Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (1299 HK) [9] Core Insights - The new business value continues to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 21.0% in the first half of 2024, primarily driven by contributions from mainland China and Hong Kong [9] - The company expects to expand into 1-2 new provinces or cities within the year [9] - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% in the first half of 2024 [9] - The company maintains a sustainable shareholder return strategy, with a net free surplus growth of 5.6% in the first half of 2024 [9] Summary by Sections New Business Value - New business value in Hong Kong increased by 26%, with local business and mainland visitor contributions growing by 28% and 24% respectively [9] - In mainland China, new business value grew by 30%, with new market entries increasing by 44% [9] - Singapore's new business value rose by 26.6%, mainly from long-term savings insurance [9] Financial Performance - The company reported a 47% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by improved investment performance [9] - The interim dividend per share increased by 5.2% to HKD 0.445, maintaining a payout ratio of around 50% based on OPAT [9] - The company aims for an annual compound growth rate of 9-11% in OPAT from 2023 to 2026 [9] Market Position - The target price for AIA Group is set at HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 54.3% from the current closing price of HKD 54.45 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for AIA Group with a target price of HKD 74.74, based on a valuation of 1.5x 2024E PEV, which corresponds to a fair value of USD 9.58 [10][38]. Core Insights - AIA Group reported a New Business Value (NBV) of USD 2.46 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% [35]. - The Annualized New Premium (ANP) reached USD 4.55 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 5.6% in Q2 2024 [35]. - The after-tax operating profit was USD 3.39 billion, a 7% increase year-on-year, while net profit surged by 53% to USD 3.31 billion [35]. - The embedded value stood at USD 68.2 billion, reflecting a 3% increase since the beginning of the year, with an operating profit of USD 5.35 billion, up 24% year-on-year [35]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA Group's insurance revenue for 2023 is projected to be USD 17.51 billion, a 7.32% increase from 2022, with net profit expected to reach USD 3.76 billion, marking a 13% growth [37]. - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%-11% in after-tax operating profit per share from 2023 to 2026 [35]. Distribution Channels - The agent channel saw a 19% increase in NBV, accounting for 71% of total NBV, while the partner distribution channel experienced a remarkable 43% growth [36]. - The number of agents increased by 22% year-on-year, with active agents rising by 6% [36]. Regional Performance - Hong Kong remains the largest contributor to AIA's NBV, accounting for 33% of total NBV with a 26% year-on-year increase [40]. - The mainland China market reported a 36% increase in NBV, with a 20% growth in the agent channel [40]. - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth, with NBV increases of 27%, 14%, and 16% respectively [40]. Investment Strategy - AIA Group is shifting its investment strategy by reducing fixed income allocations while increasing equity investments [41]. - The annualized net investment return for the first half of 2024 was 1.8%, remaining stable year-on-year [41].

