Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, driven by rising product prices and increased production and sales of copper products [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6% [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported a revenue of 50.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.99%. The net profit for this quarter was 5.608 billion yuan, up 96.4% year-on-year and 18.69% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales Performance - Copper production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 543,400 tons, an increase of 14.14% year-on-year, while sales reached 520,300 tons, up 10.56% year-on-year. Cobalt production was 88,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.84%, but sales dropped by 36.08% to 51,000 tons [1][2]. - The company is expected to exceed an annualized copper production of 700,000 tons based on current production rates [1]. Price and Margin Analysis - The average LME copper price for the first three quarters of 2025 was $9,589 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%. The average SHFE copper price was 78,300 yuan per ton, up 4.42% year-on-year. The average price for standard-grade cobalt was $14.52 per pound, reflecting a 14.8% increase [2]. - The copper segment achieved a gross profit of 20.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, with a gross margin rising from 52.34% to 54.07%. The cobalt segment's gross profit was 3.924 billion yuan, up 60.4%, with a gross margin increasing from 36.49% to 63.46% [2]. Future Outlook and Capacity Expansion - The company aims to achieve an annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons over the next five years. The KFM Phase II project, with an investment of $1.084 billion, is expected to be completed by 2027, adding a processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year and an average annual output of 100,000 tons of copper metal [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Due to the resonance of copper and cobalt prices and exceeding copper production expectations, the company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 18.6 billion, 24.4 billion, and 25.4 billion yuan, respectively. This corresponds to a PE ratio of 20, 15, and 15 times based on a market capitalization of 375.5 billion yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) to HKD 23.4 and maintains a "Buy" rating, citing strong growth potential in copper production and improved profit forecasts [1] Group 1: Production and Growth - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production is expected to exceed the guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons in 2025, with 543,000 tons already achieved in the first three quarters of this year [1] - The increase in production is attributed to technological upgrades in production lines and improvements in power supply [1] - Management is confident that production will continue to grow in 2026 and 2027, with sustainable contributions from new production [1] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - UBS has raised its net profit forecasts for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [1] - The upward revision in profit forecasts is primarily due to increased price expectations for cobalt and tungsten, as well as improved copper production outlook [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares has been increased from HKD 20.5 to HKD 23.4 [1] - UBS continues to recommend a "Buy" rating based on the positive outlook for the company's production and profitability [1]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Construction Investment forecasts Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 19.989 billion, CNY 24.800 billion, and CNY 27.928 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.28, 13.12, and 11.65 based on current stock prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 145.485 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 14.280 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 72.61%, setting a new historical high for the same period and surpassing the total for the previous year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 5.608 billion [1] Group 2: Production and Projects - The company reported significant increases in production for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate fertilizer in the first three quarters of 2025, with copper production reaching 543,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, setting a new historical high for the same period [1] - The company plans to invest up to USD 1.084 billion in the construction of the KFM Phase II project, which is progressing steadily [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - In Q3 2025, the average LME copper spot price increased by 2.9% from Q2 to USD 9,797 per ton, while prices for cobalt, molybdenum, iron, APT, niobium, and monoammonium phosphate saw increases of 11.4%, 18.0%, 38.9%, 3.4%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The company has received the largest export quota from the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, allowing for an export volume of 6,500 tons for the remainder of 2025, which accounts for 35.9% of the total quota [2] - The tightening supply in the cobalt market is expected to maintain high price levels, with future export volumes limited to 96,600 tons over the next two years, a reduction of approximately 100,000 tons [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of the Katanga Copper-Cobalt Belt, which produces 25% of the world's copper and 80% of its cobalt, with Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) at its center, controlled by China's Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are discussed, emphasizing the DRC's use of export quotas as a bargaining chip in global power struggles [3][4] - Luoyang Molybdenum's operational resilience amidst external pressures is underscored, showcasing its advanced digital collaboration platform, MyLink, which enhances global team coordination [4][6] Industry Overview - The DRC's cobalt export restrictions are aimed at addressing market oversupply and boosting national revenue, reflecting a broader trend of resource nationalism in the region [3] - TFM's operations remain stable despite geopolitical tensions, with ongoing mining activities and community engagement [3][4] - The article emphasizes the role of infrastructure development brought by Chinese teams, which supports the mining operations and local communities [3][4] Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum has expanded its production capacity significantly, tripling output over four years and achieving a top MSCI ESG rating [4][6] - The company is set to become the first African mine to receive the highest international copper standard certification in 2024, enhancing its governance influence in the mining sector [4][6] - The integration of digital tools like MyLink has transformed operational efficiency, allowing for rapid decision-making and improved communication across global teams [7][11] Digital Transformation - The introduction of MyLink has streamlined global collaboration, reducing the time required to schedule meetings from days to minutes [9][11] - The platform integrates various business systems, enabling a unified approval process that enhances operational efficiency [12][13] - AI capabilities within MyLink have restructured health, safety, and environmental (HSE) management, allowing for real-time data analysis and risk identification [22][24] Cultural Integration - Luoyang Molybdenum is shifting from a "privileged enclave" management style to a community-focused approach, fostering inclusivity and shared facilities for local and expatriate employees [25][26] - Significant investments in community projects have improved local living