Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Insights - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production checks is interpreted as a significant policy move to curb overproduction, potentially leading to a marginal reduction in coal supply of 140 million tons in the second half of the year, which represents 3% of the projected national coal output for 2024 [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 7.93% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [6][20] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reached 653 RMB/ton, an increase of 11 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang port rose to 1680 RMB/ton, up 240 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20] Summary by Sections Policy and Production Impact - The policy aims to stabilize coal prices above long-term contract prices by enforcing stricter production limits, with annual coal output not exceeding announced capacity and monthly output limited to 110% of announced capacity [8] - The production check will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with significant overproduction noted in Xinjiang and some months exceeding 100% capacity utilization in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia [8][14] Market Performance - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable fundamentals and expectations of reduced supply due to the production checks, leading to a positive outlook for coal prices in the short term [6][20] - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption, further supporting price increases [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential for growth and stability, including: - Elastic stocks: Lu'an Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi Coal International - Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical - Transitioning growth companies: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus in the market, with expectations for a three-stage development: policy anticipation, price increases, and demand expansion [2] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point due to capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy being highlighted [3] - High-dividend coal companies and turnaround coking companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are noted for their potential [4] Group 2 - The stabilization and recovery of bulk commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend will benefit the profitability of bulk supply chain companies like Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade, and Zheshang Zhongtuo [5]

流动性方面，截止7月23日，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）近20个交易日累计成交金额29.62亿元，日 均成交金额1.48亿元；今年以来，134个交易日，累计成交金额155.35亿元，日均成交金额1.16亿元。 港股央企红利50ETF（520990）现任基金经理为龚丽丽、汪洋。龚丽丽自2024年7月25日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益17.15%；汪洋自2025年7月15日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 3.73%。 最新定期报告显示，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）重仓股包括中国移动、中国石油股份、中远海控、 中国海洋石油、中国神华、中国石油化工股份、中国电信、中国联通、招商银行、中煤能源，持仓占比 如下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）00941中国移动10.83%621.75万4.94亿00857 中国石油股份10.55%7814.80万4.81亿01919中远海控9.66%3540.75万4.40亿00883中国海洋石油 9.03%2547.10万4.12亿01088中国神华8.09%1328.00万3.69亿00386中国石油化工股份7.66%931 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy from the National Energy Administration aims to regulate coal production, with expectations of reduced output in the future, impacting coal prices and production levels in the industry [2][3][6]. Production Regulation - The policy focuses on coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, with a specific emphasis on monitoring production against announced capacities for 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2]. - The notification is a reiteration of previous standards established in 2021, indicating a long-term regulatory approach rather than a new initiative [2]. - Current data shows that there has not been widespread overproduction at the provincial level, although individual companies may still exhibit imbalances [2][4]. - The enforcement of this policy will be closely monitored, particularly as it relates to the responsibilities of safety supervision agencies [5]. Production Impact - Current estimates suggest that overproduction in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang could reach approximately 200 million tons, with a significant portion attributed to Xinjiang [6]. - The coal production growth rate from July 2024 to June 2025 is projected at 4.8%, indicating a high production level even without considering overproduction management [6]. Price Trends - Since June, there has been a recovery in coal prices, with thermal coal and coking coal prices increasing by approximately 6% and 17%, respectively [7]. - Factors contributing to the price increase include seasonal demand, inventory replenishment in the steel sector, a significant drop in imports, and a slowdown in production growth [8]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to shift from a loose state to a tighter one in the second half of the year [9]. Industry Outlook - The coal sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery due to changing expectations, with a focus on companies that exhibit high elasticity and low valuations [10]. - The current regulatory approach differs from past supply-side reforms, suggesting a more measured strategy that allows for gradual adjustments in the coal industry [10]. Key Companies - Relevant companies in the coal industry include China Coal Energy (601898), Yancoal Australia (03668), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), China Shenhua Energy (601088), and China Qinfa (00866) [11].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in coal production in China's central and eastern regions, with projections indicating a potential exit of approximately 700 million tons of production by 2035, particularly in Shanxi province, which is expected to see the most pronounced decrease [3][4] - The shift in China's coal production focus from the central to the western regions is evident, with the share of production from the central and eastern regions (including Northeast) decreasing by 26% since 2004 [3] - The report emphasizes the limited economically extractable coal reserves in China, with confirmed and credible reserves totaling 2,185.7 billion tons as of the end of 2023, suggesting a potential extraction period of only about 30 years at the current production rate [3][12] Section Summaries 1. Limited Economically Extractable Coal Reserves - China's coal resources are abundant, but the economically extractable reserves are relatively scarce, with a significant portion of reserves located in the western regions [12][13] - The distribution of coal reserves is uneven, with the western regions holding approximately 66% of the total reserves, while the central and eastern regions account for only 28% and 6%, respectively [22][25] - The development of coal reserves in the central and eastern regions faces increasing challenges due to various factors, including deeper mining depths and ecological constraints [33] 2. Declining Coal Production in Central and Eastern Regions - The lifecycle of coal mines typically exhibits a pattern of initial ramp-up, stable production, and a sharp decline in later stages, with the central region's production expected to decrease significantly [2][4] - New coal mines are predominantly being established in the western regions, indicating limited potential for resource development in the central and eastern areas [4][5] - The report notes that the production capacity in key mining areas is rapidly depleting, with challenges in capacity succession becoming more pronounced [4][5] 3. Assessment of Decline Trends and Impacts - The central region, particularly Shanxi, is projected to see an accelerated decline in coal production, with an estimated exit of around 700 million tons by 2035 [4][5] - The report identifies that the consumption rate of coal resources in core mining areas is high, leading to challenges in maintaining production capacity [4][5] - The market for coal mining rights is becoming increasingly competitive, with state-owned enterprises facing structural disadvantages in resource acquisition [4][5] 4. Investment Recommendations - In light of the declining coal production trends in the central and eastern regions, the report suggests focusing on companies with long service life and abundant coal resources in these areas, such as Xinjie Energy and Huaibei Mining [4] - Companies with resources in the Jinshan-Mongolia region or those prioritizing resource acquisition in western Xinjiang are also recommended, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4] - The report highlights the potential for asset injections from state-owned enterprises, suggesting that companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua may benefit from such developments [4]

