Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has achieved significant growth, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 138th in the Fortune China 500 list. The company is focused on sustainable growth through resource acquisitions and project expansions [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 8.2 billion and 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [4]. - The average price of LME copper increased by only 2.5% in the first half, yet the company anticipates a 12.68% increase in copper production to approximately 360,000 tons [4][8]. - The cobalt price has rebounded significantly due to an export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the average price rising from $9.95 per pound to over $16 per pound [5][6]. Group 2: Project Development - The company maintains its production capacity targets for the TFM and KFM projects, with a goal of reaching 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper capacity by 2028 [10][15]. - The Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador is expected to start production before 2029, with an average annual gold output of approximately 370,000 ounces (11.5 tons) [11][15]. - The company has a strong cash flow, with operating cash inflow expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan in 2024, a 108.4% increase year-on-year [12]. Group 3: Acquisition Strategy - The company is focusing on acquisitions primarily in copper and gold, while also considering opportunities in other metals [13]. - The company does not prioritize short-term price fluctuations but evaluates acquisition opportunities based on a long-term perspective of 10 to 20 years [2][14]. - The company has identified multiple potential acquisition projects and is well-prepared for future resource acquisitions [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of various industries in the first half of the year has shown significant improvement, with 52.88% of the 938 listed companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced substantial profit growth, driven by rising prices of raw materials such as copper and gold [2] - 20 companies in the non-ferrous metals industry reported a year-on-year profit increase of over 50%, with 6 companies achieving a profit doubling [2] - For instance, Jincheng Mining expects a net profit of 1.07 billion to 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.62% to 82.78%, attributed to increased sales volume and prices of mineral products [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 51.37% to 67.98% due to rising copper and cobalt prices [2] - Huayou Cobalt's profit is expected to rise by 55.62% to 67.59%, with a projected net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, driven by increased cobalt prices [2] Group 2: Gold Industry - The gold sector has also reported strong performance, with companies like Western Gold expecting a net profit of 130 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66% [3] - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 84.30% to 120.50% due to higher gold sales prices and increased sales volume [3] - Other gold companies, including Chifeng Gold and Zhongjin Gold, also expect net profit increases exceeding 50% [3] Group 3: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The agricultural chemicals sector has seen significant profit growth, with 49 out of 89 companies reporting increases, representing 55.1% [4] - Xian Da Co. expects a net profit of 130 million to 150 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73%, driven by rising market prices of its main product [4] - Su Li Co. anticipates a net profit of 72 million to 86 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1008.39% to 1223.91% due to increased sales of pesticides [4] - Li Min Co. expects a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [4] Group 4: Fertilizer Industry - Fertilizer companies like Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower are also forecasting over 50% profit growth due to increased product demand [5] - Yara International expects a net profit of 730 million to 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170% to 244%, driven by higher production and sales volumes [5] - Dongfang Iron Tower anticipates a net profit of 451 million to 495 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 63.80% to 79.78% [5] Group 5: Fluorochemical Industry - The fluorochemical sector has benefited from rising market prices, with companies like Sanmei Co. expecting a net profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.97% to 171.67% [6] - Juhua Co. anticipates a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 136% to 155% due to rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [6] - Yonghe Co. expects a net profit of 255 million to 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.30% to 148.49% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost demand for copper and aluminum, leading to a surge in related sectors such as hydropower, cement, infrastructure, and steel [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector in the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with a rise of 3.90% on July 21, 2023, and continued gains of 3.82% the following day [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper, experienced notable price increases, with China Aluminum rising 6.33% to 6.05 HKD and Jiangxi Copper increasing 5.09% to 16.10 HKD [1] Group 2: Project Impact - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and is expected to create significant demand for construction materials, particularly in the cement and steel industries during the construction phase [3][7] - The project will also drive demand for copper and aluminum due to the need for equipment and transmission cables, with an anticipated annual power generation exceeding 300 billion kWh [7][9] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is projected to outperform the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.2% from early 2025 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported by the ongoing transition in the economy, with copper prices being influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated increase in demand from the renewable energy sector [5][6][7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies directly benefiting from the hydropower project, such as those involved in cable and special copper material manufacturing [9] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in regions with abundant hydropower resources, particularly in electrolytic aluminum and copper smelting projects, as well as in supporting electric grid companies [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,130.03 points, up 0.54% or 135.89 points, with a total turnover of HKD 266.07 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.39% to 9,075.6 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.38% to 5,606.83 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - BYD (01211) saw a significant increase of 5.09%, closing at HKD 134.2, contributing 37.78 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - In the first half of 2023, BYD's domestic sales exceeded 2.113 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, while overseas sales reached 472,000 units, up 128.5% [2] - Other notable blue chips included Xinyi Glass (00868) up 7.23%, Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 6.15%, while New Oriental (09901) and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) saw declines of 4.92% and 3.5% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Coal stocks surged, with Mongolian Coking Coal (00975) up 11.55% and Yancoal Australia (01171) up 9.53%, driven by rumors of capacity control measures in the coal industry [3][4] - Infrastructure stocks performed strongly, with China Communications Construction (01800) rising 7.57% and China Railway Construction (01186) up 6.03% [4] - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion, is expected to boost infrastructure investment [5] Commodity and Material Stocks - Non-ferrous metal stocks continued to rise, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 8.94% and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) up 7.12%, supported by upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [6] - The photovoltaic sector was active, with Kaisa New Energy (01108) rising 8% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 6.67%, as supply-side reforms are anticipated to improve industry conditions [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Longgong (03339) surged 15.83% after announcing a significant profit increase forecast for the first half of 2025 [8] - Fufeng Group (00546) rose 10.8% on expectations of a substantial profit increase due to higher sales and lower raw material costs [9] - Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513) reached a new high, up 9.37%, following positive clinical trial results for a new drug [10] - Harbin Electric (01133) climbed 8.14% after announcing a profit forecast that exceeded expectations [11] - Meizhong Jiahe (02453) faced pressure, down 6%, due to a planned share placement at a discount [12]

