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夏春:哈佛教授——美国即将到来的崩溃
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 03:33
夏春系腾讯集团高级经济顾问、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 肯尼斯·S·罗戈夫是哈佛大学经济学教授,也是美国外交关系委员会高级研究员。他曾于2001年至2003年担任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家,着有《 我 们的美元,你的问题:内部人士对全球金融七十年动荡及未来之路的看法》 。 就在上周六,我在《新形势下的人民币国际化与汇率制度变革学术研讨会》上多次介绍罗格夫在《我们的美元,你们的问题》一书的观点。 然后就读到了他在最新一期《外交事务》上的文章"美国即将到来的崩溃"。 在过去二十五年的大部分时间里,世界其他国家都对美国透过借债摆脱困境的能力感到惊讶。无论是民主党还是共和党执政时期,美国政府一次又一次地 比几乎任何其他国家都更积极地利用债务来应对战争、全球经济衰退、流行病和金融危机。即使美国公共债务迅速攀升,从一个平台攀升到另一个平台 ——净债务目前已接近国民所得的100%——国内外债权人却丝毫没有表现出债务疲劳的迹象。在2008-09年全球金融危机后的几年里,美国国债利率一直 处于极低水平,许多经济学家开始相信,这种水平将持续到遥远的未来。因此,持续的政府赤字——新的借款——似乎是名副其实的免费午餐。尽管每次 危机 ...
香港稳定币,慢了一拍
虎嗅APP· 2025-08-09 09:33
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong is expected to revolutionize digital currency, but the stringent licensing requirements have dampened market sentiment, leading to a pessimistic outlook on the future of stablecoins in Hong Kong [2][9]. Summary by Sections Licensing and Market Entry - The licensing requirements for stablecoin issuance in Hong Kong are exceptionally strict, making it difficult for major internet companies like JD.com and Ant Group to qualify for the initial batch of licenses [2][4]. - Only a limited number of licenses, in single digits, will be issued, significantly lower than the market's expectation of "dozens" [2][9]. Regulatory Concerns - Hong Kong's regulatory authorities prioritize safety, fearing that inadequate regulation could lead to financial crimes such as money laundering, especially given the cross-border nature of stablecoins [4][6]. - The regulations require stablecoin issuers to verify the identity of every user and track all transactions to prevent illicit activities [5][6]. Compliance Challenges for Internet Companies - Internet platforms like JD.com and Ant Group face challenges in meeting the stringent compliance and capital requirements set by Hong Kong's regulations, which are more easily met by traditional financial institutions [5][9]. - The regulations also impose high reserve requirements and asset backing for stablecoins, which are difficult for fintech companies to fulfill [5][6]. Comparison with Other Digital Currencies - The stablecoin model in Hong Kong emphasizes compliance, safety, and transparency, distinguishing it from decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and USDT [6][9]. - The article suggests that Hong Kong's stablecoin could serve as a digital currency extension rather than a direct competitor to existing cryptocurrencies [6][7]. Global Context and Strategic Positioning - The dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in global transactions highlights the need for Hong Kong to establish its own stablecoin to mitigate the risks associated with dollar hegemony [8][9]. - The article argues that Hong Kong's stablecoin initiative is both a defensive measure against dollar dominance and an offensive strategy to gain a larger role in the future global monetary system [7][8].
不是中俄,而是美国正废掉美联储,挖SWIFT结算体系墙角
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 08:52
最近,美国总统特朗普正式签署了一项重要法案,名为稳定币监管法案,简称《天才法案》。这是美国 在联邦层面首次对稳定币进行立法,意味着今后将会有一个官方的监管框架来管理支付型稳定币的发 行、支持资产储备以及相关的监管执法工作。然而,特朗普推动这一法案的背后,究竟有什么样的深层 目的呢? 一、巩固美元的全球霸权 《天才法案》明确规定,所有稳定币必须与美元或美国国债完全挂钩。这一规定不仅将全球对稳定币的 需求转化为对美债的直接支持,更是加强了美元的国际统治地位。稳定币的推广,能够有效地削弱小国 的金融系统,利用私营稳定币的优势在拉丁美洲和非洲这些高通胀国家中,取代当地货币进行跨境支 付,从而进一步扩大美元的实际使用范围。华尔街的资本家们则可以通过各种金融创新手段,将1美元 的美债转化为更多的资产,最终影响全球的金融稳定和秩序。 二、缓解美债的压力与财政风险 中国的反应与应对措施 面对特朗普政府的这一策略,中国迅速做出反应,清晰地将其视作对中国金融主权的侵蚀。中国央行旗 下的媒体"玉渊潭天"对此进行了强烈指责,认为美国稳定币的运作正是对其他国家货币主权的侵犯,国 际清算银行也对此发出了警告。为了应对这一挑战,中国已经进 ...
