Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing's business empire is undergoing a significant withdrawal from the mainland Chinese real estate market, with a notable shift in revenue sources towards Europe and a drastic reduction in mainland operations [6][7][27]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Property Holdings has initiated a "clearance sale" of over 400 residential units in Guangdong, with prices dropping significantly, such as units in Huizhou selling for as low as 400,000 HKD [6][12][15]. - The revenue contribution from mainland China has shrunk to 5%, while Hong Kong accounts for only 7%, and Europe now contributes 50% of the total revenue [6][27]. - The average price per square meter for properties like Dongguan Haiyi Haoting has plummeted from 44,000 HKD to 18,000 HKD, marking a 64.8% decrease [14][16]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategy - Li Ka-shing's entry into the mainland real estate market began in 1992 with the Beijing Oriental Plaza project, which remains one of the most profitable commercial real estate projects in the region [18]. - His strategy has historically involved acquiring land at low prices and developing over long periods to maximize value, as seen in projects like the Beijing Dongsi Huayuan, which was acquired at 1,750 HKD per square meter and is now valued at 70,000 HKD [18][19]. - The shift in market dynamics and regulatory changes since 2015 have rendered his previous strategies less effective, prompting a series of asset sales starting in 2013 [22][23]. Group 3: Ongoing Withdrawal and Future Outlook - Since 2013, Li Ka-shing has sold over 250 billion HKD worth of assets in mainland China and Hong Kong, redirecting investments towards European infrastructure [26][27]. - As of mid-2025, Cheung Kong Property Holdings reported a land reserve of approximately 622,000 square meters, with 86% located in mainland China, down from over 1 million square meters in 2013 [27][28]. - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 6.302 billion HKD, a nearly 27% decline year-on-year, primarily due to significant reductions in property valuations [28].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing is rapidly selling off properties in the Bay Area at significantly discounted prices, signaling a strategic retreat rather than a typical business operation [3][4][6]. Group 1: Asset Disposal Strategy - At 97 years old, Li Ka-shing is executing asset sales at an unprecedented pace, reflecting his lifelong capital philosophy [4]. - His approach is characterized by a unique asset value arbitrage model, which is now being challenged by changing market conditions [8]. - The strategy of "buying low, holding long, and selling high" has been effective, but recent policy shifts are altering the landscape [10][17]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Policy Changes - The Chinese government's 2025 directive to "activate idle land" is fundamentally changing the rules for property developers, ending the era of land hoarding [17][18]. - Longfor Group's land reserves in mainland China have decreased from 6.59 million square meters in 2020 to 5.57 million square meters in 2024, marking a historical low [20]. - The company's sales in mainland China plummeted over 90% from their peak in 2020, indicating a shift from expansion to strategic contraction [22]. Group 3: Recent Sales and Financial Implications - Longfor Group's recent sale of 400 properties at "fire sale" prices, with some starting at approximately 400,000 yuan, reflects a shift towards minimizing risk and ensuring cash flow [25]. - Since 2013, Li Ka-shing has liquidated over 200 billion yuan in assets, with 70% of these sales occurring in mainland China, indicating a significant capital reallocation [27]. - The company is also divesting from politically sensitive assets, such as global ports, while investing heavily in stable public utility sectors in the UK [29][31]. Group 4: Long-term Goals and Wealth Preservation - Li Ka-shing's recent actions are not panic-driven but rather a calculated strategic shift aimed at wealth preservation and ensuring a stable legacy for his family [33]. - The ongoing global capital flow signifies the end of a specific business model in China and raises questions about the future of accumulated wealth and the role of new investors [35].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has risen to 2% as of October 18, marking the first increase since early May [1] - The banking system's surplus has decreased from a peak of HKD 177 billion to HKD 53 billion, compared to HKD 44 billion before the liquidity influx [1] - The expectation is that Hong Kong developers' stock prices will experience weakness as HIBOR returns to forecast levels and floating-rate mortgages are repriced to a maximum of 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The overall view on the Hong Kong residential property market remains that it will slowly rebound, with an expectation of flat prices this year and a rebound of 5% and 6% over the next two years [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), while holding a "Sell" rating for Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that the basic profit of the company increased by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, aligning