事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现营收460.06 亿元，同比-0.25%，环比-21.05%；归母净 利润39.46 亿元，同比+90.47%，环比-24.97%；扣非净利润39.28 亿元，同比+87.82%，环比-13.99%。 盈利预测：我们预计2025-2027 年公司EPS 分别为0.68、0.77、0.84 元，PE 分别为11、9、9 倍，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示：项目进度不及预期，产能释放不及预期，金属价格大幅下降，海外开矿政治性风险等。 主营产品产量继续稳产增产，铜、钴、钨、铌均实现超产。25 Q1 公司铜/钴/钼/钨/铌/磷肥产量分别为 17.06/3.04/0.33/0.20/0.26/27.95 万吨，同比分别为+15.65%/+20.68%/-3.83%/+3.75%/+4.39%/+0.24% ， 环 比分别为-2.03%/+3.30%/-17.75%/-7.69%/+11.70%/-1.75%；按指引中值计算，产量完成度分别为 27%/28%/25%/28%/26%/24%。其中铜、钴产量超产主要得益于刚果（金）TFM 和KFM 两座世界级铜 矿山、总计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results that met expectations, with total revenue of 46.01 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 0.25%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 21.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 90.5% [7] - The company plans to acquire Lumina Gold Company for approximately 581 million Canadian dollars, which will add a gold project to its multi-metal portfolio [7] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 14.77 billion yuan, 16.77 billion yuan, and 18.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 214.3 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 0.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 14.77 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9.1% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.69 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 18.0% [5] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 18.0% [5]

编者按 近年来，作为推动传统产业整合、传统企业提质、战略性新兴产业快速壮大的重要手段，"并购重组"正获得越来越多政府部门和市场主体的认可与支持。 2024年，新"国九条""科创板八条""并购六条"相继发布，并购重组活力率先在资本市场被激活，并向全国各省、各产业快速蔓延，重点产业并购案例不断 涌现。 为更好释放并购重组价值，大河财立方开设"并购汇"栏目，报道追踪并购重组市场动态，纵深研究新政策，拆解新模式，剖析新案例，直面新问题，打造 全国影响力。 【大河财立方 记者 吴春波】2025年4月22日，全球矿业市场迎来一则重磅交易——中国矿业巨头洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司（以下简称洛阳钼业）公 开宣布，将以5.81亿加元（约合人民币30亿元）全现金方式收购加拿大多伦多交易所上市公司Lumina黄金（TSXV:LUM）100%股权。 此消息一经发布，洛阳钼业A股股价当日涨4.05%、H股涨9.58%。在全球黄金价格持续强势的背景下，此次收购"精准卡位"特征明显，将进一步完善洛阳 钼业的全球资产布局和产品布局。 收购标的情况： 金平均品位0.55g/t，内蕴黄金金属359吨 Cangrejos金矿属于典型的斑岩型金矿 ...

·拉升涨超10%，泡泡玛特创历史新高！此前新品LABUBU掀海外抢购狂潮七麦数据显示，4月25日，泡 泡玛特官方应用登顶美国APP Store购物榜，这也是该官方应用在购物榜的首次登顶，同时泡泡玛特 APP还在一日之内跃升了114个位次，成为免费总榜的第四名。南财快讯记者了解到，此次泡泡玛特官 方应用热度飙升与其近期上市的新品密切相关。4月24日，泡泡玛特旗下人气IP LABUBU（又称拉布 布）在全球发售第三代搪胶毛绒产品"前方高能"系列，产品发售在全球引发抢购风潮。受此影响，今日 早盘，A股文创IP、谷子经济概念局部异动。详情>> ·"从伏牛山麓到刚果河畔"，营收首破2000亿后洛阳钼业或启新一轮并购"从伏牛山麓到刚果河畔，从中 原腹地到全球舞台……"洛阳钼业的年报高度概括了公司近些年的发展。该公司发布一季报，当期营收 表现稳定，但是在铜、钴价格上涨的拉动下，公司净利润达到39.46亿元，较上年同期再增90.47%。而 作为最主要利润来源的铜、钴产品，则出自洛阳钼业前期收购的刚果金KTM、TFM两大"世界级矿 山"。凭借对以上项目的成功运营，2024年公司铜产能已经跻身全球前十位，并蝉联全球第一大钴矿生 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's recent quarterly report indicates strong financial performance driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, with net profit increasing by 90.47% year-on-year to 3.946 billion yuan, and total revenue surpassing 200 billion yuan for the first time [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported stable revenue in the first quarter, with net profit reaching 39.46 billion yuan, a 90.47% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - As of the end of the first quarter, Luoyang Molybdenum had cash reserves of 32.05 billion yuan, with total current assets reaching 92.3 billion yuan [2][13]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be approximately 32.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 108.4% [12]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production capacity is now among the top ten globally, and it remains the largest cobalt producer worldwide [1]. - The company achieved a copper production of 170,500 tons in the first quarter, slightly below the previous quarter but exceeding annual guidance [4]. - Cobalt production increased by 20.68% during the same period, despite a temporary suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4][5]. Strategic Acquisitions and Management Changes - The company announced a 30 billion yuan acquisition of Canadian Lumina Gold, aiming to enhance its asset portfolio amid rising gold prices [8]. - Recent management changes, including the resignation of the chairman and vice-chairman, suggest a strategic shift towards external acquisitions and international expansion [2][14]. - New executives with extensive experience in mining investment and operations have been appointed, aligning with the company's growth strategy [16][17]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a copper production target of 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028, although this may lead to a lack of immediate performance growth in the next three years [1][3]. - The management's "three-step" strategy focuses on cost reduction, capacity expansion, and achieving world-class operational standards, indicating a clear roadmap for future growth [19].