26 Aug 2024 620,675.6 1,647.8 73.80/46.00 11399.0 股权结构 10.0% 9.0% 绝对 相对 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 来源 ： FactSet 友邦保险集团有限公司(1299 香港) 现金回报总额超过 70 亿美元 泛亚保险公司公布了2024年1月至6月的财务结果，其中纯可比新业务价值（VNB ）增长了25%（以常设汇率计算），达到2455百万美元，超出了我们的预测和彭 博社共识的1.4%/1.4%，主要由VNB边际环比反弹4.5个百分点（以常设汇率计算 ）所驱动。 CMBI est. 在2Q24期间，相较于2Q24的2.1百分点（按持续年增长率 计算）的增加，我们看到了香港和中国大陆地区的持续利润率恢复，分别增加了8. 8百分点/6.4百分点（按持续年增长率计算），达到65.7%/56.6%在上半财年（截 至2Q24：64.3%/54.6%）。这导致了稳定的可变净保费收入（VNB）增长，分别 增长26%/36%（按持续年增长率计算），占总VNB的67%。集团经营利润（OPA T）和每股经营利润（OPAT per share）在上半财年增长了7%/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) with a target price of HKD 77.80, compared to the current price of HKD 54.45 [4][5]. Core Insights - AIA Group reported a new business value (NBV) of USD 2.455 billion for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% at constant exchange rates. The NBV margin improved by 3.3 percentage points to 53.9% [4][5]. - The company's annualized new premiums increased by 17% to USD 4.546 billion, driven by strong performance in key markets such as Hong Kong and mainland China [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantage in agent distribution channels, which supports the sales of complex high-end insurance products, thereby sustaining high NBV margins [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the after-tax operating profit reached USD 3.386 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be USD 0.47, USD 0.54, and USD 0.57 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, revised from previous estimates of USD 0.40, USD 0.44, and USD 0.47 [4][7]. - The intrinsic value equity reached USD 74.234 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from the beginning of the year [4][5]. - The total investment income for H1 2024 was reported at USD 3.391 billion, with a net investment yield of 4.3%, remaining stable year-on-year [4][5]. Market Performance - The report notes that the mainland China market showed impressive growth, with NBV increasing by 36% to USD 0.782 billion, while the NBV margin rose by 6.4 percentage points to 56.6% [4][5]. - In Hong Kong, the NBV grew by 26% to USD 0.858 billion, with a margin increase of 8.8 percentage points to 65.7% [4][5]. - The Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand and Singapore, also demonstrated positive growth, with Thailand's NBV increasing by 16% and Singapore's by 27% [4][5].

Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Strong demand for dividend savings products in Hong Kong, with both new premium and value rate increasing in mainland business [2] - AIA Insurance's 2024H1 NBV increased by 21% YoY to USD 2.46 billion, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 25% [27] - Annualized new premium for 2024H1 was USD 4.55 billion, up 14% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 17% [27] - Post-tax operating profit for 2024H1 was USD 3.39 billion, up 3% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 7% [27] - AIA announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.45 per share, totaling HKD 4.9 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 19% [27] Regional Performance - Mainland China: 2024H1 NBV reached USD 780 million, up 36% YoY, with new annualized premium up 21% and margin increasing by 6.4 percentage points to 56.6% [18] - Hong Kong: Dividend savings flagship products contributed USD 860 million in NBV, up 26% YoY, with local and mainland visitor contributions increasing by 28% and 24% respectively [18] - Singapore: 2024H1 NBV was USD 220 million, up 27% YoY, with "Best Agents" NBV increasing by 31% [18] Financial Metrics - Embedded value (EV) increased by 8% YoY to USD 74.2 billion in 2024H1, driven by NBV growth and operational experience deviations [18] - Agent productivity and new agent numbers increased by 12% and 22% respectively in 2024H1, with "Best Agents" channel NBV up 19% [18] - 2024-2026 NBV growth expectations maintained at +12.4%, +10.8%, and +10.4%, with EV growth expected at +8.8%, +8.5%, and +8.3% [27] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at HKD 31.7 billion, HKD 33.9 billion, and HKD 36.3 billion, with YoY growth of +17.5%, +16.5%, and +11.9% respectively [27] Valuation - Current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PEV of 1.0x, 0.9x, and 0.9x, and PE of 19.0x, 17.7x, and 16.6x [27]

