Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the green electricity industry [8] Core Insights - The price of green certificates has shown a significant recovery, with the trading price for 2025 electricity corresponding to green certificates reaching 6.48 yuan per certificate, a month-on-month increase of 31.99% [2][11] - The issuance of green certificates remains high, with 278 million certificates issued in June, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, indicating a strong supply [6] - The demand for green electricity is expected to increase due to mandatory assessments for high-energy-consuming industries, which will further support the price recovery of green certificates [2][11] Summary by Sections Green Certificate Issuance and Trading - In June, 278 million green certificates were issued, with 196 million being tradable, accounting for 70.64% of the total [6] - The total number of tradable green certificates issued from January to June 2025 reached 958 million [6] - The average trading price of green certificates in June was 3.40 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 24.77% [11] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential imbalance in supply and demand for green certificates, with expectations of a decrease in supply due to policy changes [2][11] - The green electricity industry is under long-term pressure from market pricing, but the recovery in green certificate prices is seen as a key catalyst for restoring the narrative of public utilities and growth [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality transformation power operators such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Power, as well as large hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [11][15][17] - It also recommends investing in renewable energy companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [11][17][18]

Core Insights - The 2024 China electricity market has shown significant growth, with market-based trading volume exceeding 6.18 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 62.7% of total electricity consumption [1][3] - The report highlights a substantial increase in renewable energy trading, with a volume of 956.9 billion kilowatt-hours, representing 52.3% of total renewable generation [1][3] - The green certificate trading volume surged by 364% year-on-year, while green electricity trading volume grew by 235.2% [1][7] Group 1: Market Expansion and Structure Optimization - In 2024, the total installed power generation capacity in China surpassed 3.349 billion kilowatts, with an increase of 429 million kilowatts, primarily driven by solar and wind energy [2] - The total electricity generation reached 10.09 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, with wind and solar contributing 58.1% of the new generation [2][3] - The number of market participants rose to 816,000, an 8.9% increase, including 35,000 power generation companies and 777,000 electricity users [3] Group 2: Trading Dynamics and Price Differentiation - The market-based trading volume reached 6.18 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 9.0% increase, maintaining over 60% of total electricity consumption for three consecutive years [3][4] - Provincial trading volumes totaled 4.75 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.4% increase, with price differentiation observed in provinces with active spot markets [4] Group 3: Unified Market Structure and Green Transition - The establishment of a unified national electricity market is accelerating, with significant growth in green electricity trading and certificates [5][6] - The inter-provincial electricity spot market officially launched after two years of trial, facilitating over 88 billion kilowatt-hours of trading, with 44% from clean energy [6] - The green certificate trading volume reached 446 million, with a 92.3% share from inter-provincial transactions, indicating a robust market for green energy [7][8] Group 4: New Business Models and Regulatory Enhancements - New business models, including diversified energy storage and virtual power plants, are emerging, enhancing market participation [8] - Regulatory frameworks are being upgraded to support market health, including the revision of the Electricity Market Supervision Measures and the establishment of real-time monitoring systems [8]

Core Insights - In August 2025, 21 regions implemented peak pricing, while 5 regions adopted off-peak pricing [2][3] - The maximum peak-to-valley price difference exceeded 0.6 yuan/kWh in 21 regions, with 16 regions showing a peak-to-flat price difference greater than 0.3 yuan/kWh [3] Price Differences - The top three regions with the largest peak-to-valley price differences are: - Guangdong - Pearl River Delta: 1.2874 yuan/kWh - Jiangmen: 1.2807 yuan/kWh - Huizhou: 1.2413 yuan/kWh [3] - Compared to the same period last year, the maximum price differences have generally decreased, with only 13 regions experiencing an increase [3] Regional Price Changes - Gansu Province showed the most significant decrease, with the valley price exceeding the flat price for the first time, resulting in a difference of 0.0149 yuan [4] - Heilongjiang Province also saw a notable decline due to adjustments in peak pricing and a decrease in peak period prices [4][5] - Other regions like Jilin, Jiangsu, and Liaoning experienced declines primarily due to adjustments in peak pricing [5] Pricing Policies - Hunan's pricing policy includes a floating ratio of 1.6:1:0.4 for peak, flat, and valley prices, with peak prices increasing by 20% on top of the high peak price [8] - In Shaanxi, peak prices are set to increase by 90% over flat prices, while valley prices decrease by 70% [10] Data Summary - A detailed table of electricity prices for various provinces in August 2025 is provided, showing the breakdown of peak, flat, and valley prices [12][13][24][25]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant short-selling activity and potential investor sentiment towards these companies. Group 1: Top Short-Selling Ratios - JD Health (86618) has the highest short-selling ratio at 100.00% [1][2] - Hang Seng Bank (80011) follows with a short-selling ratio of 88.44% [1][2] - SenseTime (80020) has a short-selling ratio of 76.25% [1][2] Group 2: Top Short-Selling Amounts - Xiaomi Group (01810) leads in short-selling amount with 2.209 billion [1][2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) has a short-selling amount of 0.955 billion [1][2] - WuXi AppTec (02359) reports a short-selling amount of 0.698 billion [1][2] Group 3: Top Short-Selling Deviations - Hang Seng Bank (80011) has the highest deviation value at 48.82% [1][2] - JD Health (86618) follows with a deviation value of 45.78% [1][2] - Uni-President China (00220) has a deviation value of 33.70% [1][2]

