Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group has been under pressure due to fluctuations in the international gold market, with a notable decline in revenue and store count, prompting the company to adapt its strategies to maintain market share and profitability [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HK$ 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, marking the lowest level in five years [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders remained stable at HK$ 2.534 billion, with earnings per share at HK$ 0.26 [4]. - The overall gross profit margin for the period was 30.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in the mainland China business gross margin [4][5]. Market Trends - The high gold prices are driving consumers towards lighter and smaller products, with small-weight gold products (under 10 grams) accounting for 45% of total gold jewelry sales in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The implementation of a new value-added tax policy starting November 2025 is expected to push manufacturers and retailers to focus on developing high-value products, which typically have better margins [5]. Store Operations - Chow Tai Fook's store count in mainland China decreased by 606 to 5,895, returning to 2022 levels, while the company opened 57 new retail points during the same period [6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channel structure and enhancing the shopping experience through new store formats and high-end locations [6]. Online Business Growth - The online retail value in mainland China increased by 27.6%, accounting for 7.1% of total retail value, with significant growth in the official online store and Douyin platform [7]. - Despite the rapid growth in online sales, the overall scale remains relatively limited, and the sustainability of this growth amidst high competition and costs is yet to be validated [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook discussed in the report [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shown a recovery in same-store sales, with a notable increase in retail value and a positive consumer response despite high gold prices [2]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with a significant increase in the sales of priced jewelry, which has enhanced brand strength [3]. - Continuous optimization of channels and the introduction of new store formats are accelerating the brand transformation [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while sales outside mainland China increased by 6.5% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1%, while the sales of gold jewelry decreased by 5.8% [3]. - The launch of the high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" has demonstrated strong demand, with nearly 200 pieces sold during the promotional event [3]. - The company has also introduced new jadeite designs and collaborated with notable brands to enhance its product offerings [3]. Operational Efficiency - Chow Tai Fook has optimized its store network, closing a net of 611 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY2026 H1 was 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower margins in retail due to gold price fluctuations [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its inventory turnover days to approximately 424 days, a decrease of about 33 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Chow Tai Fook for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.980 billion, HKD 9.110 billion, and HKD 10.296 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7X, 15.5X, and 13.7X [5][6].

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The overall performance for the first half of the fiscal year is stable, with accelerated growth since October. For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April 2025 - September 2025), the company achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, impacted by store strategy contraction and high gold prices affecting product weight. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining overall stability. Since October, the company has seen further acceleration in growth, with retail value increasing by 33.9% year-on-year from October 1 to November 18, and same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The retail revenue in mainland China increased by 8.1%, accounting for 38.4% of total revenue. Wholesale revenue in mainland China decreased by 10.2%, making up 44.2% of total revenue due to overall store contraction and reduced purchasing under high gold prices. Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets grew by 6.5%, accounting for 17.4% of total revenue. The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, representing 29.6% of total revenue, with priced gold performing particularly well [2] Cost Management and Margins - The overall gross margin remained above 30%, at 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduced increase in gold prices compared to the same period last year. The increase in the proportion of priced products positively impacted the gross margin. The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14%, benefiting from cost control optimization. Inventory turnover days shortened by 33 days to 424 days [3] Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company plans to further enhance the layout of high-margin priced products and optimize store structure to boost same-store sales. Given the 32.4% increase in London gold prices since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, which is 7.4 percentage points lower than the previous fiscal year's increase of 39.8%, the expected fair value loss on gold loans has been adjusted higher. Consequently, the net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 have been revised down to HKD 7.141 billion, HKD 8.178 billion, and HKD 9.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.4, and 16.6 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), highlighting its leadership in the jewelry industry, focus on single-store operations, product design optimization, and consumer engagement strategies. Despite a slight revenue decline of 1.1% in H1 FY2026, operating profit increased by 0.7%, indicating steady improvement in profitability [1]. Performance Summary - For H1 FY2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue decline of 1.1% to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, reflecting a stable recovery. The operating profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 17.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.534 billion, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. Mainland Market Performance - In H1 FY2026, revenue from mainland China decreased by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue declining by 10.2%. The company closed 611 stores, ending the period with 5,663 retail stores, 73% of which are franchise stores. The company is optimizing its retail network and opened 57 new stores, achieving an average monthly sales of over HKD 1.3 million per new store, a 72% increase year-on-year [2]. Product Strategy - The sales revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, up 2.7 percentage points. The company focused on product optimization, with notable sales from its signature series, which reached HKD 3.4 billion, a 48% increase. Conversely, revenue from weight-based gold jewelry declined by 3.8%, with its share dropping by 2.2 percentage points to 65.2%. The company aims to continue optimizing its product structure to enhance profit margins [3]. Regional Market Growth - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, driven by a recovery in retail consumption and foot traffic. The company is revitalizing existing markets and expanding into high-potential new markets, including Southeast Asia and Oceania, through store upgrades and new openings [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.1% for FY2026, reaching HKD 92.453 billion, and a net profit growth of 36.8% to HKD 8.092 billion, benefiting from rising gold prices and product optimization [4].

