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申洲国际:全球针织成衣龙头,关税不改核心优势-20250416
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-16 10:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with strong profitability driven by several advantages, including robust R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory layout [2]. - The company has a manageable risk profile regarding tariffs, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S., and potential tariff impacts on overall orders estimated to be less than 3% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, with positive trends in orders from Uniqlo, Adidas, and Nike, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas, enhancing its market position [15]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 28.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.79%, and a net profit of CNY 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15]. Investment Logic - The company’s diversified production capacity and collaboration with major clients provide a competitive edge, with the potential to increase market share amid industry disruptions [3]. - The company's management has shown confidence in its future by increasing their shareholdings during recent market fluctuations [3][4]. Short-term Orders - The company is expected to see improved order conditions due to the recovery of its core clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive sales trends [4]. - The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers they work with [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is projected to be CNY 4.39, CNY 4.91, and CNY 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 11 times for 2025 [5]. - The report indicates that the company’s recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target valuation based on a PE of 14 times for 2025 [5].
申洲国际(02313):全球针织成衣龙头,关税不改核心优势
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-16 09:59
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with a strong client base including Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas. Its high profitability is attributed to several advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory locations [2][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, leading to improved order conditions. The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a significant portion of its production in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, accounting for 47%, 27%, and 26% of capacity respectively [2][55]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.79%, and a net profit of RMB 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15][25]. Investment Logic - The company has a manageable risk profile compared to its peers, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S. The potential impact of tariffs is estimated to be less than 3% on overall orders [3][63]. - The recent tariff situation is expected to accelerate the exit of smaller competitors, allowing the company to capture additional market share due to its stronger financial and operational resilience [3][64]. Short-term Orders - The company is optimistic about order improvements from its four major clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive trends. Adidas is expected to recover its brand strength, which will benefit the company [4][11]. - The long-term market share is projected to increase as major clients reduce their supplier base, enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.39, RMB 4.91, and RMB 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE of 11 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation opportunity [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target price set at HKD 65.17 [5].
港股概念追踪|美国关税政策或重创亚洲服装纺织业 订单逐步向海外龙头企业集中(附概念股)
智通财经网· 2025-04-14 01:46
美国耶鲁大学预算实验室4月10日发布的最新研究估算显示,美国的关税政策将使美国家庭平均每年损 失4700美元。报告显示,关税对服装和纺织品的影响尤为显著,短期内消费者将面临服装价格上涨64% 的局面。长期来看,服装价格将上涨27%。 据统计,目前美国只有2.5%的服装和1%的鞋类为本土制造,越南等亚洲国家则是美国服装鞋帽的主要 进口来源地。越南纺织服装协会的数据显示,2024年越南纺织品服装出口额达440亿美元,美国是其最 大市场,耐克、露露乐蒙等服装品牌超过35%的产能聚集在越南。随着美国所谓"对等关税"措施即将实 施,这些服装品牌将被迫提价。 智通财经APP获悉,4月11日,工业和信息化部办公厅发布关于开展纺织服装特色产业集群建设工作的 通知。 对重点培育的纺织服装特色产业集群,工业和信息化部统筹推动集群建设工作,加强集群间产业对接, 推动集群数字化转型升级,强化产业集群创意设计能力,提升特色产品附加值,提高特色产业集群的竞 争优势。 银河证券发布行业周报称,国内制造业服企布局从产能规模增长逐步向高质量增长转变,发力高质量客 户和中高端产品,而高价值产品价格具有一定的调控空间。纺织服企的国际化产能布局优势 ...
纺织服装行业周报:安踏收购德国狼爪品牌,纺织白马股价短期超跌-20250413
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth in domestic demand in 2025 [5][12]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index dropping by 5.7% from April 7 to April 11, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.3 percentage points [6]. - Anta's acquisition of the German brand Jack Wolfskin is seen as a strategic move to enhance its outdoor segment, with the brand expected to complement Anta's existing portfolio [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, particularly in light of changing international trade dynamics [12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has shown weakness, with significant declines in both the apparel and textile manufacturing indices [6][9]. - Recent data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing and textiles, totaling 262.4 billion yuan in January and February [30]. Company Developments - Anta's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in sales across its brands, including a 70% increase in other brands [11]. - The report highlights the strong financial performance of Huayi Group, which reported a 19.35% increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 24 billion yuan [11]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the textile supply chain, noting a significant imbalance in global tariff structures, particularly affecting Chinese exports [13][14]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to tariff challenges, with companies focusing on diversifying supply chains and reducing costs [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in quality domestic brands that are poised for recovery, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments, as well as in home textiles and children's clothing [5][12]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Huayi Group, among others [5].
