很多人都在关注周末有没有好消息提振市场，央行倒是出来说了几句，说会根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。另外还说了会 利用互换便利和回购再贷款等工具，维护资本市场稳定。要实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大货币财政协同配合。 除了画饼ing的降准降息，没有新东西，都是之前听过的，并且没有具体数字。以a股目前的市场情绪，我不认为会对这些话买账。 要说周一有啥好消息，大概就是过去三个交易日跌的够狠，在技术上已然形成一定程度的乖离和超卖，所以周一有日内技术性反弹的需求，可以尝试套用 暴跌次日公式。公式内容我昨晚有解释，这里就不复述了。 具体应用就是假如明天盘中再出现恐慌性的快速急跌，会是一个分时线上的低点，做t也好，短线抄底也好，都有操作空间。需要注意的是这类日内反弹 的窗口期很短，随着五日线快速下压，周二周三就未必安全。 明天周一，又是交易日了。大部分的股民现在一想到a股开盘心里就会觉得压抑，开年两个交易日连续暴击，血流成河的个股表现，尤其是周五区区1.27 万亿的成交量却砸出了-4%的中位数，这一切都让股民觉得心目中期许的牛市正在渐行渐远。 3、周五的离岸人民币汇率已经跌至7.35，在岸人民币也报价7 ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group Limited has appointed Zhang Xiaoyu as the Regional Chief Executive Officer, effective upon receiving all necessary regulatory approvals, overseeing operations in mainland China, South Korea, and Vietnam [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Xiaoyu will become a member of the Group Executive Committee and report to the Group CEO and President, Lee Yuanxiang [1] - Zhang holds a master's degree in applied mathematics from Fudan University and is a certified actuary in North America [1] Group 2: Business Expansion - Under Zhang's leadership, AIA China successfully completed the "split reform" and established AIA Life Insurance, the first wholly foreign-owned life insurance company in mainland China [1] - AIA Life has expanded its operations to 10 provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Jiangsu, with recent approvals for new provincial branches in Anhui, Shandong, and Chongqing [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Outperform the Market" [6][8][11] Core Views - The report highlights a strong performance in the third quarter, with a 22% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) to $3.62 billion, and a 16% increase in the third quarter alone to $1.16 billion [6][7] - The NBV margin improved to 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [6][7] - The annualized new premium (ANP) for the first three quarters reached $6.76 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report indicates that all segments achieved positive growth, with the agent channel's NBV increasing by 15% year-on-year in Q3, and the partner channel's NBV rising by 16% [7] - AIA China reported a 9% increase in Q3 NBV, with both agent and bancassurance channels showing positive growth [7] - AIA Hong Kong's Q3 NBV grew by 24%, driven by a 28% increase from local customers and a 20% increase from mainland visitors [7] Business Expansion - AIA China has received approval to establish new branches in Anhui and Shandong, which is expected to support future performance [4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in AIA China, particularly through the "best agents" strategy [4][8] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to 1.2x the estimated 2024 Price to Embedded Value (PEV), suggesting a low valuation with high margin of safety [8][11] - The report estimates a fair value range for the company between HKD 75.45 and HKD 88.35, based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [8][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - AIA Group Limited achieved a new business value of USD 3.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% (fixed exchange rate) [1] - The annualized new premium reached USD 6.76 billion, up 14.1% year-on-year, with all segments showing positive growth in new business value in Q3 [1][2] - The company continues to expand its market presence in mainland China, with new business value growth of 9% in Q3, driven by an increase in active agents and productivity [1][2] Summary by Sections New Business Performance - New business value for the first three quarters of 2024 was USD 3.62 billion, up 22% year-on-year (fixed exchange rate) [1] - Q3 new business value increased by 16.8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin of 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points [1][2] - Annualized new premiums for Q3 were USD 6.76 billion, reflecting a 14.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Segmentation - In mainland China, new business value grew by 9% in Q3, with both agency and bancassurance channels contributing to growth [1] - In Hong Kong, new business value increased by 24% in Q3, supported by local and MCV business growth [1] - ASEAN markets saw an 8% increase in new business value, with double-digit growth recorded in Singapore and Malaysia [1] Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at USD 4.8 billion, USD 5.6 billion, and USD 6.3 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PEV of 1.27, 1.19, and 1.11 for 2024-2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.6% (actual exchange rate) / 22% (fixed exchange rate), meeting expectations. The growth was driven by improvements in both new business and value rates, with core channels maintaining good performance [2][7]. - The diversified product strategy is expected to enhance value growth momentum, addressing customer needs and regulatory guidance, which is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with interest spreads and improve profitability [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022A to 2026E, the company’s revenue is projected to grow from USD 19,110 million in 2022 to USD 22,470 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from USD 282 million in 2022 to USD 6,147 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 25.3% in 2024E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 328.94 in 2022 to 12.12 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [6]. Business Performance - The core regions of the business showed resilience, with NBV growth in mainland China at 9% and Hong Kong at 24%. The growth in Hong Kong was supported by local customers and mainland visitors, with agent and bancassurance channels performing well [7]. - The annualized new premium for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.1% (actual exchange rate) / 16% (fixed exchange rate), driven by both agent and partner distribution channels [7].

