Core Viewpoint - The gold retail market is experiencing a dichotomy, with rising gold prices leading to increased demand for investment gold bars while traditional gold jewelry sales are declining due to high prices and changing consumer behavior [4][12][16]. Gold Price Movement - On November 8, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.28%. Spot gold also saw a daily increase of over 1%, reaching $3997.63 per ounce [1]. - COMEX silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 0.13% [3]. Retail Market Dynamics - Despite rising gold prices, jewelry stores are facing challenges, with many brands, including Chow Tai Fook, closing stores due to poor performance. As of September 30, Chow Tai Fook had 6041 retail points, down from 6644 in March, with a significant reduction in mainland China [6][8]. - In the third quarter, Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales in mainland China and Hong Kong fell by 8.6% and 10.0%, respectively [9]. Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a decline in retail points and same-store sales, while its competitor, Luk Fook, also saw a reduction in store numbers but experienced a revenue increase due to higher average selling prices driven by rising gold prices [10][11]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Chow Tai Fook's revenue decreased by 37.35%, but its overall gross margin improved to 29.74% due to product mix optimization [9]. Impact of Tax Policy - The new gold tax policy implemented on November 1 is expected to further pressure the retail market, with costs for non-investment gold enterprises increasing due to reduced input tax deductions [15][16]. - Following the tax policy, gold prices surged, with Chow Tai Fook's price per gram rising from 1198 to 1265 yuan within a few days [15]. E-commerce Growth - E-commerce has emerged as a growth area for several gold jewelry companies, with Chow Tai Fook and others reporting significant increases in online sales. For instance, Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce revenue grew by 28.72% compared to the previous year [17][19]. - The shift to e-commerce is driven by consumer preference for lower-priced, lightweight gold products, which are more competitive online due to lower processing fees [19].

Group 1 - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, has caused significant changes in the gold market, affecting both banking operations and gold jewelry prices [1] - Banks have adjusted their gold accumulation services, with some halting the withdrawal of physical gold bars, while account-based services remain largely unaffected [3] - Despite the temporary suspension of certain services, demand for physical gold bars remains high, leading to rapid sales on banking apps [3] Group 2 - Individuals selling used gold jewelry are generally exempt from value-added tax, but frequent and large-scale sales may be classified as business activities, incurring a 3% tax [4] - Retail prices for gold jewelry are expected to rise due to the new regulations, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang already increasing prices [4] - The new tax policy will reduce input tax deductions for non-investment gold jewelry companies, potentially increasing their costs [5] Group 3 - Consumers are advised to purchase gold bars from Shanghai Gold Exchange member units to avoid the impacts of the new policy, as these transactions are less affected and offer more transparent pricing [7] - For gold jewelry purchases, consumers should compare price increases across brands to avoid overpaying due to policy-induced price hikes [7] - Individuals should be cautious when selling large amounts of used gold jewelry to assess potential tax risks [7]

近半年来，每当金价突破历史高点，我们总能看到"抢购黄金"的新闻。 智通财经记者 杨睿贤 王亚赛 图源：公开报道 似乎金价越涨、金店生意越红火。 然而，在现实生活中，金价暴涨，金店的生意却没有那么好做，尤其是对于三四线城市的加盟店来说，金价的持续攀升，带来的往往不是狂欢，而是更惨 淡的生意和关店的抉择。 世界黄金协会的数据显示，作为"金饰消费"的黄金需求自去年四季度以来明显萎缩，全球需求量从单季度548.7吨下降至371吨。而以投资为目的的"黄金 ETF及类似产品"需求则从18.7吨爆发性增长至221.7吨，激增10.86倍。这意味着，市场的热闹属于投资者，而非金店与金饰消费者。值得注意的是，就在 投资需求如此火爆之际，11月1日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》，黄金交易税收新规落地。 从头部金店披露的最新财报中，我们也能直观感受到金价大涨后的金店生意不好做。 关店潮起，周大福一年关店近千家 根据周大福2025年报显示，其中国内地零售点从2021年的4,452家连年增长至2024年的7,407家，在2025年净关闭905家门店，缩水至6,501家，日均关店2.5 家，结束了此前连续多年的扩张 ...