Market Overview - The market showed an overall upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a five-day winning streak and increased trading volume [1] - The coal sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Shanmei International hitting the daily limit, driven by a notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production inspections [1][4] - Other sectors such as hydropower, civil explosives, engineering machinery, cement, and steel also saw significant gains, with leading companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Construction achieving consecutive gains [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2,540 stocks rose while 2,724 declined, with 114 stocks hitting the daily limit and 11 stocks hitting the lower limit [2] - High-profile stock Weiqi New Materials achieved a record of 10 consecutive daily limits, with a cumulative increase of over 519% [1] Fund Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in coal mining, liquor, battery, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals sectors [3] - Conversely, there were capital outflows from IT services, automotive parts, software development, general equipment, and diversified finance sectors [3] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The National Energy Administration announced a crackdown on coal mines exceeding production capacity to stabilize coal supply and market order [4] - Shenzhen is expected to see reforms that will allow companies listed in Hong Kong to return to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [5] Market Outlook - China Galaxy expressed optimism about the market, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain above 3,500 points, suggesting a potential upward trend [2][7] - Long-term expectations for the coal sector remain positive, with anticipated strong coal prices and a peak demand season approaching [8] - Huazhong Securities forecasted that the technology sector will continue to perform strongly, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [9]

金融界7月21日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证香港300上游指数 (H300上游，H30100)报2739.89点。 数据统计显示，中证香港300上游指数近一个月上涨3.08%，近三个月上涨17.66%，年至今上涨 12.89%。 据了解，中证香港300主题指数系列从中证香港300指数样本中根据中证行业分类选取符合相应主题的证 券作为指数样本，反映了在香港交易所上市各主题证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日， 以1000.0点为基点。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收 购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（28.06%）、中国石油股份 （13.23%）、紫金矿业（10.89%）、中国神华（9.44%）、中国石油化工股份（9.23%）、中国宏桥 （4.71%）、中煤能源（3.3%）、招金矿业（3.07%）、洛阳钼业（2.83%）、兖矿 ...

中煤能源(01898)发布公告，中国中煤能源股份有限公司(以下简称"发行人"、"公司"、"本公司")于2023 年11月获中国证券监督管理委员会出具的《关于同意中国中煤能源股份有限公司向专业投资者公开发行 公司债券注册的批复》(证监许可〔2023〕2493号)，注册规模为不超过100亿元。 发行人本期债券发行规模不超过人民币20亿元(含20亿元)。每张面值为人民币100元，发行价格为100元/ 张。 本期债券分品种发行。其中品种一期限为5年;品种二期限为15年。并引入品种间回拨选择权，发行人和 主承销商将根据网下簿记建档情况，决定是否行使品种间回拨选择权，品种间回拨比例不受限制。 本期债券品种一询价区间为1.50%-2.10%，品种二询价区间为1.70%-2.30%。本期债券最终票面利率由发 行人与主承销商根据簿记建档结果在询价区间内协商确定。发行人和簿记管理人将于2025年7月22日(T- 1日)以簿记建档形式向网下专业机构投资者利率询价，并根据利率询价情况确定本期债券的最终票面利 率。 本次债券采用分期发行的方式，其中中国中煤能源股份有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创 新公司债券(第二期)(以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semi-anthracite coal industry in China is experiencing robust growth due to increasing environmental policies and demand for clean energy, with production expected to rise from 375 million tons in 2019 to 476 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.90% [1][14]. Industry Overview - Semi-anthracite coal, positioned between anthracite and bituminous coal, has high energy density and low sulfur content, making it environmentally friendly and widely used in power generation, industrial boilers, and chemical industries [3]. - The classification of semi-anthracite coal based on volatile matter content allows for tailored applications in various industries, enhancing resource utilization efficiency [3]. Policy Influence - The Chinese government has implemented multiple policies to promote low-carbon development in the coal industry, emphasizing clean and efficient utilization of coal, with specific targets set for 2030 [5][7]. - Recent policies include the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" and the "Opinions on Strengthening Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal," which aim to enhance coal's green and intelligent development [5][7]. Industry Chain - The semi-anthracite coal industry chain includes upstream activities such as coal mining and washing, midstream production and processing, and downstream applications in various sectors [8]. Production and Demand - China's raw coal production is projected to increase from 3.746 billion tons in 2019 to 4.759 billion tons in 2024, with a 6.00% year-on-year increase in early 2025 [10]. - The demand for electricity is rising, driven by economic growth and increased consumption in various sectors, with total electricity generation expected to grow from 7,417 billion kWh in 2020 to 9,418 billion kWh in 2024 [12]. Competitive Landscape - The semi-anthracite coal market in China is relatively concentrated, dominated by large state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which leverage resource reserves and advanced production technologies [16][17]. - Emerging companies are gradually diversifying the competitive landscape through technological innovation and product optimization [16]. Future Trends - Environmental policies are expected to drive demand for semi-anthracite coal in key sectors such as power generation, metallurgy, and chemicals, as it offers lower emissions compared to other coal types [21]. - The application of semi-anthracite coal is expanding into new areas, including clean fuel production and chemical feedstock, indicating significant potential for future growth [22]. - Technological advancements will enhance production efficiency and reduce emissions, contributing to the industry's upgrade and market expansion [23].