友邦保险：耗资约6248万港元回购101.38万股 财联社10月23日电，友邦保险(01299.HK)在港交所发布公 告称，当日回购101.38万股普通股，每股回购价格在62.2至61.15港元之间，总回购金额约为6248万港 元。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On October 17, 48 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 27.06 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 189 million [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - AIA Group repurchased 984,800 shares for HKD 62.18 million, with a highest price of HKD 64.45 and a lowest price of HKD 62.10, accumulating HKD 24.732 billion in buybacks this year [1][2]. - Kuaishou-W repurchased 713,700 shares for HKD 32.19 million, with a highest price of HKD 45.55 and a lowest price of HKD 44.75, totaling HKD 4.114 billion in buybacks year-to-date [1][2]. - Swire Pacific A repurchased 382,000 shares for HKD 24.53 million, with a highest price of HKD 65.45 and a lowest price of HKD 63.20, accumulating HKD 2.676 billion in buybacks this year [1][2]. Group 2: Notable Buyback Activities - The largest buyback amount on October 17 was by AIA Group at HKD 62.18 million, followed by Kuaishou-W at HKD 32.19 million [1][2]. - The highest number of shares repurchased on October 17 was by Youzan, with a buyback of 7 million shares, followed by Shenglong Jinxiu International and Andong Oilfield Services with 2 million and 1.74 million shares, respectively [1][2]. - Baiguoyuan Group conducted its first buyback of the year on this date [1].

Group 1 - AIA Group announced the execution results of its share buyback plan [1] - On October 17, the company successfully repurchased 984,800 shares [1] - The total amount spent on the buyback was HKD 63.1821 million, with an average repurchase price of HKD 63.14 per share [1] Group 2 - During the buyback process, the highest transaction price was HKD 64.45, while the lowest was HKD 62.10 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" with an expected growth of over 20% in stock price over the next six months [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth in new business value (NBV) for AIA Group, achieving a record high of USD 2.455 billion in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% [1][2]. - The growth in NBV is primarily driven by annualized new premiums, which increased by 17% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, and an increase in NBV margin by 3.3 percentage points to 53.9% [1]. - AIA Group's performance is particularly strong in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets, with NBV growth rates of 36% and 26% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Region - **Group Performance**: AIA Group achieved an NBV of USD 2.455 billion in H1 2024, with a strong growth of 25% year-on-year. The NBV margin increased to 53.9% [1]. - **Mainland China**: The NBV reached USD 782 million, up 36% year-on-year, with new market expansions contributing significantly to this growth. The NBV margin improved to 56.6% [1]. - **Hong Kong**: The NBV grew by 26% to USD 858 million, driven by double-digit growth from local customers and mainland visitors, as well as the introduction of new products [1][2]. - **Singapore**: The NBV increased by 27% to USD 219 million, with strong performance across all distribution channels [1][2]. - **Other Markets**: Thailand and Malaysia also saw double-digit growth in NBV, while performance in India, Indonesia, New Zealand, and Vietnam was weaker [2].

