国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 金价高位波动克重承压,定价金翻倍增长 ——周大福 FY2025Q1 主要经营数据点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------|------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘越男(分析师) | 苏颖(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38038344 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | suying@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880522110001 | 本报告导读: FY2025Q1 经营业绩符合预期,定价黄金翻倍增长表现亮眼;考虑到定价黄金结构贡 献占比提升及金价上行存货增值,FY2025 利润率提振可期。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 业绩符合预期,维持"增持"评级。预计公司 2025-2027 财年归母净利 润为 74.20/82.09/90.85 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年07月24日 周犬福(01929. HK) 4–6 月金价燃荡下零售增长承压,高毛利定价产品占比提升 ◆ 公司研究・公司快评 商贸零售・专业连锁 II ◆ 投资评级 : 优于大市(维持) 张岭市证券分析师:021-60933168zhang jh@guosen. com. cn 证券分析师:物相0755-81981311l i uxu1@guosen. com. cn 执证编码:S0980517070001 执证编码:S0980522120001 事项: 公司发布 2024 年 4~6 月未经审核的主要经营数据,整体零售值同比下降 20%,其中中国〈不含港澳台〉市 场零售值同比下降 18. 6%,中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场同比下降 28. 8%。 国信零售观点:1)同店方面,中国(不含港澳台)市场同店销售同比下降 26. 4%,中国香港、中国澳门及 其他市场同店销售下降 30. 8%。2)开店方面,公司继续贯彻强化单店效益的规划,季内对低效门店进行调 整,净关店 95 家门店,其中周大福主品牌 91 家,其他品牌 4 家,期末门店总数 7659 家。公司整体 4–6 月经营表现承 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 2024 年 07 月 24 日 周大福(01929.HK) 短期需求波动,关注公司长期盈利能力改善 短期终端需求波动,FY2025 Q1 公司 RSV 同比下降 20%。2024 年 4-6 月公 司 RSV 同比下降 20%,其中内地 RSV 同比下降 18.6%,港澳及其他市场 RSV 同比下降 28.8%,居民珠宝首饰购买意愿较弱。 内地:2024 年 4-6 月内地 RSV 同比下降 18.6%,RSV 的下降一方面源于消 费疲软态势下同店销售下降明显,同时渠道优化导致 Q2 净关店。 1)同店:消费环境波动叠加金价高企,同店销售下滑明显。1)分渠道看:店 效爬坡助力,加盟同店销售降幅弱于直营。2024 年 4-6 月内地直营同店销售同 比下滑 26.4%,加盟同店下滑 19.1%,我们判断加盟业务表现优于直营主要系 过往加盟店新开较多,从而导致店效爬坡速度更快。2)分产品看:金价高企导 致克重金饰销售承压,定价产品销售表现优异。2024 年 4-6 月黄金首饰及产品 同店销售下降 27.9%,珠宝镶嵌、铂金及 K 金首饰同店销售同比下降 31.7%, 2024 年以来整 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 14.8% to HK$108,713 million, or by 18.5% on a constant exchange rate basis[9] - Core operating profit increased by 28.9% to HK$12,163 million[9] - Core operating profit margin improved by 120 basis points to 11.2%[9] - Revenue for the year ended 31 March 2024 is HKD 108,713 million, with a gross profit of HKD 22,285 million[16] - Core operating profit for the year ended 31 March 2024 is HKD 9,439 million, with a core operating profit margin of 10.0%[16] - Net profit margin for the year ended 31 March 2024 is 5.8%, with a full year dividend payout ratio of 92.9%[16] - Revenue increased by 14.8% to HK$108,713 million in FY2024[30] - Core operating profit (COP) grew by 28.9% to HK$12,163 million, with an operating margin of 11.2%[30] - Profit attributable to shareholders rose by 20.7% to HK$6,499 million, with earnings per share of HK$0.65[30] - The Board proposed a final dividend of HK$0.30 per share, bringing the full-year dividend to HK$0.55 per share, with a payout ratio of 84.6%[30] - Revenue increased by 14.8% to HK$108,713 million in FY2024, with constant exchange rate growth reaching 18.5%[87][88] - Mainland China revenue grew by 9.9%, contributing 82.5% to the Group's total revenue, with constant exchange rate growth of 14.1%[88] - Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets revenue surged by 45.6% due to the recovery in inbound tourism[88] - Gold jewellery and products revenue increased by 22.5%, contributing 82.0% to the Group's revenue, up by 510 basis points[91][92] - Gem-set, platinum, and