2025 年 4 月 8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 固生堂 (2273 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$61.84) 目标价: HK$61.84 当前股价: HK$28.55 股价上行/下行空间 +117% 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) 49.90/25.50 市值 (US$mn) 908 当前发行数量(百万股) 247 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 17 流通盘占比 (%) 100 主要股东 (%) Action Thrive 12 Dream True 8 Gushengtang 7 按 2025 年 4 月 7 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 61.84 | 73.95 | -16% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 1.61 | 2.00 | -19% | | 2026E EPS (RMB) | 2.00 | 2.62 | -24% | | 2027E EPS (RMB) | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 194.39, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of RMB 126.54 [1][6][26]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive product line in medical imaging, challenging the dominance of imported brands in the Chinese market. The product lines include CT, MR, XR, MI, and RT, with significant market shares in previously monopolized segments [6][20][40]. - The company is expected to experience a revenue CAGR of 14.2% from 2023 to 2026, driven by technological advancements and policy support, despite facing short-term impacts in 2024 [6][22][24]. - The overseas business has shown strong growth, with revenue reaching RMB 9.33 billion in the first half of 2024, a 29.9% increase year-on-year, indicating the company's expanding international influence [7][23]. - The report highlights the company's focus on R&D innovation, with significant investments leading to the launch of groundbreaking products, such as the world's first 5T whole-body clinical MR [24][25]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10.26 billion in 2024 to RMB 16.98 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 1.26 billion to RMB 2.88 billion during the same period [8][22]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.52, RMB 2.62, and RMB 3.50, respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][8]. Market Context - The Chinese medical imaging equipment market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2019 to 2023, with the CT segment holding the largest market share at 32% in 2023 [29][30]. - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for high-end medical imaging equipment driven by an aging population and rising health awareness, which is expected to sustain market growth [33][34].

2025 年 3 月 20 日 软件及服务: 超配 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 金蝶国际 (268 HK, 持有, 目标价: HK$14.94) | 目标价: HK$14.94 | 当前股价: HK$15.14 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | -1% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 17.76/5.26 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 6,987 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 3,586 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 89 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 68 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 徐少春 | 19 | | 按 2025 年 3 月 17 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 持有 | 持有 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 14.94 | 6.38 | 134% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 0.05 | 0.12 | -61% | | 2026E EP ...

2025 年 3 月 20 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 首次覆盖报告 联影医疗 (688271 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB194.39) 凭借齐全的医疗影像产品线挑战进口品牌在中国市场的主导地位：联影医疗丰富的医疗影 像产品线，涵盖了计算机断层扫描（CT）、磁共振成像（MR）、X 射线成像（XR）、分 子成像（MI）以及放射治疗（RT）等多个领域。根据公司 2023 年年报，联影医疗在中国 医学影像多个曾经长期被跨国公司垄断的细分市场的份额位列前茅。公司的 CT 产品线 （占 2023 年收入的 41%），覆盖了从低端到高端的广泛市场，我们预计将受益于国产替 代加速，高端技术发展与医疗资源下沉的趋势。我们认为，依靠核心技术自研和全市场覆 盖战略，MR 产品（占 2023 年收入的 33%）将成为未来推动收入增长的关键力量。同 时，我们预期公司的其他产品线（MI、XR 和 RT）在国产替代、智能化升级等进程的推动 下，也将实现稳步增长。尽管我们预计 2024 年公司业绩将面临短暂的政策影响，我们相 信公司业绩将从 2025 年开始恢复增长势头，预计 2023-2026E 年的收入 CAGR 为 1 ...

