Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to Central Hong Kong, a company involved in the tobacco industry, specifically focusing on the performance and outlook for 2024. Key Points and Arguments Overall Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 13 billion for 2024, representing an 11% year-over-year increase [4] - Gross profit increased by 26.26% to HKD 1.378 billion, while net profit surged by 43% to HKD 850 million [4] - Earnings per share rose by 43% to HKD 1.23 [4] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.31 per share, leading to a total annual dividend of HKD 0.46, a 44% increase from the previous year [4] Business Segments - The tobacco business continues to be a strong revenue driver, with exports showing improved pricing power and growth in new tobacco products [2][5] - The company has successfully transitioned from duty-free to taxable markets, expanding its market channels [2] - The new tobacco products segment saw a 13% increase in export volume, reaching 760 million sticks, with revenue growth of 4% to HKD 1.4 billion [7] Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently increased shareholder returns, having issued dividends seven times since 2021 [2] - The investment return rate for shareholders who held shares since the IPO has reached 408% by the end of 2024 [3] Market Positioning and Strategy - The company is focused on enhancing its market image and maintaining strong communication with investors and analysts [3] - There is an ongoing effort to optimize the ESG framework and explore sustainable supply chain practices [3] - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities both within and outside the Chinese tobacco system to enhance its competitive position [8][9] Future Outlook - The company expressed confidence in maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio, which has increased from 30.2% to 37% over the years [10] - Future growth is expected to be driven by internal improvements in product mix and external market expansion [12][18] - The company is exploring new product developments, including potential collaborations similar to those seen in the industry [23] Challenges and Risks - The tobacco industry faces seasonal fluctuations and external factors such as climate impacts on supply [15][32] - The company is monitoring international market conditions and pricing trends, particularly in key tobacco-producing regions [25][32] Additional Insights - The company is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency and product offerings to adapt to market demands [20][21] - There is a focus on increasing the self-operated business scale to improve overall profitability [27][30] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company has upgraded its website to improve external communication and marketing effectiveness [3] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust supply chain amidst fluctuating market conditions [15][16] - The company is continuously evaluating its inventory and receivables in relation to seasonal business cycles [19] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and market challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and growth potential of China Tobacco Hong Kong amid global market volatility, emphasizing its unique market positioning and robust financial performance in 2024 [1][8]. Group 1: Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 13.074 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 903 million, up 30.4% [1]. - The tobacco leaf export business saw a volume increase of 18.4% to 83,487 tons, with revenue rising 24.8% to HKD 2.061 billion, reflecting strong demand and improved profitability [2]. - The tobacco leaf import business remained stable with a revenue growth of 2.2% and a gross profit increase of 12.7%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin Brazilian tobacco [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - The Brazilian operations reported a revenue increase of 37% to HKD 1.05 billion, with gross profit rising 30.3% to HKD 184 million, showcasing the success of the company's global strategy [3]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with cigarette export sales reaching HKD 1.574 billion, a growth of 30.2%, and gross profit increasing by 69.1% [4]. - The introduction of both duty-free and duty-paid channels for cigarette sales marks a significant shift in the company's market strategy, enhancing growth potential [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - As the only publicly listed company under China National Tobacco Corporation focused on tobacco, the company enjoys exclusive rights in specific regions and for new tobacco products globally, creating a strong competitive moat [5]. - The company's business model, characterized by a "cost-plus fixed profit margin" approach for tobacco imports, provides stability against market fluctuations [5]. - The asset-light structure, with current assets totaling HKD 9.372 billion and a cash position of HKD 2.858 billion, supports operational flexibility and reduces financial strain [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The unique combination of exclusive operations and a light asset model positions the company favorably for sustained growth, particularly in the context of shifting global capital dynamics [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its various businesses and continuously expanding its cigarette export operations [4] - The company has signed a framework agreement with a subsequent contracting party, Mongkun Company, to expand its cigarette export business [4] - The company has applied for and received approval from the Stock Exchange to amend existing exemptions to cover the framework agreement with the subsequent contracting party [4] Business Performance - The cigarette export business is one of the company's main operations, achieving a volume of 3,339.7 million cigarettes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [5] - The revenue from cigarette exports reached 1,573.6 million HKD in 2024, up 30.2% year-on-year, accounting for 12% of total revenue [5] - The gross profit from cigarette exports was 277.4 million HKD, reflecting a 69.1% year-on-year increase and representing 20% of total gross profit [5] - The growth in the company's cigarette business is attributed to expanding operational regions, enhancing tax-inclusive business, and optimizing product mix [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate total revenues of 143.96 billion HKD, 156.48 billion HKD, and 169.00 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is 9.39 billion HKD, 10.44 billion HKD, and 11.71 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 12% [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 HKD, 1.51 HKD, and 1.69 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.74, 13.26, and 11.82 [6] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 13,074 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 28.41% in 2024 to 19.01% by 2027 [11] - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a projected net profit margin of 6.53% for 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its various businesses and continuously expanding its cigarette export operations [4] - The company has signed a framework agreement with a subsequent contracting party, Mongkun Company, under the same terms as the original agreement [4] - The company has applied for and received approval from the Stock Exchange to amend existing exemptions to cover the framework agreement with subsequent contracting parties [4] Business Performance - The cigarette export business is one of the company's main operations, achieving a volume of 3,339.7 million cigarettes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [5] - The revenue from cigarette exports reached 1,573.6 million HKD in 2024, up 30.2% year-on-year, accounting for 12% of total revenue [5] - The gross profit from cigarette exports was 277.4 million HKD, reflecting a 69.1% year-on-year increase and representing 20% of total gross profit [5] - The growth in the company's cigarette business is attributed to expanding operational areas, introducing new products, and optimizing the product mix [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate total revenue of 143.96 billion HKD, 156.48 billion HKD, and 169.00 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 9.39 billion HKD, 10.44 billion HKD, and 11.71 billion HKD, with growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 12% [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 HKD, 1.51 HKD, and 1.69 HKD, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.74, 13.26, and 11.82 [6] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported total revenue of 13,074 million HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 28.41% in 2024 to 19.01% in 2027 [11] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 9,817 million HKD in 2024 to 13,524 million HKD in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is