K-gold jewellery revenue declined by 13.3% due to macroeconomic challenges, but quality jewellery remained favored by customers[92][93] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 90 basis points to 22.8%, partially offset by optimized pricing strategies and rising gold prices[85] - Main operating profit increased by 28.9% to HK$12,163 million, with the operating profit margin rising by 120 basis points to 11.2%[85] - The Group's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 20.7%, despite unrealized losses from gold borrowing due to gold price fluctuations[85] - Core operating profit for FY2024 increased by 28.9% YoY to HK$12,163 million, with a margin of 11.2%[99] - Adjusted gross profit margin decreased by 90 basis points to 22.8% in FY2024, mainly due to higher sales contribution from gold jewellery and wholesale business[104] - Unrealised loss on gold loans amounted to HK$2,489 million as of 31 March 2024, due to timing differences in gold price fluctuations[103] - Revenue for 2HFY2024 increased by 22.9% YoY to HK$59,187 million, while adjusted gross profit rose by 8.5% to HK$12,988 million[98] - Mainland China contributed over 85% of the Group's core operating profit in FY2024[98] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.1% in 2HFY2024[98] - Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.7% in FY2024, partially offset by unrealised losses on gold loans[99] - The Group's core operating profit margin expanded to 12.1% in 1HFY2024, up 2.8 percentage points YoY[98] - Adjusted gross profit for 1HFY2024 increased by 12.9% YoY to HK$11,786 million, with a margin of 23.8%[98] - The average London gold price for FY2024 showed a YoY increase, impacting the Group's gold inventory valuation[105] - SG&A expenses decreased by 2.9% to HK$13,300 million, with the SG&A ratio improving by 230 basis points to 12.2%[107] - Revenue in Mainland China increased by 9.9% to HK$89,698 million, with wholesale revenue growing by 15.1% (19.6% on a constant exchange rate basis)[108] - The company had 5,679 franchised CHOW TAI FOOK JEWELLERY POS as of 31 March 2024, contributing approximately 63% of wholesale revenue in Mainland China[109] - SSSG of gold jewellery and products was strong at 6.4%, with ASP increasing to HK$5,600 (FY2023: HK$5,200)[112] - ASP of gem-set jewellery increased to approximately HK$8,100 (FY2023: HK$7,600)[113] - Adjusted gross profit margin decreased by 80 basis points in FY2024, primarily due to higher sales contribution from wholesale business and gold jewellery and products[115] - Wholesale business mix increase led to a 70 basis points drop in adjusted gross profit margin, while gold jewellery and products revenue mix surged to 82.5% (FY2023: 77.8%)[115] - Core operating profit increased by 23.4% in 1HFY2024 and 16.1% in 2HFY2024, with core operating profit margin improving by 2.5 percentage points in 1HFY2024[114] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 80 basis points in FY2024, primarily due to the increased contribution from wholesale business and gold jewelry sales, which offset the improvement in retail product gross margin[116] - Wholesale business gross margin is lower than retail. In FY2024, the increased wholesale mix led to a 70 basis points decline in adjusted gross margin. The surge in gold jewelry demand pushed its revenue mix