2026 电力行业年度策略：火绿重构，水核筑基，燃气优 化 20260106 摘要 2025 年电力板块整体表现一般，但火电受益于煤价下跌利润增长显著， 新能源受 136 号文影响表现突出但业绩承压，水电基本面平稳，核电估 值抬升但受政策影响业绩受限。煤价从 2024 年的 860 元/吨降至 700 元/吨左右，火电企业盈利因此受益。 2025 年用电需求结构变化明显，二产用电增速放缓拖累整体，三产及 城乡居民用电高增长拉动。信息类行业快速发展对三产用电影响显著， 建筑业等二产领域则对整体产业用电产生负面影响。未来制造业用电维 稳和信息类行业发展有望拉动整体用电需求。 2024-2025 年新能源装机维持高增，风光装机总量约 400GW。大量火 电竞指标将在未来 2-3 年内逐步投产，预计 2025、2026 年火电投放量 将分别达到 70GW 以上，导致电力供给相对宽松局面持续到 2027 年前 后。 电力市场改革持续推进，标杆电价改为浮动电价，2025 年浮动范围维 持正负 20%。全国统一电力市场政策将火电和新能源全面推向市场化。 部分地区机制电价竞价情况优于预期，但新能源资源过剩地区面临较大 压力。 ...

插播： 1月8日，中车株洲所、阳光电源、弘正储能、海辰储能、海尔新能源、融和元储、华储电气、天合光能、星星充电、星纪云能、汇能科技等超30 家企业出席【行家说储能开盛年会】，报名欢迎联系行家说储能辛迪 Cindy：15989092696 （微信同号） 新年已至，不少储能业内人士向我们坦露掏心窝子的话。 曾经的投资方："我是被工商业储能做局了吗？未来还能投资储能吗" 还想投资的业主："下一代是长时储能和构网技术吗？有没具体的企业实力和参数？" 设备商、运营商们："以为出海是解药，但现在赚个辛苦钱还得防'踩雷'。" 因此，当时针指向2026，我们亟需一场聚焦于 "数"与"智" 、 "策"与"市" （政策与市场）的深度碰撞。这不仅是一场对过去的总结，更是一次面向未来、 凝聚行业核心竞争力的生态共建。 为此，2026年储能第一会，它来了——1月8日，深圳，行家说储能特设《2026开年盛会电力市场与数智化储能企业创新实践峰会》，邀请 南网科技、阳光 电源、海辰储能、天合光能、瑞浦兰钧、海尔新能源、华储电气、弘正储能、融和元储、华储电气、利星能、星星充电、兆万能源、鹏辉智慧能源、卧龙储 能、星纪云能、量道储能、天能储能、 ...

（原标题：南非国家能源监管机构任命电力市场咨询论坛指导电力市场改革） 南非工程新闻网站12月19日报道，南非国家能源监管机构（Nersa）已任命电力市场咨询论坛 （EMAF），为南非电力市场的发展提供咨询。该论坛根据《电力监管法》第5条设立，将就电力市场 改革向能源监管机构提供建议，包括市场准则、交易安排和相关监管工具。Nersa表示，随着南非向更 具竞争力和多元化的电力市场结构转型，EMAF将在加强利益相关者参与和支持监管决策方面发挥关键 作用。该论坛由来自监管机构、国有企业、行业协会、学术界、金融监管机构和民间社会的代表组成。 Nersa表示，该论坛将有助于确保新兴市场框架稳健、实用，并与消费者和更广泛的经济利益保持一 致，同时支持电力行业的长期可持续发展。 ...

四川作为水电大省和清洁能源示范基地，逐步形成具有清洁能源特色的电力市场体系。近期，四川省发 展改革委等多部门联合发布《四川2026年电力市场交易总体方案》（以下简称"新规"）。此次新规的发 布标志着四川电力市场改革进入新阶段。相较于《四川省2025年省内电力市场交易总体方案》（以下简 称"2025年总体方案"），新规在市场主体、交易体系、市场运营、价格机制、风险防控等方面进行了全 方位升级。 经营主体更加丰富多元 一是明确市场交易规模。根据四川电力供需总体形势、产业结构等因素，新规首次明确2026年省内电力 市场交易规模约2300亿千瓦时，预计较2025年略有增长，提高了市场透明度。二是重新分类市场经营主 体。按照经营主体、新型经营主体和市场运营机构对市场成员进行重新分类；相较于2025年总体方案， 首次对新型储能、虚拟电厂、电动汽车充换电设施等新型经营主体进行了明确分类，市场经营主体更加 丰富多元，进一步激发市场活力。三是新能源全面进入市场。新增了分布式新能源作为市场经营主体， 鼓励其聚合参与市场交易，也明确了集中式风电和光伏将直接参与市场交易，意味着四川所有新能源项 目上网电量将全部进入市场。 一是中长期 ...

