Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Market Industry Overview - The gold and jewelry market in Henan experienced a significant slowdown in growth, with an increase of only 3.6% in October 2025, compared to 30%-50% in previous months. This slowdown is attributed to a 50% rise in gold prices and uncertainty surrounding tax reforms, particularly affecting the capital city, Zhengzhou, due to low wedding demand [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tax Reform**: The tax reform primarily targets investment gold bars, with upstream factories currently invoicing at a 13% VAT, leading to an increase of 70 RMB per gram in upstream costs, resulting in retail prices exceeding 1,200 RMB per gram. Domestic brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao allow the exchange of old materials, mitigating cost pressures compared to Hong Kong brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji, which do not allow such exchanges [1][5]. - **Sales Performance**: In November, overall sales performance was poor due to the off-season, with a 6.3% increase in monetary sales but a 24.6% decline in inventory weight. Lao Feng Xiang showed the best performance with a 12.6% year-on-year growth, while Chow Tai Fook reported a sales figure of 2.27 billion RMB due to software issues [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The investment gold bars account for about 3% of the market, with most sales still focused on jewelry. The proportion of fixed-price products has increased, with Chow Tai Fook at 35.7% in Henan, while other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao are lower at 10-12% [3][10]. - **Inventory and Supply Chain**: There was a 20% decline in inventory in November, influenced by gold price fluctuations, rumors of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, and uncertainties from tax reforms. Many brands reduced their purchase volumes due to cash flow issues caused by rising gold prices [11]. - **Government Regulation**: The government may enhance regulations on the recovery and trading of old materials and require upstream factories to purchase raw materials from the Shanghai Gold Exchange to reduce tax evasion [7]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: Consumers are primarily feeling the impact of rising gold prices. However, with increased transparency regarding potential tax increases, their initial wait-and-see attitude has eased, and wedding demand remains a significant factor [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Brand Strategies**: Major brands are reducing pressure on franchisees and developing IP series and high-end products to increase margins. Approximately 70% of purchases from leading brands are now series or IP products, which helps differentiate them from lower-end brands [12][13]. - **Future Expectations**: The willingness of consumers to spend in 2026 will depend on the clarity of tax policies. If the government clarifies that only investment gold bars will be taxed, it could significantly lower costs for franchisees and boost confidence in purchasing [17]. - **Franchisee Challenges**: Franchisees are currently facing challenges due to high tax burdens and are reducing inventory in anticipation of price corrections and tax policy changes. Many are also experiencing cash flow issues due to high inventory costs [15][16]. - **Brand Goals for 2026**: Brands are discussing their targets for 2026 with franchisees, with many facing declining sales targets due to store closures and high tax burdens. For instance, Lao Miao has projected a nearly 20% decline in order volume for 2025 [18].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Dec 2025 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 11 月 26 日，周大福珠宝集团发布 2026 财年中期业绩报告并召开业绩会。 周大福 Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) 1HFY26 同店与 ASP 改善，管理层维持 FY26 收入指引 Same-Store Sales and ASP Improve in 1HFY26, Management Maintains FY26 Revenue Guidance 1HFY26收入小幅承压，公司通过费用优化实现营运利润率与股东回报双稳健。周大福自FY2025起变更了会计准则， 在现行会计结构下，周大福的黄金借贷公允价值变动已从"销售成本"重分类至"其 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and a modest increase in net profit for FY2026H1, with revenue at HKD 38.986 billion, down 1.1% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 2.534 billion, up 0.2% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales showed a positive turnaround in FY2026Q2, with a growth rate of 4.1% compared to a decline of 1.9% in FY2026Q1 [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 85.7% [1] Revenue Breakdown - For FY2026H1, the revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, while the revenue from gold jewelry and watches decreased by 3.8% and 10.6%, respectively [1] - The revenue contribution from priced jewelry, gold jewelry, and watches was 29.6%, 65.2%, and 5.2%, respectively [1] Market Performance - In FY2026H1, the revenue from mainland China accounted for 82.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5% [2] - Franchise revenue decreased by 10.2%, while retail revenue increased by 8.1%, with same-store sales for franchises and direct stores growing by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively [2] - The number of jewelry stores in mainland China decreased by 611 to 5,663, with significant closures in wholesale and retail channels [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was 30.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of gold price increases [3] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 14.7%, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios showing slight variations [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, with expected net profits of HKD 8.131 billion, HKD 8.980 billion, and HKD 9.547 billion, respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same periods are projected to be HKD 0.82, HKD 0.91, and HKD 0.97, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [3]

