新京报贝壳财经讯 沪指重回4000点，日内涨0.78%，股价创2025年11月以来新高。脑机接口、保险、贵 金属等板块涨幅居前，新华保险涨近8%股价创历史新高，中国平安、中国太保、中国人寿、中国人保 纷纷冲高。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong insurance stocks experienced a collective surge, with New China Life Insurance (01336.HK), China Life Insurance (02628.HK), and China Pacific Insurance (00966.HK) rising over 3% [1] - China Taiping Insurance (02601.HK), Sunshine Insurance (06963.HK), and ZhongAn Online (06060.HK) saw increases of more than 2% [1]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 投资：资本市场稳中向好有望持续推动险企盈利释放 一方面，随着上市险企投资资产规模持续稳健增长以及股票仓位维持在较高水平（25H1末五家上市险企合 计9.3%的股票资产占比已是近十年最高值），权益市场稳中向好将进一步提振险企投资收益表现，进而推 动盈利释放。另一方面，未来随着险企进一步提升OCI股票配置力度，高股息策略下分红收入提升有助于 险企进一步夯实净投资收益安全垫；同时，若26年长端利率企稳态势延续（25年四季度10年期国债收益率 稳定于1.79%-1.87%区间），将利好险企新增固收资产投资收益率。 风险提示： 保费收入不及预期；资本市场大幅波动；利率超预期下行。 2026年1月2日，香港保险指数上涨3.0%，跑赢恒生 ...

Group 1 - Investors are focusing on potential investment opportunities and market dynamics as the new year begins, with brokerages recommending a total of 212 stocks for January [1] - The "spring market rally" is anticipated, supported by policy initiatives and capital inflows, leading analysts to have an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in January [3][4] Group 2 - Among the recommended stocks, Zijin Mining received the highest attention with 8 joint recommendations from brokerages, while Zhongji Xuchuang received 7, and China Duty Free, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and China Pacific Insurance each received 4 [2] - The bullish outlook for Zijin Mining is based on the rising copper cycle driven by demand in new energy and the significant investment value of gold [2] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the "spring market rally" will be supported by ongoing policy efforts and a favorable economic environment, with expectations of a sustained upward trend in the market [3] - The macroeconomic environment is in a marginal recovery phase, with a neutral to loose financial environment, and the technology sector is expected to continue strengthening [3] Group 4 - New investment themes are emerging, with four key allocation directions identified: AI investments aligned with global manufacturing recovery, Chinese equipment exports, consumer recovery driven by inbound tourism and income growth, and non-bank financials benefiting from market expansion [4] Group 5 - In 2025, the performance of stocks recommended by brokerages was notable, with some stocks seeing monthly gains exceeding 150%, indicating strong market interest in these recommendations [5][6] - The number of recommended stocks remained stable, with a significant percentage of them achieving price increases in several months, particularly in August where 82% of recommended stocks rose [6] Group 6 - The performance of brokerage stock indices in 2025 was positive, with all 34 brokerage indices showing increases, and the Guoyuan Securities index leading with a 106% gain [7]

Regulatory Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance will coordinate various funds to address issues related to the education of children from rural migrant workers and social insurance [4] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau reported that the insurance industry generated 5.76 trillion yuan in premium income in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is increasing efforts to guide long-term funds, including insurance and social security funds, into the market [6] - The National Medical Insurance Bureau reported that the basic medical insurance fund's income for the first 11 months of 2025 was approximately 2.63 trillion yuan [7] Company Dynamics - Ping An Life increased its stake in China Merchants Bank H-shares to 19.13% [13] - China Life Asset Management successfully established a 5 billion yuan equity investment plan [19] - AIA Asset Management has been approved to commence operations, marking a new chapter in "Investing in China" [22] - Tianan Insurance defaulted on a 20 billion yuan bond, unable to repay on time [26] Industry Dynamics - A-shares of insurance companies showed strong performance in 2025, with New China Life leading with a 46.03% increase [42] - The Financial Investment Alliance was established to support the development of long-term and patient capital [43] - Thirteen insurance companies have abolished their supervisory boards, indicating a significant change in governance structures within the industry [45] - The establishment of the Sichuan Social Security Science and Technology Innovation Equity Investment Fund with a capital of 20 billion yuan [48] Product and Service Innovations - Personal pension insurance products have rapidly expanded, with 463 products launched by insurance companies by February 26, 2025 [54] - New China Life launched an innovative group medical insurance covering original research drugs, addressing significant pain points in medication coverage [55] - The largest policy for embodied intelligent insurance was issued for over 200 million yuan, covering more than 2,000 robots [56]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

