Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential through its dual beauty brands, with significant increases in GMV during the 618 sales event. Specifically, the brand "可复美" saw a GMV growth of over 60% year-on-year, while "可丽金" achieved over 100% growth [3] - The company is expected to accelerate new product launches in the beauty segment, with successful new products already released, including a face cream that ranked top in sales on major platforms [3] - The medical beauty pipeline is anticipated to grow rapidly due to channel and customer reuse, with a significant number of medical channels already established [3] - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 49.9 billion, 64.3 billion, and 79.5 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 19.9 billion, 25.3 billion, and 31.2 billion RMB for the same years [3] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,524 million RMB for 2023, with a projected revenue of 4,994 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 41.72% [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 1,452 million RMB, with projections of 1,993 million RMB for 2024, indicating a net profit growth rate of 37.25% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.49 RMB in 2023 to 1.94 RMB in 2024 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.98 in 2023 to 20.46 in 2024, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 52.0, indicating a potential upside of 20.1% from the current price of HKD 43.3 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, 巨子生物, reported impressive performance during the 618 shopping festival, with its brands 可复美 and 可丽金 achieving GMV growth of over 60% and 100% respectively. This strong performance led the management to raise the full-year earnings guidance, reflecting increased earnings certainty [2][3]. - The management has revised the 2024 revenue growth forecast to 35%-40% (previously around 30%) and adjusted net profit growth to 30%-35% (previously 22%-24%). The mid-year guidance also indicates a revenue increase of 40%-45% and net profit growth of 35%-40% [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong online presence and the successful performance of its core brands as key drivers for sustained growth in the second half of 2024 [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,524 million in 2023 to RMB 4,910 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,452 million in 2023 to RMB 1,894 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.5% [4][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with revenue reaching RMB 8,397 million by 2026 [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance during the 618 promotional event, with its brand Kefu Mei achieving over 60% year-on-year growth in GMV across all online channels, while Keli Jin saw a 100%+ increase [3][4]. - The strong brand momentum and the successful launch of new products are expected to drive steady growth in the cosmetics business, with the approval of medical aesthetic injection products anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [6][8]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 1.837 billion, 2.318 billion, and 2.778 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 19, and 16 times [6][10]. Performance Summary - Kefu Mei's performance during the 618 event included a 60%+ increase in GMV, with significant growth across various platforms: Tmall (+50%), Douyin (+65%), JD (+100%), and Vipshop (+200%) [4][5]. - Keli Jin also experienced rapid growth, with a 100%+ increase in GMV during the same period, driven by strong sales of its classic products and new launches [4][5]. - The company has established a strong brand identity in the collagen market, which is expected to continue benefiting from the industry's growth [6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 37.4% for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 33.2%, reflecting the strong performance of both brands during the promotional period [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 82.9% in 2024, indicating enhanced product strength and the positive impact of new product launches [7][10]. - The company's total revenue is forecasted to reach 4.843 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady increase to 7.571 billion yuan by 2026 [10].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 巨子生物(02367.HK) 2024 年 06 月 25 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:美容护理 当前价格(港币):43.40 元 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 巨子生物 恒生指数 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 | 恒生指数对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | |------------------|--------|--------|-------| | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -11.41 | -7.72 | 3.50 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -8.28 | -12.52 | -5.77 | | | | | | 相关研究 1.《巨子生物:23 年业绩超预期,静 待妆字新品放量 + 医 美 获 批 》, 2024.3.26 2.《巨子生物:23H1 收入、利润均超 预期,渠道转型+产品矩阵完善,巩固 胶原护肤龙头地位》,2023.8.29 3.《巨子生物(2367.HK)22 年报点 评:2022 年收入、利润略超预期,重 组 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60.83, indicating a potential upside of 32.5% from the current price of HKD 45.90 [3][27]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong online sales growth during the "618" shopping festival, with its brand "可复美" achieving over 60% year-on-year growth in GMV, while "可丽金" saw over 100% growth [1][11]. - The report highlights the successful performance of key products, particularly the collagen sticks and new focus cream, which have significantly contributed to the overall growth of the brand [1][11]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, especially with the anticipated approval of injectable collagen products within the year [1][27]. Financial Performance Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4,636 million in FY24 to RMB 7,682 million in FY26, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [2][27]. - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,738 million in FY24 to RMB 2,791 million in FY26, indicating a strong profitability outlook [2][27]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 83% over the next few years, showcasing the company's strong pricing power and cost management [2][27]. Market Positioning - The company ranks 11th in the Tmall fast-moving consumer goods sales ranking and 9th in the Douyin beauty list during the "618" festival, indicating a strong market presence among domestic brands [1][9][10]. - The report notes that the company's core products have maintained top positions in their respective categories on major e-commerce platforms, further solidifying its competitive advantage [1][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a 23.2x adjusted P/E ratio for FY24 and an 18.8x adjusted P/E ratio for FY25, suggesting that the stock is attractively valued relative to its growth prospects [1][27]. - The DCF analysis indicates a fair value of HKD 60.83 per share, based on a WACC of 10.6% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [24][27].