Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) experienced a significant decline of over 7%, closing at HKD 14.15, with a total market capitalization of HKD 139.59 billion. The company reported its interim results for the fiscal year 2026, revealing lower-than-expected revenue and net profit figures [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, below the forecast of HKD 40.19 billion [1]. - The net profit for the same period was HKD 2.53 billion, also falling short of the expected HKD 2.63 billion [1]. - The interim dividend per share was set at HKD 0.22 [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3% year-on-year [1]. - However, revenue from gold jewelry saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year [1]. Market Analysis - High gold prices have somewhat suppressed gold jewelry consumption, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among customers, particularly for higher-weight products [1]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for lower-priced jewelry or alternatives [1]. - Some gold retail stores are facing challenges that may lead to closures [1].

该行指出，考虑到金价涨幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半 年的对冲损失将更加可控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。该行将周大福2026至2028财年各年核 心净利润(撇除对冲损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损 失更易控制，及金价走势更有利的预期。中银国际预期，集团将在2026财年下半年，乃至2027财年受益 于同店销售增长的改善，从而实现盈利增长，并有望维持其在中国珠宝行业的领导者地位。 中银国际指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别同比下滑1.1%和增长 0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。从2025年10月1日至11 月18日期间的同店销售增长表现来看(中国内地同比增长35.1%)，这趋势已得到验证，数据展现出强劲 的增长势头，尽管面临挑战，下半财年展望更加乐观。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，有关迹象表明周大福(01929)的策略转型正取得成功，并有望 在所有业务板块中获得更多市场份额; 重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港 ...

中银国际认为，有关迹象表明周大福的策略转型正取得成功，并有望在所有业务板块中获得更多市场份 额；重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港元；将2026至2028财年各年核心净利润(撇除对冲 损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损失更易控制，及金 价走势更有利的预期。 中银国际发表研报指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别按年下滑1.1% 和增长0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。考虑到金价涨 幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半年的对冲损失将更加可 控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) from HKD 17.5 to HKD 17.6, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for the fiscal year 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the continuous improvement in same-store sales that may support a valuation reassessment [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-on-year and in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for the same period was HKD 39 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, which was 3% lower than the bank's expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first half was 30.5%, below the expected 31.3%, but partially offset by a reduction in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) ratio to 14%, which was lower than the anticipated 15.3% [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year gross margin guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to between 31% and 32%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points, compared to the previous expectation of a decline of 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin guidance has also been increased to between 18% and 19%, suggesting a year-on-year rise of 1.6 to 2.6 percentage points, whereas the prior expectation was a decline of 0.6 to 1 percentage point [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Following the sales trends from October to mid-November and the better-than-expected profit margin guidance, Bank of America Securities has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 6% and 1%, respectively, to HKD 8.7 billion and HKD 8.8 billion [2] - The bank believes that the management's guidance on same-store sales growth is slightly conservative and sees potential for upward adjustments, asserting that the worst period for same-store sales decline has likely passed [2] - Initiatives aimed at business transformation may support a recovery in profitability [2]

管理层上调明年3月底止2026财年全年毛利率指引，至介乎31%至32%，意味同比升1.5至2.5个百分点， 原先料同比降0.8至1.2个百分点，因金价上升及定价产品销售占比增加。管理层并上调经营利润率指引 至介乎18%至19%，意味同比升1.6至2.6个百分点，原先料同比降0.6至1个百分点。 美银证券发布研报称，将周大福(01929)目标价由原先17.5港元微升至17.6港元，相当于预测2027财年市 盈率20倍;重申"买入"评级，理由是同店销售增长的持续改善可能支撑估值重评。 周大福9月底止2026财年上半财年净利润为25亿元，同比大致持平，符合该行预期;收入390亿元，同比 下降1%，较该行预期低3%;上半财年毛利率为30.5%，低于该行预期的31.3%，但被销售、管理及行政 费用比率(SG&A ratio)降至14%所部分抵消，并低于该行预期的15.3%。 该行指，鉴于10月至11月中旬销售趋势、利润率指引优于预期后，将周大福2026、2027财年净利润预测 分别上调6%及1%，至分别87亿及88亿元。美银证券认为，周大福管理层对同店销售增长指引略为保 守，认为指引有上行空间;又相信同店销售增长下滑的 ...

