Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.67% at 23,689.13 points and a total turnover of HKD 198.59 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 1%, indicating a positive sentiment in the tech sector despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Blue Chip Performance - Li Auto (02015) led blue-chip stocks with a 5.49% increase, closing at HKD 107.6, contributing 12.27 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 4.91% and SMIC (00981) up 4.56%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Mengniu Dairy (02319) saw declines [2] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks performed well, with Hongguang Semiconductor (06908) up 7.84% and SMIC (00981) up 4.56% [3] - The U.S. plans to tighten semiconductor technology exemptions, which may impact global supply chains and create opportunities in the domestic semiconductor industry [3] Stablecoin Concept - The stablecoin sector showed positive momentum, with companies like Lianlian Digital (02598) and ZhongAn Online (06060) seeing significant gains [4] - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System is expected to enhance the application of stablecoins, particularly in small and frequent transactions [4] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas equipment stocks rose, with Shandong Molong (00568) up 8.65% and Baqian Oil Services (02178) up 7.14% [4] - The geopolitical situation, including U.S. airstrikes in Iran, has led to increased oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising over 6% at one point [5] Shipping Sector - Shipping stocks performed strongly, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) up 19.8% [6] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions could disrupt global shipping routes, leading to increased interest in shipping stocks [6] New Consumption Trends - New consumption concepts are gaining traction, with companies like Shangmei (02145) and Maogeping (01318) reporting significant growth during the 618 shopping festival [7] - Analysts suggest that sectors meeting emotional value and high-frequency consumption criteria are likely to see long-term growth [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Tianrui Group Cement (01252) saw a significant increase of 14.81% after announcing a recovery in profits [8] - Xiaocaiyuan (00999) rose 10.15% following the lifting of a share lock-up period [9] New Listings - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) surged 78.71% on its debut, focusing on innovative therapies for cancer and other diseases [10] - Baize Medical (02609) also performed well, increasing 42.18% after its IPO [11] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) saw a slight decline of 0.13% on its first trading day [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with an initial coverage forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.01 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [12][13]. Core Insights - The company, as one of the earliest established Chinese cosmetics firms, has achieved cyclical growth through strong channel and marketing capabilities, supported by a mature supply chain and deep in-house research and development capabilities [5][12]. - The main brand, Han Shu, is expanding its product categories and channels, with a focus on high-priced single products and reducing reliance on high-fee Douyin channels, which is expected to improve sales structure and contribute to revenue and performance elasticity [5][12]. - The sub-brands are well diversified, with the mother and baby brand Newpage showing strong growth, indicating potential for long-term group expansion [5][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading multi-brand cosmetics firm in China, covering various categories including skincare, maternal and infant care, hair care, and makeup, with a price range from mass-market to high-end [9][21]. - The main brand, Han Shu, is projected to achieve a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 82% of total revenue [21][23]. Development Review - The company's growth can be divided into four phases: 1. Startup Phase (2003-2007) and Rapid Growth Phase (2008-2018) where it leveraged offline stores and emerging channels to establish its brand. 2. Adjustment Phase (2019-2022) where it faced challenges due to channel and consumer concept changes, leading to a brand repositioning. 3. Transformation Breakthrough Phase (2023-present) where it successfully capitalized on the Douyin live-streaming e-commerce trend, revitalizing the Han Shu brand [10][33]. Growth Potential - The main brand is entering a stable growth phase, with future revenue growth expected from category expansion into high-priced products and channel diversification beyond Douyin [11][12]. - The sub-brands are positioned to support long-term group expansion, with a comprehensive product matrix that enhances the company's competitive edge in the cosmetics market [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the optimization of Han Shu's sales structure and the contribution of sub-brands to the company's long-term growth potential, projecting significant profit growth in the coming years [12][23].