摩根大通发表研报指，周大福第三财季的零售值按年增长18%，胜于预期。受惠于产品组合改善、渠道 优化、黄金价格上涨及成本控制等有利因素，公司的利润率表现强劲。管理层亦上调2026财年指引，包 括目标收入升中个位数百分比；同店销售增长中至高个位数；毛利率31.5%至32.5%；经营溢利率约为 20%；及SG&A比率约为13%。考虑到当前金价持续上升，该行认为周大福的利润率前景仍有进一步提 升潜力，将公司2026至28年的盈测上调2至6%，目标价由16.4港元上调至17港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 摩根大通发表研究报告指，周大福(01929.HK)第三财季的零售值按年增长18%，胜预期。另外，受惠于 产品组合改善、渠道优化、黄金价格上涨及成本控制等有利因素，公司的利润率表现强劲。此外，管理 层亦上调2026财年指引。考虑到当前金价持续上升，摩根认为周大福的利润率前景仍有进一步提升潜 力，将公司2026至28年的盈测上调2至6%，目标价由16.4港元上调至17港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

近年来，高企的金价给黄金珠宝行业带来结构性变化。黄金珠宝企业正通过定价模式优化、产品设计创 新、服务体验迭代、品牌形象升级、销售渠道拓展等战略调整以应对挑战、捕捉机遇。 1月6日起，周生生对部分定价类黄金饰品进行调价，单件产品上涨幅度为200元至1500元，主要包括转 运珠、定价联名款以及金镶钻类饰品；1月16日起，潮宏基也对多款"一口价"金饰产品启动新一轮价格 调整。 北京时间1月21日，国际、国内金价再创新高，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金饰品价格亦随之上 调，较高者突破1500元/克关口，刷新历史纪录。 在业内人士看来，黄金珠宝行业正处于全球化扩张与消费结构升级的交汇点。中国黄金珠宝品牌高端化 是中国消费市场发展到一定阶段的必然选择。同时，2026年中国品牌珠宝出海或呈现加速趋势。 金价高企 企业风险管控要求提高 1月21日，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金饰品价格普遍上调，中国黄金价格更是达到1506元/克。不 同品牌调整幅度不一，例如：老庙黄金上海区域价格为1493元/克，单克较前一日上涨38元；周生生价 格为1495元/克，单克较前一日上涨41元；六福珠宝价格为1496元/克，单克较前一日上涨43元 ...

Group 1: Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market valuation is at a historical extreme level, with a pricing deviation indicator of 12.83% as of January 16, 2026, placing it in the 99.9th percentile since 2018 and 2021 [5][6] - The short-term drivers for the elevated valuation include a strong performance in the equity market, which has led to rising convertible bond prices and premium rates, and an influx of funds driven by demand for rights assets [5] - The current valuation is considered high, increasing systemic vulnerability, and investors are advised to be cautious and avoid high-priced and high-premium varieties, focusing instead on the sustainability of the underlying stock fundamentals [5][6] Group 2: Electric Power Equipment Industry - The electric power equipment sector is projected to focus on AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) and electricity shortages as core investment themes for 2026 [7][8] - The sector has outperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of 33.6% compared to a 17.7% rise in the CSI 300 index as of December 31, 2025 [8] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, and Keda, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) solutions and the global electricity construction backdrop [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new home sales down 12.6% year-on-year, and related development investment indicators showing accelerated declines [9] - Predictions for 2026 include a 10% decrease in new construction area to 530 million square meters and a 10.9% drop in real estate development investment to 7.57 trillion yuan [9] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the sector, emphasizing the importance of policy support and the potential for recovery in specific urban markets, particularly first-tier and select second-tier cities [9] Group 4: Textile and Apparel Industry - Chow Tai Fook reported a 17.8% year-on-year increase in retail value for FY2026 Q3, indicating strong same-store sales growth [11][13] - The company is focusing on optimizing product design and channel operations, which is expected to enhance consumer engagement [13] - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 project net profits of 7.575 billion, 8.559 billion, and 9.646 billion HKD respectively, with a PE ratio of 18 times for FY2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [13]

周大福 FY2026Q3 主要经营数据点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 14.12 | 本报告导读： 中国内地高毛利率定价产品占比提升。 同店销售提速，内地定价首饰高增 周大福(1929) [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(港元) | 6.76-16.63 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 9,865 | | 当前市值(百万港元) | 139,299 | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 0% 30% 61% 91% 121% 15 ...