管涛:稳定币在货币体系中将扮演何种角色仍待观察
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 12:57
7月,美国总统特朗普签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》(简称《天才法案》),正式将稳定 币纳入监管,近期市场对于稳定币的关注热度很高。 稳定币是一种与法定货币或资产挂钩的加密货币,基于区块链、分布式账本技术支持点对点、支付即结 算的交易,从底层重塑了传统支付体系,大幅缩短跨境支付链条,改善跨境支付体验。 不过,稳定币在未来货币体系中将扮演何种角色仍然有待观察。根据国际清算银行的报告,稳定币在单 一性、弹性、完整性三个关键测试中,均未达到国际货币体系支柱的要求,报告称稳定币的未来角色尚 不明朗,充其量只能扮演辅助角色。 值得注意的是,美国通过《天才法案》把稳定币纳入监管,实质是限制了央行发行数字货币,鼓励和规 范私人发行数字货币,中国则选择了央行数字货币发行的渠道,路径选择不同。 中国一直是拥抱新兴支付技术、支付工具的先行者,很早就开始推动央行数字货币。央行数字货币项目 也是基于区块链/分布式账本技术,采取区块链点对点交易模式,简化跨境支付环节,保证交易安全性 和可追溯性。中国实际是以最小摩擦成本实现了新兴支付技术与现有监管规则的对接。 目前,数字人民币已扩展至17个省市的26个试点地区,截至2024年7 ...
美国“加密周”暗流涌动:一场8小时的投票,稳定币相关法案签署;特朗普起诉默多克和新闻集团索赔100亿美元;甲骨文创始人成全球第二富豪 | 一周国际财经
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 06:04
◆当地时间7月18日,特朗普签署《天才法案》,确立美国数字稳定币监管框架。此前,美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案,过程曲折,经历了长达8小时的 创纪录程序性投票。特朗普从看空加密货币到力挺,意在维护美元霸权、解决美国国债问题、维护华尔街利益及个人利益。美元稳定币全球扩张引发担忧, 49国启动央行数字货币试点以应对,全球制度竞赛与防御战已全面展开。 ◆特朗普起诉默多克和新闻集团索赔100亿美元;沃勒表态"愿意接替鲍威尔";甲骨文创始人身家逾2900亿美元成全球第二富豪;美国驻土耳其大使:以色 列与叙利亚已同意停火;马斯克旗下公司推AI男友"Valentine"。 一场8小时的投票:美国"加密周"暗流涌动! 从"看空"到"力挺",特朗普为何拥抱稳定币? 当地时间7月18日,美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》(简称《天才法案》),标志着美国首次正式确立数字稳定币 的监管框架。前一日,美国国会众议院经表决通过包括《天才法案》在内的三项加密数字货币法案。 然而,这场看似顺理成章的立法进程,却在众议院经历了长达8小时、创下电子投票系统启用以来最长纪录的程序性投票,甚至出现了部分共和党议员拒绝 ...
专访经济学家李稻葵:稳定币的本质是货币基金,华尔街和美国政府是美元稳定币的两大推手 | 祛魅稳定币
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 09:18
编者按:随着美国国会众议院通过了《天才法案》(Genius Act),中国香港的《稳定币条例》即将于8月1日生效,以及欧盟委员会已于6月下旬通过 《加密资产市场条例》补充修正案,全球稳定币领域正迎来"窗口期"。《每日经济新闻》特别策划推出"祛魅稳定币"系列专访,邀请多位顶尖学者,试图 穿透稳定币的"稳定"表象,拆解其底层运行机制,展开兼具专业深度与现实价值的全方位讨论。 近期,全球的稳定币监管体系正在逐步明朗化。据相关机构统计,稳定币市场规模从2020年的约50亿美元增长至2025年的超2500亿美元,年复合增长率超 过100%。渣打银行预测,到2028年稳定币市场规模可能达到2万亿美元。 稳定币的本质是一种货币基金 NBD:稳定币的本质是什么? 李稻葵:稳定币本质上是一种以法定货币为锚、可以随时交换的货币基金,可以替代银行转账功能。 NBD:现在大家对于稳定币有诸多讨论。在您看来,普通人对稳定币最容易误解的一点是什么? 李稻葵:应该是认为它能取代法定货币。但实际上,稳定币与法定货币是一比一的对应关系,其流动性也是受到法定货币的限制,存量也会受到法定货币 供应量的限制。 知名经济学家、清华大学中国经济思想与实 ...
