Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313), highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth as core customer orders normalize, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and improved profitability by 2026 [1] Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends, particularly with Nike and Fast Retailing, are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's inventory in North America has normalized, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026; Fast Retailing projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well across regions [1] - Other customers are also expected to see healthy order growth, with PUMA currently in a stabilization phase [1] Product Categories - The leisure category is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 expected to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1] Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2] - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter Indonesia [2] Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional sportswear is expected to continue growing, providing long-term order support for the company [3] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance collaboration with leading sports brands, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International, highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth driven by the recovery of core customer orders, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and healthy revenue growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends are expected to drive a CAGR of over 10% for the company's revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's operational situation has improved, with North American inventory returning to normal, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026 [1] - Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to show strong performance across regions [1] - PUMA is currently in a period of adjustment, with stable short-term orders anticipated, while other customers are expected to see healthy growth in order volume [1] Group 2: Product Categories - The leisure category is projected to grow rapidly in 2025, with expectations for increased order growth in the sports category in 2026 due to events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup [1] - The proportion of leisure products is expected to decrease compared to 2025 [1] Group 3: Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain and potential market share growth [2] - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have 103,000 employees, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth anticipated in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, with Vietnam and Cambodia accounting for over 50% of garment production capacity, and plans to enter the Indonesian market [2] Group 4: Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional apparel is strong, with the company positioned to benefit from the growth of the sports category [2] - The company’s core customers include leading sports brands, and it is expected to capitalize on the increasing penetration rates in both global and Chinese markets [2] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage through superior fabric development capabilities and collaborative product creation with clients [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as one of Asia's largest integrated knitwear manufacturers, is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2026, driven by improving trends among core clients such as Nike and Fast Retailing [1][2]. Client Trends - Recent improvements in Nike's operations and normalized inventory levels in North America suggest a strong order recovery, with expectations for healthy growth in orders by 2026 [1]. - Fast Retailing is guiding for a 10.3% revenue growth in FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well, indicating strong order growth for the company [1]. - PUMA is currently in a transitional phase, with stable short-term orders anticipated, while other clients are expected to see healthy growth in order volumes [1]. Product Categories - The leisure category is projected to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 likely to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1]. Long-term Capacity and Market Position - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2]. - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% increase year-on-year, with further growth expected in 2025 [2]. - The company is expanding overseas capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter the Indonesian market [2]. Industry Growth Potential - The global and Chinese sportswear markets are expected to benefit from increasing penetration rates, providing long-term order demand growth for the company [2]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance product collaboration with clients, strengthening competitive advantages [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 31.61 billion, 35.15 billion, and 39.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 11.2%, and 11.1% respectively [3]. - Gross margins are projected to improve, with estimates of 27.4%, 28.2%, and 28.3% for the same years, as efficiency gains from new hires offset initial cost increases [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.47 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.29 billion yuan, with net profit margins of 20.5%, 21.2%, and 21.2% respectively [3]. Investment Outlook - The company's stock performance has diverged from Nike's since Q2 2025, with expectations for a recovery in core client orders leading to a phase of capacity-driven growth and improved profitability in 2026 [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.4 times for 2026, with a reasonable target PE of 15 times, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2026, driven by improving trends among core customers such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas [1][15]. - The company has a solid fundamental base and is positioned to benefit from the recovery of core customer orders, leading to a phase of capacity-driven growth and improved profitability quality [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The company is one of the largest integrated knitwear manufacturers in Asia, with a strong market position and a history of stable growth [14]. - Recent fluctuations in customer orders have been addressed through long-term asset investments and capacity expansion [2]. Customer Trends - Core customers like Nike and Uniqlo are showing positive trends, with Nike's inventory in North America returning to normal levels, which is expected to enhance order volumes [1][15]. - Adidas and Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent company) are also performing well, with Adidas showing strong growth across various regions [15][26]. Capacity and Production - The company has consistently invested in capacity expansion, with a projected employee count of 110,000 by mid-2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [2]. - The integrated supply chain is expected to enhance competitive advantages, particularly with over 50% of production capacity located in Vietnam and Cambodia [2]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 316.1 billion, 351.5 billion, and 390.7 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 11.2%, and 11.1% [4]. - Gross margins are expected to improve gradually, with estimates of 27.4%, 28.2%, and 28.3% for the same years [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company's stock price is currently trading at a PE ratio of 12.4 for 2026, with a target PE of around 15, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [5][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation improvement as core customer orders stabilize and profitability quality enhances [5][20].

