登的公告，僅 供參閱。 承董事會命 華電國際電力股份有限公司 秦介海 关于中国华电非上市常规能源发电资产 2024 年度核查情况的公告 董事會秘書 於本公告日期，本公司董事會由下列董事組成： 劉雷（董事長、執行董事）、李泉城（副董事長、執行董事）、朱鵬（副董事長、非執行 董事）、曾慶華（非執行董事）、曹敏（非執行董事）、王曉渤（非執行董事）、李國明（執 行董事）、祝月光（執行董事）、豐鎮平（獨立非執行董事）、王躍生（獨立非執行董事）、 沈 ...

关于中国华电非上市常规能源发电资产 2024 年度核查情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、基本情况 华电国际电力股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）控股股东中国华电集团有限公 司（以下简称"中国华电"）于 2014 年 8 月做出承诺，将按照有利于解决同业竞争、避 免发生实质性同业竞争的原则，原则上以省（或区域）为单位，将同一省内（或区域内） 的相关资产注入本公司。具体操作方案将结合中国华电相关资产状况、资本市场认可程 度等因素，积极稳步推进。中国华电将在每年财务决算后，对非上市常规能源发电资产 是否符合注入条件进行核查，并进行披露。中国华电将在非上市常规能源发电资产满足 资产注入条件后三年内，完成向本公司注入资产的工作。 二、已注入资产情况 截至 2024 年底，中国华电已注入本公司常规能源发电资产在运装机容量合计 10,010 兆瓦，具体如下： | 注入资产情况 | 注入时间 | 注入资产规模 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （兆瓦） | | 华电湖北发电有限公司 82.5 ...

华电国际公告称，控股股东中国华电2014年做出资产注入承诺，截至2024年底已注入常规能源发电资产 在运装机容量10,010兆瓦。截至2024年底，中国华电控股的已投运境内非上市常规能源发电资产在运装 机容量65,001.418兆瓦，其中部分资产已满足注入条件并启动注入工作。2025年7月11日，公司通过发行 股份及支付现金完成并购重组，相关资产已过户。其他部分资产因存在问题尚不满足注入条件，注入时 间和方式未确定。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].

Core Insights - The "M&A Six Guidelines" have significantly transformed the capital market in 2025, with over 800 asset mergers and acquisitions (M&A) recorded, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, and 90 major asset restructurings, a 55% increase from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity - In 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw 806 new asset restructurings, with major asset restructurings accounting for 90 cases, reflecting a growing market activity and participation [2][3] - The number of major asset restructurings in the Shanghai market reached 1,177 since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines," indicating a robust trend towards M&A as a primary channel for capital market activities [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The revised "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in May 2025 has shifted the focus from an "audit-oriented" to an "efficiency-oriented" and "industry-oriented" approach, enhancing the regulatory environment for M&A [2] - Local governments are actively promoting M&A, with cities like Shanghai implementing supportive policies that have led to a notable increase in both the quantity and quality of M&A activities [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - Over 50% of the major asset restructurings in 2025 were industry mergers, with a significant focus on sectors like semiconductors and the automotive industry, indicating a shift towards quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [3][7] - The trend of "stock optimization" is evident, with 77% of disclosed major asset restructurings involving industry mergers, reflecting a broader consensus on long-term value creation [6][7] Group 4: Notable Transactions - In 2025, significant transactions included the mergers of Guotai Junan with Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, each valued in the thousands of millions [5] - Innovative cross-border M&A transactions have emerged, such as the cash privatization of Hong Kong-listed companies and the cross-border share swap acquisitions, showcasing the evolving landscape of M&A strategies [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to deepen its understanding of M&A as a critical pathway for reshaping business structures and enhancing core competitiveness, contributing to a healthier M&A ecosystem [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity consumption and solid waste management in the context of the "dual carbon" goals set for 2026, suggesting a focus on the green electricity sector for potential valuation recovery [4][8] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in electricity prices and the need for adjustments in the installation rhythm of new green electricity projects based on regional supply and demand [4][3] - The report suggests that the electricity market reform is progressing, with a focus on expanding the electricity spot market and auxiliary services, while also noting the transformation of thermal power's functional positioning [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW public utility sector experienced a slight decline of 0.09% this week, ranking 11th among 31 SW sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [23] - Among sub-sectors, thermal power increased by 0.22%, while hydropower decreased by 0.26% [23] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector this week were: Jiaze New Energy (+9.71%), Yinxing Energy (+8.58%), Zhongtai Co. (+7.79%), Xichang Power (+5.38%), and Chenzhou International (+4.14%) [29] Price Updates - The report notes a significant drop in thermal coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price decreasing by 39 CNY/ton this week [2][9] - The average settlement price for electricity in Guangdong was reported at 292.88 CNY/MWh, down from 354.64 CNY/MWh the previous week [10] Key Events - Various provinces have begun releasing results for the "136" document's incremental project bidding, with significant volumes of green electricity being auctioned at varying prices [3][7] - The Central Economic Work Conference reiterated the commitment to the "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive green transition and the expansion of green electricity applications [8]