Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that operational issues at the world's three major copper mines will lead to lower actual production in the next two years, prompting an upward revision of copper price forecasts for 2024 and 2027 to $11,313 and $13,500 per ton respectively [1] Group 1: Copper Supply and Demand - The closure of the Grasberg mine is expected to create a supply gap of 270,000 tons next year [1] - European demand is showing signs of recovery, while Chinese demand is stabilizing, putting pressure on copper supply [1] Group 2: Company Target Price Adjustments - Zijin Mining's target price has been raised from HKD 31 to HKD 37, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been increased from HKD 14 to HKD 16.5, also with a "Buy" rating [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Buy," with the target price soaring from HKD 17 to HKD 31, benefiting from rising prices of copper concentrate, gold, and silver [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant activity in the non-ferrous metal sector on September 29, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] Company Summaries - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 6.01%, reaching HKD 39.5 [1] - Chalco International (02068.HK) increased by 4.41%, trading at HKD 2.37 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) saw a rise of 4.02%, with shares priced at HKD 30.52 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 3.44%, with a stock price of HKD 14.45 [1] - China Aluminum (02600.HK) experienced a 3.97% increase, reaching HKD 7.85 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rose by 2.45%, trading at HKD 27.6 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant activity, with various companies showing notable stock price increases following the release of a growth plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for 2025-2026 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 6.01%, reaching 39.5 HKD [1] - Chalco International (02068) rose by 4.41%, priced at 2.37 HKD [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) saw a 4.02% increase, now at 30.52 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) grew by 3.44%, trading at 14.45 HKD [1] - China Aluminum (02600) increased by 3.97%, priced at 7.85 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose by 2.45%, now at 27.6 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Plan - The growth plan indicates an average annual growth of approximately 5% in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 1.5% during the same period [1] - Positive progress is anticipated in the domestic resource development of copper, aluminum, and lithium [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Forecast - Guohai Securities suggests that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the introduction of the growth plan have boosted industry sentiment [1] - The operating rate in the downstream aluminum processing sector is on the rise, with a significant inventory turning point observed [1] - Minsheng Securities notes that with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and ongoing demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, industrial metal prices are likely to continue rising [1]

消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

格隆汇9月28日｜据Choice数据，剔除新股和次新股，周五A股市场共有52家上市公司盘中股价创出历 史新高。这52家公司分别是：紫金矿业、阳光电源、洛阳钼业、赛力斯、华虹公司、ST华通、徐工机 械、浪潮信息、华工科技、晶合集成、杰瑞股份、华海清科、兴业银锡、科博达、科华数据、安集科 技、中科飞测、剑桥科技、纽威股份、电气风电、宁波华翔、北方铜业、华建集团、聚辰股份、应流股 份、精达股份、聚和材料、汇成股份、美湖股份、隆盛科技、菲林格尔、新坐标、*ST宇顺、统联精 密、赛微微电、亚翔集成、优优绿能、捷邦科技、*ST亚振、合锻智能、易德龙、和远气体、锦华新 材、金马游乐、智洋创新、唯特偶、品茗科技、佰奥智能、埃科光电、征和工业、太龙股份、通源环 境。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - The global copper price has significantly increased due to the suspension of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, with LME copper closing at $10,320 per ton on September 24, marking a 3.46% rise [4][5] - On September 25, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze market reached 82,500 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous day, an increase of 2,450 yuan [4][5] - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has a copper reserve of 13.99 million tons and has lowered its third-quarter sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6%, respectively [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the impact of the Grasberg incident is primarily psychological for the market, with minimal direct effects on domestic copper concentrate supply [3][6] - The incident is expected to lead to a slight reduction in global metal supply, with estimates of a decrease of about 5,000 tons in 2025 and 22,000 tons in 2026, which is a small fraction of the expected consumption [6][7] - Despite the recent surge, some market participants believe that copper prices may correct downward as demand weakens after the initial excitement fades [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Domestic copper companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, have shown strong stock performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rising by 9.90% to 13.87 yuan [7][8] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top copper producers globally [8][9] - The company anticipates a stable market as U.S. import tariffs on copper products take effect, which may alleviate supply tensions outside the U.S. [9]

Group 1 - The core transaction on September 26 involved a block trade of 300,000 shares of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., with a transaction value of 4.14 million yuan and a price of 13.80 yuan per share [2][3] - The buyer was Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, while the seller was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai Wuding Road Securities Business Department [2][3] - Over the past three months, Luoyang Molybdenum has recorded a total of three block trades, amounting to 157 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The closing price of Luoyang Molybdenum on the day of the transaction was 13.80 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.50% [2] - The stock had a turnover rate of 2.26% and a total trading volume of 5.504 billion yuan for the day, with a net inflow of main funds amounting to 92.13 million yuan [2] - In the last five days, the stock has increased by 10.31%, with a total net inflow of funds reaching 1.078 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The latest margin financing balance for Luoyang Molybdenum is 2.519 billion yuan, which has decreased by 86.6271 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 3.32% [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum was established on December 22, 1999, with a registered capital of 4.2788620352 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant trading activity with a notable increase in stock price and high financing levels, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Financing Activity - On September 25, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock rose by 9.90% with a trading volume of 8.928 billion yuan - The financing buy-in amount for the day was 1.033 billion yuan, while the financing repayment was 1.094 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 61.3273 million yuan - As of September 25, the total financing and securities lending balance was 2.542 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 2.519 billion yuan, accounting for 1.04% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. Securities Lending Activity - On the same day, 174,600 shares were repaid in securities lending, while 235,100 shares were sold short, amounting to 3.2608 million yuan based on the closing price - The remaining securities lending volume was 1.6646 million shares, with a balance of 23.088 million yuan, also exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Luoyang Molybdenum has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 6.9489 million shares to 648 million shares - Other notable shareholders include Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, both of which increased their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1: Market Impact - The closure of Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a fatal landslide is expected to significantly disrupt global copper supply, potentially leading to a price increase and improved profitability for copper companies [1][2] - Analysts predict a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply in the next 12 to 15 months, with possible further losses of 1 to 2 million tons, equating the impact to the simultaneous closure of three major copper mines [1][3] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Copper is increasingly recognized as a critical material for green energy transition and digital economy development, with electric vehicles using four times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2030, data centers powering AI servers could consume an additional 1 million tons of copper, indicating strong future demand [2] Group 3: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its price forecast for copper, suggesting an upward risk to its previous estimate of $9,700 per ton for December 2025, now expecting prices to stabilize between $10,200 and $10,500 per ton [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains bullish, with expectations of reaching $10,750 per ton by 2027 due to challenges such as increased mining depth and declining ore grades [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. reported a revenue of approximately 256.03 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.78% to about 4.45 billion yuan [4] - Zijin Mining's copper production reached 566,853 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with copper sales contributing 27.8% to total revenue [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. achieved a copper production of 353,600 tons in the first half of 2025, with revenue from mining operations increasing by 29.05% to 31.446 billion yuan [4] - Minmetals Resources reported a total copper production of 140,368 tons in Q2 2025, a 54% increase year-on-year, driven by improved output from three copper mines [5]