Summary of Shenzhou International Conference Call Company Overview - Shenzhou International is the largest knitwear manufacturer in China with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 90 billion and annual revenue of RMB 28.7 billion. The company serves major clients including Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma, focusing on leisure, sports, and underwear categories [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Profit Growth - Shenzhou International has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in revenue, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, driven by customer structure optimization and capacity diversification [2][4]. - The company’s revenue structure is diversified, with 16% from the Americas, approximately 20% from Greater China, and 10%-20% from Europe, Japan, and other regions, effectively mitigating single-market risks [2][6]. Profitability Recovery - The gross margin had declined due to destocking, the pandemic, and rising costs but is gradually recovering through refined management, automation investments, and customer structure optimization, with expectations to return to historical highs [2][7]. Market Conditions - The overseas retail market is experiencing a mild recovery, with inventory-to-sales ratios returning to historical lows. Brands like Adidas and Uniqlo are entering a replenishment cycle, while Nike is expected to complete destocking by year-end, indicating a sustained improvement in industry order sentiment [2][9]. Long-term Industry Trends - The outsourcing ratio for sports brands is increasing, concentrating on leading suppliers. Shenzhou International stands out due to its global capacity expansion capabilities and R&D investments, with high industry entry barriers as the top ten suppliers dominate the market [2][9]. Client Concentration and Risk Management - Shenzhou has a high client concentration, with the top four clients accounting for 82% of revenue (Uniqlo 29%, Nike 23%, Adidas 20%, Puma 10%). This concentration allows the company to achieve scale effects and improve profitability while reducing growth risks associated with single-brand dependency [12]. Global Capacity Expansion - To address rising labor costs in China and enhance efficiency, Shenzhou has increased its overseas capacity, which currently accounts for about 55% of total capacity. Future expansions are planned in Cambodia and Indonesia to strengthen global competitiveness [15][16]. Automation and Employee Management - Shenzhou is at the forefront of automation in the industry, optimizing skills and processes to enhance efficiency. The company also emphasizes employee welfare, with average salaries around RMB 80,000 and monthly wages for frontline workers reaching RMB 8,000 to 10,000, contributing to low turnover rates and a stable workforce [19][17]. Integrated Production Model - The company employs an integrated production model, managing the entire process from yarn sourcing to garment manufacturing, which enhances value addition and results in a net profit margin of approximately 18%, higher than traditional manufacturers [20]. Future Growth Prospects - Looking ahead, several factors will continue to drive Shenzhou's growth, including ongoing automation, deepening the integrated production model, enhancing employee management, and expanding overseas capacity. Close collaboration with core brand clients will further solidify its market position [22][27]. Additional Insights - The company’s valuation has fluctuated over the years, with a significant drop since 2021 due to pandemic impacts and high client concentration risks. However, it is expected to recover as new product categories gain traction and overall revenue growth stabilizes [26][27]. This comprehensive analysis highlights Shenzhou International's strategic positioning, operational strengths, and market dynamics, providing a clear picture of its current status and future potential in the apparel manufacturing industry.

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Shenzhou International (02313.HK) by 570,700 shares on November 19, 2025, marking a decrease of 0.57% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling an increase of 742,900 shares [1][2] - In the last twenty trading days, there were eleven days of net increases, with a cumulative increase of 2,729,900 shares held by southbound funds [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 19, 2025, southbound funds hold a total of 99,277,500 shares of Shenzhou International, which represents 6.59% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited primarily engages in the production and sale of knitted apparel products, utilizing a combination of OEM and ODM manufacturing methods [2] - The company's product categories include sportswear, casual wear, underwear, and other knitted products, and it operates both domestically and internationally [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou International is a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer in China, maintaining strong partnerships with premium apparel brands like Nike, Adidas, PUMA, and Uniqlo, which positions the company favorably in the market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhou International is recognized as an "invisible champion" in the domestic knitwear manufacturing sector, achieving a vertical integration strategy that enhances operational efficiency [1] - The company has experienced steady revenue growth over the years, with gross margins ranging from 25% to 30%, although recent challenges such as factory shutdowns and rising labor costs have impacted profitability [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - In the short term, the apparel industry is transitioning from inventory destocking to a potential replenishment phase as major brands like Nike are expected to see operational improvements, which may lead to increased order volumes for upstream manufacturers [1] - Long-term trends indicate stable growth in downstream apparel consumption, diversification of brands, and an increase in outsourcing by brand owners, which will likely benefit upstream suppliers [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Shenzhou International has shifted its focus to higher-growth segments, particularly in sportswear, which has resulted in a higher concentration of clients and reduced revenue volatility [2] - The company has established a manufacturing system with R&D and high-end production in China and major production bases in Southeast Asia, leveraging labor and tax advantages while enhancing production efficiency through automation [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - As of September 30, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (PE_TTM) is projected to decline to 13X, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth this year, driven by increased contributions from existing clients like Adidas and Uniqlo, alongside a recovery in Nike's performance [3] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.78 billion, 7.72 billion, and 8.76 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 11X, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [3]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is expected to face pressure in 2025, with brand performance remaining subdued and manufacturing exports impacted by tariffs [1][2] - In 2026, manufacturing is anticipated to stabilize before brands, with investment opportunities focusing on resilient sectors such as outdoor sports, quality manufacturing firms benefiting from order recovery, and companies innovating in products and marketing [1][3] Industry Overview 2025 - Industry data indicates that apparel brand retail sales growth is slow, and textile manufacturing exports are weakening due to tariff impacts. Despite a low base in Q2 and Q3, growth accelerated in September and October [2] - The textile manufacturing sector experienced a high start but a decline in performance, while revenue drops in apparel and home textiles have narrowed. The sportswear segment showed better revenue growth, and online channels outperformed offline for home textiles [2] - The A-share textile and apparel index underperformed the broader market, with continuous downward adjustments in brand expectations and slow valuation increases in manufacturing [2] Outlook for 2026 - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize before the apparel sector, with structural opportunities in the industry. Key areas include the dominance of sports and outdoor categories, strong online growth driven by major home textile products, and new brands leveraging social media marketing and product iterations [3] - Brands with mid-to-high pricing power, the ability to explore niche markets, and innovative product offerings are likely to stand out in a cautious consumption environment [3] Manufacturing Opportunities - Tariff disruptions are showing signs of stabilization, with a recovery trend in exports of footwear and apparel products. Some raw materials, like wool, have seen a short-term price rebound [4] - Textile manufacturing firms are experiencing order pressures, but as tariff costs are gradually passed down, expectations for order stabilization have improved for Q4 and early next year. Companies with strong new product development and efficiency management are viewed favorably for both fundamental and valuation growth [4] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on three main areas: outdoor sports, quality manufacturing, and brand innovation. The outdoor sports sector is expected to have long-term growth advantages, while brands that can innovate products and drive structural price increases are also promising [5] - Specific companies to watch include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep in the sports sector; Shenzhou International, Huali Group, and Kai Run in manufacturing; and Bosideng and Haier in the apparel and home textile sector [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of value as an anchor in the textile and apparel industry, suggesting a shift towards innovative strategies to break through competitive pressures [1][3]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The textile and apparel index underperformed the broader market, with brand performance under pressure and manufacturing showing a high-to-low trend [4][9]. - Retail sales growth for apparel remained stable, with online channels outperforming offline, particularly in the second and third quarters [18][19]. - The overall performance of the textile manufacturing sector showed a decline in exports due to tariff impacts, with a notable slowdown in growth rates [28][30]. Group 2: 2026 Main Lines - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2026: 1. The outdoor sports segment is expected to thrive, focusing on niche positioning and technological innovation [3][5]. 2. High-quality products are anticipated to drive new demand, with opportunities in the trillion-yuan market for breakthrough players [3][5]. 3. Trade stability is expected, favoring leading manufacturers with improving market share and efficiency [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: outdoor sports, quality manufacturing, and brand innovation, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [5][6]. - Notable companies include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, which are positioned well for future growth [5][6]. Group 4: Company Performance - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector despite recent challenges [6][7]. - Companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning are projected to maintain strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective forecasts of 5.42 and 1.09 for 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that if Nike's sales and inventory situation reaches a turning point by the end of this year, upstream manufacturing companies are expected to see a rebound in orders due to new product development and replenishment of old products. This is anticipated to lead to a recovery in net profit margins for many companies next year [2][5] - The report recommends several textile manufacturing companies related to the Nike supply chain, including Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, Crystal International, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Weixing Co., as well as retail company Tmall [2][5] Summary by Sections Inventory Cycle and Manufacturing - The U.S. apparel inventory cycle serves as a good indicator of the upstream textile manufacturing sector's health. The report reviews the performance of Chinese apparel manufacturing companies during historical inventory phases, indicating that stock prices and valuations are likely to recover as the industry transitions from active destocking to active restocking [4][24] - In the short term, the report notes that the impact of tariffs is diminishing, allowing the manufacturing sector to return to fundamental logic, emphasizing the importance of the inventory cycle switch and Nike's recovery [4][32] - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards globalization and core supplier systems in the apparel industry, with brand companies increasingly relying on core suppliers, which enhances the competitive landscape for leading manufacturers [4][32] Individual Companies - The report emphasizes the potential recovery opportunities for leading manufacturers in the Nike supply chain. If Nike's sales and inventory situation improves as expected, upstream manufacturing companies will likely see a rebound in orders, leading to a recovery in net profit margins for many companies next year [2][5] - The report specifically recommends textile manufacturing companies such as Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, Crystal International, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Weixing Co., along with retail company Tmall, as key investment opportunities [2][5]