美国消费龙头未来指引谨慎,关注关税推进进度
Orient Securities· 2025-04-08 08:05
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]
纺织品和服装行业研究运动品牌2024韧性显著,运动制造订单改善
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-04 10:30
Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, indicating strong operational resilience and growth potential in a challenging retail environment [5][27]. Core Insights - The sports industry demonstrated strong operational resilience in 2024, with major companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees showing varied revenue growth rates of +13.58%, +3.90%, -5.36%, and +19.59% respectively [1][7]. - The report anticipates continued stable growth for leading sports brands in 2025, with projections for Anta's main brand to maintain high single-digit growth and FILA to achieve mid-single-digit growth [13][14]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Anta Sports and FILA maintained steady operations, with revenue reaching 70.826 billion CNY, while 361 Degrees capitalized on lower-tier markets, achieving a revenue increase of 19.59% to 10.074 billion CNY [1][10]. - Li Ning's revenue remained stable, with a focus on e-commerce and product diversification, leading to a 10.3% increase in online sales [9]. Marketing and Inventory Management - Anta Sports increased its sales expense ratio to 36.21%, reflecting higher investments in new product promotions and channel expansion [2][16]. - Inventory turnover days improved for Xtep International, decreasing by 10 days to 79 days, while 361 Degrees saw an increase in turnover days due to strategic inventory buildup for e-commerce [2][17]. Manufacturing Sector - Major manufacturers like Wah Lee Group and Shenzhou International reported revenue growth of 19.35% and 14.79% respectively, driven by increased demand and efficient operations [3][22]. - The overall profitability of the manufacturing sector improved, with Wah Lee's net profit margin at 15.36% and Shenzhou's gross margin increasing to 28.10% [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning are well-positioned to outperform the industry due to their operational strengths and market strategies [5][27]. - For the manufacturing sector, Wah Lee Group is recommended as a strong player, with potential for increased market share amid industry consolidation due to external pressures [5][27].
申洲国际近一个月首次现身港股通成交活跃榜 净卖出0.12亿港元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-03 14:12
Core Insights - On April 3, 2023, Shenzhou International made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month [1] - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 573.05 billion, accounting for 44.62% of the day's total trading volume [1] - The net buying amount for the active stocks was HKD 192.38 billion [1] Trading Activity Summary - Xiaomi Group-W had the highest trading volume at HKD 150.13 billion, followed by Alibaba-W at HKD 98.68 billion and Tencent Holdings at HKD 86.39 billion [1] - Among the stocks listed, Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings were the most frequently appearing stocks, each appearing 23 times in the past month [1] - Shenzhou International recorded a trading volume of HKD 10.54 billion with a net selling amount of HKD 0.12 billion, and its stock price fell by 14.15% on that day [1] Individual Stock Performance - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) had a trading volume of HKD 43.87 billion with a net buying amount of HKD 8.54 billion [1] - Meituan-W had a trading volume of HKD 25.53 billion with a net buying amount of HKD 5.61 billion [1] - The performance of other notable stocks included: - Yingfu Fund: Trading volume of HKD 61.51 billion, net buying amount of HKD 60.72 billion - China National Offshore Oil Corporation: Trading volume of HKD 12.04 billion, net buying amount of HKD 1.91 billion [1]
国海证券晨会纪要-2025-03-31
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-31 01:39
Group 1: Key Insights from Reports - The report highlights that overseas growth remains strong, driven by both IP and product categories, with Pop Mart achieving a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [4][5] - The adjusted net profit for Pop Mart reached 3.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 185.9% [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.8146 RMB per share, totaling 1.094 billion RMB, which represents 35% of the net profit [6] Group 2: Company Performance and Growth - Xingtong Co. reported a revenue of 1.515 billion RMB in 2024, up 22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million RMB, marking a 39% increase [12][13] - China Foreign Transport achieved a revenue of 105.621 billion RMB in 2024, a 3.9% increase, although net profit decreased by 7.2% to 3.918 billion RMB [16][17] - The company’s logistics and agency business volumes grew steadily, with contract logistics volume increasing by 4% and sea freight agency volume by 13% [17][18] Group 3: Industry Trends and Developments - The distributed