New Business Value and Premiums - New business value increased by 25% to $2.455 billion, reaching a historical high[3] - Annualized new premiums rose by 17% to $4.546 billion[3] - New business value margin improved by 3.3 percentage points to 53.9%[3] - New business value increased by 25% year-on-year to $2.455 billion, with a new business value margin of 53.9%[10] - Annualized new premiums grew by 17% to $4.546 billion, with a new business value margin increase of 3.3 percentage points[10] - AIA's new business value increased by 25% to a record $2.455 billion, with 11 markets achieving double-digit growth[18] - AIA's new business value margin rose by 3.3 percentage points to 53.9%[18] - Annualized new premiums increased by 17% to $4.546 billion in the first half of 2024, contributing to over $30 billion in renewal premiums for 2023[18] - AIA's new business value grew by 25% to $2.455 billion, with 11 markets achieving double-digit growth, including its five largest markets[26] - The annualized new premium increased by 17%, and the new business value margin rose by 3.3 percentage points to 53.9%[26] - AIA Group's new business value increased by 25% to $2.455 billion, with 11 markets achieving double-digit growth, including its five largest businesses[31] - New business value increased by 19% to $1.86 billion, with a new business value margin of 67.2%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year[107] - Annualized new premiums grew by 11% to $2.77 billion, driven by increased agent activity and higher productivity[108] - Partner distribution channel saw a 43% increase in new business value to $742 million, with a new business value margin of 41.7%, up 4.2 percentage points[109] - Bank insurance channel achieved a 61% growth in new business value, with the new business value margin exceeding 40%, supported by increased active sales agents[110] - China market new business value surged by 36% to $782 million, with a new business value margin of 56.6%, up 6.4 percentage points[111] - New business value margin increased by 6.4 percentage points to 56.6%, with agency distribution margin rising to 61.3% and bancassurance margin to 41.3%[112] - AIA Hong Kong's new business value grew by 26%, with local customer new business value up 28% and mainland visitor new business value up 24%[114] - AIA Thailand's new business value increased by 16%, driven by strong annualized new premium growth in agency and partner distribution channels[116] - AIA Singapore's new business value grew by 27%, with annualized new premiums up 57%[118] - AIA's "Premier Agency" in Hong Kong contributed to 20% new business value growth, accounting for two-thirds of total new business value[115] - AIA Thailand's "Premier Agency" recorded 18% new business value growth, with new agent recruits up 20%[117] - AIA Singapore's traditional protection products accounted for 45% of new business value in the first half of 2024[118] - AIA Malaysia recorded a 14% growth in new business value in H1 2024, with a new business value margin of 64.2% and 90% of unit-linked product sales including protection coverage[120] - AIA Malaysia's "Premier Agency" achieved a 7% growth in new business value in H1 2024, driven by investments in technology, digital tools, and analytics[121] - AIA Malaysia's bancassurance partnership with Public Bank Berhad achieved an 18% growth in new business value, supported by a compelling high-net-worth client proposition[121] - Other markets (excluding Malaysia and Singapore) saw a 9% growth in new business value in H1 2024, with double-digit growth in Australia, Myanmar, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan[122][123] - AIA Australia achieved strong double-digit growth in new business value in H1 2024, driven by successful renewals and new member additions in group insurance[124] - AIA India's new business value declined in H1 2024 due to a one-time surge in life insurance sales before tax benefit restrictions, but rebounded in Q2 2024 with strong performance from the "Premier Agency"[124] - AIA Philippines achieved exceptional new business value growth in H1 2024, supported by a strong performance from the joint venture with Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI)[124] - AIA South Korea recorded exceptional new business value growth in H1 2024, driven by strong bancassurance performance and a rebound in direct sales[124] Embedded Value and Operating Profit - Embedded value operating profit reached $5.350 billion, with a per-share increase of 29%[4] - Post-tax operating profit was $3.386 billion, with a per-share increase of 10%[5] - Embedded value operating profit rose by 24% to $5.350 billion, with an embedded value operating return of 16.5%[10] - AIA's operating profit based on embedded value was $5.350 billion, with a 29% increase per share[19] - AIA's post-tax operating profit for the first half of 2024 was $3.386 billion, with a 10% increase per share[20] - AIA's embedded value operating profit reached $5.35 billion, with a per-share growth of 29%, equivalent to a 16.5% annualized embedded value operating return, up 360 basis points from 2023[26] - AIA's post-tax operating profit grew by 10% per share, driven by the compounding effect of large-scale profitable new business[27] - AIA's embedded value equity increased by 8% to $74.234 billion, driven by $5.35 billion in embedded value operating profit, which grew by 29% per share[33] - AIA's investment performance