洛阳钼业(03993)涨超4%，一季度净利同比增长九成，公司拟收购Lumina黄金公司。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数涨0.07，涨16点，报21997点，恒生科技指数涨0.50%。港股早盘成交 966亿港元。 耀才证券金融(01428)大涨66%， 拟获蚂蚁控股溢价约17.6%提全购要约。 金猫银猫(01815)早盘涨9.6%，明日起更名为"珠峰黄金"， 机构称市值未反应拓展上游业务潜力。 泡泡玛特(09992)涨超11%，Labubu现象级破圈助力官方应用登顶美国App STORE购物榜。 布鲁可(00325)涨超7%，IP潮玩延续高景气度，机构指公司新品节奏加速高增可期。 古茗(01364)涨超9%，股价再创历史新高，较招股价已涨超1.4倍。 绿色动力环保(01330)一度涨9%，一季度归母净利同比增长33.21%至1.85亿元。 荣昌生物(09995)绩前涨超4%，多项成果入选2025 ASCO口头报告，泰它西普三期MG数据积极。 内房股集体走低，机构称Q2地产政策倾向于托底而非强刺激。金辉控股(09993)跌5%；绿城中国(03900) 跌3%。 中国神华(01088)绩后跌3.57%， 一季度 ...

[Table_Summary] 金：牛市未尽。1）短期金价冲高又回落，主要系市场定价中美贸易摩擦 边际缓和+联储独立性担忧缓解，叠加短线交易偏拥挤，属于正常调整： 本周美方对华关税立场有所软化，先是 4/23 凌晨贝森特提及预计中美贸 易关系缓和将在不久的未来发生，而后 4/23 晚间外媒称特朗普政府正考 虑对中国商品关税降至 50%-65%。此外，4/23 特朗普表示无意解雇美联 储主席鲍威尔，也打消了前期市场对联储独立性的担忧。同时，黄金短 期交易相对拥挤（尤其国内市场，本周沪金隐含波动率升至近 5 年峰值， 沪金单日成交额显著放量），放大了避险情绪边际缓和下的资金流出冲 击。2）黄金牛市并未结束：先看短期问题，黄金会需要一些时间震荡来 消化前期的热钱涌入，以及实现波动率正常化，但上涨逻辑并未损坏， 第一，本周关税缓和更像是美方在资本市场压力下 The Art of Deal 的再 次演绎，中方明确表示中美尚未就关税问题进行任何谈判，且中方显然 已做好准备不会轻易妥协；第二，虽然特朗普言辞反复，但其底层逻辑 仍是要求修正美国在全球利益版图中的位置，因此即便与中方开启谈判， 其核心诉求如削减贸易赤字等较难实 ...

