Core Viewpoint - The stock of Up Beauty Holdings (02145) has risen over 3%, reaching a new high of 102.5 HKD, driven by strong performance in the domestic beauty market, particularly for the brand Han Shu [1] Company Performance - Up Beauty Holdings' main brand Han Shu has achieved sales exceeding 700 million RMB in August, solidifying its leading position in the Douyin beauty market [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecast for the company for 2025-2027 by 1-5%, which is 3-8% higher than market expectations, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [1] Market Outlook - The beauty industry in mainland China is experiencing rapid growth, and Up Beauty Holdings is expected to further increase its market share due to its multi-brand strategy, R&D capabilities, and enhanced brand value [1] - CICC's research report indicates that the company is successfully expanding its main brand and has seen multiple smaller brands gain traction, validating its multi-brand group strategy [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) rose over 3%, reaching a new high of 102.5 HKD since its listing, with a current price of 101.1 HKD and a trading volume of 92.94 million HKD [1] - In August, domestic beauty brands showed strong momentum in the Douyin beauty market, with Han Shu leading the market with sales exceeding 700 million HKD [1] - Morgan Stanley expects the group to enhance its market share due to its multi-brand portfolio, R&D capabilities, omnichannel strategy, and increasing brand value, with a positive long-term outlook for the company [1] Group 2 - CICC's research report highlighted successful category expansion for the main brand Han Shu and rapid growth of several small brands since mid-year, validating the multi-brand group strategy [1] - The company is seen as having a solid foundation for building a platform-based cosmetics group, supported by talent and organizational structure [1] - The long-term growth prospects of the company are viewed positively by CICC [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that CICC has raised the target price for Shangmei Holdings by 5% to HKD 111, maintaining an "outperform" rating based on the potential for new brand growth to boost medium to long-term prospects [1] - The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base [1] - Since mid-year, several small brands have rapidly gained traction, and the multi-brand group strategy is gradually being realized [1] - In the long term, talent and organizational structure provide foundational support for building a platform-based cosmetics group [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Summary of Chicmax Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Chicmax - **Industry**: Cosmetics - **Market Position**: Ranked among the top ten domestic cosmetics companies in China and top 15 in the overall beauty and personal care market in 2024 with a market share of 1.4% and retail sales of Rmb7.7 billion [12][17] Key Points and Arguments - **Long-term Vision**: Chicmax aims to be the No.1 domestic cosmetics group and one of the top 10 global cosmetics groups, supported by a clear strategic roadmap focusing on cosmetics, multi-brand operations, and globalization [1][12] - **Multi-brand Portfolio**: The company operates a multi-brand portfolio covering six categories: mass skincare, maternity & childcare, toiletries, color cosmetics, functional skincare, and high-end skincare [1][12] - **Financial Performance**: - Adjusted EPS for 2026E increased from Rmb3.56 to Rmb3.67 [5] - Revenue growth expected at a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2027E, with earnings growth at 32% CAGR [13][18] - Operating margin projected to rise from 10.9% in 2024 to 14.1% in 2027E, driven by gross margin expansion from 75.2% to 78.4% [13][18] - **Brand Performance**: - KANS brand is the number one cosmetics brand on Douyin with over Rmb6.5 billion GMV in 2024 [12][17] - Newpage brand sales increased by 147% in 1H25 to Rmb397 million, exceeding 2024 levels [7] - **Sales Target**: Chicmax targets Rmb30 billion in sales by 2030, with specific targets for its brands: KANS (Rmb20 billion), growth brands (Rmb8 billion), and seed brands (Rmb2 billion) [7] Financial Estimates - **Revenue Projections**: - FY24A: Rmb6,793 million - FY25E: Rmb8,638 million - FY26E: Rmb10,839 million - FY27E: Rmb12,673 million [11] - **Adjusted Net Income**: - FY25E: Rmb1,148 million - FY26E: Rmb1,462 million - FY27E: Rmb1,778 million [11] - **Valuation**: DCF-based price target of HK$114 implies a P/E of 30x for 2026E and 24x for 2027E [14][19] Risks and Catalysts - **Downside Risks**: Include product quality deterioration, inflation, challenges in new brand incubation, and government regulations [21] - **Upside Catalysts**: Success in new brand incubation and better-than-expected growth in core brands [21] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: Chicmax is expected to benefit from the fast growth and local pride trend in China's cosmetics industry, leveraging its multi-brand portfolio and strong R&D capabilities [13][18] - **Corporate Structure**: The Brand BU Autonomy structure allows brand GMs full autonomy on operations, enhancing responsiveness to market dynamics and operational efficiency [7] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Chicmax's strategic direction, financial performance, market positioning, and potential risks and opportunities in the cosmetics industry.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Shiseido's performance in the first half of the year is robust, with the company aiming to become the leading cosmetics group in China and one of the top ten globally [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company's strategy is clear, focusing on cosmetics and developing a multi-brand approach that encompasses six major categories while promoting globalization [1] - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the company's long-term development and has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The target price for Shiseido is set at 114 HKD, with a maintained "buy" rating [1] - The report suggests that Shiseido is likely to benefit from the growth of the Chinese cosmetics market and the trend towards local brands [1] - The company is expected to further expand its market share due to its multi-brand strategy, research and development capabilities, omnichannel approach, and brand value advantages [1]

该行将上美股份2025至2027年预测盈利上调1%至5%，预估较市场共识高出3%至8%。基于现金流折现 率作估值，给予新目标价为114港元，暗示2026至2027年预测市盈率分别为30倍及24倍，维持"增持"评 级。摩通预期，上美股份将承载中国化妆品行业的快速成长，及本土自豪趋势，进一步扩大市场份额， 凭借其成功的多品牌组合、稳健的研发、完善的全渠道布局及不断提升的品牌价值。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，上美股份今年上半年业绩稳健，对其长期愿景感到鼓舞，因其目标是成为国 内第一大化妆品集团，及全球十大化妆品集团之一。公司拥有清晰的战略路线图，包括专注单一领域 (化妆品)、多品牌(涵盖六大类别，包括大众护肤、母婴护理、盥洗用品、彩妆、功能性护肤及高端护 肤)及全球化；凭借其品牌业务单位自主结构及激励的人才团队，摩通对公司的长期愿景持乐观态度。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，根据现金流量折现法(DCF)予上美股份(02145)最新目标价为 114港元，对应2026/27年30倍及24倍市盈率，维持"增持"评级。该行预计，集团将凭借多品牌组合、研 发实力、全渠道和不断提升的品牌价值，以及随着内地美妆行业快速增长，将进一步提升市场份额。 2025年上半年集团业绩稳健，该行对集团的长期愿景持乐观态度。该行将2025-27年盈利预测上调1- 5%，较市场普遍预期高出3-8%。 ...

摩根大通发布研报称，根据现金流量折现法(DCF)予上美股份(02145)最新目标价为114港元，对应 2026/27年30倍及24倍市盈率，维持"增持"评级。该行预计，集团将凭借多品牌组合、研发实力、全渠 道和不断提升的品牌价值，以及随着内地美妆行业快速增长，将进一步提升市场份额。2025年上半年集 团业绩稳健，该行对集团的长期愿景持乐观态度。该行将2025-27年盈利预测上调1-5%，较市场普遍预 期高出3-8%。 ...