with the interim dividend [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Despite a decline in rental income, the company's recurring income remained stable due to robust growth in bar operations and infrastructure projects [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 31.3 to HKD 34.1, while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - It is believed that the profit drag from residential properties in Hong Kong will decrease starting in 2026, as the company plans to launch major projects by the end of 2025 [1] - Sufficient provisions have been made for these projects, including Blue Coast and Flower Language Sea, which are both high-cost land projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has raised the target price for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) by 9% from HKD 31.3 to HKD 34.1 while maintaining a "Hold" rating, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the company [1] Financial Performance - The group's core profit is expected to increase by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with interim earnings per share dividends remaining flat, aligning with expectations [1] - Despite a decline in rental income, recurring revenue remains resilient due to robust growth in bar operations and infrastructure projects [1] Market Outlook - The valuation has been extended to 2026, with the necessary yield spread reduced by 1 percentage point to 1%, indicating higher expectations for interest rate cuts and a diminishing drag from Hong Kong residential properties [1] - It is anticipated that the drag from Hong Kong residential properties on profitability will lessen starting in 2026, as the group plans to launch major projects and build sufficient provisions by the end of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has raised the target price for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) by 9% from HKD 31.3 to HKD 34.1 while maintaining a "Hold" rating, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the company's performance [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Target Price Adjustment**: The target price for Cheung Kong Holdings has been increased to HKD 34.1, which is a 9% increase from the previous target price of HKD 31.3 [1] - **Valuation Extension**: The valuation has been extended to 2026, with a necessary yield spread reduction of 1 percentage point to 1%, indicating higher expectations for interest rate cuts and a decrease in the drag from Hong Kong residential properties [1] - **Profit and Dividend Performance**: The group's core profit is expected to grow by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with interim dividends per share remaining stable, aligning with expectations [1] - **Revenue Resilience**: Despite a decline in rental income, the group's recurring revenue remains resilient due to robust growth in bar operations and infrastructure projects [1] - **Future Outlook**: It is anticipated that the drag from Hong Kong residential properties on profitability will lessen starting in 2026, as the group plans to launch major projects and make sufficient provisions by the end of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in demand for low-priced housing in the Greater Bay Area, particularly properties sold by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings at prices as low as 400,000 yuan per unit, which has attracted significant interest from Hong Kong buyers [1][3][5] - Li Ka-shing, known for his land hoarding strategy, is now selling properties at discounted prices, raising questions about market conditions and potential crises [1][5][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sale of 400 units at prices around 7,000 yuan per square meter is significantly lower than Hong Kong's average property prices, which can exceed 80,000 yuan per square meter [3][5] - The disparity in property prices between Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area has led to a frenzy among potential buyers, with many expressing eagerness to purchase [3][5][10] Group 2: Li Ka-shing's Strategy - Li Ka-shing's shift from land hoarding to selling properties at low prices is attributed to changing government policies aimed at revitalizing idle land, which limits developers' ability to hold onto land without developing it [7][9] - The article suggests that this move may be a strategic retreat to liquidate assets and mitigate potential losses, as the real estate market faces increasing risks [7][9] Group 3: Broader Implications - Li Ka-shing's recent attempts to sell a portfolio of port assets for $22.8 billion faced regulatory challenges, highlighting the difficulties in asset liquidation amid changing political landscapes [9] - The article notes a significant decline in Cheung Kong Holdings' land reserves and sales, indicating a broader trend of asset divestment by Li Ka-shing over the past decade [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cheung Kong Holdings, reported an increase in revenue but a decrease in profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to significant markdowns and promotional discounts in a weak market environment [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company recorded a revenue of approximately HKD 25.386 