2025年12月31日，中国太保会议审议并通过了聘任刘龙中国太保集团首席投资官（总经理助理）的议案，在得到监管机构核准之前，由苏罡继续履行首席 投资官职责。 2025年12月31日，中国太平洋保险（集团）股份有限公司召开第十届董事会第十九次会议，会议审议并通过了聘任刘龙中国太保集团首席投资官（总经理 助理）的议案，在得到监管机构核准之前，由苏罡继续履行首席投资官职责。 同时，会议还通过了"原总精算师张远瀚离任审计报告"的议案，标志着张远瀚不再担任中国太保任何职务。去年降薪47%，中国太保总精张远瀚或转入平 安；如此"跳槽"会否成为新常态？ 来源：险企高参 此次投资条线核心人事落地，或将进一步衔接集团资产配置战略与业务发展需求。刘龙现为太保资本董事长，太保资本是集团旗下统一的保险私募基金管 理平台，成立近一年便发起设立多支基金，总认缴规模超400亿元。 近年来，中国太保资本运作持续发力，2025年先后落地300亿战新并购基金、200亿私募证券投资基金、50亿成都太保鑫健一期基金等布局。此外，太保集 团在业绩层面同样表现亮眼，2025年前三季度实现净利润457亿元，投资资产达29747.84亿元，旗下太保寿险、太 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend in December 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 4.93% [1] Investment Opportunities - Over ten brokerage firms have released their investment portfolios for January, covering various sectors including finance, information technology, and consumer goods [1] - The most frequently recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, which received recommendations from five brokerage firms, and China Zhongmian and Zijin Mining, which were recommended by four firms each [4] Stock Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price closed at 610.00 yuan with a market capitalization of 67.78 billion yuan, showing an 18.56% increase in December [5] - China Zhongmian's stock price reached 94.56 yuan, with a market capitalization of 19.29 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.03% increase [5] - Zijin Mining had the highest increase among the mentioned stocks, with a rise of over 20% and a closing price of 34.47 yuan [4][5] Sector Preferences - Multiple brokerage firms suggest that the A-share market may continue to experience a "spring rally," with a likely upward trend [6] - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors, with recommendations for stocks that are offensive, flexible, and aligned with recent hot themes [6] - Cyclical sectors such as basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals are highlighted for their structural logic, while thematic investment opportunities in AI and commercial aerospace are also noted [6] Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on technology sectors such as electrical equipment and semiconductors, as well as resource products and high-dividend stocks [6] - The current market environment is seen as favorable for long-term trends driven by policy and liquidity, suggesting a focus on technology, domestic demand, and anti-involution themes [7] - Attention is also drawn to sectors benefiting from AI-enhanced production efficiency and those with higher demand elasticity amid a backdrop of reduced long-term capital expenditure [7]

Group 1 - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are optimistic about the global stock market outlook for 2026, expecting double-digit gains in both developed and emerging markets due to strong earnings growth, declining interest rates, and reduced policy headwinds [1] - The United States is projected to maintain its position as the global growth engine, driven by a resilient economy and an AI-driven supercycle that is leading to record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion [1] - The momentum of the AI industry is spreading globally across various sectors including technology, utilities, banking, healthcare, and logistics, creating both winners and losers amid an already imbalanced K-shaped economy [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has released a list of recommended stocks for investment based on the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI), which includes companies such as AIA Group (01299.HK), Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), Lenovo Group (00992.HK), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) [1] - Other notable stocks on the list include China Ping An (02318.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), Techtronic Industries (00669.HK), and China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) [1] - Additional companies mentioned are ZTO Express-W (02057.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK), and China Aluminum (02600.HK) [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance industry, with expectations of double-digit growth in new premiums and net profit value (NBV) driven by the migration of deposits and improved margins [2][22]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong household savings demand, with insurance products becoming increasingly attractive as low-risk savings options amid declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The transition towards participating insurance products is anticipated to enhance market share for leading insurance companies, as they leverage their stronger investment capabilities and distribution channels [2][3]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment for insurance stocks, driven by high demand for new policies and a stable investment return outlook, which is expected to support valuation recovery [4][8]. Summary by Sections Liability Side Outlook - New business and NBV are projected to grow at double-digit rates, supported by strong household savings and a shift towards insurance products due to declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The insurance sector is expected to maintain stable margins despite the downward adjustment of preset interest rates and the transition to participating insurance [2][22]. Asset Side Outlook - Insurance funds are expected to actively enter the market, with a significant portion of new premiums allocated to equities, particularly in A-shares [3][16]. - The report anticipates a diversified approach to asset allocation, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][19]. Market Performance Review - The insurance sector has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains in both A-shares and H-shares, indicating strong investor confidence [8][4]. - The report notes that the insurance index has increased by 27.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18.2% [8]. Premium Income and Profitability - New premium income is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with specific companies like China Life and Ping An showing substantial increases in their new business premiums [14][32]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a favorable cost structure and investment returns to support profitability in the insurance sector [4][11].