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The beauty sector experienced a stable conclusion during the 618 shopping festival, with significant changes in platform and brand dynamics driven by reduced commission policies and interest-based content ecosystems [1][2] - The total GMV for beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms (Taobao, JD, Douyin, Kuaishou) during the 618 period was between 600-700 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] - Taobao maintained the largest market share at 41.3%, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][13] Summary by Sections E-commerce Platform Dynamics - Douyin's beauty segment is rapidly growing, supported by merchant subsidies and interest-driven consumer engagement, achieving double-digit growth [2] - Douyin's promotional strategies included a 1.4 billion yuan subsidy for merchants in May, with individual merchant reductions reaching up to 2.99 million yuan [2] Skincare and Makeup Categories - In the skincare category, domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu led the market, maintaining their top positions on Taobao and Douyin [3] - The top five brands in the skincare category on Taobao remained stable, with Proya and Han Shu continuing to dominate [3] - In the makeup and fragrance category, new domestic brands are emerging, with Ti Luo Wei achieving rapid growth by focusing on base makeup products [4] International and Domestic Brand Strategies - International brands are performing well due to localized marketing strategies and a willingness to engage with local consumers [8] - Domestic brands are expected to break out of the competitive cycle focused on ingredients and efficacy, emphasizing brand influence and comprehensive user experience [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic companies with strong brand equity and comprehensive channel strategies, particularly Proya and Han Shu [9] - Highlight technology-driven skincare brands like Betaini and Juzi Biology that target specific consumer needs [9] - Consider daily chemical brands with strong cost-performance ratios and excellent management of emerging channels, such as Runben and Dengkang [9]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: 基石药业-B (02616) rose over 5% after its drug for lung cancer,舒格利单抗, received long-term survival data recognition in The Lancet Oncology, reinforcing its position as a first-line treatment in Europe [2] - Key Point 2: 海昌海洋公园 (02255) increased by over 4% as a major shareholder, 祥源控股, is set to acquire a 38.6% stake for HKD 22.95 billion, potentially alleviating liquidity pressures [2] - Key Point 3: 冠忠巴士 (00306) surged 27% with a projected 143% increase in annual pre-tax profit to HKD 165 million, driven by revenue growth, reduced fuel costs, and autonomous driving licenses [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: 东方表行 (00398) fell over 5% due to a 5.2% decline in revenue and a 20% drop in net profit, attributed to weak luxury goods demand amid geopolitical conflicts and interest rate fluctuations [2] - Key Point 2: 北森控股 (09669) plummeted over 17% as its adjusted annual EBITDA was only HKD 28.9 million, with Everbright Securities lowering revenue forecasts by 10%-15% due to growth challenges [3] - Key Point 3: 顺丰控股 (06936) rose over 6% to a new high, with May express delivery revenue increasing by 13.4%, and the scaling of unmanned delivery vehicles potentially opening up future profit opportunities [3] Group 3 - Key Point 1: 中国中免 (01880) increased by over 5% as it accelerates the expansion of its duty-free stores, with 4 already opened and 9 more in preparation, benefiting from favorable policies [3] - Key Point 2: 华虹半导体 (01347) rose over 7% with a capacity utilization rate of 102.7%, and Tianfeng Securities optimistic about future contributions of USD 1.28 billion from its 9th factory [3] - Key Point 3: 网龙 (00777) increased over 3% after showcasing AI digital human presentation technology at a UN conference, launching the "EDA Education Metaverse" strategy, which catalyzed a revaluation of AI [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27/22x for those years. The target price is raised by 55% to HKD 85, indicating a 15% upside potential based on the company's positive fundamentals and improved sector valuation [1]. Company Status - CICC recently invited the company to a mid-term strategy meeting to discuss its operational status and development strategy. The company’s main brand, Han Shu, has optimized its Douyin channel live-streaming structure, with rapid growth in external channels. The second-tier products and categories are showing good growth trends, while the small brand Newpage maintains high growth and profitability. The optimization of channels and brand structure is expected to enhance the company's overall profitability [2]. Channel and Product Performance - Han Shu's Douyin channel has seen a GMV increase of 13% year-on-year in May, maintaining its position as the top beauty brand on Douyin. The optimization of live-streaming structure has led to a 71% year-on-year increase in self-broadcasting and product card GMV. The overall GMV for Han Shu on Douyin from May 1 to June 14 increased by 18% year-on-year, with significant growth in Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, and other external channels [3]. - The second-tier product, the White Waist series, has increased its GMV share to 27% in May, with high-margin lines and makeup series contributing over 10% each. The hair care category has also started to gain traction, indicating a richening product matrix [3]. Brand Matrix and New Product Launches - The multi-brand matrix is becoming more