conditions, with a focus on building trust and collaboration between management and local workers [28][30] - The digital platform facilitates transparent communication, enhancing trust among diverse teams and promoting a unified corporate culture [30][31] Conclusion - Luoyang Molybdenum's operations in the DRC exemplify a new model of globalization that emphasizes infrastructure development, digital collaboration, and community engagement [32][34] - The company's approach reflects a shift from resource extraction to value co-creation, showcasing a more open and confident image of Chinese enterprises abroad [36]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities projects Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 19.989 billion, 24.800 billion, and 27.928 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.28, 13.12, and 11.65 times, and recommends a "buy" rating based on the company's industry position, growth potential, and low-cost advantages [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.280 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.61%, setting a new historical high for the same period [2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.608 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 96.40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.69% [2] Group 2: Production and Projects - The company reported a significant increase in copper production, with a total output of 543,400 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.14%, achieving a historical high for the same period [3] - The company plans to invest no more than 1.084 billion USD in the KFM Phase II project, expected to commence production in 2027, adding an average of 100,000 tons of copper metal annually upon reaching full capacity [3] Group 3: Pricing Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price of LME copper increased by 2.9% from Q2 to 9,797 USD per ton, with other key minerals also experiencing price increases [4] Group 4: Cost Management - The company achieved a 10.94% year-on-year decrease in operating costs in the first three quarters of 2025, while simultaneously increasing production and sales [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum received the largest export quota from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a remaining export limit of 6,500 tons for the rest of 2025, accounting for 35.9% of the total quota [6] - The tightening supply in the cobalt market is expected to push prices higher, with a projected export volume of only 96,600 tons over the next two years, leading to a shift from surplus to a shortage in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities projects Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 19.989 billion, 24.800 billion, and 27.928 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.28, 13.12, and 11.65, recommending a "buy" rating due to the company's industry position, growth potential, and low-cost advantages [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.280 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 72.61% and surpassing the previous year's total [2] - The net profit for Q3 reached 5.608 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.69% [2] Production and Projects - The company reported a significant increase in copper production, with a total output of 543,400 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.14% [3] - The company plans to invest up to 1.084 billion USD in the KFM Phase II project, expected to commence production in 2027, adding an average of 100,000 tons of copper metal annually once fully operational [3] Commodity Prices - In Q3 2025, the average LME copper spot price increased by 2.9% from Q2 to 9,797 USD per ton, with other key minerals also experiencing price increases [4] Cost Management - The company achieved a 10.94% year-on-year reduction in operating costs during the first three quarters of 2025, driven by refined management and technological innovations [5] Cobalt Market Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum received the largest export quota from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a remaining export limit of 6,500 tons for 2025, which is 35.9% of the total quota [6] - The tightening supply in the cobalt market is expected to push prices higher, with a projected reduction in supply leading to a shift from surplus to a shortage of approximately 30,000 tons [6]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyin International reported that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for the third quarter reached 5.6 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, and exceeding the bank's expectations by 62% due to higher-than-expected copper sales and a lower effective tax rate [1] Group 1 - The bank anticipates that Luoyang Molybdenum's earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 will grow by 42% quarter-on-quarter, driven by recent copper price increases and one-time disposal gains [1] - The bank has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 4% to 19% following the earnings release [1] - Following the earnings announcement, the target price was adjusted from 13.91 HKD to 15.56 HKD, while maintaining a "Hold" rating due to the high marginal tax rate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which diminishes the benefits from strong copper prices [1]

小金属 洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 相关报告 1、《铜产量超预期，公司管理精益 求精》2025-04-03 2024-10-31 报告摘要 股价与行业-市场走势对比 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 1454.85 亿元，同比 -6.0%；实现归母净利润 142.8 亿元，同比+72.6%；扣非净利润 145.37 亿元，同比 +70%。其中 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 507.13 亿元，同比-2.36%，环比+3.99%； 实现归母净利润 56.08 亿元，同比+96.4%，环比+18.69%；实现扣非净利润 58.13 亿元，同比+98.6%，环比+21.21%。业绩超预期，主要由于主要产品价格同比上升， 叠加铜产品产销量同比实现增长，实现利润同比上升。 铜钴板块量价齐增 | 评级： 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | 2024A | 2025E ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant gains in the non-ferrous metal sector, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] Group 2 - China Aluminum (02600.HK) saw a rise of 10.34%, reaching HKD 10.14 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) increased by 9.53%, trading at HKD 51.7 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rose by 5.97%, with a price of HKD 34.78 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a 5.08% increase, priced at HKD 32.66 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 4.38%, reaching HKD 17.38 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by favorable macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following a meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Aluminum (02600) increased by 10.34%, reaching HKD 10.14 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose by 9.53%, reaching HKD 51.7 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) saw a 5.97% increase, reaching HKD 34.78 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) increased by 5.08%, reaching HKD 32.66 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 4.38%, reaching HKD 17.38 [1] Group 2: Market Factors - The LME copper price showed strong fluctuations, reaching a historical high [1] - International gold prices rebounded after a decline to a three-week low [1] - Everbright Futures noted that the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders boosted market sentiment, despite a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates supply tightness will drive prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [1] - Despite recent volatility in precious metal prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged [1] - The article suggests that with continued liquidity and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources, the investment interest in commodities is likely to persist [1]