金十整理:美国三大加密法案获众议院通过,加密市场将开启新纪元?
news flash· 2025-07-18 03:33
Group 1: Overview of the Bills - The three bills passed by the House of Representatives aim to regulate the cryptocurrency market and establish a new era for digital assets in the U.S. [1] - The bills include the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, each targeting different aspects of cryptocurrency regulation [1][2][3] Group 2: GENIUS Act - The GENIUS Act establishes a federal standard for stablecoin issuance, requiring 100% cash or U.S. Treasury reserves and banning algorithmic stablecoins [1] - It implements a dual regulatory system involving both federal and state oversight, allowing retail giants to issue stablecoins [1] - Controversies include a lack of user redemption guarantees and deposit insurance, which may exacerbate market monopolization [1] Group 3: CLARITY Act - The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC regarding digital assets [2] - It distinguishes between securities and commodities based on decentralization levels and allows compliant token transformations [2] - The act also protects user self-custody rights and simplifies startup financing processes [2] - Concerns exist regarding potential enforcement by the SEC on "pseudo-decentralized" projects, leading to regulatory conflicts [2] Group 4: Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act permanently prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) [3] - It aims to protect citizens' financial privacy and cash anonymity by preventing government monitoring of transaction data [3] - Critics argue that this could hinder innovation in CBDCs and affect the internationalization strategy of the U.S. dollar [3] Group 5: Market Reactions - Circle views the passage of the GENIUS Act as a milestone for the monetary and internet financial systems, indicating bipartisan support for responsible innovation [4] - Interactive Brokers notes that the cryptocurrency market had already priced in some positive expectations, with no immediate sell-off observed [4] - DeFi Technologies believes the bills mark a new era for digital assets, allowing companies to diversify into Ethereum and Solana [4] - The Blockchain Association sees the bipartisan support for the GENIUS Act as a watershed moment for the U.S. digital asset market [4] - Longbow Asset Management anticipates that Bitcoin will reach new highs and Ethereum will rebound, with increased interest from investors [4] - Bell Curve Trading warns that while regulatory frameworks may attract broader participation, cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with the S&P 500 and may not serve as an economic hedge [5]
英国央行行长贝利“炮轰”特朗普贸易战:有损全球家庭利益 致使经济碎片化
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 23:51
Group 1 - Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, criticized Donald Trump's trade war, stating it harms global household interests and leads to economic fragmentation [1] - Bailey emphasized the need for countries to cooperate to address unsustainable trade and financial imbalances, particularly between the US and China, which account for nearly 40% of global current account imbalances [1][2] - He argued that unilateral imposition of rules by any single country is not a viable solution for achieving lasting stability in the global economy [1] Group 2 - Bailey pointed out that the US has a current account deficit and a significant budget deficit, supported by capital inflows due to the dollar's reserve currency status [2] - He suggested that a better approach to resolving trade issues is through multilateral institutions like the IMF and WTO to restore balance in trade and finance [2] - Bailey expressed skepticism about the future role of stablecoins and the necessity of a central bank digital currency, indicating a cautious stance on innovations in the banking sector [2]
白宫:特朗普政府希望禁止央行数字货币
news flash· 2025-07-15 15:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration is seeking to ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the United States [1] Group 2 - The White House's AI and cryptocurrency director, Sacks, is a key figure in this initiative [1] - The move reflects a broader skepticism towards CBDCs within the current administration [1] - The potential implications of this ban could affect the future development and adoption of digital currencies in the U.S. [1]
白宫AI与加密货币主管:特朗普政府希望禁止央行数字货币
news flash· 2025-07-15 15:26
Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration aims to prohibit central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) according to White House AI and cryptocurrency director Sacks [1] Group 1 - The Trump administration's stance reflects a broader skepticism towards CBDCs, indicating potential regulatory challenges for their implementation in the U.S. [1]