Group 1 - Heartway Medical-B (06609.HK) expects a net profit of no less than RMB 40 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a significant turnaround from a net loss of approximately RMB 5.1 million for the corresponding period ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The anticipated profit and performance improvement are primarily due to business growth, leading to increased revenue and a decrease in overall expenditure ratio compared to the corresponding period [1] Group 2 - Baoshan International (03813.HK) expects a mid-term net profit of approximately RMB 187.6 million, a year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [2] - Baio Family Interaction (02100.HK) anticipates a mid-term profit increase of approximately 134.9% to 141.6% [2] - Skyworth Group (00751.HK) warns of an expected mid-term post-tax profit decline of about 50% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - China CNR Corporation (01766.HK) recently signed a significant contract worth approximately RMB 32.92 billion [2] - China Power (02380.HK) reported a total electricity sales volume of 11.299 million megawatt-hours in June, a year-on-year decrease of 5.04% [2]

中国电力(02380)发布公告，该集团于2025年6月的合并总售电量为1129.93万兆瓦时，较去年同月减少 5.04%，而2025年首6个月的合并总售电量为6253.66万兆瓦时，较去年同期减少2.81%。 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国电力(02380)发布公告，该集团于2025年6月的合并总售电量为1129.93万兆瓦时， 较去年同月减少5.04%，而2025年首6个月的合并总售电量为6253.66万兆瓦时，较去年同期减少2.81%。 ...

格隆汇7月29日丨中国电力(02380.HK)公告，公司及其附属公司(统称"集团")于2025年6月的合并总售电 量为11,299,344兆瓦时，较去年同月减少5.04%，而2025年首6个月的合并总售电量为62,536,560兆瓦 时，较去年同期减少2.81%。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致 的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中 國 電 力 國 際 發 展 有 限 公 司 China Power International Development Limited 中國電力國際發展有限公司（「本公司」）宣佈，根據本公司的初步統計，本公司及 其附屬公司（統稱「本集團」）於二零二五年六月的合併總售電量為 11,299,344 兆瓦 時，較去年同月減少 5.04%，而二零二五年首六個月的合併總售電量為 62,536,560兆瓦 時，較去年同期減少 2.81%。 本集團於二零二五年六月及截至二零二五年六月三十日止六個月的總售電量，按發電 廠類型列示如下： （在香港註冊成立的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2380） 二零二五年上半年售電量 | 全資擁有或 | | | 售電量（兆瓦時） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 控制的發電廠 | 2025 年 | 年 2024 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Power Equipment** industry, particularly focusing on the implications of a new **Rmb 1.2 trillion mega-hydropower project** in Tibet, which is expected to significantly impact the power grid capital expenditure (capex) in China [2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Mega-Hydropower Project Announcement**: - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commenced construction on **July 19, 2025**, with an installed capacity of approximately **60GW** and a total investment of **Rmb 1.2 trillion** [5]. - This announcement led to a rally in related stocks, with increases ranging from **2% to 65%** on July 21, 2025 [5][9]. 2. **Impact on Grid Capex**: - The project is expected to drive significant growth in grid capex, estimated to reach **Rmb 150-200 billion** due to the need for **3-5 ultra-high voltage (UHV) DC lines** for long-distance power transmission [2][6]. - The capex will also include investments in high-voltage equipment such as switchgear and transformers, as well as grid automation software and equipment [6][7]. 3. **Long-Term Outlook**: - The base case for China's grid capex growth is projected at **~5% per annum** during the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is a moderation compared to the **~7% CAGR** during the previous plan [7]. - However, the mega project indicates a potential upside to this growth rate if the State Grid increases investments in distribution and UHV infrastructure [7]. 4. **Beneficiary Companies**: - Companies likely to benefit from this project include: - **Xuji Electric** (UHV capex) - **Sieyuan Electric** (HV transmission equipment) - **Huaming Equipment** (HV transformers) - **Nari Technology** (UHV) [2][6]. - Top picks are **Huaming Equipment** and **Sieyuan Electric** due to their exposure to both domestic and overseas markets [2]. 5. **Supply Dynamics**: - There is a belief that the hydropower project will not lead to immediate tighter supply for high-voltage equipment in Asia, as the construction will take years, and Chinese manufacturers can efficiently ramp up capacity [2][8]. - The report suggests that while global supply for high-voltage transformers and switchgear may remain tight, the project itself will not be an immediate driver of demand [2][8]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of the high voltage transmission network in Northern and Western China, highlighting the need for more UHV lines to transmit hydropower from Tibet to consumption areas [7]. - The analysis includes valuation comparisons of relevant companies, providing insights into market capitalization, liquidity, and expected financial metrics [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the implications of the mega-hydropower project on the China Power Equipment industry and the expected growth in grid capex.