complete, with Newpage continuing its high growth trend, showing a GMV increase of 157% year-on-year from January to May 2025. The brand's profit margin is significantly higher than the company's overall margin. The company plans to launch new brands in the second half of the year, including NAN Beauty and the IP collaboration with the baby care brand Bread Superhero, which is expected to open a new growth curve [4]. Talent and Organizational Development - The company is continuously optimizing its organizational structure and strengthening its talent pool, having recently recruited a former Tmall beauty general manager to partner with NAN Beauty. The company plans to follow a "2+2+2" strategy over the next three years, focusing on skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products, with six major brands. The long-term growth potential as a multi-category, multi-brand cosmetics group is viewed positively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the domestic beauty and skincare industry, particularly focusing on the potential of Chinese brands expanding into Southeast Asia [4]. Core Insights - The domestic skincare market is entering a steady growth phase, with the market size projected to increase from CNY 244.9 billion in 2019 to CNY 271.2 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 2.1%. The color cosmetics market is expected to grow from CNY 59.3 billion to CNY 62.0 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 0.9% [6][20]. - Southeast Asia is positioned as a crucial trade hub with high economic growth rates, where countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are expected to maintain GDP growth around 5% from 2024 to 2026, outpacing developed nations by 1.5%-2% [6][8]. - The increasing e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia is driving online beauty consumption, with Indonesia's e-commerce sales for skincare rising from 1.3% in 2016 to 20.9% in 2021 [6][8]. - The Southeast Asian market exhibits a layered consumer demand, with high-end brands having potential in Singapore, while mid-range brands can thrive in Malaysia, and cost-effective products are favored in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam [6][8]. Summary by Sections Supply Chain Advantages - Domestic beauty brands are enhancing their supply chain capabilities, which allows them to explore new markets abroad. The trend of outsourcing to export-oriented brands is becoming a viable strategy for differentiation [6][20]. - The geographical advantages and high growth potential of Southeast Asia make it an attractive market for beauty consumption [6][29]. Production and Channel Flexibility - The report highlights the role of OEM/ODM factories in enabling brands to scale quickly in Southeast Asia, reducing investment risks and allowing brands to focus on marketing [46]. - The rise of online sales channels, particularly through platforms like Shopee and Lazada, is transforming the beauty retail landscape in Southeast Asia, with significant sales contributions from these platforms [60]. Consumer Demand Segmentation - The report identifies three tiers of consumer demand in Southeast Asia, suggesting that high-end brands can succeed in Singapore, while mid-range brands can find opportunities in Malaysia, and budget-friendly products are suitable for Indonesia and Vietnam [6][8]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing operations and leveraging supply chain advantages for Chinese beauty brands entering Southeast Asia, with several companies already establishing a presence in the region [7][48].

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Shangmei Co., Ltd. for 2024 shows impressive revenue and profit growth, but reveals significant reliance on a single brand and channel, raising concerns about sustainability and long-term growth [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shangmei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 6.793 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million RMB, up 74.0% [1][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 75.2%, while the net profit margin was only 11.83% [8][10]. Brand Dependency - The company heavily relies on the KANS brand, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with sales reaching 5.591 billion RMB, a growth of 80.9% [4][5]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as One Leaf and Baby Elephant, showed significantly lower sales figures, indicating a "one strong, multiple weak" brand structure [2][4]. Channel Dependency - Online sales contributed 90.5% of total revenue in 2024, with 61.35 billion RMB generated from online channels, marking an increase of approximately 82.6% [6][7]. - The majority of online sales came from the Douyin platform, where KANS brand's GMV reached 6.784 billion RMB, growing 103% year-on-year [6][10]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Marketing expenses accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue in 2024, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 3.947 billion RMB, a 76.2% increase [8][10]. - R&D expenditure was only 1.8 billion RMB, representing a mere 2.6% of total revenue, highlighting a significant imbalance between marketing and product development [10]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion RMB by 2025 and 30 billion RMB by 2030, but this ambition is contingent on overcoming brand and channel dependencies [10].