to 82.5% (FY2023: 77.8%), resulting in a 120 basis points decline in adjusted gross margin[116] - SG&A ratio was 11.4% for the period ended 31 March 2024, with fixed expenses contributing around 50% to SG&A expenses in FY2024 (FY2023: approximately 45%)[116][117] - Core operating profit margin increased by 90 basis points to 11.7% in FY2024[116] - Staff costs and related expenses decreased slightly by 0.3% in FY2024, with fixed component increasing 3.8% YoY due to annual salary increments, while the variable component decreased 3.9% due to adjustments in back-office staff remuneration[117][118] - Concessionaire fees ratio declined to 7.7% due to a shift in sales mix towards gold jewelry and products, which generally have lower concessionaire rates[120] - Lease-related expenses ratio decreased slightly by 30 basis points during FY2024[120] - Total retail points (POS) for Chow Tai Fook Jewelry in Mainland China increased to 7,403 as of 31 March 2024, with a net addition of 143 stores during FY2024[122] - Overall retail sales value (RSV) increased by 17.3% YoY in FY2024, driven by a 23.3% increase in gold jewelry and products, while gem-set, platinum, and K-gold jewelry RSV declined by 5.9%[123] - E-commerce RSV grew by 18.8% YoY in FY2024, contributing to the overall RSV growth across all channels[126] - Brick-and-mortar stores accounted for approximately 95% of the company's RSV in Mainland China during FY2024[127] - Mainland e-commerce RSV grew by around 20% in FY2024, with e-commerce share of retail sales volume exceeding 10% and ASP increasing to HK$2,080 (FY2023: HK$1,870)[127] - RSV YoY growth in Tier I cities was +17.7%, Tier II cities +18.1%, Tier III cities +15.5%, and Tier IV cities +17.7% in FY2024[129] - Franchised POS RSV in Mainland China increased by 23.4% YoY in FY2024, with franchised stores comprising approximately 77% of the total store count[133] - The company opened a net of 143 CHOW TAI FOOK JEWELLERY POS in Mainland China during FY2024, primarily in franchised format and located in shopping malls[132] - Stores aged less than two years contributed approximately 65% of overall Mainland RSV per Same Store in FY2024, the highest level in recent years[135] - 2HFY2024 contributed approximately 55% of annual SSS, reflecting normal seasonality post-pandemic[137] - Shopping mall RSV grew by +21.0% YoY in FY2024, with a net increase of 167 POS[131] - Retail revenue surged by 40.4% in FY2024, driven by the return of Mainland tourists, while wholesale revenue increased by 85.6% due to the rebound of duty-free business in Hainan Province[140] - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) in Hong Kong and Macau climbed 42.4% in FY2024, with gold jewellery and products leading at 67.7% SSS growth, supported by a 17.3% increase in ASP to HK$8,100[142] - Adjusted gross profit margin decreased by 130 basis points to 24.4% in FY2024, primarily due to higher sales contribution from gold jewellery and products[146] - Core operating profit escalated by 153.7% to HK$1,654 million in FY2024, with the corresponding margin rising 370 basis points to 8.7%[146] - SG&A ratio decreased by 570 basis points to 16.4% in FY2024, benefiting from favorable operating leverage[146] - Staff costs and related expenses increased by 9.4% in FY2024, but the ratio dropped by 250 basis points to 8.7% due