Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its various businesses and continuously expanding its cigarette export operations [4] - The company has signed a framework agreement with a subsequent contracting party, Mongkun Company, under the same terms as the original agreement [4] - The company has applied for and received approval from the Stock Exchange to amend existing exemptions to cover the framework agreement with subsequent contracting parties [4] Business Performance - The cigarette export business is one of the company's main operations, achieving a volume of 3,339.7 million cigarettes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [5] - The revenue from cigarette exports reached 1,573.6 million HKD in 2024, up 30.2% year-on-year, accounting for 12% of total revenue [5] - The gross profit from cigarette exports was 277.4 million HKD, reflecting a 69.1% year-on-year increase and representing 20% of total gross profit [5] - The growth in the company's cigarette business is attributed to expanding operational areas, introducing new products, and optimizing the product mix [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate total revenue of 143.96 billion HKD, 156.48 billion HKD, and 169.00 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 9.39 billion HKD, 10.44 billion HKD, and 11.71 billion HKD, with growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 12% [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 HKD, 1.51 HKD, and 1.69 HKD, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.74, 13.26, and 11.82 [6] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported total revenue of 13,074 million HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 28.41% in 2024 to 19.01% in 2027 [11] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 9,817 million HKD in 2024 to 13,524 million HKD in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is the only publicly listed tobacco entity within the China Tobacco system, tasked with integrating overseas assets. It has shown steady growth in performance since its listing in 2019, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 869 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, unique operating model, and significant potential for capital operations and international business expansion [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 10,726 million yuan - 2024: 12,107 million yuan - 2025E: 13,141 million yuan - 2026E: 14,231 million yuan - 2027E: 15,376 million yuan - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 44% for 2023, 13% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 543 million yuan - 2024: 791 million yuan - 2025E: 869 million yuan - 2026E: 998 million yuan - 2027E: 1,131 million yuan - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 62% for 2023, 46% for 2024, and 10% for 2025 [5][6]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a planned business model within the tobacco monopoly system, benefiting from a strong competitive barrier and stable profitability [6][19]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected as follows: - Leaf imports: 63% - Leaf exports: 16% - Cigarette exports: 12% - New tobacco products: 1% - Brazilian business: 8% - The gross profit contributions are 60% from leaf imports, 6% from leaf exports, 20% from cigarette exports, 1% from new tobacco products, and 13% from Brazilian business [6][19]. Capital Operations and International Expansion - The company is positioned as the designated platform for capital market operations and international business expansion for China Tobacco. It has substantial overseas asset reserves, indicating significant potential for global capital operations [6][7]. - The report draws parallels with Japan Tobacco's global expansion strategy, suggesting that the company could achieve similar valuation premiums through effective integration of overseas assets [9][19]. Key Assumptions and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates steady growth in leaf import volumes, with expected year-on-year increases of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - Cigarette export volumes are projected to grow by 15% in 2025 and 2026, and by 12% in 2027, driven by the recovery of global travel and market expansion [8]. - New tobacco product exports are expected to see a 15% increase annually from 2025 to 2027, despite a projected decrease in average prices [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through both organic growth and external collaboration, positioning itself as a key platform for capital operations and international business expansion under China Tobacco's high-quality development strategy [6][8]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 13.07 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [6]. - The company has shown robust growth in its import and export business, particularly in tobacco leaf and cigarette exports, with significant increases in both revenue and profit margins [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.84 billion HKD in 2023 to 17.21 billion HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 599 million HKD in 2023 to 1.23 billion HKD in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 14% in 2025 [6][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.87 HKD in 2023 to 1.77 HKD in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [6][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with a forecast of 28.4% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 24.6% by 2027 [8]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to rise from 60% in 2023 to 69.3% in 2025, indicating a potential increase in leverage [8]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 28.0 in 2023 to 13.6 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with both organic and external growth strategies being effectively implemented [5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13,074 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 853.74 million HKD, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 42.6% [6] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both import and export of tobacco products, with notable growth in various segments [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11,836.22 million HKD, Net Profit of 598.77 million HKD - 2024: Revenue of 13,074.24 million HKD, Net Profit of 853.74 million HKD - 2025E: Revenue of 14,590.45 million HKD, Net Profit of 965.40 million HKD - 2026E: Revenue of 15,989.09 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,124.04 million HKD - 2027E: Revenue of 17,346.28 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,287.66 million HKD [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.86 HKD by 2027 [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.54% in 2024 to 11.59% in 2027, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10] Business Segment Performance - Import Business: - Revenue from tobacco leaf imports is projected to be 8,254.25 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.17% [9] - Export Business: - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach 2,061.54 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.78% [9] - Cigarette export revenue is forecasted at 1,573.64 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.19% [9] - New Tobacco Products: - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected to be 135.18 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.00% [9] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 28.00 to 29.40 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 to 21 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The company expects net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, achieving a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase [2]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 10.