2025 年 3 月 20 日 软件及服务: 超配 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 金蝶国际 (268 HK, 持有, 目标价: HK$14.94) | 目标价: HK$14.94 | 当前股价: HK$15.14 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | -1% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 17.76/5.26 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 6,987 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 3,586 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 89 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 68 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 徐少春 | 19 | | 按 2025 年 3 月 17 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 持有 | 持有 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 14.94 | 6.38 | 134% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 0.05 | 0.12 | -61% | | 2026E EP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) with a target price of HK$10.30, representing a potential upside of 34% from the current price of HK$7.71 [1][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first full-year profitability in 2024, with total revenue of RMB 4.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit of RMB 0.081 billion [6][11]. - The report highlights a significant upward revision of the target price from HK$5.56 to HK$10.30, reflecting improved revenue and profit forecasts [2][18]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of RMB 5.321 billion, RMB 6.147 billion, and RMB 7.156 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [15][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 4.808 billion, with a gross profit margin of 31.7% [6][10]. - The healthcare services segment generated revenue of RMB 2.169 billion, while the health services segment saw a decline to RMB 2.356 billion [24]. - The elderly care services segment experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing to RMB 0.283 billion from RMB 0.055 billion in the previous year [8][24]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report projects an increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E to RMB 0.07, up from RMB 0.05, and for 2026E to RMB 0.10, up from RMB 0.07 [2][15]. - The net profit forecast for 2025E is adjusted to RMB 1.41 billion, down from previous estimates due to increased management and sales expenses [15][16]. Business Segments - The medical services revenue is expected to grow to RMB 2.316 billion in 2025E, while health services revenue is projected at RMB 2.439 billion [17][24]. - The elderly care services revenue is anticipated to rise significantly to RMB 0.566 billion in 2025E, reflecting a strategic focus on integrated elderly care solutions [8][17]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in a target price of HK$10.30, which corresponds to a 2025 P/S ratio of 4.34x, higher than the industry average of 2.1x [18][19]. - The WACC is maintained at 9.2%, with a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 302.30, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][8][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing in 2025, supported by a strong performance in Q4 2024, where lithium battery sales reached 145 GWh, reflecting a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase [6][11]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 457.1 billion in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 63.3 billion, and an EPS of RMB 13.97 [10][14]. - The report notes a significant increase in production capacity utilization, which reached 76.3% for the year, with expectations of further growth in the second half of 2024 [7][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a target price adjustment to RMB 302.30 from RMB 301.00 [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 362.0 billion for 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling battery prices influenced by lower lithium carbonate costs [6][10]. - The average selling prices for power and energy storage batteries were RMB 0.75/Wh and RMB 0.70/Wh, respectively [6]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects 2025E EPS at RMB 13.97, with a subsequent increase to RMB 17.28 in 2026E and RMB 18.89 in 2027E [2][10]. - The adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 457.1 billion and RMB 508.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a 12.6% and 14.2% increase from previous estimates [15]. Market Position - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected net profit margin of approximately 14.7% in 2025, supported by a robust cash flow and dividend policy [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the lithium battery market, with a focus on expanding its market share in Europe through new production facilities [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of US$26.92, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of US$21.77 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first annual Non-GAAP net profit in 2024, delivering 216 units of the EH216-S model and generating revenue of RMB 164.3 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 190.2% [7][11]. - The management expects revenue to reach RMB 900 million in 2025, corresponding to the delivery of approximately 450 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 97% [8][14]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to complete the second phase of its Yunfu factory by 2025, increasing annual capacity to 1,000 units [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with an updated target price of US$26.92, reflecting a 43% increase from the previous target of US$18.84 [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 456 million for 2024, with a significant increase in Q4 revenue to RMB 164.3 million [10][12]. - The forecast for 2025 includes an estimated revenue of RMB 924 million, with projected EPS of RMB 2.14 [10][15]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to deliver 450, 700, and 850 units of eVOTL in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 9.24 billion, RMB 14.3 billion, and RMB 16.5 billion [14][15]. - The company has over 1,000 units in hand orders, indicating a strong demand outlook [8][9]. Valuation - The report employs a P/S valuation method, adjusting the valuation multiple to 14 times the 2025 P/S, resulting in the target price of US$26.92 [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of US$26.92, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of US$21.77 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first annual Non-GAAP net profit in 2024, delivering 216 units of the EH216-S model and generating revenue of RMB 164.3 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 190.2% [7][11]. - The management expects revenue to reach RMB 900 million in 2025, driven by the delivery of approximately 450 units of the EH216-S, representing a year-on-year growth of 97% [8][14]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to complete the second phase of its Yunfu factory by 2025, increasing annual production capacity to 1,000 units [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to US$26.92 from US$18.84, reflecting a 43% increase [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 456 million for 2024, with a projected revenue of RMB 924 million for 2025 and RMB 1.427 billion for 2026 [10][14]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 2.14, down from the previous estimate of RMB 2.72, indicating a 21% decrease [2]. Market Comparison - The company's revenue forecast for 2025 is 3% higher than market expectations, while the EPS forecast is 528% higher than the market's [5]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to maintain a production strategy based on sales demand, with over 1,000 units in hand orders, ensuring full production capacity in the next 1-2 years [8][9]. Profitability Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will achieve a GAAP net profit in the second half of 2025 and a full-year profit in 2026, with a gross margin expected to remain around 60% [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The company is expected to face significant operational pressure in Q1 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and recent public relations issues at specific locations [4][5]. - Despite challenges, the long-term growth logic of "steady revenue growth and outstanding profitability" remains intact, with a projected market capitalization range of HK$570 billion to HK$1,141 billion based on various assumptions [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 431.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and 2.1% respectively [3][6]. - The report projects a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% due to lower beef and lamb prices, despite a slight decline in net profit margin to 10.7% [3][6]. Adjustments to Estimates - The target price has been raised by 25% from HK$15.55 to HK$19.45, reflecting a 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates have been slightly adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025, but down for 2026 [7][6]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 31,039 million in 2022 to an expected RMB 46,859 million in 2026, with net profit projected to grow from RMB 1,374 million in 2022 to RMB 5,362 million in 2026 [6][13]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB 0.25 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6][13].