Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [3][6] Core Views - The company's retail sales decline continues to narrow, with a 11.6% year-on-year decrease in RSV for FY2025Q4, showing improvement compared to FY2025Q3 [1][3] - The company is expected to experience a high double-digit revenue decline for FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 2.4% to HKD 6.342 billion [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q4, the mainland RSV decreased by 10.4%, attributed to macroeconomic fluctuations and high gold prices affecting same-store sales, alongside a continued net store closure strategy [2][3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV fell by 20.7%, with same-store sales down 22.5%, primarily due to changes in consumer behavior and reduced spending by mainland tourists [3][11] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025 is expected to decline by 19.3%, with net profit projected at HKD 6.342 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [5][14] - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to HKD 6.342 billion, HKD 7.249 billion, and HKD 8.217 billion respectively, with a corresponding FY2025 PE ratio of 15 times [3][5] Store Operations - The company closed 395 stores in mainland China during FY2025Q4, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability [11][3] - As of March 2025, Chow Tai Fook operates 6,423 stores globally, with a strategy to optimize store performance by closing underperforming locations while opening new, higher-efficiency stores [11][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward revision of FY25 EPS forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) by 7% to HKD 0.54, while maintaining FY26 EPS forecast at HKD 0.76 and introducing FY27 EPS forecast at HKD 0.83. The current stock price corresponds to 18/13/12 times FY25/26/27 P/E ratios, with a target price increase of 46% to HKD 11.41, corresponding to 15 times FY26 P/E [1]. Group 1 - The company reported a 11.6% year-on-year decline in overall retail value for 4QFY25, with declines of 10.4% in mainland China and 20.7% in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - Same-store sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau fell by 13.2% and 22.5% respectively [2]. - Despite the rising gold prices, mainland China business showed a sequential improvement, with retail value and same-store sales declining by 10.4% and 13.2% respectively, compared to previous quarter declines of 13.0% and 16.1% [3]. Group 2 - The company has made positive progress in channel upgrades and product innovation, opening 5 new concept stores in FY25, which have shown higher store efficiency and sales performance [4]. - New product lines, such as the Chuanfu series and the Palace Museum series, achieved sales exceeding HKD 4 billion each in FY25, reflecting the company's competitive strength in product design and innovation [4]. - The proportion of retail value from priced products surpassed 25% in the latest quarter, up from 9% in the same period last year, contributing to strong profitability [4]. Group 3 - For FY26, the company will continue to focus on improving store efficiency and product optimization, with a strategy to enhance same-store sales growth [5]. - The management plans to launch a new flagship product series, the Chuanxi series, in April 2025, and aims to increase the sales proportion of priced gold products to 20-23% in FY26 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's retail value experienced a decline in the fourth quarter, influenced by external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices, with a notable drop in sales across various markets [1][2] Group 1: Retail Performance - The group's retail value for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with mainland China down 10.4% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets down 20.7% [1] - Same-store sales in mainland China fell by 13.2% for direct stores and 8.7% for franchise stores, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a similar trend with a 22.5% decline in same-store sales [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry remained resilient, increasing to HKD 6,400 in mainland China and HKD 8,600 in Hong Kong and Macau [1] Group 2: Product and Market Insights - Despite a challenging macro environment, strong sales of gold-inlaid diamond and other gemstone products led to a significant narrowing of the same-store sales decline for jewelry in mainland China [2] - The average selling price of jewelry in mainland China surged to HKD 10,900, while Hong Kong and Macau reached HKD 16,000 [2] - The company optimized its retail network by closing 395 retail points in mainland China and opening one in Hong Kong and Macau, while also closing three points in Japan and Vietnam [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is experiencing a decline in same-store sales due to external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices, but product optimization measures and effective marketing campaigns have led to a reduction in the sales decline in mainland China [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the fourth quarter, same-store sales in mainland China for direct stores decreased by 13.2% year-on-year [1] - Same-store sales for franchise stores in mainland China fell by 8.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - External macroeconomic factors and elevated gold prices continue to impact consumer sentiment [1] - The company's product optimization measures have shown positive results, driving strong growth momentum and demand for priced products [1] Group 3: Marketing Efforts - Effective marketing activities for the Lunar New Year contributed to the narrowing of the same-store sales decline in mainland China [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose over 1%, indicating a positive market trend [1] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) led the gainers among constituent stocks with an increase of nearly 5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also saw a rise of 1.4%, reflecting growth in the technology sector [1]

❑ 二、超预期逻辑 1）周大福在品牌影响力、产品设计迭代等环节表现出极强优势，公司从 24 年开 始全力推进品牌转型，同店收入有望超预期增长。 市场担忧：周大福 24 年同店大幅下滑，在金价持续新高、行业竞争加剧背景下 公司的终端动销表现或将持续承压。 我们认为：周大福基于其极强品牌力、产品力、渠道力，24 年起推动品牌形象 升级、产品结构升级、门店效益提升，卓有成效，同店收入有望恢复快速增长。 周大福是黄金珠宝行业龙头品牌，发展历史悠久、品牌定位高端、渠道覆盖广 泛，拥有极强的品牌认知和影响力。公司 18 年起陆续推出"新城镇战略"和省 代政策，发力下沉市场和渠道扩张，23年后公司对渠道扩张策略进行调整，聚焦 品牌形象升级和门店效益提升。 24 年以来，周大福全力推进品牌转型：1）品牌形象升级：周大福全新概念店于 24 年 9 月落地香港中环，并陆续落地西安和深圳，新概念店采用展览式布局展示 各个珠宝系列，店效高于店铺平均水平，公司未来五年将陆续更新店铺形象； 2）产品结构升级：24年 4月、8月先后推出"传福"、"故宫"系列，蕴含品牌独 特印记和深厚文化寓意，主要以一口价模式销售，带动 25 财年上半年中 ...