周大福近期发布的截至2025年9月30日止6个月中期业绩显示，该公司取得营业额389.86亿港元，同比减 少1.07%；公司股东应占溢利25.34亿港元，同比增加0.16%。周大福方面表示，集团对内地同店表现的 持续改善感到鼓舞，进一步印证门店优化的成效。内地直营零售点的同店销售上升2.6%。另外，按同 店计算，加盟零售点销售增长4.8%。期内，香港及澳门同店销售上升4.4%，主要由零售消费气氛回暖 及人流回升所推动。香港同店销售上升1.8%，澳门则增长13.7%。 周大福(01929)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.66%，报14.15港元，成交额1.83亿港元。 消息面上，里昂研报指出，周大福2026财年上半财年销售额和利润略低于市场共识，但同店销售额增长 指引维持不变，且盈利能力指引被上调；预测2026财年销售额及净利润同比增长3%、40%，毛利率及 营业利润率分别为30.6%、18%。里昂将周大福12个月目标价从12港元升至13港元，维持12个月前瞻市 盈率12倍不变；并预计周大福下一个旺季(新年、春节和情人节)的销售表现对股价至关重要。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周大福(01929)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.66%，报14.15港元，成交额1.83亿港元。 周大福近期发布的截至2025年9月30日止6个月中期业绩显示，该公司取得营业额389.86亿港元，同比减 少1.07%；公司股东应占溢利25.34亿港元，同比增加0.16%。周大福方面表示，集团对内地同店表现的 持续改善感到鼓舞，进一步印证门店优化的成效。内地直营零售点的同店销售上升2.6%。另外，按同 店计算，加盟零售点销售增长4.8%。期内，香港及澳门同店销售上升4.4%，主要由零售消费气氛回暖 及人流回升所推动。香港同店销售上升1.8%，澳门则增长13.7%。 消息面上，里昂研报指出，周大福2026财年上半财年销售额和利润略低于市场共识，但同店销售额增长 指引维持不变，且盈利能力指引被上调；预测2026财年销售额及净利润同比增长3%、40%，毛利率及 营业利润率分别为30.6%、18%。里昂将周大福12个月目标价从12港元升至13港元，维持12个月前瞻市 盈率12倍不变；并预计周大福下一个旺季(新年、春节和情人节)的销售表现对股价至关重要。 ...

里昂发布研报称，周大福(01929)2026财年上半财年销售额和利润略低于市场共识，但同店销售额增长 指引维持不变，且盈利能力指引被上调;预测2026财年销售额及净利润同比增长3%、40%，毛利率及营 业利润率分别为30.6%、18%。里昂将周大福12个月目标价从12港元升至13港元，维持12个月前瞻市盈 率12倍不变;并预计周大福下一个旺季(新年、春节和情人节)的销售表现对股价至关重要。 该行又将周大福2026至2028财年预测销售额、净利润预测分别上调1%至2%、8%，以反映指引上调及中 期前景的改善;并认为在金价持续上涨及中国内地竞争激烈的风险下，为周大福的同店销售增长前景蒙 上阴影。 ...

该行又将周大福2026至2028财年预测销售额、净利润预测分别上调1%至2%、8%，以反映指引上调及中 期前景的改善;并认为在金价持续上涨及中国内地竞争激烈的风险下，为周大福的同店销售增长前景蒙 上阴影。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，周大福(01929)2026财年上半财年销售额和利润略低于市场共识， 但同店销售额增长指引维持不变，且盈利能力指引被上调;预测2026财年销售额及净利润同比增长3%、 40%，毛利率及营业利润率分别为30.6%、18%。里昂将周大福12个月目标价从12港元升至13港元，维 持12个月前瞻市盈率12倍不变;并预计周大福下一个旺季(新年、春节和情人节)的销售表现对股价至关重 要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais raises Chow Tai Fook's 12-month target price from HKD 12 to HKD 13, maintaining a forward P/E ratio of 12 times, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the upcoming peak sales season [1] Summary by Categories Sales and Profit Forecast - Credit Lyonnais has adjusted its sales and net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, increasing sales estimates by 1% to 2% and net profit estimates by 8%, reflecting improved guidance and mid-term outlook [1] Market Conditions - The upcoming peak sales season, which includes New Year, Spring Festival, and Valentine's Day, is deemed crucial for Chow Tai Fook's stock price performance [1] - The report highlights concerns regarding same-store sales growth prospects due to rising gold prices and intense competition in mainland China [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01929 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 9,864,944,600 | | 422,800 | | | 9,865,367,400 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 9,864,944,600 | | 422,800 | | | 9,865,367,400 | 公司名稱: 周大福珠寶集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本 ...

Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's (01929.HK) performance for the first half of the fiscal year 2026 (April 1 to September 30, 2025) fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price on November 26, with a decline of over 7% during trading [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the fiscal year was HKD 38.99 billion, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-on-year, which was below the market estimate of HKD 40.19 billion [2] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was HKD 2.534 billion, showing only a 0.1% increase compared to the same period last year, also missing the analyst forecast of HKD 2.63 billion [2] - Chow Tai Fook's gross profit margin narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 30.5% year-on-year, attributed to limited increases in gold prices affecting retail product margins [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - High gold prices have led to a noticeable change in consumer purchasing behavior, with customers showing hesitation in buying heavier gold products and preferring lower-priced jewelry or affordable alternatives [2] - The revenue structure reflects this trend, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in revenue from priced jewelry, while revenue from gold jewelry based on weight declined by 3.8% [2] Policy Environment - Concerns regarding Chow Tai Fook are also linked to changes in the policy environment, particularly the cancellation of gold tax incentives on November 1, which may increase consumer costs for gold and pressure retail margins [3] Management Outlook - Despite facing short-term challenges, Chow Tai Fook's management remains optimistic about a recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, raising the gross profit margin guidance to 31% to 32% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Analysts from institutions like Bank of America believe that the worst period for same-store sales growth may have passed, and business transformation efforts are expected to support profit recovery [3]