随着市场成交的回暖，部分机构对香港房价走势也有了积极期盼。12月9日，中原地产预计2026年香港楼市将处于反弹初期，全年房价涨幅或达15%；仲 量联行香港主席曾焕平也在12月10日指出，香港楼价今年已见底，对2026年前景持审慎乐观态度，预期中小型住宅价格将上升约5%。 12月15日下午，中原地产香港西半山首席营业董事李巍在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时表示，"减息周期和租购倒挂"是推 动今年香港楼市成交大幅反弹的重要原因。 香港楼市在2025年第四季度迎来了重要转折。 短短两个月内，阿里巴巴、京东两大内地互联网巨头斥资超百亿港元，密集购入香港核心区写字楼。与此同时，地产界名人率先行动，内地高净值人群与 本地刚需客亦同步入场，带动整体成交回暖。 中原地产数据显示，2025年1—11月，香港一手住宅成交1.88万宗，二手住宅成交3.58万宗，均创近年峰值。 "2025年香港放宽印花税门槛，进入减息周期，置业门槛下降，而且港股走好，财富效应刺激买家入市意欲。租金已连续上升3年，首11个月累升4.84%， 进一步吸引投资客入市收租。与此同时，减息后'供平过租'（注：指购买房产后每月的按揭供楼 ...

每经记者｜陈荣浩 每经编辑｜许绍航 陈梦妤 香港楼市在2025年第四季度迎来了重要转折。 短短两个月内，阿里巴巴、京东两大内地互联网巨头斥资超百亿港元，密集购入香港核心区写字楼。与此同时，地产界名人率先行动，内地高净值人群与 本地刚需客亦同步入场，带动整体成交回暖。 中原地产数据显示，2025年1—11月，香港一手住宅成交1.88万宗，二手住宅成交3.58万宗，均创近年峰值。 随着市场成交的回暖，部分机构对香港房价走势也有了积极期盼。12月9日，中原地产预计2026年香港楼市将处于反弹初期，全年房价涨幅或达15%；仲 量联行香港主席曾焕平也在12月10日指出，香港楼价今年已见底，对2026年前景持审慎乐观态度，预期中小型住宅价格将上升约5%。 12月15日下午，中原地产香港西半山首席营业董事李巍在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时表示，"减息周期和租购倒挂"是推 动今年香港楼市成交大幅反弹的重要原因。 "2025年香港放宽印花税门槛，进入减息周期，置业门槛下降，而且港股走好，财富效应刺激买家入市意欲。租金已连续上升3年，首11个月累升4.84%， 进一步吸引投资客入市收租。与此同时，减息后 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery momentum of Hong Kong's residential market is expected to continue into 2026, following a significant turnaround in 2025 [1][2] - The recovery in the residential market is driven by a combination of global economic conditions, local supply-demand changes, and policy benefits, with a notable increase in housing transactions in 2025 [1] - As of November 2025, the transaction volume for new private residential properties reached 18,800 units, with an expected annual total surpassing 20,000 units, while the secondary market is projected to reach 39,000 transactions for the year [1] Group 2 - Demand-side factors include talent attraction policies such as the "High-end Talent Pass Scheme" and the "Quality Talent Admission Scheme," which are drawing various talents and their families to Hong Kong, alongside an increase in non-local students creating rigid housing demand [2] - The residential rental index has seen a 4% increase year-to-date, and lower borrowing costs are encouraging investors and prompting renters to consider purchasing, thus supporting both transaction volume and property prices [2] - Despite some signs of recovery in commercial real estate, the overall market remains sluggish, and increased public housing supply may pose challenges to the residential market [2]

智通财经APP获悉，香港置业研究部董事王品弟表示，2025年为香港楼市转折之年，在多项利好政策推 动下，市场信心明显恢复，楼价止跌回升，自住、收租、投资三大置业需求支持，标志着市场动力全面 回归。预计2026年三大需求将持续入市，推动楼价在乐观情况下更可望升约10%。 二手市场亦紧随其后，预计全年二手成交量将超过4.5万宗，将创下4年新高。反映市场价格的楼价指数 今年内累升超过4.2%，预计全年升幅约5%，成功扭转过去3年的跌势，显示二手市场呈现价量齐升的格 局。在减息预期与租金上扬的带动下，"租转买"需求与长线投资者纷纷入市，楼市进入良性循环。 一手住宅市场无疑是今年推动楼市的强力引擎。今年截至11月，一手成交量已连续10个月稳站千宗以 上。首11个月一手成交金额接近1900亿港元，超越去年全年总和，创下4年新高;一手成交量已创下2013 年实施一手住宅销售条例以来的新高，全年有望挑战2万宗大关。 王品弟指，纵观2025年，香港楼市已走出调整期，买家信心恢复，积极入市，加上投资者因租金回报改 善而入市。同时，市场流动性的增强也吸引了部分短线资金寻找机会，三大置业需求成为香港楼市复苏 的新格局。预期今年全年楼 ...