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), highlighting its leadership in the jewelry industry, focus on single-store operations, product design optimization, and consumer engagement despite a slight revenue decline in H1 FY2026 [1] Performance Summary - For H1 FY2026, the company's revenue decreased by 1.1% to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, indicating steady operational improvement [1] - The operating profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 17.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.534 billion, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share and a payout ratio of 85.7% [1] Mainland Market Performance - Revenue in mainland China fell by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue decreasing by 10.2% due to store consolidation [2] - The company focused on optimizing single-store operations and saw a 27.6% increase in e-commerce sales, with 5,663 retail stores in mainland China, 73% of which are franchise stores [2] Product Performance - Revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, while revenue from weight-based gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% [3] - The company emphasized product optimization, with notable sales growth in its signature product lines, achieving HKD 3.4 billion in sales for specific collections, a 48% increase [3] Regional Market Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, benefiting from improved retail consumption and foot traffic recovery [4] - The company is actively expanding in Southeast Asia and Oceania, enhancing retail experiences through store upgrades and new openings [4] Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.1% for FY2026, reaching HKD 92.453 billion, and a net profit growth of 36.8% to HKD 8.092 billion, driven by rising gold prices and product optimization [5]

值得注意的是，与黄金珠宝行业息息相关的国际金价近期仍呈现高位震荡格局。伦敦金价格10月突破 4300美元/盎司后回落，10月下旬一度回到4000美元/盎司以下，但此后有所回升。截至11月26日中午 12：16，伦敦金报4160.77美元/盎司。 在国际金价居高不下的背景下，国内品牌黄金珠宝店的金饰克价也水涨船高，日前已普遍超过1300元/ 克。11月26日，智通财经查阅周大福今日金价，报于1312元/克。 这对周大福的业绩造成直接的影响。据公司的中期业绩报告，在高毛利定价首饰贡献提升及黄金价格上 涨的支持下，集团毛利率维持于30%以上，处于历史较高水平；期内经营溢利保持韧性，达到68.23亿 港元，同比增长0.7%；公司股东应占溢利同比小幅增长0.1%。 来源：智通财经 11月26日，周大福珠宝集团有限公司（01929.HK）公布半年报业绩后，股价低开低走，一度跌超 7.8%。截至午间收盘，公司股价收跌7.48%，报收14.1港元/股，总市值约1391亿港元。 11月25日晚，周大福发布截至2025年9月30日止的中期业绩。根据公告，2026财年上半年共实现营收 389.9亿港元，同比下降约1.1%，低于市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group Limited reported disappointing interim results, leading to a significant drop in stock price, with revenue and net profit falling short of market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, Chow Tai Fook achieved revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 1.1%, below the market expectation of HKD 40.19 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year, but lower than the expected HKD 2.63 billion [1] - The group's operating profit remained resilient at HKD 6.823 billion, a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, supported by high-margin pricing jewelry and rising gold prices [2] Market Conditions - International gold prices have shown high volatility, with London gold prices fluctuating around USD 4,160.77 per ounce as of November 26, 2023, impacting the jewelry industry [2] - The price of gold jewelry in domestic markets has risen, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reported at HKD 1,312 per gram [2] Same-Store Sales Performance - The company reported a 2.6% increase in same-store sales for its directly operated retail points in mainland China, and a 4.8% increase for franchise retail points [3] - Same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau rose by 4.4%, driven by improved retail consumption and increased foot traffic [3] - Specifically, Hong Kong saw a 1.8% increase in same-store sales, while Macau experienced a significant growth of 13.7% [3]

该行指出，考虑到金价涨幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半 年的对冲损失将更加可控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。该行将周大福2026至2028财年各年核 心净利润(撇除对冲损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损 失更易控制，及金价走势更有利的预期。中银国际预期，集团将在2026财年下半年，乃至2027财年受益 于同店销售增长的改善，从而实现盈利增长，并有望维持其在中国珠宝行业的领导者地位。 中银国际指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别同比下滑1.1%和增长 0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。从2025年10月1日至11 月18日期间的同店销售增长表现来看(中国内地同比增长35.1%)，这趋势已得到验证，数据展现出强劲 的增长势头，尽管面临挑战，下半财年展望更加乐观。 中银国际发布研报称，有关迹象表明周大福(01929)的策略转型正取得成功，并有望在所有业务板块中 获得更多市场份额;重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港元，相当于预测2026 ...