Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of non-performing loan (NPL) ratios in personal loans across major banks, attributing this to macroeconomic changes and the ongoing adjustment in the real estate sector, while emphasizing the importance of risk management in consumer and business loans [3][10]. Group 1: Personal Loan Quality Trends - As of March 27, 2026, major banks like ICBC, CCB, and others have reported an increase in personal loan NPL ratios, with many attributing this to external macroeconomic factors [3][10]. - The personal loan NPL ratio for state-owned banks has approached 1.6%, with ICBC and CCB both reporting NPL ratios of 1.58%, marking an increase from the previous year [10][11]. - The shift in consumer demand due to the real estate market's downturn has led to a contraction in housing loans, while consumer and business loans have become focal points for banks [6][10]. Group 2: Loan Composition and Performance - By the end of 2025, CCB and ICBC's personal loan balances exceeded 9 trillion yuan, with CCB leading in housing, consumer, and credit card loans, while ICBC led in business loans by over 600 billion yuan [6][8]. - The consumer loan and business loan segments have seen significant growth, with CCB reporting nearly 30% growth in both areas, contrasting with the decline in housing loans [6][10]. - Credit card business has faced challenges, with all eight banks reporting a decline in credit card balances, particularly ICBC and Postal Savings Bank, which saw declines exceeding 10% [7][10]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Outlook - CCB's management has emphasized the importance of optimizing credit risk management mechanisms in response to rising risks in the retail sector, indicating a focus on risk control moving forward [11][12]. - ICBC's leadership has acknowledged the short-term rise in personal loan NPL ratios but remains optimistic about long-term stability, citing strong economic fundamentals and the potential for improved asset quality through policy support [11][12]. - The article notes that while consumer and business loans are growing rapidly, the associated risks are also increasing, necessitating careful monitoring and management [10][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report indicates that large banks have limited net buying activity, with a monthly cumulative net purchase of 46.8 billion yuan as of March 26, which is a decrease of approximately 200 billion yuan month-on-month but an increase of about 50 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected that credit issuance may slightly decline compared to March 2025, but the initial performance remains strong [7][20] - The central bank's operations included a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan through various monetary policy tools, with a focus on maintaining liquidity stability as the quarter-end approaches [16] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to tighten in April due to tax payments and annual settlement pressures, with potential increases in funding rates towards the end of the month [16][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: March Credit Performance - The data shows that the funding environment remains stable as the quarter-end approaches, with large banks gradually reducing their lending from 4.37 trillion yuan to 3.78 trillion yuan [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming PMI data and bank annual reports for insights into future liquidity trends [23] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted 4.742 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan after accounting for maturing operations [16] - Market rates for various instruments, including treasury bonds and NCDs, have shown slight fluctuations, with the 1-year treasury yield at 1.25% and the average NCD issuance rate at 1.52% [17][18] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) is 18.19 trillion yuan, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.65% [21] - The report notes that there were no new issuances of commercial bank bonds during the period, and the total outstanding amount of commercial bank bonds is 3.32 trillion yuan [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, maintaining the current price of 5.06 CNY and 4.96 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue growth has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with total revenue reaching 355.7 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.4 billion CNY, up 1.1% year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's net interest income decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous quarters, while non-interest income grew by 18.3% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in fee-based services [4][8]. - The bank's loan growth was primarily driven by corporate loans, which accounted for 85% of the total loan increase of 735.1 billion CNY in 2025. Retail loans showed a modest increase of 730 million CNY [5][6]. - The bank's net interest margin for 2025 was 1.66%, a slight decrease from previous quarters, reflecting ongoing pressure on interest income [7]. - A new round of adjustments to savings agency fees is expected to reduce costs significantly, with a projected decrease of 4 basis points in the comprehensive agency fee rate, leading to a reduction of 4.57 billion CNY in agency fees [11][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the bank's revenue and profit growth rates were 2% and 1.1% respectively, with a weighted average return on equity of 8.67%, down 1.17 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - Non-interest income accounted for 20.8% of total revenue, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong performance in card services and investment banking [8]. Asset Quality and Capital Management - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2025 was 0.95%, a slight increase from the previous quarter, with pressure primarily from retail loans [9]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 227.9%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses, although it decreased significantly from earlier in the year [10]. - Capital adequacy ratios showed a slight