to faster revenue growth[151] - Lease-related expenses increased by 15.3% in FY2024, with the ratio decreasing by 100 basis points to 4.1%[152] - Fixed staff costs rose by 8.7% year-on-year, driven by revisions to staff remuneration packages, while variable staff costs increased by 12.3% due to higher retail revenue[151] - Total retail points increased from 133 in FY2022 to 145 in FY2024, with a net addition of 10 points[155] - RSV (Retail Sales Value) in Hong Kong and Macau surged by 32.0% and 53.2% respectively in FY2024, driven by the recovery of inbound tourism[161][162] - RSV in other markets jumped 118.9% in FY2024, supported by new store openings and strong demand in duty-free shops in Hainan and Southeast Asia[161][162] - Gold jewellery and products saw a significant RSV YoY increase of 69.4%, with weight-based gold products accounting for 84.7% of RSV in FY2024[157][160] - Gem-set, platinum, and K-gold jewellery experienced a RSV YoY decline of 3.7%, while watches saw a 7.0% decrease[157] - Diamond jewellery's share of RSV decreased from 71.0% in FY2023 to 64.4% in FY2024, while other gem-set jewellery increased from 15.5% to 20.2%[158] - Other income decreased by 6.0% YoY to HK$690 million in FY2024, primarily due to lower government grants and commission income[168] - Net foreign exchange loss increased by 4.0% YoY to HK$330 million in FY2024, driven by RMB depreciation[169] - Finance costs on gold loans rose by 41.8% YoY to HK$357 million in FY2024, reflecting higher borrowing costs[170] - Taxation increased by 8.4% YoY to HK$2,121 million in FY2024, driven by higher taxable profits[170] - Bank interest income decreased by 19.6% in FY2024 due to relatively lower average bank deposit balances[171] - Finance costs on gold loans increased by 41.8% in FY2024 due to higher average gold loan outstanding by weight[171] - Net profit margin increased to 6.1%, and ROE rose by 820 basis points to 24.7%[172] - Inventory balances (excluding packaging materials) increased by 9.2% to HK$64,593 million as of 31 March 2024[176][177] - Inventory turnover period reduced by 20 days compared to FY2023, reaching 204 days when excluding franchisee-held inventory[176][177] - Franchised POS held approximately HK$16,535 million or 25.6% of total inventory balances as of 31 March 2024[176][177] - Total borrowings increased by HK$7,683 million, with gold loans rising by HK$9,402 million to HK$24,488 million[178] - Bank deposits and cash equivalents decreased by HK$4,039 million to HK$7,695 million as of 31 March 2024[178] - Net debt increased by HK$11,721 million to HK$20,928 million, representing 78.2% of total equity[178] - RMB depreciation negatively impacted the company's profit due to translation differences between spot and closing exchange rates[183] - Revenue YoY change increased by 14.8% as reported and 18.5% on a constant exchange rate basis for the year ended 31 March 2024[186] - Core operating profit YoY change increased by 28.9% as reported and 33.1% on a constant exchange rate basis for the year ended 31 March 2024[186] - Changes in inventory balances increased by 9.0% as reported and 11.4% on a constant exchange rate basis for the year ended 31 March 2024[186] - Changes in bank deposits and cash equivalents decreased by 34.4% as reported and 31.9% on a constant exchange rate basis for the year