Core Insights - Intel's CEO Chen Lifeng delivered a speech in Chinese at the 2025 Intel Technology Innovation and Industry Ecosystem Conference, emphasizing the company's commitment to strengthening partnerships in the AI wave and exploring new opportunities across client, data center, and edge computing sectors [1] Group 1: Technology Advancements - Intel announced the mass production of the 18A process at its Fab 52 facility in Arizona, featuring full surround gate transistor technology and backside power delivery, achieving a 30% increase in transistor density and a 15% performance improvement at the same power consumption compared to the previous generation [2] - The third-generation Core Ultra processor, based on the 18A process, is set to begin shipping later this year, marking a significant advancement in Intel's technology roadmap [2] Group 2: Product Performance - The third-generation Core Ultra processor boasts Lunar Lake-level energy efficiency and Arrow Lake-level performance, with up to 16 new performance cores (P-core) and efficiency cores (E-core), resulting in over a 50% performance increase compared to the previous generation [4] - The processor includes 12 Xe cores, delivering over a 50% improvement in graphics performance, and the platform's AI performance can reach up to 180 TOPS [4] - Intel's Xeon 6+ processors, also based on the 18A process, are expected to be launched in the first half of 2026, positioning them as highly efficient server processors [4]

Core Insights - Intel's next-generation processor, Panther Lake, based on the Intel 18A process, will be unveiled at CES in January 2024 [1] - Panther Lake is the third-generation flagship product of Intel's AI PC platform, combining high efficiency from the Intel® Core™ Ultra 200V series with high performance from the 200H series [1] - The multi-core performance of Panther Lake has improved by 50% at the same power consumption, thanks to the collaboration of three CPU cores [1] - The graphics performance of Panther Lake has increased by over 50% compared to the previous generation, featuring up to 12 third-generation Xe cores [2] Performance Enhancements - The new Darkmont efficiency core not only saves energy but also provides strong computing power, allowing users to experience near-plugged performance even in battery mode [1] - Panther Lake offers discrete-level gaming and creative experiences for thin and light laptops, enabled by its advanced graphics capabilities [2] - The introduction of XeSS multi-frame generation technology allows AAA games to run smoothly at high quality settings [2]

Core Insights - Intel's CEO, Chen Lifeng, delivered his first public speech in Chinese at the 2025 Intel Technology Innovation and Industry Ecosystem Conference, celebrating Intel's 40 years in the Chinese market and expressing optimism for future collaboration [1] Group 1 - Intel aims to strengthen partnerships across various sectors, including client devices, data centers, and edge computing, to seize new opportunities in the AI wave [1] - The CEO emphasized the company's commitment to creating products that address critical challenges faced by partners, thereby helping them gain confidence in the market [1]

Core Insights - Intel announced that its 18A process technology has entered mass production at the Fab 52 facility in Arizona, marking a significant milestone in its technological advancements [1] - The 18A process utilizes fully wrapped gate transistor technology and backside power delivery, achieving improvements in both energy efficiency and transistor density [1] - Compared to the previous generation process, the 18A technology offers a 15% performance increase at the same power consumption and a 30% increase in transistor density [1] - This technology is considered the foundation for Intel's next three generations of products, indicating a rapid advancement in product development based on this technology [1]

Core Insights - Former Intel CEO, Kissing, has transitioned to venture capital and is leading seven startups to Taiwan, praising the region's strong supply chain manufacturing capabilities [1][2] - Kissing emphasizes Taiwan's role as a key stage for technological breakthroughs and innovation, particularly in the semiconductor and deep tech sectors [2] Group 1: Investment and Collaboration - Kissing's visit includes collaboration with major Taiwanese manufacturers like TSMC and Foxconn, highlighting a long-term investment relationship with Foxconn, which has invested in Playground Global for over ten years [1] - The seven startups brought by Playground Global span various fields, including power management, optical communication, interconnect, and lithography technology, addressing current industry pain points [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Ayar Labs is focused on optical communication technology, while other startups are working on improving power architecture chips and reducing costs for EUV equipment [2] - Kissing notes that Taiwan is the best testing ground for hardware companies to validate innovations, supporting startups from concept to mass production [2]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's EMIB advanced packaging technology is gaining attention from Apple and Qualcomm, being considered a viable alternative to TSMC's products [1] Group 1: Company Interest - Apple has recently posted job openings for DRAM packaging engineers, specifically seeking experience in advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, EMIB, SoIC, and PoP [1] - Qualcomm is also looking for a product management director for its data center business, with a requirement for familiarity with Intel's EMIB technology [1] Group 2: Technology and Market Position - Intel's CEO and executives have emphasized that their Foveros and EMIB technologies have attracted interest from multiple customers and are capable of large-scale production [1]

