资料来源：S&P 友邦保险在 2023 年取得了强劲增长，并推高了 2024 年的增长基数。即便 如此，我们仍认为友邦保险在 2024 年将取得有韧性的增长。我们预计友邦 保险 1H24 的新业务价值（NBV）在实际汇率下（AER）同比增长 22%， 考虑到上年同期增长强劲（AER yoy：32%），我们认为这一增长水平具有 韧性。上半年报告货币美元对大部分货币升值，因此在不变汇率（CER）下 的同比增速可能会更高。我们预计营运利润（OPAT）同比增长 2%（AER）， 如果考虑到公司回购减少股份的影响，我们预计每股 OPAT 在 1H24 同比增 长 6%，这将是该指标在 2022 年下半年之后的首次显著反弹。考虑到投资 波 动 ， 我 们 下 调 2024-2026 EPS 至 USD0.41/0.54/0.61 （ 前 值 ： 0.44/0.60/0.70）。维持 HKD90 目标价和"买入"评级。 提升资本回报 1 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 基本数据 | | | 目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for AIA Group [25][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) of 31%, reaching USD 1.33 billion, alongside a new USD 2 billion share buyback plan, increasing the total to USD 12 billion [10][25]. - AIA's NBV margin improved to 54.2%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10][11]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand for savings products, particularly in the Chinese market, with a focus on the growth of its agency and bancassurance channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's insurance revenue for 2023 is projected at USD 17.514 billion, with a net profit of USD 3.764 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [13][40]. - The annualized new premium (ANP) is expected to reach USD 24.5 billion, marking a 26% increase [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 1.29x for 2024, suggesting that the current valuation is low with a high margin of safety [12][16]. - AIA is projected to have a reasonable value range of HKD 82.97 to HKD 86.71 based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [12][29]. Growth Drivers - The report notes that AIA's new agent recruitment and active agent numbers have both increased by over 20%, indicating strong growth in its distribution channels [11]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the Chinese market and across ASEAN regions, driven by the development of new branches and strong sales performance [12][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (01299) with a target price of HKD 80.0 [24] Core Views - AIA Group's NBV (New Business Value) for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.327 billion, a 31% YoY growth at constant exchange rates [3][7] - The company announced an additional USD 2 billion to its existing USD 10 billion share buyback program, to be completed within 12 months, exceeding market expectations [3][17] - AIA China and Hong Kong were the primary contributors to NBV growth, with YoY increases of 38% and 43%, respectively [7] - The company's optimized capital management policy includes a target dividend payout ratio of 75% of free surplus net amount, reflecting strong governance and confidence in future growth [17] Financial Performance - Annualized new premiums for Q1 2024 were USD 2.449 billion, up 26% YoY, with a new business value margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [7] - The agent channel contributed a 20% YoY increase in NBV, while the partner distribution channel saw a 70% YoY increase due to improved channel value rates [7] - AIA's total assets are projected to grow from USD 270.471 billion in 2022 to USD 350.804 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from USD 3.365 billion in 2022 to USD 5.430 billion in 2026 [10][15] Regional Performance - Mainland China's NBV growth outperformed domestic peers, driven by the "Best Agents" model, with new agent numbers and active new agent numbers both growing over 20% YoY [7] - Hong Kong's NBV growth was fueled by increased contributions from mainland tourists following the reopening of borders [7] - All other regions also achieved double-digit NBV growth, supported by the company's superior channel strategy and high-value products [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to USD 4.316 billion in 2024, USD 4.965 billion in 2025, and USD 5.405 billion in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9%, respectively [23] - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to increase from USD 68.865 billion in 2022 to USD 72.277 billion in 2026, with EV per share (EVPS) rising from USD 4.86 in 2022 to USD 5.10 in 2026 [18] Capital Management - AIA's optimized capital management policy includes a commitment to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, starting from 2024 [17] - The company plans to review its capital position regularly and return any excess capital beyond operational needs [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 90 HKD [14][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in new business value (NBV) of 1.327 billion USD in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%. The NBV margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [14][20]. - The company announced an increase of 2 billion USD to its existing 10 billion USD share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [14][20]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with agent channels growing NBV by 20% and partner distribution channels increasing by 70% [14][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a new business value of 1.327 billion USD, up 31% year-on-year, with an annualized new premium growth of 26% to 2.449 billion USD [14][20]. - The NBV margin for AIA China rose from 52.7% in H2 2023 to 54.6% in Q1 2024, while AIA Hong Kong saw an increase from 58.1% to 64.3% [14][20]. - Key Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand and Malaysia, also reported double-digit growth in NBV, with Thailand maintaining a NBV margin exceeding 90% [14][20]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return 75% of its annual free surplus as dividends and share buybacks starting in 2024, with a reference free surplus of 3.9 billion USD for 2023 [14][20]. - As of April 25, 2024, the company had repurchased shares worth approximately 8.169 billion USD, accounting for 68.1% of the total buyback amount [14][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.40, 0.44, and 0.47 USD, respectively, while maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.7x [14][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 57.3 [1][21]. Core Insights - The new business value reached a quarterly high of USD 1.33 billion in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% (fixed exchange rate) and 26.9% (actual exchange rate) [3][17]. - The annualized new premium was USD 2.45 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, while total weighted premium income was USD 11.22 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3][17]. - The company has optimized its capital management policy, targeting a payout ratio of 75% of the annual free surplus net income, with an additional USD 2 billion added to the share buyback plan, bringing the total to USD 12 billion [6][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The report shows relative performance of 1.8% over 1 month, -22.0% over 3 months, and -20.4% over 1 year, with absolute performance of 9.0%, -11.6%, and -31.1% respectively [1]. Market Data - The total share capital is 1.1238 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of HKD 643.936 billion. The stock price has ranged from HKD 45.25 to HKD 86.8 over the past year [4]. New Business Value - The new business value in the Hong Kong market grew by 43% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by strong local and MCV business performance [3][5]. - The company achieved double-digit growth in new business value across all reported segments, indicating robust recovery momentum post-pandemic [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to generate net profits of USD 4.839 billion, USD 5.571 billion, and USD 6.277 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.6%, 15.1%, and 12.7% [10][22]. - The projected PEV for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.19, 1.12, and 1.04 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [22]. Capital Management - The company plans to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a total expected return of USD 2.9 billion based on the 2023 free surplus net income [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong recovery in its performance, with a notable increase in New Business Value (NBV) and a new $2 billion share buyback plan that exceeded expectations [2]. - The company aims to return 75% of its annual free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a consistent dividend policy with annual growth [2]. - The NBV for Q1 2024 reached $13.27 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%, while the Annualized New Premium (ANP) was $24.49 billion, up 26% year-over-year [2]. - The NBV Margin (NBVM) increased by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2%, marking the first year-over-year growth since 2022, alleviating concerns about product structure changes [2]. - The company’s diverse distribution channels showed robust growth, with NBV from agents and partners increasing by 20% and 70% year-over-year, respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved an insurance revenue of $17.514 billion in 2023, with projected growth to $18.969 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year increase [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from $3.764 billion in 2023 to $6.144 billion in 2024, representing a 63.2% increase [9]. - The Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from $0.27 in 2023 to $0.43 in 2024 [9]. - The company’s investment performance is expected to improve, with net investment income projected to rise from $12.566 billion in 2023 to $14.769 billion in 2024 [9].

Summary of AIA Group Q1 2024 Update Company Overview - The conference call is hosted by AIA Group, a leading insurance and financial services company based in Hong Kong [1] Key Points Discussed - The session is led by Lance Burbage, Chief Investor Relations Officer, along with Group CEO Li Yuanxiang and Group CFO Garth Jones [1] Additional Important Information - Other members of the Group Executive Committee are present either in person or remotely, indicating a collaborative approach to the Q&A session [1]

Summary of AIA Group Q1 2024 Update Company Overview - The conference call is hosted by AIA Group, a leading insurance and financial services company based in Hong Kong [1] Key Points Discussed - The session is led by Lance Burbage, Chief Investor Relations Officer, along with Group CEO Li Yuanxiang and Group CFO Garth Jones [1] Additional Important Information - Other members of the Group Executive Committee are present either in person or remotely, indicating a collaborative approach to the Q&A session [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 54.00 HKD and a target value of 76.6 HKD per share [16]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong growth in new business value (NBV) for the first quarter, reaching 1.33 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The annualized new premium was 2.45 billion USD, up 23% year-on-year. This growth was driven by both volume and price increases, alongside strong growth in partner distribution channels [14]. - All operational segments of the company achieved double-digit growth in NBV, benefiting from increased activity in individual insurance channels and strong savings demand in bank insurance channels. The NBV margin (NBVM) improved by 1.9 percentage points to 52.4% [14]. - The company optimized its capital management policy, increasing its share buyback program to 2 billion USD, reflecting confidence in its financial position [14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 0.62, 0.68, and 0.84 USD, respectively, with an estimated enterprise value (EV) multiple of 1.6x for 2024 [14]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 5,466 million USD, with a projected decline to 5,091 million USD in 2023, followed by a recovery to 5,343 million USD in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow significantly from 3,331 million USD in 2022 to 8,856 million USD in 2024 [15]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's return on equity (ROE), projected to rise from 0.63% in 2022 to 17.64% by 2026 [15].