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a dual reality, characterized by both explosive growth in new storage installations driven by domestic policy and innovative business models, and challenges arising from market reforms and a shift towards diversified revenue models [2][3] Industry Overview - As of Q3 2025, the national new storage registration volume has exceeded 1 TWh, with independent storage projects accounting for over 93% [2] - The industry is transitioning from passive development to actively seeking diverse revenue models, leading to short-term pain amidst a broader trend of value return [2] Company Highlights - **融和元储**: Focuses on operational efficiency through its融和·白泽 platform, achieving a 50% increase in price prediction accuracy and an 80% improvement in data processing efficiency, with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 20 GWh [4] - **弘正储能**: Recognized as a Tier 1 global storage manufacturer, it is enhancing its digital capabilities in energy control and prediction, aiming to create a smart central system [5] - **海辰储能**: Achieved a battery shipment volume of 35.1 GWh last year, with a compound annual growth rate of 167% over the past three years [6] - **为恒智能**: A Tier 1 global storage manufacturer with over 600 delivered projects, focusing on smart energy management systems for various applications [7] - **海尔新能源**: Provides integrated smart clean energy solutions for commercial and industrial users, covering over 30 provinces in China and exporting to over 50 countries [8] - **利星能**: Engages in comprehensive energy service models with a focus on microgrids and independent storage, having delivered over 3.5 GWh of projects [9] - **华储电气**: Specializes in commercial storage solutions, helping clients reduce electricity costs through various strategies [10] - **南网科技**: Successfully implemented a large-scale battery storage system, marking significant advancements in storage technology [11] - **阳光电源**: Focuses on clean energy conversion technologies, with a strong emphasis on safety and efficiency in its storage solutions [12] - **瑞浦兰钧**: Achieved a revenue of 9.491 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [14] - **星星充电**: Develops a smart energy ecosystem through its OPEN-OS system, enhancing energy trading and efficiency [15] - **天合光能**: Aims to lead in smart energy solutions with a focus on solar-storage integration, planning to ship 8-10 GWh in 2025 [16] - **鹏辉智慧能源**: Launched a new outdoor liquid-cooled storage cabinet, enhancing operational efficiency and customer value [17] - **汇能科技**: Focuses on user-side markets, providing comprehensive services for commercial storage and virtual power plants [18] - **兆万能源**: Engaged in clean energy solutions, recently obtaining a patent for solar panel maintenance [19] - **奇点能源**: A leading comprehensive energy service provider, delivering over 30,000 energy blocks globally [20] - **智光储能**: Develops advanced storage systems with a focus on high-capacity applications [21] - **领储宇能**: Offers modular storage solutions and has achieved significant project deliveries in the industrial sector [23] - **皇鼎储能**: Expanded its commercial storage projects significantly in Guangdong, becoming a market leader [24] - **星纪云能**: Combines investment and smart operations in its business model, enhancing revenue through AI-driven management systems [25] - **量道储能**: Focuses on high-quality service in the European market, delivering over 600 commercial storage projects [26] - **卧龙储能**: Achieved significant growth in overseas orders, reflecting its technological strength [27] - **亿兰科**: Provides comprehensive solutions for various energy scenarios, focusing on product innovation [28] - **天能储能**: A leading player in the storage industry with a focus on lithium-ion battery production [30] - **国能日新**: Utilizes AI technology to enhance market operations and maximize client revenues [31] - **拓邦股份**: Offers customized services across various energy sectors, focusing on integrated energy management [32] - **煜邦智源**: Emphasizes global expansion and advanced storage solutions for industrial applications [33] - **海信网络能源**: Develops a comprehensive range of storage temperature control products for various applications [34] - **天炜能源**: Focuses on lifecycle management of storage assets, with significant project development in the grid-side sector [35]