Core Insights - SoftBank's total market value of U.S. stock holdings reached $26 billion for Q3 2025, up 4% from $24.9 billion in the previous quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 95.94% of the total portfolio value [2] Holdings Activity - New Purchases: 4 stocks [2] - Added to Existing Positions: 2 stocks [2] - Sold Out of: 2 stocks [2] - Reduced Holdings in: 4 stocks [2] Top Holdings - T-Mobile US (TMUS) is the largest holding with approximately 45.17 million shares valued at about $10.81 billion, representing 41.64% of the portfolio, with a decrease of 29.26% in shares held [3][5] - NVIDIA (NVDA) is the second-largest holding with approximately 32.11 million shares valued at $6 billion, accounting for 23.07% of the portfolio, with an increase of 5.19% in shares held [3][5] - Intel (INTC) is a new addition with approximately 86.96 million shares valued at $2.92 billion, making up 11.23% of the portfolio [3][6] - Symbotic (SYM) holds approximately 39.83 million shares valued at $2.15 billion, representing 8.27% of the portfolio, with no change in shares held [3][6] - Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) has approximately 31.43 million shares valued at $610 million, accounting for 2.35% of the portfolio, with no change in shares held [4][6] Recent Transactions - SoftBank sold all its shares in NVIDIA, cashing out approximately $5.8 billion [3] - New positions were established in Klarna Group, Ambiq Micro, and Concorde International Group [6] - SoftBank completely exited positions in Cipher Mining and Oracle [6] - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Nu Holdings, Metsera, and Lemonade, while a substantial increase was noted in Full Truck Alliance [6][8]