the only publicly listed tobacco entity within the China Tobacco system, tasked with integrating overseas assets. It has shown steady growth in performance since its listing in 2019, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 869 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, unique operating model, and significant potential for capital operations and international business expansion [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 10,726 million yuan - 2024: 12,107 million yuan - 2025E: 13,141 million yuan - 2026E: 14,231 million yuan - 2027E: 15,376 million yuan - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 44% for 2023, 13% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 543 million yuan - 2024: 791 million yuan - 2025E: 869 million yuan - 2026E: 998 million yuan - 2027E: 1,131 million yuan - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 62% for 2023, 46% for 2024, and 10% for 2025 [5][6]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a planned business model within the tobacco monopoly system, benefiting from a strong competitive barrier and stable profitability [6][19]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected as follows: - Leaf imports: 63% - Leaf exports: 16% - Cigarette exports: 12% - New tobacco products: 1% - Brazilian business: 8% - The gross profit contributions are 60% from leaf imports, 6% from leaf exports, 20% from cigarette exports, 1% from new tobacco products, and 13% from Brazilian business [6][19]. Capital Operations and International Expansion - The company is positioned as the designated platform for capital market operations and international business expansion for China Tobacco. It has substantial overseas asset reserves, indicating significant potential for global capital operations [6][7]. - The report draws parallels with Japan Tobacco's global expansion strategy, suggesting that the company could achieve similar valuation premiums through effective integration of overseas assets [9][19]. Key Assumptions and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates steady growth in leaf import volumes, with expected year-on-year increases of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - Cigarette export volumes are projected to grow by 15% in 2025 and 2026, and by 12% in 2027, driven by the recovery of global travel and market expansion [8]. - New tobacco product exports are expected to see a 15% increase annually from 2025 to 2027, despite a projected decrease in average prices [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through both organic growth and external collaboration, positioning itself as a key platform for capital operations and international business expansion under China Tobacco's high-quality development strategy [6][8]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 13.07 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [6]. - The company has shown robust growth in its import and export business, particularly in tobacco leaf and cigarette exports, with significant increases in both revenue and profit margins [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.84 billion HKD in 2023 to 17.21 billion HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 599 million HKD in 2023 to 1.23 billion HKD in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 14% in 2025 [6][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.87 HKD in 2023 to 1.77 HKD in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [6][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with a forecast of 28.4% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 24.6% by 2027 [8]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to rise from 60% in 2023 to 69.3% in 2025, indicating a potential increase in leverage [8]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 28.0 in 2023 to 13.6 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with both organic and external growth strategies being effectively implemented [5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13,074 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 853.74 million HKD, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 42.6% [6] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both import and export of tobacco products, with notable growth in various segments [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11,836.22 million HKD, Net Profit of 598.77 million HKD - 2024: Revenue of 13,074.24 million HKD, Net Profit of 853.74 million HKD - 2025E: Revenue of 14,590.45 million HKD, Net Profit of 965.40 million HKD - 2026E: Revenue of 15,989.09 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,124.04 million HKD - 2027E: Revenue of 17,346.28 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,287.66 million HKD [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.86 HKD by 2027 [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.54% in 2024 to 11.59% in 2027, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10] Business Segment Performance - Import Business: - Revenue from tobacco leaf imports is projected to be 8,254.25 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.17% [9] - Export Business: - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach 2,061.54 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.78% [9] - Cigarette export revenue is forecasted at 1,573.64 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.19% [9] - New Tobacco Products: - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected to be 135.18 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.00% [9] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 28.00 to 29.40 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 to 21 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The company expects net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, achieving a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase [2]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 10.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of higher-margin Brazilian business [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion in 2024, a 30.2% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 277 million, marking a 69.1% rise [3]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports improved to 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of self-operated channels [3]. Product Segmentation - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 84 million, up 85.8% [3]. - New tobacco product exports achieved a revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 7 million, reflecting a 23.2% growth [4]. - The Brazilian business segment reported a revenue of HKD 1.050 billion, a 37.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 184 million, up 30.2% [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.31 per share, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 37% and a dividend yield of 1.9% based on the current stock price [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% for the same periods [11][13]. - The estimated gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 11.57% by 2027 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, with a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase. The gross margin improved to 10.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion, a 30.2% increase, with gross profit rising by 69.1% to HKD 277 million, resulting in a gross margin of 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with gross profit soaring by 85.8% to HKD 84 million, leading to a gross margin of 4.1%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The new tobacco products export business recorded revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with gross profit of HKD 7 million, up 23.2%, and a gross margin of 5.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with projected revenues of HKD 13.14 billion in 2025, HKD 13.671 billion in 2026, and HKD 14.155 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% respectively [11][13]. - The net profit is projected to grow to HKD 960 million in 2025, HKD 1.021 billion in 2026, and HKD 1.076 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% respectively [11][13]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 29.2 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025, with a forecasted EPS of HKD 1.32 [14]. - The DCF valuation estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 20.607 billion, corresponding to a price of HKD 29.4 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK$13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK$13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK$8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK$1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK$135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$14.416 billion, HK$15.753 billion, and HK$17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$958 million, HK$1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]