Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold stocks is driven by rising gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $3700 per ounce and a projected increase to $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 due to strong investor demand and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Gold Stocks Performance - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 3.65% to HKD 36.34 - China Silver Group (00815) rose by 2% to HKD 0.51 - Zhaojin Mining (01818) gained 1.95% to HKD 30.3 - Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) went up by 1.16% to HKD 31.4 [1] Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, anticipating that gold could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, with a potential rise to $5000 if the Federal Reserve's independence is challenged [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to concerns over global debt and monetary policies, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill expected to raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [1] Investment Outlook - Huaxi Securities suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to global monetary and debt concerns, indicating that gold stocks are currently undervalued and present a good investment opportunity [1]

每经AI快讯，黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787.HK)涨3.65%，报36.34港元；中国白银 集团(00815.HK)涨2%，报0.51港元；招金矿业(01818.HK)涨1.95%，报30.3港元；赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨 1.16%，报31.4港元。 ...

华西证券此前指出，长期看，全球货币与债务担忧，使得黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向，"大 而美"法案的通过预计提高美国3.4万亿美元财政赤字，全球多国财政赤字处于高位，国债利率上涨，看 好未来黄金价格，受益于金价上涨，黄金资源股盈利预期增强，目前黄金股估值处于较低水平，关注黄 金股配置机会。 消息面上，9月15日，COMEX黄金突破3700美元/盎司，再创新高，年内累计上涨超40%。据悉，摩根 大通上调对金价的价格预测，在即将到来的美联储降息周期和由此引燃的强劲投资者需求的双重推动 下，预计现货金价将在2026年第一季度突破4000美元/盎司大关。同时，若美联储独立性受到冲击，投 资者的资金轮动可能在两个季度内将金价推至5000美元高位。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)涨3.65%，报36.34港元；中国白 银集团(00815)涨2%，报0.51港元；招金矿业(01818)涨1.95%，报30.3港元；赤峰黄金(06693)涨1.16%， 报31.4港元。 ...

Group 1 - UBS raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and for mid-2026 by $200 to $3,900 per ounce, citing expectations of a loosening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar related to interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold ETF holdings are expected to exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, approaching previous record levels, driven by increased confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid declining trust in dollar assets and ongoing regional risks [1] - As of September 11, gold futures prices have significantly increased, attracting over 100 billion yuan in capital, with a cumulative increase of over 17 billion yuan in September alone [1] Group 2 - As of September 12, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 52.20% over the past six months, ranking 67 out of 3,610 index stock funds, placing it in the top 1.86% [4] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, closely tracking the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index, which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.52% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [6]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to strong performance in Asian stock markets [2] - The expectation of a rate cut is driving global funds to accelerate purchases of gold, with recommendations to focus on leading gold companies [2] - The strategic value of rare metals is increasing due to trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts, with a clear global monopoly pattern emerging in the rare earth industry [2] Group 2 - The strategic metals sector may undergo a value reassessment, with recommendations to focus on rare earth magnets and tungsten [3] - Key Hong Kong stocks related to the gold industry include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [4] - Key Hong Kong stocks related to rare earth magnets include Jien Mining and those related to tungsten include Jiahua International Resources [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the simultaneous rise in copper and aluminum prices due to both domestic and international factors [5][6] - Weak employment data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which is expected to boost precious metals [5][6] - The report suggests that while gold remains a focus for investment, the recovery of the silver-gold ratio indicates potential for silver as well [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the weak performance of the U.S. labor market and its implications for precious metals, particularly gold and silver [5][6] - It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance in terms of price, valuation, and style due to anticipated rate cuts [5][6] - For silver, the report advises attention to its potential to converge with gold as inflation expectations rise [5][6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals have seen a broad increase, with LME copper rising by 1.7% and aluminum by 3.8% [6][27] - The report notes that domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to enhance demand outlook [6] - It indicates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6] Strategic and Minor Metals - The report discusses the strategic reassessment of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their long-term value due to government policies and market dynamics [7] - It highlights the upward price trend for cobalt and nickel, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand in the battery sector [7] - The report also mentions the bottoming out of lithium prices, with a cautious outlook on future price movements [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks continue to rise, driven by increasing expectations of interest rate cuts following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [2] Company Performance - Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 8.19%, trading at HKD 18.37 [2] - Tongguan Gold (00340) increased by 4.98%, trading at HKD 2.32 [2] - China Gold International (600916) (02099) saw a rise of 3.6%, trading at HKD 138.1 [2] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by 3.27%, trading at HKD 29.7 [2] Market Trends - The international spot gold price has risen by 40% year-to-date, reflecting strong demand and market confidence [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2029 and beyond to USD 3,300 per ounce, up from the previous forecast of USD 2,850 per ounce [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that gold prices could reach USD 4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios potentially pushing prices close to USD 5,000 [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks continue to rise, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) increasing by 8.19% to HKD 18.37 [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) rises by 4.98% to HKD 2.32 [1] - China Gold International (02099.HK) sees a 3.6% increase, reaching HKD 138.1 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) grows by 3.27% to HKD 29.7 [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surpassed the inflation-adjusted peak set over 45 years ago, driven by increasing market concerns about the U.S. economy, continuing a three-year bull market for gold [1] - As of September 9, spot gold has risen approximately 5% in September, reaching a historical high of $3,674.27, and has set over 30 nominal records this year [1] - Analysts and investors agree that gold has firmly surpassed the inflation-adjusted level of $3,590, reinforcing its status as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 1.68% as of September 12, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Yuguang Gold Lead (10.02%) and Hunan Silver (9.98%) [4] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 2.04%, with a recent price of 1.55 yuan, and has seen a 7.65% rise over the past week, ranking 3rd among comparable funds [4] - The Gold Stock ETF has experienced a net outflow of 451.87 million yuan recently, but has seen net inflows on 3 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 32.5 million yuan [4] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF has achieved a net value increase of 52.47% over the past six months, ranking in the top 1.80% among 3,604 index stock funds [5] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 16.59%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5] - The fund's Sharpe ratio of 1.91 ranks it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4 - The management fee for the Gold Stock ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [6] - The index tracks 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in mainland China and Hong Kong [6] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.52% of the total, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold among the largest [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift towards a loose monetary policy, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Gold prices are anticipated to rise further due to strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside heightened global trade policy uncertainties and regional political turmoil [1] Group 2: Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the first half of 2025, with both cyclical and trend forces resonating [1] - Longjiang Securities notes that gold prices have reached new highs amid deepening trade conflicts and recession expectations in the U.S., with most companies in the industry entering a phase of volume expansion, leading to enhanced profit elasticity [1] Group 3: ETF Fund Performance - As of September 10, 2025, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 52.09% over the past six months, ranking 55 out of 3589 in the index stock fund category [3] - The gold stock ETF fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5] Group 4: Fund Liquidity and Inflows - The gold stock ETF fund has experienced active trading, with a turnover rate of 17.47% and a total transaction volume of 20.08 million yuan [2] - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 33.81 million yuan, totaling 42.81 million yuan in net inflows [2] Group 5: Fund Metrics - The gold stock ETF fund's latest scale reached 116 million yuan, marking a one-year high, with the latest share count at 76.41 million, also a one-year high [2] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.91, ranking it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [6]