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31 至32%，调整幅度高过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将按年增长 44至55%，至85至91亿港元，即下半财年按年增长75至90%。 该行指，虽然近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观 察增值税改革后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格 局充满信心，认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 该行将2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润预测上调6%至87.5亿港元；2027至2028年每股盈利预测 则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加上宏观环境将逐步复苏；维持目标价19港元及"增 持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Chow Tai Fook's net profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026 is HKD 2.5 billion, remaining stable year-on-year and in line with expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period is HKD 39 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1%, which is 3% lower than the bank's expectations [1] - Gross margin stands at 30.5%, below the expected 31.3%, but partially offset by a reduction in the selling, general and administrative (SG&A) ratio to 14%, which is lower than the anticipated 15.3% [1] Management Guidance - Management has raised the gross margin guidance for the full fiscal year ending March 2026 to between 31% and 32%, citing rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of sales from priced products [1] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Following the sales trends from October to mid-November and the better-than-expected profit margin guidance, the bank has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 6% and 1%, respectively, to HKD 8.7 billion and HKD 8.8 billion [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price has been slightly increased from HKD 17.5 to HKD 17.6, with a reiterated "Buy" rating, based on the continuous improvement in same-store sales growth which may support a valuation re-rating [1] Sales Growth Outlook - The bank notes that management's guidance on same-store sales growth is somewhat conservative, indicating potential upside; it believes that the worst period of decline in same-store sales growth has passed, and initiatives to drive business transformation may support profit recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.40 [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.99 billion for FY26H1, showing a year-on-year decline of only 1.1%, indicating a significant improvement from previous periods [1]. - The operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 17.5%, the highest in nearly five years [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, essentially flat compared to the previous year [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.5%, supported by an increase in high-margin priced jewelry and rising gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau was reported at +2.6% and +4.4%, respectively, showing a significant year-on-year improvement of 30.0 and 35.2 percentage points [2]. - The retail sales of priced gold and jewelry in mainland China showed SSSG of +3.1% and +8.3%, while in Hong Kong/Macau, the figures were +8.5% and +6.1% [2]. Store Network Optimization - The company is optimizing its store network by closing inefficient stores and opening new flagship stores, with a net closure of 609 stores in FY25H1 [3]. - The average monthly sales of new stores opened in FY26H1 reached HKD 1.3 million, a 72% increase year-on-year, indicating improved productivity [3]. - The company plans to open six new stores in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Canada by June 2026, with a forecasted net closure of 910 stores for the fiscal year [3]. Market Trends and Outlook - Retail sales from October 1 to November 18, 2025, showed a strong growth of 33.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [4]. - The implementation of a new gold tax policy in early November is expected to raise industry compliance standards, potentially benefiting the company due to its robust supply chain and brand strength [4]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26 to be HKD 8.12 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [5].

报告提到，10月1日至11月18日期间，内地自营门店的同店销售增长达48.7%，加盟店增长38.8%，香港 及澳门市场亦增长18.3%。 即使增值税改革后产品加价，11月需求仍保持中双位数增长。该行指，虽然 近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观察增值税改革 后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格局充满信心， 认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将周大福(01929)2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润 预测上调6%至87.5亿元;2027至2028年每股盈利预测则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加 上宏观环境将逐步复苏。维持目标价19港元及"增持"评级。 该行指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31至32%，调整幅度高 过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将同比增长44至55%，至85至91 亿元，即下半财年同比增长75至90%。 ...

报告提到，10月1日至11月18日期间，内地自营门店的同店销售增长达48.7%，加盟店增长38.8%，香港 及澳门市场亦增长18.3%。即使增值税改革后产品加价，11月需求仍保持中双位数增长。该行指，虽然 近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观察增值税改革 后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格局充满信心， 认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 该行指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31至32%，调整幅度高 过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将同比增长44至55%，至85至91 亿元，即下半财年同比增长75至90%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，将周大福(01929)2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润预测上调6%至87.5亿 元;2027至2028年每股盈利预测则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加上宏观环境将逐步复 苏。维持目标价19港元及"增持"评级。 ...