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5][7]. Core Views - The recombinant collagen industry is experiencing high demand, with significant growth potential in market penetration. The medical dressing and functional skincare markets are projected to grow substantially, with expected CAGRs of 28.8% and 55.0% from 2022 to 2027, respectively [3][4]. - The company is a leader in recombinant collagen, having successfully developed and mass-produced recombinant collagen products. Its flagship brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, are key revenue drivers, with a revenue CAGR of 38.5% from 2019 to 2023 [3][4][19]. - The company's competitive advantage is built on a robust product, channel, and R&D strategy, with a strong focus on professional skincare and a well-established sales network [4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the first globally to achieve mass production of recombinant collagen products, focusing on functional skincare, medical devices, and special medical foods. It has eight brands and over 100 SKUs [15][19]. - The management team is experienced, with a strong background in biotechnology and a proven track record in the industry [16][17]. Market Potential - The recombinant collagen market is expected to grow significantly, with the medical dressing and functional skincare markets projected to reach $25.5 billion and $64.5 billion by 2027, respectively [3][4][25]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its innovative products and strong market presence [9][28]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 35.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 48.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.7% increase [19][20]. - The report forecasts revenues of 47.0 billion, 60.8 billion, and 75.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 18.6 billion, 23.1 billion, and 28.2 billion yuan [5][7]. Product and R&D Strategy - The company has a diverse product matrix, with a strong focus on high-demand skincare products. The flagship brands are performing well, contributing to a 99.5% revenue share from professional skincare products in 2023 [22][23]. - The R&D efforts are robust, with 93 patents filed and a strong pipeline of new products expected to drive future growth [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of HKD 55.90 to HKD 59.40 per share [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in collagen protein, with 24 years of R&D strength solidifying its product capabilities in beauty and healthcare. It focuses on functional skincare products, medical devices, and functional foods [1][22]. - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of HKD 35.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%, and a net profit of HKD 14.5 billion, up 44.9%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of its functional skincare brand [1][38]. - The collagen market has significant penetration potential, with the Chinese collagen product market expected to grow from HKD 28.8 billion in 2021 to HKD 54.7 billion by 2025, at a compound annual growth rate of 50% [1][45]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a global leader in recombinant collagen, having pioneered the development and mass production of recombinant collagen since its establishment in 2000 [22][1]. - It has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the founders holding 59.23% of the shares, ensuring strong management control [28][30]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2023, with revenue from skincare products reaching HKD 35.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [39][38]. - The gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 83.63% and 41.09%, respectively, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year due to increased sales costs [42][38]. Industry Analysis - The recombinant collagen market is in its early stages of explosive growth, with the company positioned to benefit from its established brand recognition and product offerings [2][1]. - The report highlights the expanding applications of collagen in various sectors, including medical and cosmetic industries, driven by increasing consumer demand for effective skincare solutions [45][1]. Product and R&D - The company has developed a comprehensive collagen molecular library and is actively involved in the rapid industrialization of its products, with a focus on differentiated skincare brands [1][22]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to R&D, which has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge in the market [1][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 17.47 billion, HKD 22.45 billion, and HKD 26.90 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [2][3]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a strong growth trajectory supported by the anticipated approval of medical injection products [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60.83, representing a potential upside of 22.0% from the current price of HKD 49.85 [1][3][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle, with significant sales performance anticipated during the upcoming promotional period [1]. - The company has announced a placement of 33.22 million shares at HKD 49.40 per share, raising approximately HKD 1.627 billion, primarily for core business development and ecosystem layout [1]. - The company has a robust cash position, with net cash of HKD 2.5 billion and financial assets of HKD 1.27 billion as of the end of 2023, which will support brand building and product line expansion [1]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3.524 billion in FY23 to RMB 4.636 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.452 billion in FY23 to RMB 1.828 billion in FY24, with an adjusted EPS of RMB 1.03 for FY24 [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 83% for FY24 and FY25 [2]. Product Performance - The company has launched several new products under its brands, including the "Focus Series" and "Order Series," which have shown strong sales performance on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [1]. - The "Collagen Stick" is expected to contribute over 30% of the brand's revenue, with significant sales recorded during promotional events [1]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to leverage its product offerings during major sales events, with expectations of strong sales growth for its new product lines [1]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge in the functional skincare market, anticipating regulatory approval for injectable collagen products within the year [1].

