【电力】 电改深化，电价体系的复盘与展望 20251008 摘要 中国电力市场改革持续深化，上网侧市场化改革已取得显著进展，火电 竞价全面入市，核电竞价入市比例达 50%，2025 年新能源项目也将全 面入市，发电竞价普遍趋向市场化。 电力改革旨在通过市场机制反映各环节真实价值，包括能量价值、绿色 价值、输配电费和系统运行费用，引导行业高质量发展，并促进资源优 化配置与可持续发展。 当前电价机制下，各环节损益通过明确公式确定，容量电价政策明确了 新型储能等领域的合理回报形式，如煤电容量电价确立，即使不发电， 容量价值仍能得到认可和补偿。 中国发电市场化进程显著，至 2025 年，火力发电占比约 65%，新能源 占比近 20%，水力发电占比约 13%-15%，核力发电占比约 5%，约 85%的发电已脱离政府定价，通过市场竞争定价。 未来电改方向在于反映各环节真实价值，通过科学合理定价机制确保每 个环节合理回报，促进新型高效清洁能源体系发展，并可能推动用电脱 离政府定价，实现全面市场化。 Q&A 电力市场改革是一个复杂且长期的过程，其主要原因在于电力行业作为国家民 生和工业相关的基础行业，用电量在第二产业和第三产 ...

以往默认使用统一结算参考点的方式虽简单易操作，但难以让现货市场的时空价格信号充分融入中 长期交易，也不利于培育经营主体的市场意识。《方案》允许交易双方按照"位置（节点）、价格形成 方式、计算周期"三个维度自定义中长期结算参考价，匹配不同经营主体的个性化需求，更好发挥中长 期交易作用。如新能源企业在签订中长期合约时，可选择场站所在节点作为中长期结算参考点，以实现 避险需求；如电力用户位于辽宁省非负荷中心，即节点电价较低地区，可与发电企业协商签订低于目前 中长期交易均价水平的合同价格，并选择用户自身所在节点作为中长期结算参考点，以降低用能成本。 亮点二：自主选择绿电与机制电量结算优先级 《方案》在中长期交易领域的突破性探索，集中体现在结算参考点机制的灵活化设计上。交易双方 不仅可以自主约定结算参考点，还可自行约定结算参考点价格的形成方式和计算周期，也就是说中长期 结算参考价格可以选择某一节点一定周期内的全部或部分时段的加权平均价格。这一设计彻底打破了传 统中长期合约结算参考点"单一化、固定化"的限制，为市场主体提供了更灵活的交易环境。 亮点一：增强中长期交易灵活性 在《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高 ...

《方案》在中长期交易领域的突破性探索，集中体现在结算参考点机制的灵活化设计上。交易双方不仅 可以自主约定结算参考点，还可自行约定结算参考点价格的形成方式和计算周期，也就是说中长期结算 参考价格可以选择某一节点一定周期内的全部或部分时段的加权平均价格。这一设计彻底打破了传统中 长期合约结算参考点"单一化、固定化"的限制，为市场主体提供了更灵活的交易环境。 在《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格〔2025〕136号） 推动新能源全面入市的背景下，各地实施方案陆续公布。9月25日，《辽宁省深化新能源上网电价市场 化改革实施方案》（辽发改价格〔2025〕734号）（以下简称《方案》）正式出台，立足本地电力供需 格局与新能源发展实际，在中长期交易机制、绿电结算、日前市场运营等关键领域推出一系列创新举 措。这些举措不仅贴合国家电力市场改革导向，更精准破解了当前地方电力市场运行中的痛点难点，对 激发市场活力、保障能源安全、推动绿色转型具有重要意义。 亮点一：增强中长期交易灵活性 以往默认使用统一结算参考点的方式虽简单易操作，但难以让现货市场的时空价格信号充分融入中长期 交易，也不利于培育 ...