#金价暴涨但金店生意没有更好做#【#周大福一年关店近千家# 】近半年来，每当金价突破历史高点， 总能看到"抢购黄金"的新闻。似乎金价越涨、金店生意越红火。然而，现实生活中，金价暴涨，金店的 生意却没有那么好做，尤其是对于三四线城市的加盟店来说，金价的持续攀升，带来的往往不是狂欢， 而是更惨淡的生意和关店的抉择。根据周大福2025年报显示，其中国内地零售点从2021年的4,452家连 年增长至2024年的7,407家，在2025年净关闭905家门店，缩水至6,501家，日均关店2.5家，结束了此前 连续多年的扩张。 (智通财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to regulate the gold market by mandating that investment gold transactions occur through official exchanges, while consumer gold must be purchased through compliant retail channels [1][3]. Industry Impact - The announcement will disrupt the traditional processing structure of the gold industry, affecting all players from upstream processors to downstream retailers and consumers [3][6]. - The policy allows buyers who purchase standard gold through exchanges to be exempt from value-added tax (VAT), while those who do not must pay a 13% VAT, significantly impacting profit margins for non-compliant businesses [4][6]. Transformation of the Supply Chain - The tax reform is expected to accelerate the industry's shift towards standardization and centralization, particularly impacting upstream processing operations that previously relied on informal channels to minimize tax liabilities [6][8]. - The requirement for all investment gold to be traded through national exchanges will enhance transparency and traceability, reducing tax evasion and illegal circulation [6][8]. Retail Market Dynamics - Retail costs are anticipated to rise, leading to a potential closure of around 30% of small franchise stores in lower-tier cities, while luxury brands may remain less affected due to their focus on cultural and aesthetic value rather than material costs [7][9]. - The traditional low-price model of certain merchants is under threat, as compliance costs and VAT will eliminate their competitive pricing advantage [7][8]. Consumer Price Effects - Following the announcement, gold jewelry prices have increased significantly, with major brands raising prices by over 5% within days, leading to consumer concerns about affordability [11][13]. - The price of gold bars has also risen, making bank purchases of investment gold a more attractive option for consumers [13][14]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to evolve into a clearer distinction between investment and consumer gold, promoting a healthier and more regulated environment [14]. - The shift may lead to a consolidation of smaller players who cannot adapt to the new regulations, while larger firms that can comply will thrive [8][14].

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices has not translated into increased business for gold retailers, particularly in lower-tier cities, where the reality is more challenging than the headlines suggest [1] Company Summary - Chow Tai Fook's retail points in mainland China increased from 4,452 in 2021 to 7,407 in 2024, but the company plans to close 905 stores in 2025, reducing the total to 6,501 [1] - The average number of store closures is 2.5 per day, marking the end of a period of continuous expansion for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Leading gold brands are shifting their focus from physical store expansion to enhancing e-commerce channels due to declining terminal sales and changing consumer behavior [2][3]. Group 1: Store Network and Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a reduction in its retail network, with over 70% of its retail points being franchise stores, totaling 6,041 locations, down from 6,644 as of March 31, representing a decrease of 603 stores [2]. - The most significant decline occurred in the mainland market, where retail points fell to 5,663, a reduction of 611 stores since March [2]. - The company continues to close underperforming stores while selectively opening new ones with higher productivity [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The shift from expansion to quality improvement poses challenges, including short-term revenue fluctuations, employee placement costs, and restructuring relationships with franchisees [3]. - The closure of stores primarily involves franchise locations, indicating a strategic adjustment to optimize channel structure and enhance overall operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: E-commerce Growth and Consumer Behavior - High gold prices, weak consumer demand, and intensified competition have pressured the profitability of inefficient stores, leading franchisees to consider exiting the market [4]. - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have adopted "high-quality growth" strategies, focusing on single-store efficiency rather than quantity expansion [4]. - E-commerce channels are experiencing significant growth, reflecting a shift in consumer trust from physical stores to brand official flagship stores, particularly for standardized products and IP collaborations [4]. - While e-commerce growth is promising, there remain essential in-store experiences such as trying on products, value retention, and after-sales service that cannot be replaced, leading brands to pursue an "online drive + offline experience" integrated approach rather than large-scale store closures [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of leading gold brands towards e-commerce channels in response to declining terminal sales and the closure of underperforming physical stores [3][4]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Chow Tai Fook reported a reduction in retail points, with a total of 6,041 stores as of September 30, 2025, down from 6,644 in March, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing store performance [3]. - The company is closing underperforming stores while selectively opening new ones with higher productivity, reflecting a strategic adjustment to enhance overall operational efficiency [4]. - The relationship between leading gold brands and franchisees is characterized as "principal-agent," where the closure of stores primarily involves franchisees, indicating a proactive strategic adjustment by the brand [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in foot traffic in first-tier city commercial areas has led to a structural dilemma for gold jewelry stores, where traditional reliance on location-based traffic is no longer effective [4]. - The high volatility of gold prices, combined with weak consumer demand and intensified competition, has pressured the profitability of inefficient stores, prompting franchisees to exit the market [4]. Group 3: E-commerce Growth - The explosive growth of e-commerce channels reflects a "trust migration" among consumers, who are increasingly relying on brand official flagship stores instead of physical stores for high-end gold jewelry purchases [5]. - E-commerce helps gold brands reduce dependence on high-rent physical stores, thereby lowering fixed costs and enhancing inventory turnover and customer repurchase rates through data-driven marketing [5]. - Despite the impressive growth of e-commerce, physical stores remain essential for aspects like trying on products, value retention, and after-sales service, leading brands to pursue an "online-to-offline" integration strategy rather than large-scale store closures [5].