ended 31 March 2024[186] - Operating cash flows before movements in working capital increased to HK$15,491 million for the year ended 31 March 2024, up from HK$11,619 million in 2023[188] - Capital expenditure for FY2024 amounted to HK$963 million, a decrease from HK$1,982 million in FY2023[190] - Dividends paid increased to HK$12,538 million for the year ended 31 March 2024, up from HK$5,079 million in 2023[188] - Net cash used in inventories decreased to HK$829 million for the year ended 31 March 2024, down from HK$6,304 million in 2023[188] - Pro forma free cash flows increased to HK$11,064 million for the year ended 31 March 2024, up from HK$6,174 million in 2023[188] - The Group did not have any material contingent liabilities as at 31 March 2024 and 31 March 2023[191] Market and Regional Performance - Revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets climbed 45.6% year-on-year due to recovery in inbound tourism[9] - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) in Mainland China was +1.8%[14] - Net movement in retail points (POS) in Mainland China was +143, totaling 7,403 stores[14] - Revenue growth in other markets was +42.4%[14] - Mainland China same-store sales growth (SSSG) was 31.9% in 2021, compared to (15.1)% in 2020 and 11.1% in 2022[20] - Mainland China retail sales volume increased from 12,699,000 units in 2020 to 23,774,000 units in 2023[20] - Hong Kong & Macau SSSG showed a significant recovery, reaching 24.7% in 2022 and 18.3% in 2023, compared to (38.7)% in 2020[20] - Total retail points expanded from 3,978 in 2020 to 7,646 in 2023, with Mainland China accounting for 7,510 of the total in 2023[20] - In Mainland China, the company remains confident in the jewellery market due to supportive policies and the Guochao trend, with a GDP growth target of around 5%[35] - In Hong Kong and Macau, store traffic increased, but spending remained prudent, prompting efforts to enhance customer experience across omni-channel touchpoints[35] - The company anticipates opportunities in Southeast Asia from the rising middle class and economic growth, with plans to strategically expand the retail network[36] - SSS (Same Store Sales) in Mainland China increased by 1.8%, while franchised POS sales grew by 7.4% due to the steady ramp-up of younger stores[94] - SSS in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 42.4%, with Hong Kong and Macau individually growing by 40.0% and 50.9% respectively[95] - Mainland China contributed over 85% of the Group's core operating profit in FY2024[98] - The company had 5,679 franchised CHOW TAI FOOK JEWELLERY POS as of 31 March 2024, contributing approximately 63% of wholesale revenue in Mainland China[109] - Total retail points (POS) for Chow Tai Fook Jewelry in Mainland China increased to 7,403 as of 31 March 2024, with a net addition of 143 stores during FY2024[122] - Overall retail sales value (RSV) increased by 17.3% YoY in FY2024, driven by a 23.3% increase in gold jewelry and products, while gem-set, platinum, and K-gold jewelry RSV declined by 5.9%[123] - E-commerce RSV grew by 18.8% YoY in FY2024, contributing to the overall RSV growth across all channels[126] - Brick-and-mortar stores accounted for approximately 95% of the company's RSV in Mainland China during FY2024