Financial Performance - AIA Group reported total assets of $286 billion as of December 31, 2023[15]. - The company achieved insurance payouts and claims of $21 billion in 2023, an increase of $2 billion compared to 2022[16]. - AIA reported a total weighted premium income of US$340 million in 2023, reflecting a growth compared to US$262 million in 2022[53]. - The annualized new premiums reached US$71.2 billion in 2023, showing a slight decrease from US$71.2 billion in 2022[36]. - New business value increased by 33% to $4.034 billion, with double-digit growth in 10 markets and all distribution channels[62]. - The operating profit attributable to underlying value per share rose by 37%, driven by the growth in new business value, resulting in an operating return on embedded value increase of 350 basis points to 12.9%[111]. - The embedded value operating profit increased by 33% to $8.890 billion, reflecting significant growth in new business value and higher expected returns due to rising interest rates[157]. - The basic free surplus generated was $6.041 billion, with a per share increase of 5%, driven by higher interest rates, partially offset by medical claims experience[160]. - The contract service margin rose to $53.115 billion, with a basic contract service margin growth rate of 8.4%, driven by the continued achievement of large-scale and high-quality new business[158]. - AIA recorded a strong financial performance in 2023, with new business value increasing by 33% to $4.034 billion, supported by double-digit growth in 10 markets[154]. - The local capital adequacy ratio reported at 275% as of December 31, 2023, indicating strong financial health[184]. Shareholder Returns - AIA has returned US$7.2 billion to shareholders through an ongoing share buyback program, part of a total plan of up to US$10 billion[42]. - The group returned USD 5.9 billion to shareholders through increased dividends and ongoing share buyback programs, with free surplus before capital return increasing by 25%[103]. - The board proposed a final dividend of HK$1.1907 per share, a 5% increase, resulting in a total dividend of HK$1.6136 per share for 2023[64]. - The total dividend for 2023 reached HKD 1.6136 per share, a 5% increase from 2022[140]. - The share buyback program repurchased approximately 740 million shares for a total value of $7.207 billion, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 6% since the program's launch in March 2022[161]. - The company plans to return excess capital of $3.637 billion to shareholders through a share buyback program, in addition to a dividend of $2.293 billion[138]. Market Expansion and Operations - AIA Group's business covers 18 markets, with a focus on Asia, and serves over 42 million individual policyholders and more than 18 million group insurance plan participants[16]. - The company opened a new branch in Henan, upgraded its Shijiazhuang center to a branch, and is preparing to expand into Hubei and Sichuan provinces[19]. - AIA's joint venture Tata AIA Life is the third-largest private life insurance company in India and the leading retail protection provider[20]. - The company operates in 12 markets and has expanded its community initiatives across 18 markets in 2023[29][49]. - New business value in mainland China grew by 28% from February to December 2023, with total new business value for the year increasing by 20% to USD 1.037 billion[107]. - AIA's new business value in Singapore increased by 10% to USD 0.394 billion, supported by strong performance from agency and partner distribution channels[109]. - The investment in China Post Life Insurance, representing a 24.99% stake, provided additional growth opportunities and a complementary customer base[108]. - The company is expanding its operations into new major cities in Hubei and Sichuan provinces in China[133]. Technology and Digital Transformation - The company has been recognized as the "Digital Insurer of the Year" for three consecutive years by InsuranceAsia News[5]. - AIA's cloud technology adoption rate reached 90%, significantly higher than the global financial services and insurance industry average[44]. - AIA's digital transformation led to over 20 million existing and potential registered customers using its app, with over 85% of customer transactions completed digitally[115]. - The end-to-end processing ratio improved from 35% in June 2020 to 85% by December 2023[142]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - AIA Group has become the first life and health insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region to have its short-term reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative[24]. - The company launched a climate transition plan aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, integrating climate factors into its core business[46]. - The company received recognition for its leadership in ESG, being awarded top industry and regional badges for three consecutive years[68]. - AIA's commitment to sustainability was highlighted by becoming the first life and health insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region to have its near-term reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi)[170]. Employee Engagement and Corporate Culture - AIA has been recognized with the "Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award" for the second consecutive year, highlighting high employee engagement[44]. - The company remains confident in growth opportunities, focusing on achieving substantial profitability in new business growth while maintaining financial discipline[185]. Product and Service Development - The company launched the "AIA Junyu Wealth Management Center" and "AIA Junyu Health Garden" in Hong Kong, offering integrated health and wealth management services[19]. - AIA's comprehensive ecosystem combines various new products and services to meet a broader range of financial and health protection needs for customers[116]. - Approximately 60% of new customers opted to include "AIA Vitality" in their policies when given the choice[49]. - AIA's distribution platform, supported by the "Best Agents" strategy, accounted for 76% of the total new business value, growing by 23%[167]. Market Performance - New business value in Hong Kong increased by 82% to $1.43 billion, contributing significantly to the group's new business performance[132]. - The new business value in China grew by 55%, with the company now operating 10 branches in the mainland[133]. - In Thailand, new business value rose by 21% to $713 million, with the company holding a 41% market share[134]. - The overall new business value in other markets remained flat at $406 million, but excluding Vietnam, it increased by 15%[137]. - New business value from partner distribution channels surged by 58%, with bank insurance channels achieving a 42% increase[143].