Core Insights - The gold and diamond retail sector is experiencing short-term revenue fluctuations due to store closures, employee relocation costs, and restructuring relationships with franchisees following new tax policies [2][7] - Despite significant discounts during the "Double 11" shopping festival, foot traffic in physical stores remains low, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [3][8] Store Performance - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are seeing limited customer traffic even in prime locations, with some stores experiencing no customers for extended periods [2][3] - The price of gold jewelry has increased, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price rising from 1198 CNY per gram on November 2 to 1259 CNY per gram on November 6, reflecting a 5.1% increase [3] Market Trends - The traditional reliance on foot traffic in core business districts is failing as consumer behavior shifts online, leading to a structural dilemma for physical stores [7] - Major brands are reducing their physical store presence while increasing investment in e-commerce channels, with Chow Tai Fook and other brands reporting significant declines in revenue from franchise operations [8][9] E-commerce Growth - E-commerce sales for leading brands are growing rapidly, with Zhou Dasheng reporting a 17.68% increase in online revenue year-on-year, while Chow Tai Fook's online retail value grew by 28.1% [8][10] - The shift to e-commerce reflects a "trust migration" where consumers increasingly trust official brand online stores over physical locations, particularly for standardized products [10] Strategic Adjustments - Leading brands are focusing on "high-quality growth" strategies, emphasizing profitability per store rather than sheer number of locations, leading to a strategic closure of underperforming stores [9] - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming essential, as brands aim to leverage e-commerce for cost reduction while maintaining physical stores for customer experience [10]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, currently trading around $3998, with related gold ETFs also rising [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) has seen a 0.49% increase and has recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, accumulating nearly 248 million yuan [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) has risen by 1.38%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as the multinational gold group, Zijin Mining, and others [1] Group 2 - Online sales of gold have surged, with Tmall reporting a double-digit year-on-year growth in new customer sales for October, and notable increases in online retail values for major brands [1] - Chow Tai Fook's online retail value grew by 28.1% year-on-year in Q3, while Luk Fook's mainland growth of 20% was primarily driven by e-commerce [1] - The "golden coupons" issued during Tmall's Double 11 event have become extremely popular, often being claimed within a minute of release [1] Group 3 - There is an anticipated increase in costs for gold jewelry and physical gold bars, but new regulations exempting VAT for non-physical gold transactions will protect certain channels like gold ETFs and virtual gold from these pressures [2] - The management fee for the China Gold ETF (518850) is 0.15%, with a custody fee of 0.05%, totaling 0.2%, which is the lowest in the sector [3]