近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布的关于做好2026年电力中长期合同签约履约工作的通知，犹如 一颗重磅炸弹，在中国电力市场激起千层浪。其中"各地要做好峰谷分时电价政策与市场交易电价的衔 接，原则上直接参与市场用户不再执行政府规定的分时电价"这一核心条款，宛如一座里程碑，标志着 中国工商业分时电价正式从行政定价时代昂首迈进市场定价时代，开启了中国电力市场发展的全新篇 章。 2025年以来，多项重大政策密集出台，如同强劲的东风，为中国电力市场的改革与发展注入了源源不断 的动力。 新能源全面入市政策宛如一场及时雨，为分时电价改革创造了得天独厚的条件。136号文明确"新能源项 目上网电量原则上全部进入电力市场，上网电价通过市场交易形成"。新能源，尤其是太阳能和风能， 具有显著的间歇性和波动性特征。传统的固定时段划分方式，就像一套不合身的衣服，已无法适应电力 系统灵活运行的需要。而新能源全面入市，让电力价格能够根据实时供需情况灵活变动，为分时电价的 市场化定价提供了更为真实、准确的市场信号。 工商业分时电价迈向市场定价时代，对于电力市场的各方参与者来说，都将带来前所未有的机遇和好 处。 对于工商业用户而言，市场化的分 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent advancements by CRRC Zhuzhou Institute in the commercial energy storage sector, showcasing new products and a comprehensive approach to address market challenges in cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and safety [2][8]. Group 1: Product Launches - CRRC Zhuzhou Institute launched the new generation all-scenario standardized commercial energy storage system CESS-M261 V3.0, which integrates high safety, efficiency, and intelligence, specifically designed for small and medium-sized commercial scenarios [3]. - The CESS-M261 V3.0 features an innovative design that combines PCS and high-voltage box, occupying only 1.43 square meters, and can operate in extreme temperatures as low as -40°C with an all-weather efficiency of ≥88% [3]. - The new energy storage smart cloud platform incorporates AI algorithms and IoT technology, offering centralized monitoring, early warning for thermal runaway within 30 minutes, predictive maintenance, and real-time revenue analysis, aiming to reduce operational costs by over 30% and enhance overall site revenue by 25% [5]. Group 2: Safety and Standards - CRRC Zhuzhou Institute conducted a comprehensive fire and explosion verification of its energy storage products, simulating real thermal runaway scenarios to explore safety performance boundaries [5]. - The company released the "Safety Technology White Paper for Commercial Energy Storage," which outlines a defense-in-depth safety system based on credible safety boundaries [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Development - During the "2025 Commercial Energy Storage Ecosystem Partner Conference," CRRC Zhuzhou Institute signed cooperation agreements with eight companies to promote market development and project implementation [9][11]. - The conference emphasized themes of technological breakthroughs, service upgrades, and ecosystem win-win strategies, showcasing the company's commitment to high-quality development in the energy storage market [9][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CRRC Zhuzhou Institute plans to leverage its mature technology in the commercial energy storage field to continue developing core technologies such as battery cells, BMS, PCS, and smart cloud platforms [13]. - The establishment of the Baoying base aims to enhance collaboration with industry partners, focusing on improving safety standards and the overall lifecycle value of energy storage systems to support the transition to a low-carbon energy structure [13].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry is entering a paradigm shift in 2025, characterized by rapid growth in installed capacity, a transition from policy-driven to market-driven growth, and a shift from price competition to value competition, focusing on the deepening of the electricity market and the integration of digital intelligence [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is a certain battleground, but the capabilities that determine victory are uncertain [3]. - With the exit of "mandatory storage" and the acceleration of a unified national electricity market, new energy storage will gradually establish a revenue model primarily based on energy and capacity, with other market revenues as supplementary [4]. - Understanding and adapting to electricity market rules, building core capabilities under market demand, and enhancing storage value for users will become the core competitiveness and decisive factors for storage companies in the future [4]. Group 2: Digital Intelligence Integration - Digital intelligence is a definite trend, but the path to achieving it remains uncertain [5]. - AI, IoT, and big data are no longer just enhancements but are central to reconstructing the value of energy storage systems [6]. - The emergence of new business models such as virtual power plants and smart microgrids raises questions about how to embed technological capabilities into different provincial electricity market rules to design replicable and profitable commercial loops [6]. Group 3: Industry Event and Insights - The "Electricity Market and Digital Intelligence Energy Storage Enterprise Innovation Practice Summit" will be held on January 8 in Shenzhen, aiming to gather decision-makers, technical experts, and market operators from the energy storage industry to explore sustainable profitability paths [6]. - The summit will provide in-depth analysis of the evolution of the electricity market and commercial paths, clarifying the strategic opportunities as the industry transitions from policy-driven to market-driven [7]. - The event will feature over twenty heavyweight guests from policy, academia, industry, and capital, sharing strategic insights and practical experiences [11].

Core Insights - China's monthly electricity consumption has surpassed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, showcasing the strength of the southern regional electricity market in ensuring optimal supply during peak demand [1] - The "Tianquan" solver, developed independently, has significantly improved computational efficiency, outperforming imported solvers by 14% [1][9] Group 1: Development of "Tianquan" - The southern regional electricity market was among the first to undergo market-oriented reforms, transitioning from government pricing to a model based on electricity costs and environmental expenditures [2] - Initially, domestic solvers lagged significantly behind international counterparts, requiring 30 to 40 times longer to solve the same problems [2] - The development team recognized the risks of relying on foreign solvers, as they did not disclose operational formulas or models, leading to potential safety hazards [2] Group 2: Research and Optimization - The team conducted extensive research and discussions with experts to create optimized underlying code, which was identified as a key factor in improving performance [3][6] - The initial testing of "Tianquan" revealed a significant performance gap, taking 20,000 seconds for a case compared to 11 times faster for imported solvers [4] - The team faced challenges in accessing the operational processes of imported solvers, which were treated as "black boxes," complicating efforts to enhance "Tianquan" [4][6] Group 3: Testing and Implementation - After numerous simulations and optimizations, "Tianquan" achieved a breakthrough, matching and then exceeding the speed of imported solvers by 14% [7] - The reliability of "Tianquan" is critical for grid safety, leading to extensive testing with real data from power plants and substations [8] - Following two years of dual operation with imported solvers, "Tianquan" transitioned to independent operation, expanding its support from two-day trading to continuous monthly settlements [9] Group 4: Future Prospects - The successful development and application of "Tianquan" are seen as a significant contribution to energy security, aligning with national goals to maintain control over energy resources [9] - The southern regional electricity market aims to provide robust support for the national unified electricity market and extend solutions to other key industries such as oil and gas, aviation, and manufacturing [9]