[Table_Page] 公告点评|零售业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】周大福 （01929.HK） 金价高涨压制可选消费需求，静待终端动销恢复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：公司发布 FY25Q1 经营公告，24 年 4 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日公司 零售值同比下滑 20%，中国内地市场零售值同降 18.6%，中国港澳地 区及其他地区零售值同降 28.8%。中国内地同店销售同降 26.4%，同 店销量同降 36.5%。中国港澳地区同店销售同降 30.8%，同店销量同 降 36.1%，主因金价持续高位，黄金消费需求降低。 镶嵌产品：受宏观经济影响，可选消费整体销售疲软。FY25Q1 中国内 地镶嵌产品同店销售同比下滑 31.7%；中国港澳地区同店销售同比下 滑 31.3%。中国内地镶嵌产品同店平均售价同增 800 港元至 8600 港 元，中国港澳地区同店平均售价同降 300 港元至 16400 港元。 黄金产品：定价黄金产品销售增长，占比提升导致平均售价上涨。 FY25Q1 中国内地同店销售同比下滑 27.9%；中国港澳地区同店销售 同比下滑 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price (TP) of HKD 14.54, which corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY25E estimates, aligning with the long-term average of comparable peers [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales value (RSV) for Q1 FY25, with declines of 18% in mainland China and 28.8% in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales growth (SSSG) decreased by 26.4% and 30.8% in these regions, respectively. The weak performance is attributed to sluggish consumer spending and increased gold price volatility, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1]. - The contribution of fixed-price products has significantly increased from 5.7% in Q1 FY24 to 15.8% in Q1 FY25, exceeding expectations. This improvement is driven by ongoing product portfolio enhancements and strong terminal feedback, particularly for the new "Roge" series. The report anticipates that the contribution from fixed-price products will remain high due to upcoming product launches [1]. - The company has optimized its channel strategy, closing 95 stores in Q1 FY25 (opening 89 and closing 194) to replace underperforming stores with more efficient ones, thereby enhancing profitability. Online sales contribution rose to 13.8% in Q1 FY25 from 10% in Q1 FY24, indicating a positive trend in online presence amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to generate revenue of HKD 106,501 million, reflecting a 2% decline year-on-year. Net profit is expected to reach HKD 7,260 million, with a growth forecast of 12% for FY25E, followed by 9% and 8% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 21.6% for FY25E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by FY27E. The report also highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% for FY25E, improving to 9.9% by FY27E [2][11]. - The company's financial position shows a net cash status in FY23A, with a projected net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2x in FY25E, indicating a strong balance sheet [2][11].

29 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Sales under ST pressure, fixed-price products to contribute more Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1QFY25 (calendar year 2Q24) operational data with a 20% YoY decline in total retail sales value (RSV). RSV in Mainland China/ HK & Macau fell 18/28.8% YoY, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) down 26.4/30.8% YoY. The sluggish results were due to weak consumer spending and gold price volatility that intensified co ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a cautious outlook due to declining sales and market conditions [3][4]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY2025Q1 decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant declines in both mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau markets [3][4]. - The report highlights that the fluctuation in gold prices has led to a cautious consumer sentiment, impacting sales performance across various channels [4]. - The average selling price of gold and embedded products has increased, attributed to rising gold prices and resilient sales of high-priced items [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q1, the retail value in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau fell by 18.6% and 28.8% respectively, accounting for 87.8% and 12.2% of total retail value [3]. - Same-store sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau declined by 26.4% and 30.8% respectively, with same-store volumes dropping by 36.5% and 36.1% [3][4]. Market Conditions - The report notes that gold prices have been at historical highs with significant volatility since April, leading to weakened performance in both mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau [4]. - The same-store sales decline in Hong Kong/Macau is more pronounced compared to mainland China, with franchise performance generally better than direct sales [4]. Pricing Trends - The average selling price for gold jewelry in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau increased to 6200 HKD and 8900 HKD respectively, compared to 5400 HKD and 8400 HKD in FY2024Q1 [5]. - The average selling price for embedded jewelry also saw an increase, indicating a shift towards higher-priced products amidst fluctuating gold prices [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2025 to FY2027 are estimated at 1055 billion HKD, 1092 billion HKD, and 1118 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of -3%, +3%, and +2% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 68.57 billion HKD, 71.31 billion HKD, and 73.07 billion HKD for the same period, reflecting a growth of 5%, 4%, and 2% [6].

证券所充报告 周大橋 (1929 HK) FY25Q1 渠道调整，产品结构优化 牟 养 研究的态点评 2024 年 7 月 24 日 | 中国香港本會 公司积极进行渠道优化，改善产品站构，维持增持评级 周大翁 7月 23 日公告 FY25Q1 经营数据,集团总面李告领问比下济 20.0%, 共中表国内地/港澳及其他市场销售网比分别下滞 18.6%、28.8%，我们认 为销售领的下滑主要系短期全价宽幅度荡乎我消费者毫未被抑制,伴随全价 企稳、消费计结回哦，李借领增选有望恢复。FY25Q1 周大福残行渠道优化 与品牌升级计划，同时发力计件黄金产品（Q1 领借领同比增长超 100%）。 短期金价抚动不改周大稿作为行业龙头经营的稳使性, 我们维续看好行业竞 争办剧、周大福市场份领的持续提升。袁们预计公司 FY25-27 归井净利达 59.9\64.0\67.6 亿港币，参考可比公司 Wind 一致预期 2024 年 10.24xPE, 考虑到周大福作为龙头有望充分含益本轮行业竞争办剧后的集中度授升,维 持目标价 10.80 港币（对应 18xPE），维持增持评级。 金价枕动鼓同店增长永压，但产品站构环比有所改善 FY ...