同时，《指引》 首次系统提出 "可靠容量补偿机制"，通过科学评估各类型机组及新型储能对容量充裕度的实际贡献，并探 索市场化容量电价形成路径。这既避免核定补偿电价下的固定成本补偿超额或缺额问题，也为系统容量长期充裕提供了市 场化的衔接路径 。 二、推动构建多时序、多品种、多维度协同的电力市场体系 经历现货试点自启动到正式运行的持续多年建设，我国仍面临中长期与现货交易有序衔接、电能量与辅助服务联合运行、 批发与零售价格传导突破等深层次结构性问题。 《指引》 关键突破在于进一步明确了市场体系建设共识并提炼要点、构建 了市场体系下各环节协同的总体框架。 我国自 2015 年发布《关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见》以来，电力市场体系加速构建，电力交易机构组建工作 全部完成，省级现货试点范围稳步扩大，多元主体积极参与市场，绿电、绿证交易提速发展，全国统一电力市场 格局 初步 建成，市场在资源优化配置中作用显著增强。 当前，我国电力市场改革步入深水区、新型电力系统建设加速推进 ， 国家 层面 印发了《 电力现货连续运行地区市场建设指引 》（以下简称《指引》）， 具有承前启后的重大战略意义。《指引》 的发布，是对我国多批 ...

Core Insights - The 2024 report on corporate green power procurement in China highlights a significant leap in the green electricity sector, with wind and solar installations exceeding 1.25 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power capacity and achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule [1][24] - The transition from voluntary to mandatory green power procurement is driven by ongoing market reforms and innovative procurement mechanisms, expanding domestic and international application scenarios [1][4] Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.25 billion kilowatts, accounting for 82% of new installations, and the combined generation from these sources was 1.35 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 19% of total electricity generation, a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [1][24] - The introduction of the first national electricity spot market rules in September 2023 has invigorated green electricity trading, with the trading volume reaching 684.5 billion kilowatt-hours, which is 47.3% of total renewable energy generation, marking a nearly 9 percentage point increase from 2022 [2][19] Green Power Procurement Mechanisms - The report identifies five main procurement mechanisms, with green electricity trading showing rapid growth and a decrease in average prices, while green power certificates (GPCs) have seen a sixfold increase in trading volume [21][34] - The average trading price for green electricity in the State Grid region dropped to 417.48 yuan per megawatt-hour, a 6% decrease from 2023, while the environmental value price in the Southern Grid region fell to 9 yuan per megawatt-hour, less than 40% of the previous year's price [2][4] Application Scenarios - Domestic application scenarios for green electricity are expanding from merely meeting renewable energy consumption targets to addressing energy consumption and carbon emission control, with specific targets set for high-energy-consuming industries [4][23] - Internationally, the recognition of Chinese green certificates is improving, with significant progress in aligning with global renewable energy initiatives, which is expected to facilitate the transition from international green certificates to domestic ones by 2025 [4][5] Future Trends - Future trends include the construction of cross-provincial transmission channels, hourly-level green certificate matching, and the standardization of retail markets, which are anticipated to enhance the flexibility and regulation of the green electricity procurement market [5][19] - The report emphasizes that the market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade," driven by the increasing demand for green electricity and the need for compliance with international trade regulations [5][22]