decline, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 10.53% at the end of 2025 [10][34]. Future Outlook - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026-2028 are 0.75, 0.78, and 0.81 CNY respectively, with price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-shares projected at 0.57, 0.53, and 0.50 for the same period [14][15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The banking sector's performance is relatively stable compared to the market, with the banking index down by 0.71% this week, ranking 13th among 31 primary industries [1] - State-owned banks experienced a larger decline, with respective drops of -1.17% for state-owned banks, -0.30% for joint-stock banks, -0.88% for city commercial banks, and -0.57% for rural commercial banks [1] - The financial reports of 22 listed banks show a recovery in profitability, with average revenue and net profit growth of 2.1% and 4.9%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in earnings [3] - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for these banks is 1.05%, down by 2 basis points, reflecting stable asset quality [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector's index decreased by 0.71%, while the overall market index fell by 0.73%, indicating a slight underperformance [1] - The top three gainers in the banking sector were CITIC Bank (+4.39%), Ping An Bank (+2.32%), and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+1.25%), while the largest decliners included Chongqing Bank (-6.55%), Xiamen Bank (-4.26%), and Agricultural Bank (-4.14%) [1][10] Financial Reports - The financial reports indicate a clear recovery trend, with 22 listed banks showing an average revenue growth of 2.1% and net profit growth of 4.9% [3] - The average net interest margin for the banks is 1.50%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point, while some banks like Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank reported an increase in their margins [3] - The asset scale of these banks grew by 10.1% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration in growth rates [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and certain high-dividend small and medium-sized banks, recommending major banks like Bank of Communications, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Construction Bank [7] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in earnings growth for the banking sector in 2026, with an expected core revenue growth of 5% [6][7] - The average dividend yield for the banking sector is projected at 4.4%, making it an attractive investment option [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][3]. Core Views - The company achieved stable revenue growth in 2025, with operating income reaching 355.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.4 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [1][3]. - The bank's total assets grew by 9.3% year-on-year to 18.68 trillion yuan, with customer deposits and loans both increasing by 8.2% [1][3]. - Non-interest income showed strong growth, with net fee income rising by 16.1% to 29.4 billion yuan, driven by increases in investment banking, wealth management, and custody services [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the average net interest margin was 1.66%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, and net interest income decreased by 1.6% [2][3]. - The bank's asset quality showed slight pressure, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.46%, and the non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.95%, up 0.05 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3][3]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratio improved, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 10.53%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points from the start of the year [1][3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 is adjusted to a net profit of 89.4 billion yuan and 91.7 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected diluted EPS of 0.69 yuan and 0.70 yuan [3][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.4x for 2026 and a PB ratio of 0.57x [3][7].

华泰研究 年报点评 证券研究报告 邮储银行 (601658 CH/1658 HK) 港股通 储蓄代理费率再度优化 2026 年 3 月 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 国有大型银行 邮储银行 25 年归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP 分别同比+1.07%、+1.99%、 +8.00%，增速较 1-9 月分别+0.09pct、+0.18pct、-0.49pct。25 年拟每股派 息 0.2183 元，年度现金分红比例为 30%，股息率 4.31%（2026/3/27）。 预计公司"中收跃升三年计划"、"邮政储蓄代理费下调"等边际变化持续 显效，延续利润韧性，维持 A/H 股增持/买入评级。 对公驱动增长，息差边际下行 25 年末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+9.3%、+8.2%、+8.2%，较 2025 年 9 月末分别变动-1.8pct、-1.7pct、+0.1pct。25 年零售/对公/票据增量占 比分别为+10%/+85%/+5%，新增贷款主要由对公贷款驱动，零售需求偏弱、 风控趋严。25 年公司净利息收入同比-1.6%，增速较 1-9 月+0.5pct。25 年 净息差 1.66%，较 25Q3 下降 2b ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have shown stable growth, with operating income reaching 355.7 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.4 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% year-on-year [1][3] - Non-interest income has performed well, with net fee income increasing by 16.1% to 29.4 billion yuan, driven by growth in investment banking, wealth management, and custody services [2][3] - The asset quality has shown slight pressure, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.46%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total assets of 18.