公 司 研 究 周大福（01929.HK） 2024 年 07 月 24 日 纺织服饰/饰品 FY2025Q1 零售值受宏观环境、金价等影响有所承压 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 luozheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040008 公司 2025 财年第一季度零售值同比-20.0%，终端动销有所承压 公司发布 FY2025Q1 经营数据：FY2025Q1 实现零售值同比-20.0%。考虑金价高 位波动对动销的不利影响，我们下调 2025-2027 财年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 财年归母净利润为 66.85（-5.91）/72.33（-9.44）/79.91（-12.29）亿港元，对应 EPS 为 0.67（-0.06）/0.72（-0.09）/0.80（-0.12）港元，当前股价对应 PE 为 11.8/10.9/9.9 倍。我们认为，公司已建立品牌、产品、渠道等多方位竞争优势，未来持续提升 品牌影响力，优化经营质量，有望稳步发展，估值合理， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail performance in FY25Q1 showed a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales, with a significant increase in the retail value of fixed-price gold products in mainland China, growing over 100% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail network by enhancing store productivity and profitability, resulting in the closure of 91 jewelry retail points in mainland China during the quarter [2]. - Same-store sales faced pressure, with declines of 37% in mainland China and 36% in Hong Kong and Macau, while the average selling price of gold products showed stable growth [3]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of HKD 113.6 billion, HKD 121.4 billion, and HKD 130.3 billion for FY25-27, with net profits of HKD 6.9 billion, HKD 7.6 billion, and HKD 8.5 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales in mainland China decreased by 18.6%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a decline of 28.8% [1]. - The retail value of fixed-price gold products increased significantly, accounting for nearly 16% of total sales, up 10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Product and Channel Analysis - In mainland China, gold products accounted for 76.9% of sales, with a stable average selling price increase of HKD 800, reaching HKD 6,200 [3]. - The online retail value represented 5.8% of total sales, with sales volume at 13.8% [1]. Financial Projections - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25-27 are HKD 0.69, HKD 0.76, and HKD 0.85, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [4].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 金价高位波动克重承压,定价金翻倍增长 ——周大福 FY2025Q1 主要经营数据点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------|------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘越男(分析师) | 苏颖(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38038344 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | suying@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880522110001 | 本报告导读: FY2025Q1 经营业绩符合预期,定价黄金翻倍增长表现亮眼;考虑到定价黄金结构贡 献占比提升及金价上行存货增值,FY2025 利润率提振可期。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 业绩符合预期,维持"增持"评级。预计公司 2025-2027 财年归母净利 润为 74.20/82.09/90.85 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年07月24日 周犬福(01929. HK) 4–6 月金价燃荡下零售增长承压,高毛利定价产品占比提升 ◆ 公司研究・公司快评 商贸零售・专业连锁 II ◆ 投资评级 : 优于大市(维持) 张岭市证券分析师:021-60933168zhang jh@guosen. com. cn 证券分析师:物相0755-81981311l i uxu1@guosen. com. cn 执证编码:S0980517070001 执证编码:S0980522120001 事项: 公司发布 2024 年 4~6 月未经审核的主要经营数据,整体零售值同比下降 20%,其中中国〈不含港澳台〉市 场零售值同比下降 18. 6%,中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场同比下降 28. 8%。 国信零售观点:1)同店方面,中国(不含港澳台)市场同店销售同比下降 26. 4%,中国香港、中国澳门及 其他市场同店销售下降 30. 8%。2)开店方面,公司继续贯彻强化单店效益的规划,季内对低效门店进行调 整,净关店 95 家门店,其中周大福主品牌 91 家,其他品牌 4 家,期末门店总数 7659 家。公司整体 4–6 月经营表现承 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][3] Core Views - Short-term demand fluctuations, with FY2025 Q1 RSV down 20% YoY [1] - Mainland RSV down 18.6% YoY, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets down 28.8% YoY [1] - FY2025 revenue expected to remain flat, with single-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - Adjusted FY2025-2026 net profit forecast to HKD 7,001/7,800/8,684 million, with FY2025 PE at 11x [1] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue: HKD 108,713 million, up 14.8% YoY [2] - FY2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 6,499 million, up 20.7% YoY [2] - FY2025E revenue: HKD 109,550 million, up 0.8% YoY [2] - FY2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 7,001 million, up 7.7% YoY [2] - FY2025E EPS: HKD 0.70, up 7.7% YoY [2] Market and Operations - As of June 2024, the company operates 7,429 Chow Tai Fook jewelry stores globally (7,284 in Mainland China, 87 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 58 in other markets) [1] - Net closure of 91 Chow Tai Fook stores in Mainland China during April-June 2024 [1] - Focus on optimizing store structure and improving single-store operations [1] - Pricing products sales ratio increased from 5.7% to 15.8% YoY in FY2025 Q1 [1] Product Performance - Gold jewelry and products same-store sales down 27.9% YoY in April-June 2024 [1] - Jewelry inlaid, platinum, and K-gold jewelry same-store sales down 31.7% YoY in April-June 2024 [1] - Pricing products sales performance strong, partially offsetting the weak performance of weight-based products [1] Valuation Metrics - FY2025E P/E: 11.3x [2] - FY2025E P/B: 2.3x [2] - FY2025E ROE: 21.0% [2] - FY2025E ROIC: 13.0% [2] Stock Information - Industry: Other Retailers [3] - Closing price on July 23, 2024: HKD 7.91 [3] - Market capitalization: HKD 79,003.00 million [3] - Total shares outstanding: 9,987.74 million [3] - 30-day average trading volume: 11.32 million shares [3]