Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in international and domestic gold prices have led to multiple jewelry brands announcing price increases for gold products, reflecting a broader trend in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Price Increases by Companies - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price increase of the year, with retail prices expected to rise by 12% to 18% by the end of October [2]. - Chow Sang Sang has already implemented price increases for gold jewelry, with price hikes ranging from 25% to 35% since October 16 [4]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to adjust its gold jewelry prices by approximately 15% by the end of the month [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The rapid increase in gold prices began in late August, with a rise of over 25% in London gold spot prices from August 21 to October 15 [5]. - Key drivers include rising global risk aversion, declining confidence in the US dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 166 tons in Q2 of this year, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [7]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments as a potential driver for increased ETF holdings [7]. - Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the impact of alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies, on gold's safe-haven status [7].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Oct 2025 周大福 Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) 定价黄金驱动结构修复，2QFY26 同店延续复苏节奏 yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com Priced Gold Drives Structural Recovery, Same-Store Sales Maintain Rebound Momentum in 2QFY26 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen 渠道优化聚焦高效率门店，关店并非收缩而是提质。2QFY26 周大福持续优化零售网络，于中国内地净关闭约 300 家 门店，同时在香港及澳门新开两家零售店；管理层预计新店店效约为关闭门店的三倍，可有效提升整体门店生产 力。公司目前已开设 8 家新形象店，均位于核心商圈购物中心，单店销售明显高于传统门店，且高毛利产品占比更 高。海外扩张也稳步推进，公司计划于曼谷 Paragon 及新加坡樟宜机场开设形象店。在线上渠道方面，凭借顾客互 动提升及 IP 联乘引流效应，电商零售额季度同 ...

10月20日，新京报贝壳财经记者在周大福天猫旗舰店查询发现，多款主力"一口价"产品虽尚未更新价 格，但已出现"下架"或"售罄"状态。多家线下柜台也确认涨价即将执行，但目前"新价签未到店"。一位 周大福专柜工作人员透露，目前店内定价产品没有任何折扣活动，热门款如"五帝钱足金手链"等均已无 货，"近期不少顾客赶在涨价前购买"。 这已是周大福定价产品年内第二次提价。今年3月，该品牌曾完成一轮10%-20%的调价。以一款1.09克 故宫系列吊坠为例，售价从2月的2380元上调至3月的2580元，目前在天猫官方旗舰店仍维持这一价格， 但已显示无货。 周大福金价走势显示，今年以来已从836元/克涨至1262元/克，不足一年涨幅近51%。 【"一口价"今日涨价？周大福回应：10月底预计提价12%-18%】#周大福一口价月底提价12至18%##周 大福涨价多款主力一口价售罄# 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者曲筱艺）针对网传"10月20日涨价"一事，周大福方面向新京报贝壳财经记者回 应称，将在10月底上调定价黄金产品。 周大福方面称，此次涨价主要系"金价持续上涨对成本的影响"，集团计划在10月底提高定价黄金产品的 零售价格，大多数产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices for gold products by 12%-18% at the end of October due to the continuous increase in gold prices affecting costs [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment - Chow Tai Fook will implement a price increase for gold products, with most products seeing a price hike of 12%-18% [1] - This marks the second price increase for Chow Tai Fook's products this year, following a previous adjustment of 10%-20% in March [1] Group 2: Market Response - As of October 20, several key products on Chow Tai Fook's Tmall flagship store were either sold out or taken down, indicating a preemptive response from consumers to the anticipated price increase [1] - Many customers are reportedly purchasing products before the price hike, leading to shortages of popular items like the "Five Emperors Money Gold Bracelet" [1] Group 3: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has risen significantly this year, from 836 RMB per gram to 1262 RMB per gram, representing an increase of nearly 51% within less than a year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the rising gold prices this year are expected to enhance the company's gross profit margin, with a long-term growth outlook for gold prices amid global risk aversion, leading to an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929) [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 77.85 billion, 87.11 billion, and 95.43 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of 74.25 billion, 84.14 billion, and 93.28 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 18.7, and 17.1 times [1] Group 2 - For the quarter ending September 2025, the company reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in overall retail value, recovering from a 1.9% decline in the previous quarter, with mainland China retail value up 3% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 11.4% [2] - Same-store sales turned positive across all markets, with a 7.6% increase in mainland China direct stores (9.9% excluding watch business) and an 8.6% increase in franchise stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 6.2% increase [2] - The company adjusted its store strategy by closing 296 underperforming stores, ending the quarter with a total of 6,041 stores, while also enhancing the new image store initiative, opening one new store in Beijing, bringing the total to eight [2] - The jewelry market is benefiting from dual demands for value preservation and fashion, with the company leveraging its product development, channel efficiency, and brand strength to achieve positive same-store sales [2] - The outlook for the gold jewelry industry is optimistic, driven by the demand for value appreciation and the rise of self-consumption among younger consumers, with the company focusing on R&D and high-margin products to sustain growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices has led major jewelry brands to announce price increases for their gold products, with some brands experiencing price hikes of up to 35% [2][6]. Group 1: Price Adjustments by Jewelry Brands - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices of gold products by 12% to 18% by the end of October due to the impact of rising gold prices on costs [1]. - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price adjustment of the year, with increases expected on October 26, following previous hikes of under 10% in February and 10% to 12% in August [1]. - Other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Sheng are also set to increase their gold jewelry prices, with Chow Sang Sang's increase ranging from 25% to 35% and Chow Tai Sheng's expected to be around 15% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences and Issues - Consumers have reported delays and cancellations in receiving their gold orders, with some experiencing significant price differences between the purchase price and current market prices [2][3]. - A consumer named Jia Jia faced issues with an order for a gold bar, where the seller canceled the order after the market price increased, leading to frustration over the lack of fulfillment [2]. - Another consumer, Mr. Zheng, had his order canceled unexpectedly while it was in transit, highlighting the challenges faced by buyers in the current market [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The price of gold has surged significantly, with London gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching over $4,200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 60% [6]. - Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America predicting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce [6]. - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to factors such as increased demand for defensive assets amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7].