Group 1 - The event focuses on new technologies and market expansion in the electric two-wheeler battery swap industry [3] - The conference will feature the release of the "2025 China Two-Wheeler Battery Swap and Battery TOP Rankings and Industry White Paper," which includes rankings for top electric two-wheeler manufacturers and battery suppliers [3] - The global battery swap market for two-wheelers is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [3] Group 2 - The event will take place on July 10-11, 2025, at the Hongdoushan Villa in Wuxi, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4] - The agenda includes various specialized forums discussing trends in electric two-wheeler technology, battery safety, and the impact of new national standards [5] - Key topics will include high-safety sodium-ion batteries, lithium battery technology advancements, and the application of new materials and processes [5] Group 3 - Notable participating companies include major players in the electric two-wheeler and battery sectors, such as Yadea, Aima, and CATL, among others [7][8] - The event will also attract companies from the IoT and communication module sectors, as well as battery management system (BMS) providers [7][8] - The conference aims to facilitate collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry stakeholders, including manufacturers, investors, and media [8]

Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand cosmetics group established in 2004, rebranded in 2015, and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022, covering skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup products [1] - The main brand, Han Shu, launched in 2003, is projected to be the second-largest domestic beauty brand in terms of online GMV in 2024, with the highest growth rate among leading beauty brands [1] - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, expecting rapid revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59.3% for revenue and 130.5% for net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1] Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry has shown fluctuating growth since 2020, with a projected market size of 537.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year decline [2] - Mass-market cosmetics are expected to outperform high-end products, indicating a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [2] - In terms of product categories, makeup and infant care are expected to perform better than the overall cosmetics market [2] - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels to gain market share, with Douyin emerging as a significant platform, where Han Shu ranked first in GMV for beauty products in 2023 [2] Brand Performance - Han Shu is positioned as a mass-market brand focusing on scientific anti-aging, targeting a broad user base and expanding through new product launches and category extensions [2] - The brand "Yi Ye" is capitalizing on the children's care market, expecting triple-digit revenue growth for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024, supported by endorsements from well-known actors and parenting experts [2] - Other potential brands include a hair care brand targeting hair loss and a makeup brand in collaboration with makeup artists, indicating a strategy to diversify growth avenues [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.74 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 yuan [3] - The estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23, 18, and 14 times, respectively [3] - A target price of 86 HKD is set for the company, with an initial "buy" rating based on absolute and relative valuation results [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 86 HKD, based on absolute and relative valuation results [4][14][6]. Core Insights - The company, Shumei Co., Ltd. (2145.HK), is a multi-brand cosmetics group that has shown remarkable growth, particularly through its main brand, KANS, which has become the second-largest domestic beauty brand in terms of online GMV by 2024 [2][23]. - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, leading to a significant increase in revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024, with projected compound annual growth rates of 59.3% and 130.5%, respectively [2][4]. - The cosmetics industry in China is experiencing both growth and competition, with opportunities in lower-tier markets and niche segments, particularly in color cosmetics and infant care [3][72]. Company Overview - Shumei Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and went public in 2022, offering a wide range of products including skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup [2][23]. - The main brand, KANS, has been a significant contributor to the company's revenue, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 55.91 billion CNY [25][23]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 67.93 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.1%, and a net profit of 7.81 billion CNY, up 69.4% from the previous year [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.6 billion CNY, 13.8 billion CNY, and 17.4 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 CNY [4][14]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry is projected to reach a scale of 537.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards cost-effective products [3][72]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by domestic brands leveraging online channels, with Douyin emerging as a key platform for growth [3][72]. Growth Drivers - The main brand KANS is expected to continue its growth trajectory through product innovation and channel diversification, while the emerging brand Yipai is anticipated to achieve triple-digit growth in revenue for 2023 and 2024 [4][10]. - The company is also exploring new brands and product lines, such as the hair care brand Jifang and the makeup brand NAN beauty, to create multiple growth avenues [4][12].