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2]. - Shareholder net profit was approximately HKD 6.302 billion, a decrease of 26.2% compared to the previous year [3]. - Before property revaluation, net profit was approximately HKD 6.805 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.6% [3]. Property Sales - Property sales revenue reached approximately HKD 7.366 billion, a significant increase of 58.92% from HKD 4.635 billion in the same period last year [3]. - However, overall property sales revenue decreased by 2.91% to approximately HKD 1.768 billion, with Hong Kong property sales dropping by 92.91% to about HKD 74 million [4]. - The mainland market showed strong growth, with property sales revenue of approximately HKD 1.469 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [4]. Discount Strategies - The company implemented various discount promotions to stimulate sales in a sluggish market, leading to lower revenue per sale [4]. - A notable promotional campaign in the Greater Bay Area was launched, highlighting that property prices are significantly lower than in Hong Kong [5]. Land Reserves - The company's land reserves have been decreasing, with approximately 67 million square feet available for development, including 6 million square feet in Hong Kong and 58 million square feet in mainland China [6]. - The company plans to continue a cautious strategy in land acquisition, focusing on quality land for future development [7]. Future Outlook - The management indicated that several projects, including those in Singapore and Beijing, are expected to contribute profits in the second half of the year, while some projects may incur losses [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported an increase in revenue but a significant decrease in net profit, indicating a "revenue growth without profit growth" scenario due to discount promotions and property valuation adjustments [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately HKD 25.386 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately HKD 6.302 billion, a decrease of 26.2% compared to the previous year [2]. - Before property revaluation, the net profit was approximately HKD 6.805 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [2]. Property Sales - The company reported property sales revenue of approximately HKD 7.366 billion, a significant increase of 58.92% compared to HKD 4.635 billion in the same period last year [3]. - However, the overall property sales revenue decreased by 2.91% to approximately HKD 1.768 billion, with Hong Kong property sales dropping by 92.91% [3]. - The mainland market showed a strong performance with property sales revenue of approximately HKD 1.469 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [3]. Discount Promotions - The company has been implementing discount promotions to stimulate sales in a weak market, which has led to lower revenue per sale [3][4]. - The company launched a "Greater Bay Area Dual Residence Life" plan, promoting properties at significantly lower prices compared to Hong Kong [5]. Land Reserves and Strategy - The company's land reserves have been decreasing, with approximately 67 million square feet available for development, including 6 million square feet in Hong Kong and 58 million square feet in mainland China [6]. - The company plans to continue a prudent strategy in land acquisition, focusing on quality land for future development [6]. - Management indicated that several projects are expected to contribute profits in the second half of the year, while one project is anticipated to incur losses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cheung Kong Property Holdings, has seen a significant increase in property sales revenue in the first half of the year, but profits have declined due to aggressive discounting strategies to stimulate sales in a weak market [1][3]. Sales Performance - Property sales revenue increased by 58.92% year-on-year, reaching HKD 7.366 billion [1] - The company reported a 117.32% increase in sales from mainland projects, totaling HKD 3.827 billion [3] - Notable discounts included a 30% reduction on properties in Beijing and discounts of 50% to 66% on projects in the Greater Bay Area [4] Profitability - Despite the increase in sales revenue, net profit fell by 2.91% to HKD 1.768 billion [1] - Shareholder profit decreased by 26.2% to HKD 6.302 billion, marking the lowest level in the past decade [3][7] - The profit from property sales was significantly lower than rental income, which generated HKD 3.002 billion with a profit of HKD 2.315 billion [6] Market Conditions - The Hong Kong market showed a slight increase in property sales, with a 7.76% rise in revenue to HKD 2.803 billion, but profits plummeted by 92% to HKD 0.074 billion [4] - The overall property market in Hong Kong has seen a nearly 30% decline since the peak in September 2021 [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its discounting strategy to clear inventory and maintain cash flow [7] - The management expressed a cautious outlook on future profit contributions from property development, focusing instead on stable recurring income [8] - The company holds significant land reserves, with 67 million square feet available for development, primarily in mainland China [7]