证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.27/2.81 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 68.42 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国电力(02380.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——拟派息 60% 股息率具吸引力 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsip ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.27/2.81 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 68.42 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国电力(02380.HK) 投资评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in net profit for the year 2024, despite a downward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 9.5% and 22.2% respectively due to lower-than-expected wind and solar generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024 and 2025 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite the earnings adjustments [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, reflecting a 6.4% decrease, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, down 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a 9.5% reduction, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Generation Capacity and Production Forecast - The company anticipates an 18.6% year-on-year increase in power generation for 2024, with hydropower generation significantly recovering by 52% [5][6]. - For 2025, the company expects a 3% decrease in unit fuel costs, but a 7% decline in the ignition price difference for thermal power due to changes in long-term electricity prices [5][6]. Valuation Summary - The target price of HKD 3.72 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with contributions from various segments: thermal power at RMB 8,980 million, hydropower at RMB 7,787 million, wind power at RMB 24,997 million, and solar power at RMB 19,776 million [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in profit for the full year 2024, despite a slight reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 due to lower-than-expected wind and solar power generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024/25 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment despite the downward revision in profit forecasts [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, down 6.4%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, a reduction of 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a decrease of 9.5%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Power Generation Capacity and Sales - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 31,599 MW in 2022 to 65,759 MW by 2026, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [6]. - The company's electricity sales are expected to rise from 108,171 GWh in 2022 to 146,986 GWh by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the total value at RMB 42,632 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 3.72 [10]. - The valuation for different segments includes coal power at 0.70x 2025E P/B, hydropower at 0.75x, wind power at 8.5x P/E, and solar power also at 8.5x P/E [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 3.92 [1] Core Views - China Power is a comprehensive clean energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) with a TTM dividend yield of 6.42% and a PB (MRQ) of 0.64x, indicating significant valuation appeal [1] - The company plans to use its 63% stake in Wuling Power and 64.93% stake in Changzhou Hydropower as consideration to subscribe for new shares in Yuanda Environmental, which is expected to reduce the debt-to-asset ratio and potentially enhance valuation through A-share hydropower assets [1][3] - In 1H24, China Power's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53% YoY to RMB 2.57 billion, driven by strong performance in clean energy [1] Operational Performance - In 3Q24, coal-fired power sales increased by 4.6% YoY to 15.7 billion kWh, accelerating from 0.4% growth in 1H24, due to increased coal power output during peak summer demand [2] - Wind and solar power sales in October 2024 grew by 39.9% and 12.8% YoY, respectively, though the growth rate slowed compared to the 59.4% and 90.8% increases in 1-9M24, primarily due to a high base effect from the 7.5GW clean energy assets injected in October 2023 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The proposed red-chip control of A-share hydropower platform Yuanda Environmental is expected to accelerate China Power's energy transition goals and facilitate the injection of high-quality projects from SPIC [3] - Despite market concerns over the dilution of China Power's stake in hydropower assets, the company anticipates faster growth in asset and profit scale post-restructuring [3] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down China Power's new clean energy capacity additions by 33%, 9%, and 0% for 2024-2026, and adjusts wind and solar power tariffs, leading to a reduction in net profit attributable to shareholders by 2%, 8%, and 14% to RMB 5.0 billion, RMB 5.6 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion, respectively [4] - Based on 2025E forecasts, the target market capitalization is RMB 44.8 billion (HKD 48.5 billion), with a target price of HKD 3.92, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for China Power, including PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA ratios, with 2025E PE/PB for new energy, thermal power, and hydropower at 10x, 0.5x, and 1.2x, respectively [4][6] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 9.00% in 2024E to 10.05% in 2026E, reflecting stronger profitability [6] Industry Comparison - Comparable company valuations for thermal power, hydropower, and new energy sectors are provided, with average 2025E PB ratios of 0.80x, 2.6x, and 6x, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a restructuring of its hydropower assets, positioning itself as a flagship in clean energy [2]. - The total electricity sales volume for the first ten months of the year reached 108,220,668 MWh, representing a significant increase of 30.56% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to sell its hydropower assets (5.9 GW) to its parent company's subsidiary, Yuanda Environmental Protection, in exchange for newly issued shares, which will enhance its position in the clean energy sector [2]. - The company aims to integrate approximately 20 GW of remaining hydropower assets into Yuanda Environmental Protection over the next three years [2]. - The company has accelerated the construction of wind and solar projects, with a total of 3.3 GW of new clean energy capacity added in the first half of the year [2]. - The company targets a clean energy installed capacity ratio of 90% by 2025, with expected new installations of about 7 GW for the year [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company reported a year-on-year increase in wind power sales volume of 57.05% and solar power sales volume of 79.55% [2]. - Hydropower sales volume increased by 62.62% due to improved water conditions in the first half of the year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 44,262 million in 2023 to 50,228 million in 2024, representing a 13.5% increase [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 2,660 million in 2023 to 5,109 million in 2024, indicating a 92.1% growth [4]. - The company expects to