Summary of Guotou Electric Power Conference Call Company Overview - Guotou Electric Power's clean energy installed capacity reached 71.84% in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by hydropower, with a diversified structure including thermal, wind, and solar power [2][4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 118 billion yuan, with total assets of 315.3 billion yuan and net assets of 116.4 billion yuan [2][4] - Total profit for the first half of 2025 was 8.2 billion yuan, despite a 5.18% year-on-year decline in revenue to 25.6797 billion yuan [2][4] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.36% year-on-year to 3.795 billion yuan, aided by a targeted issuance of 7 billion yuan [2][4] - The company's electricity generation remained stable at 75.2 billion kWh, with a slight decrease in the average electricity price [2][4] - Earnings per share decreased by 2.84% to 0.4763 yuan [4] Operational Highlights - The company is actively advancing hydropower station construction with a total installed capacity of 3.72 million kW and expanding existing thermal power units [2][5] - Guotou Electric Power is focusing on the development of the Yalong River integrated water, wind, and solar base, with a construction scale of 4.77 million kW [2][5] - The company is also addressing policy changes and emphasizing high-quality renewable energy project development while managing project risks [2][5] Market Dynamics - Fluctuations in the Jiangsu spot market have impacted the external electricity price from Yalong River, necessitating attention to potential adjustments in capacity fees and annual contract prices [2][6] - Overall electricity prices have decreased year-on-year, with varying impacts across different power sources; thermal power competition has intensified, leading to price declines [2][8] Future Outlook - Guotou Electric Power plans to add 3-4 million kW of new renewable energy capacity in 2025, with hydropower from the Yalong River accounting for about two-thirds of this [3][9] - The company is optimistic about future profitability despite challenges in the thermal power market, with expectations of stable income from new projects [10][14] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from policy changes affecting green electricity trading and the impact of coal price fluctuations on procurement costs [13][15] - The introduction of new trading rules by the National Development and Reform Commission may influence the company's operational strategies [20][21] Additional Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year decrease in coal procurement prices, with long-term contracts making up 65% of total procurement [13] - The profitability of the new units in the Qinzhou project is expected to be stable despite increased competition and limited demand growth [10][12] - The company is adjusting its project development strategies in response to market conditions and regulatory changes, particularly in the context of the dual carbon goals [28]

Core Insights - The four major power generation companies in A-shares reported mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with total net profits exceeding 21.4 billion yuan, reflecting a divergence in their financial results [1] - The overall improvement in the profitability environment for the power generation industry is attributed to falling coal prices, supportive electricity pricing policies, and growth in new energy installations [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Huaneng International reported a net profit of 9.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.26% [1][3] - Datang Power achieved a net profit of 4.579 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 47.35% [1][2] - Huadian International's net profit reached 3.904 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.15% [1][3] - Guodian Power's net profit fell to 3.687 billion yuan, a decline of 45.11% year-on-year [1][5] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Datang Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 57.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% year-on-year, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.055 yuan per share [2] - Huadian International's revenue was approximately 59.953 billion yuan, down 8.98% year-on-year, with a total power generation of 1,206.21 billion kWh, a decrease of about 6.41% [3] - Huaneng International reported revenue of 112 billion yuan, a decline of 5.70% year-on-year, while its total profit reached 14.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.93% [3] - Guodian Power's revenue was 77.655 billion yuan, down 9.52% year-on-year, with a non-recurring profit of 3.410 billion yuan, an increase of 56.12% [5][6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The decline in coal prices has positively impacted fuel costs for thermal power companies, with coal costs accounting for 60%-70% of their cost structure [8] - The market for thermal coal has shown a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a significant drop in prices, which has improved short-term profits for power generation companies [8] - The transition towards clean energy is a key focus for the major power generation companies, with Datang Power increasing its clean energy capacity to 40.87% of its total installed capacity [8] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Guodian Power faces challenges due to its high coal power business proportion, which makes it more susceptible to coal price fluctuations and competitive pressures in certain regions [5][9] - The rapid increase in new energy installations presents challenges such as resource scarcity and regulatory hurdles, impacting project development [9] - Future profitability will depend on the progress of clean energy transitions and effective cost management, with leading companies likely to maintain their competitive edge through structural optimization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry in China is experiencing explosive growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by electricity market reforms, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 78.3 GW/184.2 GWh by the end of 2024, and annual growth rates exceeding 100% for three consecutive years [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Framework - The "1+6" basic rule system has established a framework for fair market access for new energy storage and other new operating entities, addressing previous institutional bottlenecks [2][3] - The promulgation of the "Basic Rules for Electricity Market Operation" in 2024 is a milestone, formally recognizing energy storage as a new operating entity with rights to participate in electricity market transactions [3] - The "Basic Rules for Electricity Market Registration" clarify the registration conditions and processes for new energy storage enterprises, facilitating orderly market entry and exit [4] Group 2: Revenue Models and Market Participation - The auxiliary service market is the primary revenue source for new energy storage, with the "Basic Rules for Electricity Auxiliary Service Market" defining key service categories and solidifying the operational status of storage enterprises [4][5] - The principle of "who benefits, who bears" ensures that auxiliary service costs are reasonably passed on to users, indicating a shift beyond zero-sum dynamics in the auxiliary service market [5] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the established regulatory framework, regional disparities in market access for new energy storage remain, with limited participation in the auxiliary service market in many areas [6] - The capacity value of energy storage is becoming increasingly significant as large independent storage stations expand, highlighting the need for a reasonable capacity compensation mechanism [7] - By the end of 2025, the electricity spot market is expected to achieve full coverage, allowing new energy storage to effectively respond to price signals and stabilize load fluctuations [8]