当足金饰品单价逼近每克1500元，传统按克计价的销售模式遭遇价格敏感考验，而以"一口价"模式为代 表、融合古法工艺与文化赋能的黄金饰品，却在年轻消费者中逆势走红。 受黄金市场因素影响，黄金饰品消费受到冲击，不乏部分企业终端门店客流减少，整体销售暂时面临阶 段性压力的情况出现。据中国黄金协会统计数据，2025年前三季度，我国黄金消费量为682.730吨，同 比下降7.95%。其中，黄金首饰为270.036吨，同比下降32.50%。 从老铺黄金门店外排起的长队，到周大福、潮宏基等品牌纷纷跟进推出定价类产品，一场从"重量计 价"到"价值计价"的消费转型正在金饰市场蔓延。与此同时，上游企业则直接受益于金价上涨，盈利有 望充分释放。 ● 本报记者 黄一灵 乔翔 "一口价"黄金产品更受青睐 在上海陆家嘴国金中心商场内的老铺黄金门店，即便是工作日下午的非客流高峰时段，现场依旧人潮涌 动，等待进店的消费者在店外排起长队。"目前排队等候时间大概需要半小时，麻烦耐心等候。需要跟 您说明的是，我们门店现阶段暂无任何促销活动。"该店工作人员一边引导排队秩序，一边向身旁驻足 询问的中国证券报记者解释道。 排队队伍中，一名90后消费者小 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.40, corresponding to a FY27 PE of 22 times [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year for 3QFY26, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) accelerating across regions, particularly in mainland China and Hong Kong [1][2]. - The company is focusing on international expansion, having opened its first new image store in Singapore and planning further expansion into Thailand, Australia, North America, and the Middle East [4]. - The retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China has increased to 40.1%, supporting the resilience of the company's gross margin [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In 3QFY26, the company's retail revenue increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and Hong Kong at 21.4% and 14.3% respectively [1][2]. - The growth was driven by rising gold prices and increased consumer enthusiasm for jewelry, particularly in mainland China [2]. Product and Brand Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products in its signature series, enhancing brand appeal and reaching younger consumers through collaborations, such as the blind box series with Hong Kong Disneyland [3]. - The retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China has risen by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer response to price adjustments [3]. Store Network and Expansion - The company is optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores while opening new image stores, with a net closure of 228 stores in 3QFY26, a slowdown from previous quarters [4]. - The company has initiated international expansion, with plans to establish a retail presence in high-potential markets [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 89.1 billion, and HKD 99.0 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [5][9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 14 times for comparable companies in 2026, with the company positioned as an industry leader benefiting from ongoing same-store sales growth and channel adjustments [5].

1月21日下午，港股上市公司周大福珠宝发布了截至2025年12月31日止三个月（"第三财季"）未经审核主要经营数据。 记者注意到，本季度，周大福定价首 饰（涵盖设计款黄金产品与珠宝镶嵌产品）保持强劲销售增长，该产品类别的零售值增速较前一季度加快，同比增长59.6%。此外，该季度周大福零售值同 比增长17.8%，其中，内地零售值同比增长16.9%，占集团零售值的84.8%；香港、澳门及其他市场零售值增长22.9%，占比15.2%。 深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 吴蕾 季内最引人注目的变化是产品结构的转变。周大福定价首饰的零售值贡献显著扩大至40.1%（2025财年第三季度为29.4%），而计价黄金首饰的贡献降至 56.8%（2025财年第三季度为66.8%），有利于毛利率扩张。更值得关注的是平均售价的大幅提升。在内地市场，定价黄金首饰的平均售价从去年同期的 5200港元猛增至9500港元，增幅高达82.7%。 周大福称，季内，继续稳步推进品牌转型，并专注加强标志性产品系列。同时亦透过开发全新产品进一步吸引年轻客群，包括携手香港迪士尼乐园推出首个 盲盒系列。（受访单位供图） ...

（文/霍东阳 编辑/张广凯） 在金价暴涨的情况下，金饰更火了。 过去数年的财报中，金价单边上行的情况反而会拖垮头部珠宝品牌的业绩表现。但1月21日，周大福发布第三财季经营数据，正在打破这种困境。 在截至2025年12月31日，零售值同比增长17.8%，远超上一季度4.1%的增速。其中，中国内地市场零售值增长16.9%，港澳及其他市场增长22.9%。 业绩增长的背后，是周大福产品结构的根本变化：定价首饰零售值贡献率从29.4%大幅提升至40.1%，而计价黄金首饰的贡献则从66.8%降至56.8%。 基于远超预期的表现，周大福管理层已上调2026财年全年业绩指引，预计收入实现中低单位数增长，毛利率目标提升至31.5%-32.5%，经营利润率目标则接 近20% 这家拥有近百年历史的珠宝巨头正从传统的黄金珠宝销售商，转变为一个文化价值和品牌溢价驱动的全球奢侈品企业。 定价首饰：穿越金价周期的"利润压舱石" 周大福在主要经营数据公告中表示，珠宝消费气氛正在逐步改善。 周大福第三财季业绩的核心特征，是"零售值"增长与"同店销量"下降并存。这揭示了其增长完全由产品结构优化和平均售价提升驱动，而非依赖销售数量。 在截至202 ...

麦格理发布研报称，基于不变2027财年15倍预测市盈率，将周大福(01929)目标价上调5.9%，从18.7港元 升至19.8港元;评级跑赢大市。 周大福中国内地自营店、加盟店同店销售增长从2026年第二财季的7.6%、8.6%，提升至第三财季 21.4%、26.3%;港澳同店销售增长从6.2%上升至14.3%。集团管理层预计，由于基期较高，即将到来的 农历新年同店销售将录得低至中单位数增长;并将全年营收、同店销售增长指引从低单位数、中单位 数，上调至低中单位数、中高单位数。 因产品组合利好、金价上涨及营运杠杆，麦格理将周大福2026至2028财年净利润预测分别上调3.6%、 6%、4.5%;营收预测略微上调0.8%、0.9%、0.9%;毛利率上调1个百分点、0.9个百分点、0.6个百分点;息 税前利润率上调0.3个百分点、0.9个百分点、0.6个百分点。 ...