Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF (159930) opened with a decline of 2.27%, indicating a negative market sentiment towards energy stocks [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF (159930) opened at 1.333 yuan, reflecting a drop in value [1] - Since its establishment on August 23, 2013, the fund has achieved a return of 37.76% [1] - The fund's performance over the past month shows a return of 3.11% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Energy ETF experienced declines, including: - China Shenhua down 0.78% - China Petroleum down 1.69% - China Petrochemical down 1.30% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 1.79% - China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 1.64% - Yanzhou Coal Mining down 2.28% - Jereh Group down 3.94% - China Coal Energy down 1.68% - Shanxi Coking Coal down 2.60% - Meijin Energy down 2.82% [1] Group 3: Management Information - The Energy ETF is managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund managers are Dong Jin and Sun Hao [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a rise, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.81 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 4.3% as of October 10, 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that winter coal prices could reach 800 RMB/ton, with expectations of price increases during the heating season [6][25] - The supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, leading to a steady rise in coal prices [6][25] Supply Side Summary - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.55 million tons from October 3 to October 9, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 13% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [2] - The average daily coal production from key monitored enterprises was 6.74 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 100% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) reached 25.36 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 9% [2][23] Demand Side Summary - Cumulative coal consumption in the power and chemical industries has decreased by 2.9% and increased by 15.4% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Iron and steel production has seen a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2] Price Summary - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 677 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, while the price of metallurgical coke increased by 3.18% [4] - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rise, particularly during the heating season [6][25] Sentiment Summary - The report highlights that the current coal asset dividends are reasonable, with a positive fundamental outlook [6][25] - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6][25]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation report on the "2·15" fatal accident at Yilan No. 3 Coal Mine of China Coal Energy Heilongjiang Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. reveals that the incident, which occurred on February 15, 2025, resulted in two fatalities due to violations of operational regulations and inadequate safety management [1]. Group 1 - The accident occurred at 7:41 AM on February 15, 2025, leading to the death of two individuals [1]. - The investigation was conducted by a team comprising the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau Heilongjiang Bureau, the Heilongjiang Provincial Emergency Management Department, and other local authorities [1]. - The direct cause of the accident was identified as workers violating safety protocols by climbing over a fall prevention fence and slipping into a ventilation shaft [1]. Group 2 - The investigation team held 17 individuals accountable, including the two deceased, from Yilan No. 3 Mine, China Coal Longhua Company, and regulatory departments [2]. - The disciplinary actions were proposed by the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies against 15 individuals, including party members and supervisory targets [2].

Core Points - The investigation report on the "2·15" fatal accident at the Yilan Third Coal Mine of China Coal Energy in Heilongjiang was released, confirming that the incident, which occurred on February 15, 2025, resulted in two fatalities due to violations of operational procedures and inadequate safety management [1] Summary by Sections - **Accident Details** - The accident occurred at approximately 7:41 AM on February 15, 2025, resulting in the death of two individuals [1] - The direct cause of the accident was identified as workers violating safety protocols by climbing over a fall prevention fence and slipping into a ventilation shaft [1] - **Investigation and Findings** - An investigation team was formed, including representatives from the Heilongjiang Provincial Emergency Management Department, Harbin Public Security Bureau, and other local authorities [1] - The investigation concluded that the accident was a production safety responsibility incident due to operational violations and insufficient safety management [1] - **Accountability Measures** - The investigation team identified 17 individuals responsible, including the two deceased, from Yilan Third Mine, China Coal Longhua Company, and regulatory bodies [1] - Disciplinary actions were recommended against 15 individuals, including party members and supervisory personnel, by the disciplinary inspection agency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector is experiencing inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints and potential price support due to a tight supply-demand balance [1] Supply Side - During the holiday, some mines underwent maintenance, and three major ports for Mongolian coal were closed for seven days, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventory [1] - Post-holiday, an acceleration in customs clearance is expected, while sea freight coal arrivals have decreased from high levels, resulting in a reduction in supply compared to the previous period [1] Market Performance - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits have also recovered alongside price rebounds [1] - Citic Securities reports that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters [1] Price Outlook - The iron and steel production remains high in the context of a "de-involution" environment, and if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, it may maintain a tight balance in the coking coal supply-demand structure, supporting coking coal prices [1] - The overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable in Q4, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons, and if the de-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Sector Improvement - The current policies, coal prices, and performance expectations for the sector are improving, and there is potential for sustained excess returns as market styles rotate or policies catalyze [1] Related Companies - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]

Core Insights - The coking coal sector experienced inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints due to maintenance at some mines and a seven-day closure of three major ports for Mongolian coal, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventories [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits also saw a recovery alongside price rebounds [1] - The high iron and steel production levels in the domestic "anti-involution" environment may support a tight supply-demand balance in the coking coal industry, potentially stabilizing prices and restoring profit margins for Mongolian coal trading companies [1] - CITIC Securities reported that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters; coking coal and anthracite companies show greater earnings elasticity, while the thermal coal sector remains the largest profit contributor [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons; if the anti-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The current policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations in the sector are improving, and the sector may see sustained excess returns with market style rotation or policy catalysts in the future [1] Related Hong Kong Stocks - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for various companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Company Performance - Strength Development (01277) increased by 5.76%, trading at 1.47 HKD - China Coal Energy (601898) (01898) rose by 4.37%, trading at 9.8 HKD - Yida Commodity (01733) saw a 3.45% increase, trading at 0.9 HKD - China Shenhua Energy (601088) (01088) gained 2.91%, trading at 38.92 HKD [1] Industry Outlook - Zheshang Securities (601878) forecasts that the overall performance of coal enterprises will see a narrowing year-on-year decline by Q3 2025, with improvements expected on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - As the heating season approaches, power plants and heating companies are expected to replenish their stocks, which will support an increase in spot prices due to elevated long-term contract prices [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to promote industry self-discipline, driving a reduction in coal supply and further supporting steady price increases [1] - Capacity replacement restrictions are expected to limit production scale, potentially leading to a decrease in capacity due to capacity indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced significant gains in the late trading session, indicating positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Strength Development (01277) rose by 5.76%, reaching HKD 1.47 - China Coal Energy (01898) increased by 4.37%, reaching HKD 9.8 - Yida Commodity (01733) saw a rise of 3.45%, reaching HKD 0.9 - China Shenhua (01088) gained 2.91%, reaching HKD 38.92 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Zheshang Securities forecasts that the overall performance of coal enterprises will see a narrowing year-on-year decline and an improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis by Q3 2025 [1] - As the heating season approaches, power plants and heating companies are expected to replenish their stocks, which will support an increase in spot prices due to long-term contract price rises [1] - Coal prices are anticipated to rise in mid to late October [1] Group 3: Policy and Supply Dynamics - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue promoting industry self-discipline, driving a contraction in coal supply and further supporting steady coal price increases [1] - Capacity replacement restrictions are likely to limit production scale, with potential reductions in capacity influenced by capacity indicators [1] - The industry maintains a "positive" outlook rating [1]

Core Points - The stock price of China Coal Energy increased by 2.02% on October 9, reaching 11.59 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 153.668 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price decline of 2.78%, with a 1.53% drop over the last five trading days, but a 3.57% increase over the last 20 days and a 5.54% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The main business revenue composition includes coal business (81.03%), coal chemical business (12.48%), and coal mining equipment manufacturing (6.24%) [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 74.436 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.705 billion CNY, down 21.28% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 42.873 billion CNY, with 19.185 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.08% to 95,000, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 66.186 million shares, and various ETFs such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, which increased their holdings [3]