exceeded assumptions, contributing $497 million to embedded value equity, while foreign exchange translation reduced it by $1.653 billion[33] - AIA's embedded value operating return increased by 360 basis points to 16.5% on an annualized basis, reflecting strong new business value growth and positive operating experience variances[33] - AIA's cumulative operating experience variances and assumption changes since its IPO in 2010 have added $4.3 billion to embedded value equity, highlighting its focus on underwriting quality business[33] - Embedded value operating profit rose by 24% to $5.350 billion, with basic embedded value operating profit per share increasing by 29% to 47.68 cents[36] - Post-tax operating profit grew by 7% to $3.386 billion, with basic post-tax operating profit per share up by 10% to 30.18 cents[40] - Contractual service margin release increased by 10% to $2.782 billion, contributing to the strong growth in post-tax operating profit[40] - Investment performance net of expenses remained stable at $1.637 billion, despite a decrease in investment income due to share buybacks and divestments[39] - Shareholder allocated equity operating return on an annualized basis increased by 180 basis points to 15.3%[39] - The company's operating margin remained strong at 16.1%, reflecting high-quality earnings[39] - Post-tax operating profit in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Malaysia saw double-digit growth, while China grew by 4% and Singapore by 2%[45][46] - Total post-tax operating profit increased by 7% on a constant exchange rate basis to $3.386 billion, with Hong Kong contributing $1.223 billion, up 15% year-on-year[46] - Pre-tax operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $3.961 million, compared to $3.877 million in the same period in 2023[181] - Tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $(560) million, compared to $(598) million in the same period in 2023[181] Free Surplus and Capital Management - Generated basic free surplus amounted to $3.391 billion, with a per-share increase of 10%[6] - Net free surplus generated after reinvestment in new business was $2.243 billion[6] - Shareholder capital ratio on a pro forma basis was 242%[6] - Basic free surplus generated grew by 6% to $3.391 billion[10] - AIA's free surplus generated was $3.391 billion, with a 10% increase per share[21] - AIA's generated free surplus increased by 10% per share to $3.391 billion, driven by the addition of another batch of profitable new business and positive operational variances[29] - Free surplus increased to $17.94 billion as of June 2024, up from $16.33 billion as of December 2023, before dividends and share buybacks[71] - Basic free surplus generated was $3.39 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 10% increase per share[75] - Free surplus generated in H1 2024 increased to $2.243 billion, up from $1.52 billion in H1 2023[76] - Investment in new business increased by 11% to $788 million, driving a $3.243 billion increase in future distributable earnings[76] - Basic free surplus per share grew 10% to 30.22 cents, with diluted free surplus per share also increasing 10% to 30.20 cents[77] - The company implemented a new capital management policy targeting a 75% payout ratio of annual free surplus through dividends and share buybacks[78] - Shareholder capital ratio stood at 262% as of June 30, 2024, down from 269% at end-2023, primarily due to capital returns to shareholders[80] - Group local capital summation method coverage ratio decreased to 262% in H1 2024 from 275% at end-2023, mainly due to capital returns[83] - Eligible group capital resources increased to $74.654 billion in H1 2024 from $73.156 billion at end-2023, driven by effective business capital generation[83] - Group prescribed capital requirement rose to $28.517 billion in H1 2024 from $26.646 billion at end-2023, mainly due to new business underwriting[84] - Tier 1 group capital decreased to $46.711 billion in H1 2024 from $46.980 billion at end-2023, primarily due to capital returns to shareholders[84] - Shareholder-based group local capital summation method coverage ratio decreased to 329% in H1 2024 from 335% at end-2023, reflecting capital returns[86] - Group local capital summation method coverage ratio increased to 262% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 275% as of December 31, 2023[87] - Eligible group capital resources amounted to $74.654 billion as of June 30, 2024, up from $73.156 billion as of December 31, 2023[87] - Group prescribed capital requirement stood at $28.517 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to $26.646 billion as of December 31, 2023[87] - Group local capital summation method surplus was $46.137 billion as of June 30, 2024, slightly down from $46.510 billion as of December 31, 2023[87] - Subordinated securities and senior notes included in eligible group capital resources totaled $5.115 billion and $5.158 billion, respectively[89] - A 50 basis points increase in interest rates would decrease the group local capital summation method coverage ratio by 10 percentage points[91] - Shareholder capital was $40.140 billion as of June 30, 2024, with a coverage ratio of 262%[92] - Holding company financial resources increased to $9.890 billion, excluding dividends and share buybacks[97] - Capital flows from subsidiaries in the first half of 2024 were $1.469 billion, down from $1.703 billion in the same period of 