Core Insights - The new energy storage industry in China is experiencing explosive growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 78.3 GW/184.2 GWh by the end of 2024, and annual growth rates exceeding 100% for three consecutive years, driven by electricity market reforms [2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - New energy storage is crucial for balancing the volatility of renewable energy sources, ensuring grid stability, and enhancing energy efficiency [1] - The establishment of the "1+6" basic rule system has removed barriers to market entry for new energy storage, allowing it to participate fairly in electricity market transactions [2][3] - The "Electricity Market Registration Basic Rules" clarify the registration conditions and processes for new energy storage enterprises, promoting orderly market entry and exit [3] Group 2: Market Participation and Revenue Models - The auxiliary service market is the primary revenue source for new energy storage, with the "Electricity Auxiliary Service Market Basic Rules" defining key service categories and establishing a cost-sharing mechanism for independent storage and virtual power plants [3][4] - The capacity trading mechanism is increasingly important as the installed capacity of large independent storage plants expands, highlighting the need for a reasonable capacity compensation mechanism [6] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the established framework, regional disparities in market access for new energy storage remain, with limited participation in long-term markets in non-spot market areas [5] - The demand for auxiliary services is expected to grow as renewable energy penetration increases, positioning new energy storage as a vital support for system stability [4] - By the end of 2025, the electricity spot market is expected to achieve full coverage, allowing new energy storage to effectively respond to price signals and stabilize load fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the "Basic Rules for Metering and Settlement in the Electricity Market," emphasizing its role in enhancing market efficiency and fairness through standardized measurement and settlement processes [3][9]. Group 1: Data Management - Accurate metering data is fundamental for market efficiency, influencing the physical precision of electricity delivery and the overall transaction costs in the market [4]. - The rules establish a standardized framework for various types of settlement data, including archives, contracts, and pricing policies, ensuring a unified approach to data management [4]. - The rules also define measurement units at the national level, standardizing the format for quantity, price, and fee data across the electricity market [4]. Group 2: Process Coordination - The rules outline a clear workflow for metering and settlement, detailing the responsibilities of market participants, grid companies, and market operators [5]. - By clarifying the sequence and requirements of the settlement process, the rules aim to enhance operational efficiency and transparency within the electricity market [5]. Group 3: Timeliness and Efficiency - The rules introduce a "daily clearing and monthly settlement" requirement, specifying timelines for the issuance of settlement documents and payment processes [6]. - This structured approach is designed to improve settlement efficiency, reduce cash flow cycles, and enhance the overall operational quality of the electricity market [6]. Group 4: Fairness and Equity - Fairness is a fundamental principle of the electricity market, with the rules implementing measures to ensure timely, accurate, and traceable settlements [8]. - The rules prohibit the establishment of unbalanced funds and require independent recording of each settlement item, thereby protecting the rights of market participants [8]. - In cases of metering data errors, the rules provide mechanisms for correction and compensation, ensuring that disputes are resolved fairly [8]. Conclusion - The core objective of the rules is to create a "precise value settlement system" that aligns with the modern electricity market, balancing efficiency and fairness [9]. - As the digital economy and energy revolution converge, the importance of accurate metering and reliable settlement will increasingly support the electricity market's role as a modern economic engine [9].