总结2025年一手私宅市场，截至12月8日为止，买卖登记量值分别录得1.8819万宗及2092.76亿港元，料 全年相关量值最终可达约1.994万宗及约2210亿港元，将较去年分别再升23%及7%。一手私宅登记量已 是连续3年录得升幅，除进一步上试高位外，亦创近6年最多及近21年次多。至于2025年每宗一手私宅平 均成交价料为1108万港元，同比将跌约12.7%，主因是年内细价物业登记占比较多所致。 截至今年12月8日，二手私宅买卖登记量值分别录3.5285万宗及2617.79亿港元，预期全年登记量最终录 约3.72万宗，较2024年的约3.22万宗上升16%，连涨两年，进一步脱离2023年的历史低位，创近4年新 高。至于全年成交总值料达2760亿港元，将同比上升18%，为连跌3年后首见反弹，料创近4年以来最 多；此番量值同步上升，反映楼市进一步复苏。按每宗二手私宅平均成交价计算，2025年料为741万港 元，将同比微升约1.5%。 根据土地注册处资料，截至今年12月8日，2025年香港整体私人住宅共录得5.4104万宗买卖登记，涉及 金额约4710.55亿港元。按走势推算，预计全年登记量最终可录得约5.72 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong's real estate market is undergoing a gradual recovery, with various asset sub-sectors benefiting from this trend. The rating for the industry has been upgraded from "in-line" to "outperform" [1] - The report highlights that the preferred stocks are Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) for residential and Link REIT (00823) for commercial properties, with target prices set at HKD 111.7 and HKD 45.7 respectively [1] - Key catalysts for the market recovery include improvements in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers such as demographic trends [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued population inflow in Hong Kong, which will drive housing demand, particularly in the rental market [2] - Rental levels are expected to rise by approximately 3-5% in 2025, with an average annual growth of about 3% in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Residential prices are projected to increase by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027, driven by positive net rental returns and interest rate cuts that enhance purchasing power and stimulate investment demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is a gradual process involving various asset sub-sectors, rather than a singular event [1] - The report identifies Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) and Link REIT (00823) as preferred targets for residential and commercial properties, respectively, with target prices set at HKD 111.7 and HKD 45.7 [1] - The investment strategy prioritizes residential sector recovery, followed by quality retail assets, and then core office spaces, reflecting an upgrade in industry rating from "neutral" to "outperform" [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates that continued population inflow in Hong Kong will drive housing demand, particularly for rentals, with rental levels expected to rise by approximately 3-5% in 2025 and an average growth of about 3% in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Key catalysts for future price increases include positive net rental yields and interest rate cuts, which are expected to enhance purchasing power and stimulate investment demand [2] - Residential prices are projected to increase by 3-5%, 5%, and 5% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 楼市迎复苏新章，价值沐重估春风 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——香港楼市跟踪专题报告 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 年初至今中国香港（以下简称"香港"）楼市回暖趋势延续。1）成交规模稳步回升： 2025 年 1-9 月，香港一手/二手私人住宅成交量分别同比+25%/+19%，成交量分别 创 2020/2022 年以来的同期新高。2）房价出现企稳信号：9 月，香港私人住宅售价 指数同比+1.81%，房价同比结束了连续 43 个月的下跌。同时，中原城市领先指数 在 10 月继续上行，显示量价复苏趋势仍在延续。3）库存去化压力边际改善：截至 2025 年 Q2 末，一手私人住宅已完工未售及在建库存较 2024Q3 末的历史峰值下降 7%，对应 MA12 个月的销售去化周期为 65.3 个月， ...

在历经了多年的调整后，香港楼市如今又重现热闹景象，特别是众多新盘销售情况十分火爆。 "我最近经常待在香港，因为客户变多了，反而房源变少了。"黄城(化名)是深圳罗湖口岸附近一家房产 中介店的资深经理，他经常向深圳客户推荐香港新房，"今年以来香港很多新房项目热销，甚至当天'日 光'，都不用我们去找客户，客户自己都会来咨询，我最近几乎每天的工作时间都是'朝九晚九'。" 记者梳理市场公开信息发现，多个新房项目销售火爆。11月19日，新鸿基地产旗下香港启德天玺天第2 期次轮销售56伙单位即日全数售罄，该项目已经连续两轮销售实现"日光"。据悉，此次销售共获得约 2176张认购登记，超额认购达37倍。近日，香港油塘柏景峰项目将启动首轮销售，推出150个单位。据 了解，项目认购反映热烈，截至17日晚收票量已达可售单位数的18倍以上。 另据中原地产的数据，10月香港一手新房成交突破1700宗，已连续第九个月企稳千宗以上，追平2019年 3月至11月的最长纪录。 黄城表示，一些内地中介机构还专门组建专业团队联动，带客户赴港买房，而且每个月都有成交。"我 接触的客户中，很多香港本地客户开始从租转买，因为租金持续上涨而且银行存款利率 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after a four-year adjustment period, with significant sales activity and a return of foreign buyers [1][2][3] - Recent government policies, including tax reductions and mortgage rate adjustments, have stimulated demand and improved buyer confidence [5][6][7] - The rental market is also showing strong performance, with rising rental yields attracting investors [10][11] Market Performance - In October, over 1,700 new property transactions were recorded, marking the ninth consecutive month of sales exceeding 1,000 units, matching the longest streak since 2019 [1] - High-value transactions have surged, with at least 64 sales exceeding 50 million HKD in October alone, totaling over 6.8 billion HKD [1] - The new property market has seen a total of 15,900 transactions by the end of October, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [3] Buyer Behavior - There is a notable trend of large buyers purchasing entire floors or multiple units, indicating strong demand from professional buyers [2][3] - The influx of mainland buyers is significant, with projections suggesting over 12,000 transactions from this group for the year, setting a new record [3] Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented measures to reduce property transaction taxes, significantly lowering costs for local and mainland buyers [5][7] - Recent policy changes have also included adjustments to mortgage limits and investment immigration policies, further stimulating the market [6] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental yield in Hong Kong has stabilized around 4%, making property investment more attractive compared to traditional savings [10][11] - The rental market is experiencing increased demand due to a rise in non-local students and skilled professionals, pushing rental prices higher [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions predict a continued recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market, with expectations of a sustained upward trend in property prices post-2025 [1][11] - The combination of suppressed demand being released, favorable mortgage conditions, and rising rents is expected to support the market's recovery [11]