2023[97] - Holding company financial resources stood at $6.512 billion as of June 30, 2024, after returning capital to shareholders[97] - The company's initial holding company financial resources were $8.14 billion, with net cash flow from subsidiaries of $1.469 billion and corporate activities (including acquisitions) of $(53) million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[98] - The company's net cash flow from holding company activities was $1.416 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024[98] - The company's final holding company financial resources before dividends and share repurchases were $9.89 billion, with dividends of $(1.705) billion and share repurchases of $(1.673) billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024[98] - The company's final holding company financial resources were $6.512 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024[98] - The company's loans to subsidiaries/receivables from subsidiaries were $973 million as of June 30, 2024, with $144 million recoverable within 12 months[99] - The company's medium-term notes and securities issued to the market were $11.867 billion as of June 30, 2024, with $750 million repayable within 12 months[99] - The company issued $1 billion of 10-year fixed-rate subordinated securities with an annual interest rate of 5.375% under its global medium-term notes and securities program on April 5, 2024[100] - The company increased its interim dividend by 5.2% to HK$0.445 per share[102] - The company increased its share repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $12 billion, with $8.88 billion worth of shares repurchased and canceled as of June 30, 2024[103] - The company's credit ratings from Fitch, S&P, and Moody's remained unchanged at AA (very strong), AA- (very strong), and Aa2 (very low credit risk) respectively as of June 30, 2024[101] Shareholder Returns and Dividends - Returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the first half of the year[7] - Interim dividend increased by 5.2% to HK$0.445 per share[7] - AIA Group returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the first six months of 2024[15] - AIA Group announced a new capital management policy in April 2024, aiming to distribute 75% of annual net free surplus generated through dividends and share buybacks[15] - AIA Group's board approved an additional $2 billion share buyback in April 2024, increasing the total buyback program to $12 billion[15] - AIA Group's interim dividend increased by 5.2% to HK$0.445 per share[15] - AIA returned $3.378 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the first half of 2024, with an annualized shareholder distribution equity operating return of 15.3%, up 180 basis points[25][28] - AIA's board approved an additional $2 billion to its existing $10 billion share buyback program, bringing the total to $12 billion, with $3.1 billion remaining for buybacks as of June 30, 2024[29] - AIA's interim dividend increased by 5.2% to HK$0.445 per share, reflecting its prudent, sustainable, and progressive dividend policy[29] - AIA's solvency position remained very strong, with a declared interim dividend increase of 5.2% per share[25] - AIA's target compound annual growth rate for post-tax operating profit per share from 2023 to 2026 is 9% to 11%[25] - The company repurchased a total of 219,933,600 shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the six months ended June 30, 2024, with a total consideration (before expenses) of approximately HKD 13.054 billion (equivalent to approximately USD 1.67 billion)[140] - The average price per share for the repurchases was HKD 59.35, with the highest price at HKD 68.10 and the lowest at HKD 45.30[141] - The company also purchased 4,178,569 shares under the 2020 Restricted Share Unit Plan and the 2020 Employee Share Purchase Plan, with a total consideration of approximately HKD 257 million (equivalent to approximately USD 33 million)[142] - The total number of issued shares as of June 30, 2024, was 11,200,409,115[140] - The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation held 326,741,568 shares in physical settlement of non-listed derivative instruments[136] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. held 14,237,480 shares in physical settlement of non-listed derivative instruments and 6,300,667 shares in cash settlement of non-listed derivative instruments[136] - Citigroup Inc. held 7,801,672 shares in physical settlement of non-listed derivative instruments and 22,370,996 shares in cash settlement of non-listed derivative instruments[136] - The Capital Group Companies, Inc. held 24,767,952 shares in physical settlement of non-listed derivative instruments[136] - BlackRock, Inc. held 3,900,000 shares in cash settlement of non-listed derivative instruments and 798,200 shares in cash settlement of non-listed derivative instruments[136] - The company plans to initiate an audit tender for the 2026 fiscal year, with the current auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, continuing to audit the 2024 fiscal year consolidated financial statements[143] - The company granted 16,593,246 restricted share units (RSUs) under the 2020 RSU plan to employees, directors, and executives during the six months ended June 30, 2024[145] - 315,561 RSUs vested under the 2010 RSU plan and 3,364,059 RSUs vested under the 2020 RSU plan during the same period, settled by purchasing existing shares in the market[145]