Group 1 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Materials Index reported a value of 4406.56 points, showing a monthly increase of 7.39%, a three-month increase of 14.25%, and a year-to-date increase of 15.75% [1] - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Index Series, which includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Index, and the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (1.53%), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1.28%), China Rare Earth (1.16%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of companies in the materials sector [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 49.61%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 38.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 11.76% [2] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals represent 40.64%, chemicals 37.39%, non-metallic materials 9.51%, steel 8.03%, and paper and packaging 4.43% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. in the small metals industry, indicating a relatively low PE ratio compared to the industry average [1][2] - As of July 18, Luoyang Molybdenum's closing price was 8.21 yuan, with a PE ratio of 11.40 and a total market capitalization of 175.65 billion yuan [1] - The company ranks 5th in the small metals industry, which has an average PE ratio of 63.07 and a median of 53.34 [1][2] Group 2 - The latest financial report for Q1 2025 shows that Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 90.47% to 3.946 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit margin for the company stands at 22.33% [1] - A total of 70 institutions hold shares in Luoyang Molybdenum, with a combined holding of 139.7292 million shares valued at 1.177 billion yuan [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.51%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 1.65% [1] - The SaaS sector saw significant gains, with companies like Huilyang Technology rising by 15.56%, Yika by 10.11%, and Kingdee International by 7.27% [1] - The stablecoin concept also surged, highlighted by Yaocai Securities rising by 16.93% and Huajian Medical increasing by 20.41% following the U.S. House of Representatives passing a bill to establish a legal framework for stablecoins [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced a broad increase, with Lingbao Gold rising by 6.24% and China Molybdenum by 3.96% as spot gold prices rose above $3340 per ounce [2] - Major financial sectors, including Chinese brokerage and insurance stocks, also saw gains, with Xingsheng International up by 7.41% and China Life by 5.13% [2] Group 3: Automotive and Related Sectors - The automotive sector, including lithium battery and Tesla-related stocks, showed strong performance, with Tianqi Lithium rising by 5.82% and NIO increasing by 4.62% [3] - Other consumer sectors such as film, tobacco, and food stocks also performed well, with companies like Simoer International rising by 4.99% [3] Group 4: Declining Sectors - Sectors such as cosmetics, aviation, and luxury goods saw declines, with China Eastern Airlines dropping by 2.72% [3] - Notably, Chuangmeng Tiandi experienced a significant drop of 30.12%, despite expectations of turning a profit in the first half of the year [3]

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, copper production is projected to be 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, and cobalt production is expected to be 61,100 tons, up 13.05% year-on-year [7] - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold in June 2025, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and a gold content of 638 tons [8] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.217 billion, 18.093 billion, and 18.759 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.67, 9.57, and 9.23 [9] Financial Summary - The company anticipates a revenue of 213.029 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and projected revenues of 223.839 billion, 232.065 billion, and 240.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, increasing to 17.0% by 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, peaking at 20.2% in 2025, and then declining to 18.3% by 2027 [11]

港股有色金属股震荡上升，金力永磁(06680.HK)、天齐锂业(009696.HK)涨超6%，灵宝黄金(03330.HK) 涨超5%，赣锋锂业(01772.HK)、洛阳钼业(03993.HK)均涨超4%，紫金矿业(02899.HK)涨超3.5%。 ...