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with customer deposits and loans both increasing by 8.2% [1] - The average net interest margin for 2025 was 1.66%, down by 21 basis points year-on-year, with interest income declining by 1.6% [2] - The company completed capital replenishment, with a core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 10.53%, up by 0.97 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1][3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 projects net profit attributable to shareholders at 89.4 billion yuan and 91.7 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% and 2.5% [3][7] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.69 yuan for 2026 and 0.70 yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.4x and 7.2x [3][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A/Buy-H" with a current price of 5.06 CNY/4.96 HKD and a fair value of 7.57 CNY/7.42 HKD [2] Core Insights - The report highlights strong non-interest income growth and stable dividends, with a slight increase in net profit and revenue for the year 2025. The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.99%, PPOP growth of 6.59%, and a net profit growth of 1.07% [6][9] - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, distributing 0.22 CNY per share, totaling 26.217 billion CNY, which accounts for 30% of the net profit [6][9] - The report anticipates continued growth in non-interest income driven by the expansion of wealth management and investment banking services [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 91.524 billion CNY, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% and a provision coverage ratio of 227.94% [10][11] - The total assets grew by 9.35% year-on-year, with a loan growth rate of 8.25% and a deposit growth rate of 8.20% [10][11] - The net interest margin decreased to 1.66%, reflecting ongoing pressure from interest rate adjustments [10][11] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The company’s revenue structure shows that net interest income accounted for 79.2% of total revenue, while non-interest income contributed 20.8% [23] - The report indicates a significant increase in other non-interest income, which grew by 19.73% year-on-year, reaching 44.743 billion CNY [6][9] - The cost-to-income ratio increased to 62.10%, indicating a rise in operational costs [10][11] Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - The report notes a slight increase in the non-performing loan ratio, which rose by 1 basis point, while the attention loan ratio increased by 19 basis points [10][11] - The company’s capital adequacy ratio remains strong, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.53% [10][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a net profit growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70 CNY and 0.71 CNY [6][9] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in non-interest income streams [6][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (20260323 - 20260327), there were no new issuances of secondary capital bonds in the inter - bank and exchange markets [1]. - The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 177.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three most - traded bonds were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC, 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC), and 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC [2]. - In terms of the regions of issuers, the top three regions in terms of trading volume were Guangdong Province, Guizhou Province, and Heilongjiang Province, with trading volumes of approximately 131.6 billion yuan, 13 billion yuan, and 8.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - As of March 27, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 3.21BP, - 3.87BP, and - 3.87BP respectively; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the changes were - 6.06BP for all three ratings; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the changes for ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA were - 4.25BP, - 4.24BP, and - 4.24BP respectively [2]. - This week, the overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of secondary capital bonds was not large. The proportion of discount transactions was greater than that of premium transactions, and the discount amplitude was larger than the premium amplitude [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance - This week (20260323 - 20260327), there were no new issuances of secondary capital bonds in the inter - bank and exchange markets [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 177.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three most - traded bonds were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (13.259 billion yuan), 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (10.928 billion yuan), and 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC (7.651 billion yuan) [2]. - **Regional Trading Volume**: In terms of the regions of issuers, the top three regions in terms of trading volume were Guangdong Province, Guizhou Province, and Heilongjiang Province, with trading volumes of approximately 131.6 billion yuan, 13 billion yuan, and 8.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of March 27, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 3.21BP, - 3.87BP, and - 3.87BP respectively; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the changes were - 6.06BP for all three ratings; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the changes for ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA were - 4.25BP, - 4.24BP, and - 4.24BP respectively [2]. 3.3 Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Discount Bonds**: The top two bonds with the highest discount rates were 24 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.6931%) and 25 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.6400%), and the discount rates of the rest were within - 0.50%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA -, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 23 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.2287%), 22 Xiamen Rural Commercial Secondary 01 (0.0991%), and 22 Ningbo Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.0701%), and the premium rates of the rest were within 0.07%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang [3].

一、会计师事务所基本情况 经 2024 年年度股东大会批准，本行聘请毕马威华振会计师 事务所（特殊普通合伙）和毕马威会计师事务所（以下合并简称 毕马威）为本行 2025 年度会计师事务所，分别负责对本行按照 中国企业会计准则和国际财务报告准则编制的 2025 年度财务报 表提供审计及相关服务。 （一）毕马威华振会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） 毕马威华振会计师事务所于 1992 年 8 月 18 日在北京成立， 于 2012 年 7 月 5 日获财政部批准转制为特殊普通合伙的合伙制 企业，更名为毕马威华振会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以下 简称毕马威华振）。2025 年末，毕马威华振有合伙人 247 人， 注册会计师 1,412 人，其中签署过证券服务业务审计报告的注册 会计师超过 330 人。 （二）毕马威会计师事务所 毕马威会计师事务所（以下简称毕马威香港）为一所根据香 港法律设立的合伙制事务所，由其合伙人全资拥有。毕马威香港 自 1945 年起在香港提供审计、税务和咨询等专业服务，为众多 1 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司 关于 2025 年度会计师事务所履职情况评估报告 根据《国有企业、上市公司选聘会计师事 ...