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 3,524.1 million, a 49.0% increase from RMB 2,364.4 million in 2022[7] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 2,947.1 million, reflecting a 47.7% growth compared to RMB 1,995.2 million in 2022[7] - Net profit for 2023 amounted to RMB 1,448.2 million, up 44.6% from RMB 1,001.6 million in 2022[7] - Pre-tax profit for 2023 was RMB 1,745.1 million, a 48.2% increase from RMB 1,177.7 million in 2022[7] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 (non-IFRS measure) was RMB 1,468.7 million, a 39.0% increase from RMB 1,056.4 million in 2022[7] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 3,524.1 million, a 49.0% increase from RMB 2,364.4 million in 2022[34] - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 3,524.1 million, up 48.9% from RMB 2,364.4 million in 2022[42] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 2,947.1 million, a 47.7% increase from RMB 1,995.2 million in 2022, with a gross margin of 83.6%[48] - Basic earnings per share rose by 50.5% to RMB 1.49 in 2023, compared to RMB 0.99 in 2022[56] Research and Development - Research and development investment increased by 70% year-on-year in 2023, with 93 patents granted or pending[10] - Research and development expenses amounted to RMB 750 million, a 70.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 2.1% of revenue[15] - The company holds 93 authorized and pending patents, with 13 new patents added during the reporting period[16] - The company plans to increase R&D investment in 2024 to enhance product categories and clinical approval for medical devices[33] - The company is investing in R&D for new technologies, with a budget allocation of $10 million for the upcoming year[149] Sales and Distribution - Direct sales channel revenue grew over 70% year-on-year, with 4,000 offline locations and over 6,000 supermarkets entered[11] - Direct sales revenue amounted to RMB 2,420.5 million, accounting for 68.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percentage points[29] - Revenue from professional skincare products reached RMB 2,647.3 million, accounting for 75.1% of total revenue, up from 66.0% in 2022[35] - Revenue from sales to distributors was RMB 1,103.6 million, a 14.6% increase, making up 31.3% of total revenue[40] - Revenue from online direct sales on e-commerce platforms increased by 42.7% to RMB 177.5 million, accounting for 5.0% of total revenue[38] - Offline direct sales revenue rose by 39.6% to RMB 88.5 million, representing 2.5% of total revenue[39] Brand Performance - The Kefu Mei brand generated nearly RMB 2.8 billion in revenue, growing over 70% year-on-year[14] - Brand revenue for 可复美 reached RMB 2,788.3 million, representing a 72.9% increase compared to the same period in 2022[22] - 可丽金 achieved brand revenue of RMB 616.6 million, remaining flat compared to the same period in 2022[24] - During the 618 shopping festival, 可复美 and 可丽金's online GMV growth exceeded 165% and 70% respectively, while during the Double Eleven festival, growth exceeded 100% and 50% respectively[29] Corporate Governance - The company is committed to high standards of corporate governance to protect shareholder interests[153] - The board consists of executive directors and independent non-executive directors, ensuring compliance with listing rules regarding independence[156][157] - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the listing rules and has complied with all applicable provisions during the reporting period, except for a deviation regarding the separation of roles between the chairman and CEO[153][159] - The company has established a board diversity policy that considers various diversity indicators, including gender, age, cultural background, and professional qualifications[185] Employee Management - As of December 31, 2023, the company had a total of 1,164 full-time employees, with 33.8% in production, 14.2% in R&D, 33.5% in sales and marketing, and 18.5% in general and administration[108] - The company has implemented a comprehensive training program for new and existing employees to ensure competency in their roles[108] - The company aims to recruit employees with relevant educational backgrounds or industry experience through campus recruitment and experienced hiring[190] Future Outlook - Future outlook indicates a projected revenue growth of 15% for the next fiscal year, driven by new product launches and market expansion[149] - Plans for market expansion include entering three new international markets by Q4 2024, targeting a 20% increase in market share[149] - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio, with potential targets identified in the biotech sector[149] Risk Management - The company faces various operational risks, including changes in the regulatory environment in China and competition from other market participants[195] - The company has established a risk management and internal control system to address operational risks, which includes policies and procedures deemed suitable for its business operations[195] - The company conducts annual risk identification and assessment to improve its risk management system and may set occupational health and safety goals as needed[197] Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple quality and sustainability awards, including "National Quality Integrity Benchmark Enterprise" and "Green Factory of Shaanxi Province" in 2023[31] - The company has received multiple awards for technological innovation and contributions to the field, highlighting its commitment to excellence[151]

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月25日 司 报 告 巨子生物（02367） │ 行 业： 美容护理/化妆品 港 投资评级： 买入（维持） 股 - 可复美大单品放量延续，关注医美产品获批催化 当前价格： 48.00港元 公 目标价格： 61.29港元 司 点 事件： 基本数据 评 研 公司发布2023年年报：2023年营收35.24亿元（同比+49.0%），归母净利 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 995.00/995.00 究 润14.52亿元（同比+44.9%），经调整净利润14.69亿元（同比+39.0%）。 流通市值(百万港元) 47,760.00 ➢ 可复美线上直销驱动，可丽金渠道结构调整期 每股净资产(元) 3.83 受益于线上多平台精细化运营与可复美胶原棒精华快速放量，2023年线上 资产负债率(%) 9.30 直销收入同比增长77.5%/营收占比提升至61.2%。可丽金2023年处于渠道 一年内最高/最低(港元) 48.20/28.40 调整期与产品培育期，收入同比基本持平。受品类结构与渠道结构调整影 响，2023年综合毛利率由2022年的84.4%降至83.6%，归母净利率由42.4% 股价相对 ...