Summary of Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) - **Date of Earnings Call**: Q1 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: Q1 2025 revenue was 460.1 billion CNY, approximately flat year-on-year, with the mining segment revenue increasing by 44% to 197.5 billion CNY, driven by higher gross margins for copper and molybdenum products [2][6] - **Gross Margins**: Copper product gross margin reached 55%, while molybdenum product gross margin was 61% [2][6] - **Cost Management**: Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 30% year-on-year, and interest expenses fell by 27% due to optimized debt structure [2][6] - **EBITDA**: Increased by 47% to 8.6 billion CNY [2][6] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 90% to 3.95 billion CNY, with a return on equity of 5.49% [2][6] - **Debt Levels**: Asset-liability ratio decreased to a historical low of 50%, with cash reserves at 32.1 billion CNY [2][7] Production and Sales Performance - **Copper Production**: Total copper production reached 170,000 tons, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with sales of 124,000 tons, impacted by delays in sales contracts [3][11] - **Molybdenum Production**: Molybdenum production was stable at 3,341 tons, achieving 25% of the production guidance [3][6] - **Nickel and Phosphate Production**: Nickel production in Brazil was 2,616 tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, while phosphate production was slightly up by 0.2% [3] Strategic Developments - **Acquisition of Ecuador Gold Mine**: A new gold mine project in Ecuador was acquired, expected to start development by late 2026 or early 2027, with production anticipated by 2029 [4][17] - **Management Changes**: Recent management adjustments aim to enhance leadership and execution capabilities, with a focus on flexible acquisition strategies [4][10][12] - **ESG Initiatives**: The company maintains a strong ESG commitment, achieving 100% coverage across all operations and maintaining an MSCI ESG rating of two A's [8][9] Market and Regulatory Environment - **Congo Policy Impact**: The company is monitoring the impact of export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt sales, with no immediate effects noted in Q1 [2][15] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Luoyang Molybdenum is aware of geopolitical risks in its operating regions and is taking measures to mitigate these risks [21][23] Future Outlook - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Plans to achieve copper and cobalt production capacity of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][14] - **Market Strategy**: The company will continue to adapt its strategies to market changes, ensuring stable sales performance [11][12] - **Focus on Gold Projects**: The company is optimistic about gold projects, with a strategic focus on expanding its portfolio in this area [27][28] Additional Insights - **Cash Flow**: Free cash flow for Q1 was 890 million CNY, with significant reductions in capital expenditures by 74% [7][12] - **Inventory Management**: The company is managing copper inventory effectively, with a current stock of over 140,000 tons [13] - **Long-term Growth Strategy**: Luoyang Molybdenum aims to leverage its strong balance sheet and cash reserves to pursue growth opportunities in both existing and new markets [12][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 net profit of 3.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.47%, driven by a significant rise in gross profit from the copper and cobalt segments [2][10]. - The acquisition of a large greenfield gold mine project is expected to open a second growth curve for the company, with a total capital expenditure of approximately 1.976 billion USD planned for the project [3][4]. - The management team has undergone significant changes, marking a new chapter for the company, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and strategic direction [4][49]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 46.006 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.05% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.946 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 90.47% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.97% [10]. Copper and Cobalt Segment Performance - The copper and cobalt segment saw a gross profit increase, contributing to a net profit increase of 1.874 billion yuan year-on-year [2][14]. - The production of copper and cobalt metal reached 170,600 tons and 30,400 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 15.6% and 20.7% [24]. Acquisition of Gold Mine Project - The company plans to acquire 100% of Lumina Gold for approximately 581 million CAD, which includes the Cangrejos gold mine project in Ecuador [3][12]. - The Cangrejos project has a resource estimate of 1.376 billion tons with an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [3][39]. Management Changes - The company has made significant management adjustments, including the resignation of the chairman and the appointment of new executives with extensive industry experience [49][50]. Future Growth Projections - The company aims to achieve annual copper production of 800,000 to 1 million tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2028 [4][51]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 14.975 billion yuan, 17.521 billion yuan, and 20.035 billion yuan respectively [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 关税预期缓和助推铜铝反弹，黄金仍逢调增 配 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周金价受贸易冲突缓和预期，叠加前期加速上涨获利盘兑现，出现大幅波动，黄金股随之调 整。1）短期修整，更多来自情绪修复。关注 5、6 两月关税冲突后的经济数据落地，衰退叙事 仍将延续。2）过去经验来看，金价快速回调下，趋势性资金央行或保险有望加速购买。本轮去 美元化趋势资金有望熨平金价波动、兜底回撤。3）大部分黄金股估值修复近 20 倍，仍处历史 低分位。美国关税预期缓和，工业金属反弹。钨方面，自然资源部下达通知，2025 年第一批钨 矿（三氧化钨含量 65%，下同）开采总量控制指标 58000 吨，同比去年同期下降 4000 吨，下 滑 6.5%，供给刚性逻辑延续。中国前期已对钨等 25 种稀有金属产品进行出口管制。钨供给刚 性极强，价格底部持续抬升，需求修复或供给扰动下，钨价也有望呈现向上弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S04 ...