Group 1 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a projected 25 basis points reduction in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The U.S. economic data, including a 2.9% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 2.6% year-on-year increase in PPI, supports the Fed's rate cut expectations [2][3] - The industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to improved demand and supply dynamics, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index up 58.7% year-to-date [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is experiencing a shift from off-peak to peak season, with increased processing rates and supply disruptions providing support for prices [3] - The copper industry is set for growth, with policies aimed at enhancing supply chain resilience and increasing domestic copper resource availability by 5%-10% by 2027 [3] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are leading in copper production, with Zijin Mining producing 570,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [6] Group 3 - The prices of non-ferrous metals have shown an upward trend, with copper, tungsten, and molybdenum prices increasing by 10%, 102%, and 21% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] - A significant number of companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported profitability, with 129 out of 141 companies achieving profits in the first half of 2025 [5] - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reported substantial increases in net profits, with Zijin Mining's net profit rising by 18.8% in Q2 2025 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and performance of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) in the context of the A-share market, particularly driven by its copper and cobalt production and the rising prices of these metals [1][9]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue was approximately 60 billion yuan before 2013, primarily from domestic operations, but it has since expanded through overseas acquisitions, including significant stakes in copper and cobalt mines in Congo and Ecuador [3]. - By 2024, the company expects to produce 650,000 tons of copper and 114,000 tons of cobalt, marking substantial year-on-year growth of 65% and 106%, respectively [3][10]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue and net profit have shown compound annual growth rates of 17.2% and 55%, respectively, with the latter growing significantly faster due to the strong performance of its mining operations [3][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.83%, but net profit surged by 60% to 8.67 billion yuan, driven by increased production and favorable pricing [7]. Market Dynamics - The price of copper has risen dramatically from a low of $4,371 per ton in 2020 to $10,064.5 per ton, resulting in improved profitability for the company, with gross profit margins increasing from 7.47% to 21% [4]. - The company has also benefited from a reduction in financial expenses, which fell by 44% due to decreased borrowing and interest rates [7]. Future Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum's future growth is supported by its strategic resource acquisitions and the anticipated increase in copper and cobalt production over the next five years [10]. - The company is expected to maintain a favorable growth trajectory, with copper prices likely to remain strong due to supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [10][11]. Industry Context - The A-share market has seen significant movements, with the technology and financial sectors leading the way, while cyclical sectors like metals are expected to benefit from a potential shift in market focus [18][22]. - The current valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum, with a PE ratio of 17 and a PB ratio of 3.97, suggests that it remains within a reasonable range without significant bubble risks [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, particularly in the technology and non-ferrous metal sectors, with a focus on the significant growth of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) and its strategic acquisitions that have bolstered its production capacity and profitability [2][11]. Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock has surged over 100% this year, with a market capitalization exceeding 280 billion yuan, ranking just below Zijin Mining in the non-ferrous metal sector [3]. - The company has transitioned from a primarily domestic focus with annual revenues of about 6 billion yuan before 2013 to a global player through strategic acquisitions of various mining assets, significantly increasing its resource base [5]. - By 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's copper and cobalt production is expected to reach 650,000 tons and 114,000 tons, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 65% and 106% [5]. Financial Growth - From 2020 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue and net profit have shown compound annual growth rates of 17.2% and 55%, respectively, driven by the growth in its mining operations and rising copper prices [6]. - The average copper price has increased from $4,371 per ton in 2020 to $10,064.5 per ton, contributing to a significant rise in the company's profitability, with gross profit margins increasing from 7.47% to 21% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.83%, but net profit surged by 60% to 8.67 billion yuan, attributed to increased production and favorable pricing [8]. Market Trends - The article discusses the broader market context, noting that the A-share index has rebounded significantly since early 2024, with financial and technology sectors leading the gains [16]. - The banking sector has seen substantial growth, driven by market preferences and state-backed investments, while the technology sector has experienced a dramatic rise in valuations, leading to concerns about potential bubbles [21][22]. - The article suggests that the next phase of market direction may favor cyclical and consumer sectors, which currently have lower valuation levels compared to the technology sector [23][24]. Future Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with projected copper and cobalt production reaching 800,000 tons and over 150,000 tons by 2028, respectively [12]. - The anticipated copper price stability, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, is expected to support the company's performance [12]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings about potential market corrections and external economic risks that could impact copper prices and, consequently, Luoyang Molybdenum's profitability [27].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened, leading to upward price movements in both industrial and precious metals [1][2] - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the recent price reaching 80,810 CNY/ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1] - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum price at 21,075 CNY/ton, supported by stable production and improved demand from the automotive sector [1][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases due to soft labor market signals and expectations of continued central bank purchases [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - **Copper**: Prices have rebounded due to reduced market supply and stable demand, with domestic copper inventory at 149,000 tons [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Prices have increased due to stable supply and improved demand, with LME aluminum inventory rising to 485,300 tons [1][22][23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 821.23 CNY/g and silver at 9,773 CNY/kg, supported by macroeconomic factors [2][27] 2. Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices have shown mixed trends, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 286,500 CNY/ton, while market sentiment remains cautious [3][61] - **Rare Earths**: Prices have stabilized, with light rare earth oxide at 575,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4] 3. Market Predictions - **Copper**: Expected to maintain a high level of volatility, with prices projected to range between 79,600-81,000 CNY/ton [14] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 20,400-21,000 CNY/ton [23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to range between 800-840 CNY/g, while silver is projected to be between 9,000-9,900 CNY/kg [28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price by 5.12% to HKD 13.34 is linked to a significant procurement contract by Oracle, valued at USD 300 billion, which has ignited investor interest in the computing power and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price increased by 5.12%, reaching HKD 13.34, with a trading volume of HKD 405 million [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Oracle's procurement contract worth USD 300 billion (approximately CNY 2.14 trillion) has heightened global investor enthusiasm for computing power and AI-related sectors [1] - The application of cobalt materials in the transistor contact layer significantly enhances device performance, particularly in advanced processes like 5nm, by reducing contact resistance and improving transistor switching speed, thereby supporting the performance leap of high-end AI chips [1]

洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报13.34港元，成交额4.05亿港元。 据了解，钴材料在晶体管接触层中的应用显著提升了器件性能。在5nm等先进制程中，钴硅化合物可大 幅降低接触电阻，进而提高晶体管开关速度，为高端AI芯片的算力跃升提供支持。天风证券 （601162）指出，铜钴业务持续为公司贡献"量+价"。25H1产量超进度完成，未来计划促进TFM东区 17K工艺技改项目落地，继续提产降本，KFM加大勘探力度增储。此外，受刚果(金)暂停钴出口4个月 的临时性政策及市场库存水平下降影响，预计钴价高位支撑公司营收。 消息面上，近日，甲骨文(Oracle)一份高达3000亿美元(约合人民币2.14万亿元)的算力采购合同，引爆全 球投资者对算力、AI相关板块的热情，算力行业未来增长确定性及预期也进一步推高。中原证券 （601375）认为，北美云厂商从AI投资中获得了积极回报，并持续加大AI基础设施的投资力度，推动 AI算力硬件基础设施需求旺盛。 ...

据了解，钴材料在晶体管接触层中的应用显著提升了器件性能。在5nm等先进制程中，钴硅化合物可大 幅降低接触电阻，进而提高晶体管开关速度，为高端AI芯片的算力跃升提供支持。天风证券指出，铜 钴业务持续为公司贡献"量+价"。25H1产量超进度完成，未来计划促进TFM东区17K工艺技改项目落 地，继续提产降本，KFM加大勘探力度增储。此外，受刚果(金)暂停钴出口4个月的临时性政策及市场 库存水平下降影响，预计钴价高位支撑公司营收。 消息面上，近日，甲骨文(Oracle)一份高达3000亿美元(约合人民币2.14万亿元)的算力采购合同，引爆全 球投资者对算力、AI相关板块的热情，算力行业未来增长确定性及预期也进一步推高。中原证券认 为，北美云厂商从AI投资中获得了积极回报，并持续加大AI基础设施的投资力度，推动AI算力硬件基 础设施需求旺盛。 智通财经APP获悉，洛阳钼业(03993)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报13.34港元，成交额4.05亿港元。 ...

消息面上，美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%，8月核心CPI同比增长3.1%，大体符合预期，强化了市场对美联 储降息的押注。中信证券研报称，未来数月美国总体CPI同比增速可能将在3%附近徘徊，维持美联储年 内将连续降息三次各25bps的预测，降息交易应该是近期比较明朗的主线。 智通财经APP获悉，有色股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.77%，报7.51港元；中国宏 桥(01378)涨4.78%，报26.28港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨3.97%，报26.18港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨 3.39%，报13.12港元。 银河证券发布研报称，美联储9月降息的预期升温，流动性边际宽松与对美元指数的压制，利好工业金 属商品价格。基本面看，国内8月制造业PMI小幅回升0.1pct至49.49%，景气度已有边际改善。在当前传 统淡旺季转换之际，下游加工企业开工率有所回升，而供应端面临冶炼厂集中检修、政策调整等因素影 响，产量释放或环比下降，工业金属社会库存去化有望加速，或催化工业金属价格走强。 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks continue their recent upward trend, with China Aluminum (601600) rising by 5.77% to HKD 7.51, China Hongqiao (01378) up by 4.78% to HKD 26.28, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing by 3.97% to HKD 26.18, and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) gaining 3.39% to HKD 13.12 [1] - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, aligning with expectations and strengthening market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the U.S. overall CPI growth rate may hover around 3% in the coming months, maintaining the forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities reports that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could lead to marginal liquidity easing and pressure on the U.S. dollar index, benefiting industrial metal prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, China's manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 49.49% in August, indicating marginal recovery in economic activity [1] - As the traditional peak and off-peak seasons transition, downstream processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in operating rates, while the supply side faces challenges from concentrated maintenance at smelting plants and policy adjustments, potentially leading to a decrease in production and accelerated destocking of industrial metal inventories [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a total profit of 14.903 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.671 billion yuan, up 60.07% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] Financial Performance - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 50.15%, a decrease of 9.01 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The H1 performance exceeded expectations, indicating sustained long-term growth potential [1] Business Segments - The copper and cobalt business continues to contribute to both volume and price increases, with H1 production exceeding planned targets [1] - Future plans include the implementation of the TFM East Zone 17K process technology upgrade project to enhance production and reduce costs, alongside increased exploration efforts at KFM to boost reserves [1] Market Conditions - The temporary suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo for four months, along with declining market inventory levels, is expected to support high cobalt prices, benefiting the company's revenue [1] Diversification and New Projects - The company is expanding its resource portfolio with the addition of gold products, specifically the Kaigehaos Gold Mine, which has a reserve of 659 million tons and an average gold grade of 0.55g/t, containing 359 tons of gold [1] - The surrounding infrastructure is relatively well-developed, and combined with the company's advanced mining and processing technology, this mine is expected to become a large-scale, low-cost world-class gold mine [1] Profit Forecast - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 16.7 billion, 19 billion, and 21.1 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 14.9 billion, 16 billion, and 18.1 billion yuan [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 16x, 14x, and 13x for the respective years [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [1]