证券研究报告 港房财报现积极信号，三重对比股价空间犹存 ——中国香港地产系列研究之五 行业动态跟踪报告 地产行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 杨 侃 投资咨询资格编号：S1060514080002 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520090003 2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 前言：近期新鸿基地产、信和置业、恒隆地产等多家港房发布最新财报，同时2026年年初以来港房股价持续上行，那么港房财报有 哪些变化和亮点，对未来港房股价空间怎么看，我们观点如下： 优质港房财报现改善迹象，打开估值上行空间。新鸿基地产2026财年半年度核心净利润同比增长16.7%，股息同比增长3%，发展物业 减值拨备由上年同期的10.8亿港币降至0，投资物业公允价值变动由-28.8亿港元降至-13.1亿港元，侧面反映香港楼市回暖及商业零 售逐步好转。同时紧抓中国香港楼市复苏契机新增多宗地块，融资成本降至3%。信和置业2026财年半年度核心净利润和股息保持稳 定，在手净现金超500亿港币，积极补充土储有望持续受益楼市复苏。恒隆地产2025年核心净利同比增长3.5%，股息保持稳定，融资 成本降至3.8%。整体来看，港 ...

沉寂许久的香港楼市，终于在2025年迎来系统性的复苏曙光。据香港中原地产统计，2025年全港住宅楼宇买卖登记量创下2021年以来新高，国际投行纷纷看 好香港市场，从高盛到摩根大通，相继将2026年香港楼价升幅预测上调至10%以上，市场情绪正在发生实质性扭转。 债务规模的持续缩小推动财务成本同步下行，截至2025年末，新世界发展的融资成本按年减少约6亿港元至31亿港元，平均利率下降80个基点至3.9%。 2月27日新世界发展有限公司（00017.HK）发布的2026财年中期业绩也验证了这一点。财报显示，新世界2026上半财年合约销售达138亿港元，超越全年目 标半数；核心盈利录得36亿港元，总债务减少17亿港元；香港市场合约销售103亿港元，创下2021年以来最高纪录。 "公司减债策略已见成效，业务发展态势持续向好。"新世界发展执行董事兼行政总裁黄少媚在业绩发布会上表示。透过积极主动的资本管理与业务深耕，新 世界发展正在构筑起更为稳健的财务与业务根基，并清晰规划出可持续的增长路径。 新世界发展执行董事兼行政总裁黄少媚 经营财务双稳格局成型 为应对充满不确定性的行业环境，自2024年以来，新世界发展通过一系列举措 ...

NO.2 多家房企称已不被要求上报三道红线 据智通财经，多家房企相关人士表示，目前其所在公司已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线"指标。 不过，部分出险房企被要求向总部所在城市专班组，定期汇报资产负债率等财务指标；同时部分出险房 企还被要求上报经营恢复情况、化债进展，以及保交楼情况。 点评：此举是房地产行业监管从"行政管控"向"市场化治理"转型的重要信号。未来，监管将持续差异化 发力，优质房企有望迎来融资与经营的双重改善，出险房企则需在严格监管下加速风险出清。 ｜2026年1月29日星期四｜ NO.1 万科两笔境内债展期成功并获深铁23.6亿元借款 1月27日，万科发布公告显示，两笔合计57亿元中期票据"22万科MTN004""22万科MTN005"展期议案获 债权人100%表决通过。同日，第一大股东深铁集团同步提供23.6亿元低息借款，用于偿还公司在公开 市场发行的债券本金与利息，借款期限36个月。 点评：此次展期成功，印证市场化协商与股东信用背书的结合，是当前房企债务化解的有效路径，有望 推动行业从"风险出清"向"稳杠杆"过渡。 NO.3 香港2025年住宅售价指数录得4年来首次年度增长 光明地产1月28 ...

展望今年，业内人士普遍认为，受惠于经济增长、财富效应和低息环境，以及特区政府积极吸引人才和 企业落户香港等因素，进一步增加本地住屋需求，预料香港楼价可延续反弹势头。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 2025年香港楼价按年升3.25% 业内人士：楼市复苏力度明显 中新社香港1月28日电 (记者 魏华都)香港特区政府差饷物业估价署28日公布，2025年香港私人住宅售价 指数按年升3.25%，为连降3年后首次反弹；私人住宅租金指数按年上升4.26%，连升3年。去年12月香 港私人住宅售价指数为298.6点，比上月上升0.23%，连续9个月呈平稳或上升。 高力估价及咨询服务高级董事梁镇峰表示，住宅楼市去年中期起受宏观利率下调、港股持续向好引发财 富效应、人才来港需求带动，加之2024年特区政府宣布全面"撤辣"(撤销住宅物业需求管理措施)，触发 市场炽热情绪。 利嘉阁地产研究部主管陈海潮补充说，若按半年期计算，去年下半年私人住宅售价指数累计上升 4.15%，为2019年下半年以来表现最好的一期，反映楼市复苏力度明显。 2026年伊始，香港楼市新盘热销，二手市场价量齐升。世邦魏理仕香港估值及咨询服务部执行董事郭伟 恩表示，今年1 ...