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 周大福(1929.HK)FY2024 年报点评：业绩符 公司研究 合预期，核心利润增长 28.9% [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年6月19日 [T周ab大le福_S(to1c9k2A9n.dHRKan)k ] [Table_Summary] 投资评级 事件：公司发布FY2024年度业绩，实现营收1087.13亿港元，同增14.8%， 固定汇率下增长18.5%；实现核心利润121.63亿港元，同增28.9%，股东 上次评级 应占溢利 64.99 亿港元，同增 20.7%。FY2024 每股盈利 0.65 港元，建议 派发末期股息每股0.30港元，全年每股派息0.55港元，全年派息率84.6%。 [T刘ab嘉le仁_A u社th零or&]美 护首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110002 点评： 联系电话：15000310173 中国大陆实现营收896.98亿港元，同比增长9.9%，固定汇率下增长14.1%。 邮 箱：liujiaren@cindasc.com 分渠道来看，其中直营/加盟分别增长3.6 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 周大福(1929.HK)FY2024 年报点评：业绩符 公司研究 合预期，核心利润增长 28.9% [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年6月19日 [T周ab大le福_S(to1c9k2A9n.dHRKan)k ] [Table_Summary] 投资评级 事件：公司发布FY2024年度业绩，实现营收1087.13亿港元，同增14.8%， 固定汇率下增长18.5%；实现核心利润121.63亿港元，同增28.9%，股东 上次评级 应占溢利 64.99 亿港元，同增 20.7%。FY2024 每股盈利 0.65 港元，建议 派发末期股息每股0.30港元，全年每股派息0.55港元，全年派息率84.6%。 [T刘ab嘉le仁_A u社th零or&]美 护首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110002 点评： 联系电话：15000310173 中国大陆实现营收896.98亿港元，同比增长9.9%，固定汇率下增长14.1%。 邮 箱：liujiaren@cindasc.com 分渠道来看，其中直营/加盟分别增长3.6 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 究 周 大福(1929) [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 黄金产品定价策略调整，利润率可期 [当 Ta前bl价e_格Cu :r (P港ri元ce] ) 9.46 ——周大福 FY2024 业绩点评 [Table_Date] 2024.06.16 海 [table_A ut刘ho越rs]男 (分析师) 苏颖(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38038344 外 liuyuenan@gtjas.com suying@gtjas.com [ 交Ta易ble数_M据ar ket] 公 登 记编号 S0880516030003 S0880522110001 52周内股价区间(港元) 9.41-15.44 司 当前股本(百万股) 9,988 本 报告导读： 当 前市值(百万港元) 94,484 （ FY2024收入表现符合预期，利润端弱于预期，主要由于黄金借贷未变现亏损影响；考 中 虑到金价上行存货增值及部分黄金产 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 周大福（01929） 证券研究报告 2024年06月 16日 投资评级 金价上涨致同店承压，全年谨慎乐观 行业 非必需性消费/专业零 售 公司发布FY24年报 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 8.62港元 FY24 全年营收 1087 亿港币，同增 15%，剔除汇率因素后同增 19%；归母 目标价格 港元 净利65亿港币，同增21%。 分地区看，FY24 内地营收897 亿港币，同增9.9%（占总83%），港澳及其 基本数据 他营收190 亿港币，同增 46%（占总17%）；分产品看，FY24 黄金类营收 港股总股本(百万股) 9,987.74 同增22.5%（占总82%）；镶嵌类营收同减13.3%（占总13.4%）。 港股总市值(百万港元) 86,094.29 分渠道看（内地），FY24批发营收同增15.1%（占总47%）；零售同增3.6% 每股净资产(港元) 2.57 （占总35.5%），其中电商量价齐升，销售值同增18.8%，均价2080港币， 资产负债率(%) 69.89 同增210港币，对总零售销售值贡献4.8%，对总零售销售量贡献11.6%。 一 年内最高/最低 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 公 司 研 周大福（01929.HK） FY2024 经营业绩稳健增长，中期转型提升品牌力 究 2024年06月15日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn luozheng@kysec.cn 日期 2024/6/14 证 书编号：S0790519110001 证书编号：S0790524040008 港 当前股价(港元) 8.620  事件：公司2024财年营收同比+14.8%，归母净利润同比+20.7%，稳健增长 股 一年最高最低(港元) 15.480/8.470 公司发布年报：FY2024实现营收1087.13亿港元（同比+14.8%，下同）、归母净 公 司 总市值(亿港元) 860.94 利润 64.99 亿港元（+20.7%），经营业绩恢复稳健增长。考虑居民消费信心仍在 信 流通市值(亿港元) 860.94 恢复，我们下调公司 2025-2026 财年盈利预测并新增 2027 财年盈利预测，预计 息 总股本(亿股) 99.88 2025-2027财年归母净利润为72.76（-16.78）/81.7 ...

周大福（1929.HK）FY2024年报点评 24 财年归母净利同比+21%，期待利润率持续提升 2024年06月15日 ➢ 事件概述。周大福发布FY2024财年业绩公告及24年4月1日至5月31 推荐 维持评级 日主要经营数据。FY2024，集团实现营业额1087.13亿港元，同比+14.82%， 实现归母净利润64.99亿港元，同比+20.71%，主要经营溢利率同比+1.2 pct至 当前价格： 8.62港元 11.2%。2024财年全年派发股息0.55港元/股，全年派息率达84.6%。 ➢ 黄金产品与加盟渠道收入增速较快，分区域同店增速稳健提升。1）分地区 看：FY24，受节日需求驱动及新开门店店效稳步提升推动，中国内地实现营收 [T able_Author] 896.98 亿港元，同比+9.9%，占总营收比例为 82.5%；受益于入境旅游的持续 复苏，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场实现营收190.15亿港元，同比+45.6%， 占总营收比例为17.5%。2）分产品看（不含珠宝贸易及来自加盟商的服务收入）： FY24，珠宝镶嵌、铂金及K金首饰收入同比-13.3%，黄金首饰及产品收入同比 +22.5%，收入 ...