港股點評 2025年10月20日9:30 a.m 恒指跌 641 點，滬指跌 76 點，標普 500 升 34 點 恒指及科指 17 日各跌近 2.5%及 4.1%。市場焦點轉移至美國銀行不良貸款的擔 憂，恒指低開 36 點後跌幅擴大，尾市曾跌 743 點一度低見 25,145 點，全日跌 641 點或 2.5%，收 25,247 點；國指跌 247 點或 2.7%，收 9,011 點；恒生科技指 數跌 243 點或 4.1%，收 5,760 點。大市全日成交總額 3,146.24 億元。 市場觀望中美貿易形勢變化，內地 20 日將公布第三季 GDP 及 9 月經濟數據， 中共「四中全會」亦會開幕，至 23 日結束。人民幣中間價上調 19 點，報 7.0949 兌一美元續創一年高。A 股三大指數低開 0.1%至 0.4%後，跌幅逐步擴大，各以 近全日低位收市。滬綜指全日收 3,839，跌 76 點或近 2%，成交 8,731.8 億元人 民幣。深成指收 12,688，跌 397 點或 3%，成交 10,649.4 億元。創板指數收 2,935 點，跌 102 點或 3.4%，成交 4,619.9 億元。 投資 ...

10月20日，据第一财经，考虑到金价持续上涨对成本的影响，周大福集团计划在10月底提高定价黄金产品的零售价格，大多数产品的提价幅度预计在 12%-18%。周大福方面表示，集团设有机制密切监测金价波动，并适时作出价格调整，以应对市场变化。 同日，周大福足金饰品每克价格为1262元，投资黄金每克1113元，黄金增值服务金价为1108元/克，黄金回收服务金价为994元/克。 | 居美 （ 饰品、工艺品类 ） | 1262元/] | | --- | --- | | 投资黄金类 | 1113元/ | $$\left({\overline{{\Sigma}}}\right)$$ 截至10月20日上午收盘，周大福(01929.HK)股价下跌1.63%，报16.25港元/股，市值为1603亿港元。 此前，周大福等多家品牌宣布上调"一口价"黄金饰品价格。一位武汉地区的周大福门店工作人员在接受九派财经采访时表示，十一之后周大福的"一口价"饰 品将迎来涨价，涨幅大约在20%-30%左右，但涨价的产品比例、以及具体是哪几款还未确定。 除了周大福之外，老铺黄金已经多次宣布上调金价。10月17日，老铺黄金发布调价预告称，将于10月26日 ...

Group 1 - Chow Tai Fook plans to increase the retail prices of most products by 12%-18% at the end of October due to the continuous rise in gold prices affecting costs [1] - The company reported a 4.1% growth in retail value for the second quarter, with a significant 43.7% year-on-year increase in retail value for priced gold products [1] - Same-store sales growth has fully rebounded in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, benefiting from strong growth momentum in priced products [1] Group 2 - Lao Pu Gold announced a price adjustment scheduled for October 26, marking its third price increase this year [2] - In August, Lao Pu Gold raised prices for popular items by approximately 1,000-3,000 yuan, with an overall increase of 5%-13% for main products [2] - The recent surge in international gold prices has prompted several gold retail companies to announce price hikes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook plans to increase retail prices of gold products by 12%-18% at the end of October due to the continuous rise in gold prices impacting costs [1] Group 1: Pricing Strategy - The company has a mechanism in place to closely monitor fluctuations in gold prices and will make timely price adjustments to respond to market changes [1] - The planned price increase reflects the ongoing trend of rising gold prices, which has been a significant factor in the company's cost structure [1] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Strategy - There is sustained demand for various gold products across different consumer segments, prompting the company to innovate in design and optimize services [1] - Chow Tai Fook aims to meet diverse consumer needs and actively explore new markets through market insights and product innovation [1]