achieve a basic earnings per share of 0.41 in 2024, up from 0.22 in 2023 [4]. Asset Management - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 305,807 million in 2023 to 329,340 million in 2024 [4]. - The debt ratio is expected to increase from 68.9% in 2023 to 70.7% in 2024, indicating a rising leverage [4]. Market Position - The company aims to solidify its status as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform, leveraging its control over Yuanda Environmental Protection [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 4.73 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 52% from the current price of 3.11 HKD [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the company's total electricity sales volume reached 9,750,483 MWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.59%. For the first ten months of 2024, the total sales volume was 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The performance of different power generation types in October 2024 showed significant growth in wind and coal power, with wind power increasing by 39.89% and coal power by 30.42%. In contrast, hydropower experienced a seasonal decline of 25.15% [3]. - The overall electricity sales data indicates strong performance, with wind, coal, and natural gas generation all achieving high growth rates. The growth in wind power is attributed to improved wind resources and the acquisition of assets from the parent company, as well as the increase in self-built wind and solar capacity [3]. Summary by Category Electricity Sales Volume - Total electricity sales volume for October 2024 was 9,750,483 MWh, a 20.59% increase year-on-year. The first ten months of 2024 saw a total of 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% from the previous year [2]. - Breakdown by generation type for October 2024: - Hydropower: 825,616 MWh, down 25.15% year-on-year - Wind power: 2,292,301 MWh, up 39.89% year-on-year - Photovoltaic: 1,824,368 MWh, up 12.83% year-on-year - Coal power: 4,467,964 MWh, up 30.42% year-on-year - Natural gas: 203,777 MWh, up 28.10% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in performance and dividends in the medium to long term. The restructuring of hydropower assets is anticipated to enhance overall valuation, making it a key area of focus [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the company's total electricity sales volume reached 9,750,483 MWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.59%. For the first ten months of 2024, the total sales volume was 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The performance of different power generation types in October 2024 showed significant growth in wind and coal power, with wind power increasing by 39.89% and coal power by 30.42%. However, hydropower experienced a seasonal decline of 25.15% [2][3]. - The overall electricity sales data indicates strong performance, with wind, coal, and natural gas generation all achieving high growth rates. The growth in wind power is attributed to improved wind resources and the acquisition of assets from the parent company, as well as the increase in self-built wind and solar capacity [3]. Summary by Category Electricity Sales Volume - Total electricity sales volume for October 2024 was 9,750,483 MWh, a 20.59% increase from October 2023. The first ten months of 2024 saw a total of 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% year-on-year [2]. - Breakdown of sales volume by generation type for October 2024: - Hydropower: 825,616 MWh, down 25.15% year-on-year - Wind power: 2,292,301 MWh, up 39.89% - Photovoltaic: 1,824,368 MWh, up 12.83% - Coal power: 4,467,964 MWh, up 30.42% - Natural gas: 203,777 MWh, up 28.10% [2]. Performance Comparison - The company demonstrated superior performance compared to peers in terms of electricity sales growth, highlighting the stability provided by its diversified power generation portfolio [3]. - The impact of anticipated declines in long-term electricity prices in Guangdong is minimal, as the company's capacity in that region accounts for only 10% of its total installed capacity [3]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the company's performance and dividend stability, with expectations for overall valuation improvement following the restructuring of hydropower assets [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recently, China Electric (Jingmen) Energy Co., Ltd. was established, indicating a strategic move into renewable energy and electric vehicle infrastructure by China Electric [1] Company Summary - The company is fully owned by China Electric, showcasing its commitment to expanding its portfolio in the energy sector [1] - The registered capital of the new company is 136 million yuan, reflecting a significant investment in renewable energy technologies [1] Industry Summary - The operational scope includes solar power generation technology services, wind power generation technology services, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure operations, highlighting a focus on sustainable energy solutions [1] - The company also engages in the sales of hydrogen production and storage facilities, indicating a diversification into hydrogen energy, which is gaining traction in the energy market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is set to become a key platform for hydropower asset integration under the National Energy Investment Group, with significant potential for valuation support due to the higher valuation of hydropower assets in the A-share market compared to the Hong Kong market [4][5]. - The company has shown a strong recovery in operational performance, with a 51.50% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to equity holders, reaching 2.802 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4]. - A special dividend of 0.05 yuan per share has been announced to celebrate the company's 20th anniversary, alongside a commitment to a minimum 50% payout ratio, enhancing the investment appeal [4]. Summary by Sections Asset Restructuring - The company plans to inject its controlling stakes in subsidiaries, including Wuling Power and Guodian Investment Guangxi Changzhou Hydropower, into Far East Environmental Protection, establishing it as a hydropower asset integration platform for Guodian Investment [4]. - The restructuring is expected to solidify the company's position as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform, with further hydropower assets likely to be injected in the future [4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a profit of 2.802 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 51.50% increase year-on-year, driven by improved coal prices and steady growth in clean energy business [4]. - The operational performance is expected to continue its recovery, supported by high growth in hydropower and easing pressure on thermal power generation [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve profits of 5.004 billion, 6.046 billion, and 7.157 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.40 yuan, 0.49 yuan, and 0.58 yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's attractive valuation with PE ratios of 8.63, 7.14, and 6.03 for the same period, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [5].