4月10日，今日周大福珠宝集团对外公布了品牌转型一周年成效。在品牌转型亮点方面，为庆祝品牌成 立95周年，集团于2024年4月推出了周大福传福系列，截至2025财政年度第三季度，该系列的零售值已 突破24亿港元。同时，周大福珠宝天宣布推出全新的周大福传喜系列（CTF Joie Collection）。据悉， 此系列秉承了周大福传福系列的故事性寓意，两者均深受中国文化中具有深远意义的文字所启发。 在策略性品牌联乘合作方面，自2024年8月推出以来，周大福故宫系列截至2025财政年度第三季止的零 售值已录得16亿港元。同时，集团透过与《黑神话：悟空》、《鬼灭之刃》和《吉伊卡哇Chiikawa》等 人气IP联乘合作，进一步丰富其产品组合。其中，《黑神话：悟空》系列在吸引男性顾客方面表现尤为 出色，推动了自用而非送礼的购买需求，成功打入此前尚未开发的市场领域。 周大福珠宝集团副主席郑志雯表示："我们的品牌转型之旅印证了集团对创新、质量和以客为先的坚定 承诺。透过推出新形象时尚店、加强产品组合，以及与全球知名伙伴的策略性联乘合作，我们重新定义 了顾客体验。这些举措不仅巩固我们作为值得信赖的终身伙伴的地位，同时也为可持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by increased volatility and declining market risk appetite, investors are adopting a "barbell" strategy, balancing high-risk Chinese tech stocks with high-dividend stocks for stable returns. The recent trade war has led to significant fluctuations in global markets, making low-risk bonds essential for defensive positioning. Chow Tai Fook Creation (0659.HK) stands out as an ideal choice for investors seeking low-risk returns due to its mature business model, stable cash flow, and diversified operations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Resilience - The company reported a robust mid-year performance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with a 15% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders, reaching HKD 1.158 billion, demonstrating strong cash flow and the profitability of its diversified business portfolio [2]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation maintains a sustainable and gradual dividend policy, declaring an interim ordinary dividend of HKD 0.3 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.3 per share, reflecting its commitment to stakeholder value creation and a solid financial foundation with 22 consecutive years of dividend payments [2]. Group 2: Debt Structure and Liquidity - As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately HKD 18.6 billion in cash and bank deposits, with an additional HKD 11.3 billion in committed bank credit lines, providing a total available liquidity of about HKD 29.9 billion, with cash and equivalents accounting for over 60% of available assets [3]. - The company has a healthy debt maturity profile, with only about HKD 2.3 billion in short-term debt due within the next year, representing a small fraction of its total available liquidity [3]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation has strategically optimized its debt structure by replacing higher-cost foreign debt with lower-cost RMB-denominated debt, significantly reducing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on equity [3]. Group 3: Credit Ratings and Risk Profile - Chow Tai Fook Creation has received an "AAA" long-term credit rating from United Ratings, with a stable outlook, and an "A+" rating from Japan Credit Rating Agency for both foreign currency and local currency long-term issuances, indicating strong recognition of its business and financial health in both domestic and international capital markets [5]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning and Business Diversification - The company completed a restructuring at the end of 2023, becoming directly controlled by Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, which enhances its strategic alignment with the parent company's future development plans and allows for better resource utilization and cross-selling opportunities [6][7]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation operates in various sectors, including toll roads, insurance, logistics, and construction, which helps mitigate industry risks and reduces reliance on any single business line. The insurance segment, particularly Chow Tai Fook Life, has shown exceptional growth, with a 49% year-on-year increase in operating profit, driven by rising demand for investment and medical protection [8]. - The company plans to acquire a 43.93% stake in uSmart Inlet Group Ltd, a leading fintech firm, to enhance its financial services segment and expand its client base in Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and the U.S., creating a synergistic "insurance + asset management" model [9][10].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London spot gold rising to $3070 per ounce and COMEX gold futures touching $3109 per ounce on March 28 [1] - In response to rising gold prices, Chow Tai Fook has adjusted its pricing for gold jewelry, with 24K gold jewelry priced at 932 RMB per gram and investment gold products at 818 RMB per gram [2] - The sales of "fixed-price" gold jewelry have increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 118%, while overall sales revenue for Chow Tai Fook has decreased by 20% [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming price increase for "fixed-price" gold jewelry is expected to be between 10% and 20%, with price hikes ranging from hundreds to thousands of RMB [2][4] - The management of Chow Tai Fook recognizes the need for product innovation, channel optimization, and precise marketing to address the challenges posed by fluctuating gold prices and weak demand [4] - Other gold retail companies, such as Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang, are also experiencing performance pressures and have adopted price increases as a common strategy to boost revenue [5]