Summary of Microprocessor Market Share Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the microprocessor market, specifically focusing on the performance of major players: AMD, Intel, and ARM in the 3Q25 period [1][8]. Key Points Market Performance - Total microprocessor unit shipments increased by 3.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), surpassing the seasonal expectation of 2.4% QoQ, driven by strong server and notebook CPU shipments [1][5]. - Notebook MPU shipments rose by 3.0% QoQ, exceeding the seasonal decline of 1.5% QoQ, while desktop MPU shipments increased by 7.1% QoQ, which was below the seasonal increase of 18.1% QoQ [16]. - Server MPU shipments were up 1.8% QoQ, also above the seasonal expectation of a 5.8% decline, attributed to improved demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) [16]. Company-Specific Insights Intel (INTC) - Intel's overall MPU unit share decreased by 157 basis points QoQ from 65.8% in 2Q25 to 64.2% in 3Q25 [2][9]. - Specific declines in market share: - Notebook MPU share fell by 162 basis points QoQ from 66.9% to 65.3% - Desktop MPU share decreased by 131 basis points QoQ from 63.5% to 62.2% - Server MPU share dropped by 174 basis points QoQ from 63.3% to 61.5% [2][9]. AMD - AMD's overall MPU unit share increased by 108 basis points QoQ from 21.0% in 2Q25 to 22.1% in 3Q25 [3][11]. - Notable gains: - Notebook MPU share rose by 102 basis points QoQ from 17.3% to 18.3% - Desktop MPU share increased by 135 basis points QoQ from 30.2% to 31.5%, marking the highest share in the model's history since 2002 [3][11]. - AMD's server MPU share saw a slight decline of 8 basis points QoQ from 23.7% to 23.6% [3][11]. ARM - ARM's MPU unit share grew by 49 basis points QoQ from 13.2% in 2Q25 to 13.7% in 3Q25 [4][14]. - Gains included: - Notebook MPU share increased by 60 basis points QoQ from 15.7% to 16.3% - Server MPU share surged by 182 basis points QoQ from 13.0% to 14.8%, driven by Nvidia's GB200 strength and increased internal server adoption by CSPs [4][14]. - However, ARM's desktop MPU share slightly decreased by 4 basis points QoQ from 6.33% to 6.29% [4][14]. Analyst Ratings - The firm maintains a Neutral rating on AMD and a Sell rating on Intel [5][17]. Risks and Considerations - **Competition**: AMD faces direct competition from Intel in the microprocessor market and from NVIDIA in the graphics and AI GPU market, which could impact market share and estimates [20]. - **PC End Market**: AMD derives approximately 30% of its sales from the PC industry, making it sensitive to fluctuations in IT spending [21]. - **Customer Risk**: A significant portion of AMD's revenue comes from major clients like Sony and Microsoft, making it vulnerable to changes in their order volumes [21]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Intel's revenue is heavily reliant on the PC and server segments, which are also sensitive to IT spending trends [25]. Valuation - AMD's target price is set at $260.00, reflecting a 32x C27E EPS, aligned with historical averages due to high growth in the AI sector [19]. - Intel's target price is set at $29.00, based on its estimated book value, which is lower than the average for semiconductor companies due to reduced profitability [24]. Conclusion - The microprocessor market remains competitive, with AMD and ARM gaining ground at the expense of Intel. The overall market shows resilience with above-seasonal shipment growth, but risks related to competition and market dependency on IT spending persist. Analyst ratings reflect a cautious outlook for Intel while maintaining a neutral stance on AMD.

Core Insights - Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger will personally take charge of the AI and advanced technology team, directly overseeing the company's AI strategy and product roadmap due to significant personnel changes in the core team [1][4] - The departure of former Chief Technology and AI Officer Sachin Katti to OpenAI and the head of data center AI Saurabh Kulkarni to AMD has led to considerable instability within the AI department [1][4] Group 1 - Gelsinger acknowledged in the memo that the AI department has experienced major personnel upheaval in recent months [4] - The decision for Gelsinger to lead the AI business reflects the company's determination but also highlights the talent loss and competitive pressure Intel faces in the AI sector [4] - The ongoing expansion of AMD and NVIDIA in AI chips and software stacks raises questions about Intel's ability to leverage new architectures and foundry advantages to regain its competitive edge, which will be a focal point for the market by 2026 [4]

Core Insights - Intel's wafer foundry revenue is projected to be only $120 million by 2025, which is merely one-thousandth of TSMC's revenue during the same period, highlighting the significant gap in market presence [2] - Despite initial challenges in attracting external customers for the Intel 18A process, Intel aims to leverage its internal product successes to draw in external clients [3] - Intel's overall foundry business is expected to reach breakeven by the end of 2027, driven by a shift from DUV to EUV processes, which will increase average wafer prices at a rate three times faster than cost increases [4] Financial Projections - Intel's wafer foundry revenue for 2025 is estimated at $120 million, compared to TSMC's approximately $101 billion in revenue for the first ten months of this year [2] - The transition to EUV technology is anticipated to significantly improve Intel's financial performance in the foundry sector, with a projected breakeven point by 2027 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Intel is undergoing structural adjustments across various departments, including foundry services, client products, and artificial intelligence, indicating a proactive approach to transformation under the new CEO [4] - The company has secured over $10 billion in investments from the U.S. government, SoftBank, and NVIDIA, and has established a deep collaboration plan with NVIDIA in the PC and server chip sectors [4] Market Challenges - Intel faces substantial challenges in its foundry business, needing to demonstrate the performance and power efficiency advantages of its Intel 18A process through its own products [4] - Potential collaborations with companies like Tesla, Broadcom, and Microsoft are critical for Intel's ability to regain competitiveness in the global wafer foundry market [4]