energy storage demand is accelerating, with a focus on sodium battery solutions and new product iterations [21][24] - The report indicates that the global industrial storage market is entering a new growth phase, driven by economic viability and increasing backup power demands [24] - The wind power sector is experiencing a surge in component production, with significant increases in offshore wind projects expected in 2025 [25][26] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart, projecting revenues of 21.749 billion RMB, 30.671 billion RMB, and 38.205 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 5.516 billion RMB, 8.026 billion RMB, and 9.974 billion RMB respectively [11] - Xingtong Co. is also rated as a "buy," with projected revenues of 1.943 billion RMB, 2.495 billion RMB, and 2.991 billion RMB for 2025-2027, alongside net profits of 417 million RMB, 494 million RMB, and 576 million RMB [15] - China Foreign Transport is expected to see revenues of 113.848 billion RMB, 118.386 billion RMB, and 122.636 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 4.154 billion RMB, 4.300 billion RMB, and 4.429 billion RMB [20]
申洲国际(02313):2024年业绩点评:收入利润表现亮眼,盈利能力显著提升
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-30 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 28.66 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.24 billion RMB, up 36.9% year-on-year. The net profit margin was 21.8%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, and the gross profit margin was 28.1%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue growth was driven by effective customer demand expansion, recovery in domestic production capacity utilization, and enhanced production efficiency in overseas facilities [6][9]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.72 billion RMB, 35.04 billion RMB, and 38.89 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.64 billion RMB, 7.38 billion RMB, and 8.33 billion RMB [8][9]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue breakdown by category: Sports category revenue was 19.80 billion RMB (up 9.8%, 69.1% share), Leisure category revenue was 7.21 billion RMB (up 27.1%, 25.1% share), Underwear category revenue was 1.44 billion RMB (up 34.6%, 5.0% share), and Other knitted products revenue was 0.22 billion RMB (up 10.9%, 0.8% share) [6]. - The revenue by region showed that Europe contributed 5.19 billion RMB (up 3.2%, 18.1% share), the US contributed 4.61 billion RMB (up 18.9%, 16.1% share), Japan contributed 4.83 billion RMB (up 31.5%, 16.9% share), Other markets contributed 5.97 billion RMB (up 13.4%, 20.8% share), and the domestic market contributed 8.06 billion RMB (up 13.2%, 28.1% share) [6]. Capacity and Efficiency - The company has enhanced its production capacity through the completion of a new garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, which is expected to employ around 6,000 workers. Additionally, a new fabric production capacity of 200 tons per day is being established in Vietnam [9]. - The overall efficiency of overseas factories has improved, contributing to a significant increase in profit margins due to higher capacity utilization and effective cost control [6][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with expected revenue growth rates of 15% in 2024, followed by 11%, 10%, and 11% in the subsequent years [8]. - The projected net profit growth rates are 37% for 2024, followed by 6%, 11%, and 13% in the following years [8].
申洲国际(02313):2024年业绩点评:业绩超预期恢复,预计25年稳健增长
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-30 08:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue of 28.66 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.79% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.24 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.94% [9] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with net profit forecasts adjusted upwards to 6.62 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 24.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.12% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to increase by 3.8 percentage points to 28.1%, with the first half of 2024 showing a gross margin of 29% and the second half at 27.4% [3] - The company plans to acquire a fabric factory in Vietnam, which is expected to have a production capacity of 200 tons per day once operational [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 4.15 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.30 [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from sportswear, casual wear, and underwear is expected to grow by 9.8%, 27.1%, and 34.6% respectively in 2024 [9] - The contribution from major clients such as Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, and Puma is expected to increase, with respective revenue growth rates of 3.8%, 23.3%, 35.4%, and 10.9% [9] - The company’s revenue from different regions is projected to grow, with Japan showing the highest growth rate of 31.5% [9]