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of higher-margin Brazilian business [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion in 2024, a 30.2% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 277 million, marking a 69.1% rise [3]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports improved to 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of self-operated channels [3]. Product Segmentation - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 84 million, up 85.8% [3]. - New tobacco product exports achieved a revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 7 million, reflecting a 23.2% growth [4]. - The Brazilian business segment reported a revenue of HKD 1.050 billion, a 37.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 184 million, up 30.2% [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.31 per share, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 37% and a dividend yield of 1.9% based on the current stock price [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% for the same periods [11][13]. - The estimated gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 11.57% by 2027 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, with a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase. The gross margin improved to 10.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion, a 30.2% increase, with gross profit rising by 69.1% to HKD 277 million, resulting in a gross margin of 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with gross profit soaring by 85.8% to HKD 84 million, leading to a gross margin of 4.1%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The new tobacco products export business recorded revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with gross profit of HKD 7 million, up 23.2%, and a gross margin of 5.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with projected revenues of HKD 13.14 billion in 2025, HKD 13.671 billion in 2026, and HKD 14.155 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% respectively [11][13]. - The net profit is projected to grow to HKD 960 million in 2025, HKD 1.021 billion in 2026, and HKD 1.076 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% respectively [11][13]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 29.2 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025, with a forecasted EPS of HKD 1.32 [14]. - The DCF valuation estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 20.607 billion, corresponding to a price of HKD 29.4 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK$13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK$13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK$8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK$1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK$135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$14.416 billion, HK$15.753 billion, and HK$17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$958 million, HK$1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance with a total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan, up 42.6% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for the second half of 2024 was 4.370 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, which is a 48.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The company improved its profitability significantly through product and channel optimization and pricing strategy adjustments, achieving an annual gross margin of 10.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - **Tobacco Leaf Imports**: Total revenue was 8.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The volume and average price changed by -4.5% and +7.0% respectively [2] - **Tobacco Leaf Exports**: Revenue reached 2.062 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +18.4% and +5.4% respectively [2] - **Cigarette Exports**: Revenue was 1.574 billion yuan, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +19.1% and +9.3% respectively [2] - **New Tobacco Products Exports**: Revenue was 135 million yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +12.5% and -7.6% respectively [3] - **Brazil Operations**: Revenue was 1.050 billion yuan, a 37.0% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of -2.4% and +40.3% respectively [3] 2025 Outlook - The company expects to continue improving profitability and maintain a stable increase in per-share dividends [4] - It aims to focus on both organic and external growth, enhancing its capital operation platform [4] - The company plans to dynamically assess international conditions to ensure a stable supply of high-quality tobacco leaves and cultivate growth in emerging markets [4] - Continued focus on cigarette brand development and optimization of product and brand matrix is anticipated, along with an expansion of the cigar business and tax markets [4] - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 970 million yuan, 1.122 billion yuan, and 1.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5X, 16.9X, and 15.5X [5] - Key financial indicators for 2024A include total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan, net profit of 854 million yuan, and an EPS of 1.23 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a high growth in profits for 2024, driven by its cigarette export business, tobacco leaf import business, and operations in Brazil. The total revenue for 2024 reached 13.074 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 854 million HKD, up 42.6% [4][5] - The company is positioned as the designated overseas platform for China National Tobacco Corporation, focusing on capital market operations and international business expansion. The business model ensures stable profitability and excellent cash flow, with new growth points from cigarette and new tobacco product exports [4] - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 14.396 billion HKD, 15.648 billion HKD, and 16.900 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13,074 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 854 million HKD, reflecting a 43% increase [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 939 million HKD, 1,044 million HKD, and 1,171 million HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 12% [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.36 HKD, 1.51 HKD, and 1.69 HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.14, 18.12, and 16.15 [5][7] Business Segment Performance - The tobacco leaf import business reported an import volume of 111,980 tons, a decrease of 4.5%, with revenue of 8,254.2 million HKD, up 2.2%. The gross profit was 825.6 million HKD, an increase of 12.7% [4] - The tobacco leaf export business saw an export volume of 83,487 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, with revenue of 2,061.5 million HKD, up 24.8%, and gross profit of 83.9 million HKD, up 85.8% [4] - The cigarette export business achieved an export volume of 3,339,700 thousand sticks, a growth of 19.1%, with revenue of 1,573.6 million HKD, up 30.2%, and gross profit of 277.4 million HKD, up 69.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 13.07 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The gross profit reached HKD 1.38 billion, up 26.6%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 854 million, reflecting a 42.6% increase, exceeding previous profit forecasts [1][3]. - The company plans to focus on both organic growth and strategic acquisitions to enhance its business scale, operational quality, and profitability by 2025 [3]. - The company holds a unique position as the exclusive operator for international tobacco business under the China National Tobacco Corporation, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion and mergers [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from tobacco leaf exports was HKD 2.06 billion, up 24.8%, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 4.1% [9]. - The revenue from tobacco leaf imports was HKD 8.25 billion, a 2.2% increase, making up 63.1% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 10.0% [9]. - The revenue from cigarette exports was HKD 1.57 billion, increasing by 30.2%, representing 12.0% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 17.6% [9]. - The revenue from new tobacco products exports was HKD 140 million, up 4.0%, accounting for 1.0% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 5.2% [9]. - The revenue from operations in Brazil was HKD 1.05 billion, a 37.0% increase, representing 8.0% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 17.5% [9].