[Table_Page] 中报点评|保险Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 | | & | 海 外 】 友 邦 保 险 | | | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [15][18]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance in 1H24, with a year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and Annualized New Premiums (ANP) of 25% and 17% respectively, despite a high base effect [15]. - The company has set a target for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%-11% for earnings per share (OPAT) from 2023 to 2026 [15][18]. - The investment performance is strong, with total investment and fixed income asset yields at 4.9% and 4.3% respectively, showing a slight year-on-year increase [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 1H24, the company achieved NBV of $24.55 billion and ANP of $45.46 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25% and 17% [15]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders reached $33.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47% [15]. Market Segmentation - In Mainland China, NBV grew by 36% to $7.82 billion, driven by both individual and bancassurance channels [4]. - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 26% to $8.58 billion, with local customers and MCV channels both contributing positively [16]. - Southeast Asia showed robust growth, with NBV in Singapore and Thailand increasing by 31% and 18% respectively [17]. Financial Metrics - The company’s total investment assets are well-matched with liabilities, with 73% of fixed income assets having a duration of over 10 years [5]. - The company’s PEV (Price to Embedded Value) ratio for 2024E is 1.39x, indicating a favorable valuation [18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its regional expansion strategy, focusing on new branch performance as a long-term growth driver [4]. - The ongoing share buyback program, with $3.1 billion remaining, is expected to provide continuous support for the stock price [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in New Business Value (NBV) and sets an operational profit target for the next three years that exceeds expectations [2][4] - The current price of the stock is HKD 51.40, with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.3% (actual rate) / 53% (fixed rate), meeting expectations [11] - The after-tax operating profit grew by 3.5% (actual rate) / 7% (fixed rate) [11] - The embedded value increased by 1.2% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and dividends [11] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for the first half of 2024 grew by 21% (actual rate) / 25% (fixed rate), exceeding expectations [11] - In Q2, the NBV growth rate was 5.6% (actual rate), showing a slowdown compared to Q1, attributed to a high base from the previous year [11] - Regionally, NBV growth in Hong Kong was 26%, driven by local customers and mainland visitors [11] - In mainland China, NBV growth reached 36%, with new branches contributing significantly [11] Operational Targets - Management has set a three-year target for compound growth in operating profit per share of 9%-11% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - This growth is expected to be driven by contributions from new business profitability and effective management of existing business [11] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.445 per share, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a payout ratio of 50.4% [11]

证券研究报告 证券研究报告 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 友邦保险(01299) 股价相对走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 友邦保险 恒生指数 友邦保险发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比增长 25%； 实现税后营运利润 33.86 亿美元，同比增长 7%。公司宣布派发中期股息 0.445 港 元/股，同比增长 5.2%。 ➢ NBV 延续高增，主因量价齐升 2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比+25%（Q1/Q2 分别为+27%/+15%，实际汇 率口径）。公司 NBV 延续高增，主要系：1）新单保费同比实现较好增长。2024H1 公司实现新单保费 45.46 亿美元，同比+17%。2)新业务价值率同比提升。2024H1 公司的新业务价值率为 53.9%，同比+3.3PCT。分渠道来看，对于代理人渠道，2024H1 公司代理人渠道的 NBV 同比+19%，主要得益于活跃代理人数增加及代理人产能提 升。2024H1 公司的活跃代理人数、代理人产能同比分 ...

本公告僅供參考，並不構成任何人士收購、購買或認購證券的邀請或要約。本公告並非亦無意作為在美國發售本公司證券供出 售的要約。本公司證券並無亦不會根據1933年美國證券法（經修訂）（「美國證券法」）登記，且不得未根據美國證券法登記或適 用豁免登記規定而在美國發售或出售。本公司證券並無亦無計劃在美國公開發售。 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六個月的中期業績 新業務價值上升25%，創歷史新高 每股稅後營運溢利及每股產生的基本自由盈餘均增加10%；每股稅後營運溢利增長目標 向股東返還34億美元；每股中期股息上升5.2% • 新業務價值上升25%至24.55億美元，創歷史新高 內涵價值 • 上半年的營運及投資差異皆為正面差異 • 稅後營運溢利為33.86億美元，每股增加10% 產生的自由盈餘 • 按備考基準計算的股東資本比率(4)為242% • 於4月宣佈在股份回購計劃中增添20億美元，使總額增至120億美元 「友邦保險在2024年上半年締造卓越業績。我們的新業務價值創新高、盈利顯著增長、產生的自由盈餘強 勁，並向股東返還可觀的資本。我們同時亦公佈每股稅後營運溢利自2023年至2026年的複合年均增長率目 標為9 ...