价格端，香港中原城市领先指数较25年3月低点+8%。 #人口、股市、利率、政策等多重利好共振，助力香港楼市复苏： 1）人才 【申万交运&房地产】多利好共振助力复苏，香港楼市新周期起点，推荐香港港铁公司投资机会 #香港楼市全面复苏，成交量价回升态势良好，存量供给相对紧缺：香港住宅成交量价自25年3月以来稳步回 升，25年香港一手、二手私人住宅买卖合约金额同比均+14%。 4）楼市政策再松绑、减轻房屋交易成本。 #关注香港核心资产投资机会：关注新鸿基地产、恒基地产、新世界发展、信和置业等；商业地产业务方面，推荐 恒隆地产、嘉里建设，关注太古地产、希慎兴业、九龙仓置业、领展房产基金等。 #关注香港核心资产投资机会：推荐港铁公司： 1）公司是香港轨道交通的核心运营主体，采用"铁路+物业"发展模式，网络拓展配套土地反哺，公司拥有庞大的 土地储备资源，香港房地产市场回暖预计公司将加快推出储备土地。 2）公司以香港业务为营运核心，香港车务营运票价具备提价机制，客流逐步复苏增长；香港车站商务、香港物业 租赁及管理业务顺周期属性较强，租金预计将伴随香港经济恢复；中国内地及国际业务稳步推进，国际市场寻求 机会。 【申万交运&房地 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a broad increase, with notable gains in companies such as Hysan Development (up 4.49% to HKD 21.42), Sun Hung Kai Properties (up 3.27% to HKD 113.8), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (up 3.23% to HKD 26.2) [1] - According to a report by CLSA, Hong Kong property prices are showing signs of recovery, with strong sales of new developments and optimistic market sentiment, leading to a year-to-date increase in developer stock prices [1] - CLSA predicts a continued upward trend in property prices, estimating a 5% increase by 2026, although the pace of price growth is expected to moderate due to cooling interest rate expectations and resilient mortgage rates [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has revised its 2026 forecast for Hong Kong residential property prices from a 3% increase to an 8% increase, anticipating further acceleration in 2027 as the market enters a prolonged upward cycle [2] - The bank expects Hong Kong property developers to benefit in the first half of 2026 from improved profit margins, earnings, and net asset value (NAV) growth, with current operating profit margins ranging from 5% to 9% [2] - New transaction volumes for new developments are projected to reach a six-year high, with each 1% increase in property prices estimated to boost NAV by 0.5% and earnings by 1.5% [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a broad increase, with notable gains from companies such as Hysan Development (+4.49%), Sun Hung Kai Properties (+3.27%), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (+3.23%) [1] - According to a report by Credit Lyonnais, Hong Kong property prices are showing signs of recovery, with strong sales of new developments and optimistic market sentiment, leading to a year-to-date increase in developer stock prices [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts a continued upward trend in property prices, but expects the rate of increase to be moderate due to cooling interest rate expectations and resilient mortgage rates, maintaining a forecast of 5% growth in Hong Kong property prices by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has revised its 2026 Hong Kong residential property price forecast from a 3% increase to an 8% increase, anticipating further acceleration in 2027, marking the beginning of a prolonged upward cycle [2] - The bank expects Hong Kong property developers to benefit in the first half of 2026 due to rising profit margins, earnings, and NAV, with new transaction volumes reaching a six-year high [2] - It is estimated that for every 1% increase in property prices, NAV could rise by 0.5% and earnings by 1.5%, with current NAV discounts at 52%, compared to approximately 40% during past property price upcycles [2]

Group 1 - The real estate sector is experiencing significant activity, with stocks such as Dayue City, Chengdu Investment Holdings, and others reaching their daily limit up, while real estate ETFs have seen gains of over 3% [1] - The real estate ETFs tracking the CSI All Share Real Estate Index include major companies like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Vanke A, indicating a concentration of top-tier firms in the investment direction [5] - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a slight decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities, with a 0.3% decrease month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities also experienced price drops [5] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the implementation of real estate policies is enhancing local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city differentiation [6] - Huayuan Securities anticipates that the real estate adjustment cycle may be nearing its end, with historical data suggesting that the current price adjustments in China are relatively sufficient [7] - The trend towards "good housing" is emerging, with a shift in policy focus towards building safe, comfortable, and green homes, indicating potential growth in the high-quality residential market [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three major trends expected in 2026: 1) The adjustment in the real estate market is likely nearing its end, with current price adjustments being relatively sufficient; 2) There are structural opportunities for "good houses" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments; 3) The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated to continue, driven by multiple favorable factors [5][40]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.0%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 3.5% during the week [5][8]. - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were *ST Yangguang (+10.2%), Daming City (+8.8%), Tibet City Investment (+5.0%), Nandu Property (+4.7%), and Guangming Real Estate (+4.7%). The top five losers included Huaxia Happiness (-29.8%), ST Zhongdi (-16.7%), China Wuyi (-15.8%), Rongsheng Development (-13.9%), and Caixin Development (-11.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.45 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.3%, but a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 16, new housing transactions totaled 3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 32.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [16]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.16 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.9%, but a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [27]. - For January up to the week of January 16, second-hand housing transactions totaled 4.3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [30]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly announced new policies to extend personal income tax incentives for residents purchasing new homes [40]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority have lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at supporting inventory reduction and market revitalization [40]. - Various local policies have been introduced, such as Shanghai's support for converting existing commercial buildings into elderly care facilities and Shenzhen's "Housing and Entrepreneurship Support Plan" providing three years of tiered rent support [40]. Company Announcements - In December, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Yuexiu Real Estate at 8.996 billion (down 33.4% YoY), China Overseas Land & Investment at 1.99 billion (down 31.0% YoY), and China Resources Land at 41 billion (up 28.1% YoY) [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has contributed to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks for rental stocks are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]